.. 1
2000 2010 +43%+16%+15%+13% +11% +10%+8% +1% +0.4% 100.0 80.0 60.0 % 40.0 20.0 80.3 9.0 70.3 9.1 67.9 9.9 85 9.8 150.0 100.0 50.0 119.1 10.7 92.4 9.6 73.5 8.0 60.7 9.5 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 54.0 50.7 51.7 52.8 41.5 43.5 42.6 44.0 0.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 1995 2005 2010 2012 43.0 39.9 40.1 40.1 11.8 12.5 11.2 8.4 0.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 1995 2005 2010 2012 31.2 14.3 21.3 10.6 26.8 25.8 12.6 12.8 0.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 1995 2005 2010 2012 101.8 0.3 95.7 0.8 91.0 0.4 0.0 100.0 80.0 1995 2005 2010 2012 0.0 100.0 80.0 1995 2005 2010 2012 80.0 100.0 80.0 1995 2005 2010 87.3 0.5 78.5 75.0 0.8 1.1 60.0 60.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 14.6 20.4 18.0 17.9 12.1 18.2 15.5 15.3 1995 2005 2010 2012 40.0 20.0 0.0 19.9 19.4 19.5 15.3 15.3 15.1 6.0 0.6 1995 2005 2010 2012 IEA Energy Balance of OECD, Non OECD Countries 2012,2013OECD 2012OECD 2010 40.0 20.0 0.0 1995 2005 2010 3
2011. 0.6% 1.6% 4.4% 1.0% 16.9% 4.3 : 12.6 9.8% 4.5% 2.6% 11.1% 16.8% 0.9 : 15.9 75.5% 11.3% 3.2% 3.7% 19.2% 22.6% 40.0% 4.2% 3.4% 23.3% 4.0% 55.1% 22.0% 43.1% 2010,2011 4
2012 2.6% 1.8% 2.4% 0.03% 17.2 4.6% 27.8% 0.2% 10.3% 12.7% 2.9 : 7.4 24.5% 28.6% 0.9% 1.1% 8.5% 25.0% 71.4% 0.4 : 24.6 29.3% 6.6% 23.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 8.4 1.2% 27.6% 0.7 :26.9 LNG 42.5% 17.1% 5
http://www.oecd.org/tad/xcred/cre crc current english rev1.pdf 7
4.7 1.9 5.2 33.0 2.9 10.7 UAE 21.8 7.6. 3.7 8
9.5 5.5 4.6 17.9 UAE 6.3 16.7. 7.1 6.8 18.2 35.9 9
7.5 1.5 2.3 0 17.0 70.5 10
29 35 6 13 7 11
2011 (28,000) 2011 (31,000) 2011 (2,000) 2005 (7,000) 2001 (38,000) 1948 NRA 1969 (41,000) 2006 (53,000) 19963,658,000) 2001 (38,000) 2004 (4,000) THE MILITARY BALANCE 2013 12
500 US bn 350 450 2 300 400 350 250 NATO Europe 300 2 293 0 200 250 200 12 120 189 150 150 Asia (excludes Australia and New Zealand) 150 100 50 0 25 17 21 19 16 7 30 14 23 11 23 10 104 69 80 55 2007 2008 2011 2012 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 IMB Annual Report 2007,2008,2011,2012 THE MILITARY BALANCE 2013 13
20112012 Oil price $85.30 EU $85.81 $95.52 A $96.80 $96.92 $99.79 $100.99 $101.34 $102.96 90 Velayat-90 $102.96 $101.31 2010 4 2011 3 2010 4,10 $99.58 $98.78 $96.91 $92.97 $95.47 $91.85 14
15
kw 102.1 21 LNG 4.75 20 LNG 95 7.75 20 155 11.75 20 235 IEA 253 kw 175 54 420 kw 16
16,308 cf LNG, 80 2.3% 90 2.6% 90 2.6% 130 3.8% 750 21.7% 130 3.8% 260 7.5% 3450 270 7.8% 320 9.3% 750 21.7% 580 16.8% 245 3.4% 285 3.9% 390 5.3% 437 6.0% 1535 21.0% 545 7.5% 7299 573 7.9% 1115 15.3% 665 9.1% 802 11.0% 707 9.7% 10 78.3% 10 79% EIA :Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources 18
EIA :Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources 19
10 5 2006 2011 LNG 1.6 LNG 2 LNG2020 EIA AEO2013 LNG 20083,000 20117,700 LNG LNG LNG LNG LNG 25 18.6$/MMBTU 100 150 20 価 JCC 100 2005 LNG 価 15 16.4$/MMBTU 3.7$/MMBTU 50 0 2013 0 LNG100 t 50 40.00 trillion cubic feet 35.00 30.00 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2011 25.00 2011 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 (5.00) (10.00) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 EIA Annual Energy Outlook2013Early Release 2011 2009 2005 20
EIA 2013 3 20 1995 [2012200 b/d 2020280 b/d] [ 2012320 b/d 2030670 b/d] B/D B/D 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 978 500 921 548 54 82 849 647 200 EIA 2008 2010 2012 2020 727 280 100 80 60 40 92 41 2008 2012 20 12 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 10% 21% 10% 10% 10% 21% 21% 23% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EIA :EIA Annual Energy Outlook2013 31 35% 31% 31% 28% 24% 10% 23% 34% 37% 37% 39% 43% 21
// 960(2 ) 945(3 ) () 2000 1500 1000 500 1717 455 316 0 PwC Shale gas Reshaping the US chemicals industry 22
9 EIA 2 4 10 5 ( 2013 7 16 23
B/D 2000 1800 1600 4 2 3 2 3 1400 1200 1000 800 2 3 51 3 59 66 71 600 400 18 16 15 200 0 24 18 14 10 2000 1,445 B/D 2005 1,560 B/D 2008 1,639 B/D 2012 1,740 B/D Annual Statistical Bulletin2000~2013 24
.
2012 9 GW 2011 2030 2030 2013 1 1 429 3 9,000 kw 76 7,800 kw 97 1 kw 26
IAEA 56 27
28
, 2006 9 29
30
1953 1957 1970 1974 ATOMS for peace IAEA 1977 1977 1977 INFCE 1980 1990 2000 2009 4 2011 12 31
.
1990 IEA Energy Balance of OECD, Non OECD Countries 2012,2013OECD 2012OECD 2010 33
2006 LNG 2006 2020EIA AEO2013 IEA Energy Balance of OECD, Non OECD Countries 2012OECD 2012OECD 2010 34
1990 2000 IEA Energy Balance of OECD, Non OECD Countries 2012OECD 2012OECD 2010 35
36
37
1.1mbd 0.3mbd) 2.7mbd 1.7mbd ( 2.6mbd 2.9mbd 2012~2018 million barrels per day) IEA Medium-Term Market Report 2013 2.7mbd 1.7mbd 38