7 2010 11 7 SPDC USDP 1990 NLD USDP USDP 79% 77% SPDC USDP 1 SPDC 2 2011 1 31 3 1 2 2008 3 2 2005 royal abode 3 2008
96 4 USDP 2 4 SPDC 3 30 SPDC 85% 3 1 5 6 SPDC 7 UCSB 8 9 SPDC 2 2010 3 30 SPDC 10 4 5 Order No. 4/2011, New Light of Myanmar NLM), 31 March 2011, p. 9. 3 6 1 6 President Office Order No. 9/2011, NLM, 31 March 2011, p. 10. 7 Order No. 3/2011, NLM, 31 March 2011, p. 9. 8 Order No. 6/2011 and Order No. 7/2011 respectively, NLM, 31 March 2011, p. 9. 9 Order No. 2/2011 and Order No. 1/2011 respectively, NLM, 31 March 2011, p. 8. 10 SPDC Notification No. 5/2011 to 8/2011, NLM, 31 March 2011, p. 8.
97 11 1 SPDC 2014 ASEAN 2011 3 31 12 13 14 11 2011 6 8 10 34 7 27 http://moemaka.blogspot.com/2011/10/moemaka-order-of-thein-sein-aka-order.html. 12 NLM, 1 April 2011. 13 2 2011 5 14,578 10 6,359 55 220 14 2011 9 5 MNHRC
98 NLD NLD 15 16 17 2 MDS 2010 3 1988 9 MDS 20 1 SPDC 1 1 15 2011 8 19 2011 16 2011 11 6 2014 ASEAN ASEAN 17 EU 2011 12
99 1 1988 9 1997 11 2011 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 OTS 6 OTS 9 n.a. OTS 6 OTS 9 OTS 10 OTS 8 n.a. n.a. OTS 6 DSA 1 n.a. OTS 28 DSA 3 * OTS 22 -- n.a. n.a. DSA 19 DSA 22 DSA 20 OTS 56 DSA 18 OTS 61 DSA 20 DSA 22 OTS 56 n.a. n.a. -- n.a. n.a. -- OTS 25 OTS 25 DSA 22 n.a.= --= OTS= DSA= * 2001 Maung Aung Myo. Building the Tatmadaw: Myanmar Armed Forces Since 1948 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2009) 3 MDS MDS
100 MDS MDS 25% 18 MDS 19 3 20 18 Tin Maung Maung Than, Tatmadaw in Transition: Dealing with Internal Conflict, in V.R. Raghavan ed., Internal Conflict in Myanmar: Transnational Consequences (New Delhi: Vij Books, 2011), pp. 13-37. 19 speech in NLM, 31 March 2011. 20 2
101 SPDC MDS 21 1948 22 MDS NTS 23 SPDC MDS MDS MDS 21 Hseng Khio Fah, Chinese made military trucks arriving at border raises question, Shan Herald Agency for News, 30 June 2011, at http://www.shanland.org/; Myanmar military will attend military course in Malaysia, Radio Free Asia (Burmese), 22 October 2011 at http://www.rfa.org/burmese/ Francis Wade, Russia closing deal over 20 fighter jets, Democratic Voice of Burma, 4 August 2011, in online newsgroup BurmaNet News, 4 August 2011. 22 Tin Maung Maung Than, op. cit., pp. 14-16. The speech of General Min Aung Hlaing at passing out parade of the 54th intake of the Defence Service Academy on 9 December 2011, reported in NLM, 10 December 2011. 23
102 CFG2011 NDSC NDSC NDSC 2 2 MDS 11 24 4 BGF 25 MDS CFG SPDC CFG 2010 2011 6 MDS KIO KIA CFG 24 1 5 5 NDSC 25 MDS SPDC 2009 CFG BGF BGF BGF CFG MDS
103 MDS 1994 2 MDS KIA SSA-S CFG KIA 1 IDP CFG BGF CFG DKBA 1 BGF 8 18 2. 1 3. 26 CFG UNFC 12 2011 26 Union Government Announcement No. 1/2011, NLM, 19 August 2011.
104 27 2 2 BGF 2008 NDAA-ESS 4 9 10 10 12 28 DKBA 12 29 CFG 1996 1 11 27 Saw Yan Naing, Ethnic armies reject piecemeal peace talks, Irrawaddy online, 19 August 2011, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21930. UNFC 9 2 KIO CFG 1 KNPP 1 NMSP CFG 1 CFG PNLO CFG ANC CFG CNF CFG SSPP CFG 28 2011 12 28 NLM, 29 December 2011. 2011 12 30 NLM, 30 December 2011. 29 Min Thet, Burmese government and Kalo Htoo Baw sign peace agreement, Mizzima News, 13 December 2011 online at http://bnionline.net/index.php/news/mizzima/12274- burmese-government-...
105 12 2 RCSS 30 KNU UNFC 12 10 MDS KIA KIA MDS 31 UNFC 12 12 FUA 32 2012 MDS MDS 5 MDS NTS CFG CFG 30 SSA: Technicalities of ceasefire still need to be worked out, S.H.A.N./ Independent Mon News Agency, online at http://bnionline.net/index.php/news/imna/12263-ssa-... 31 Ba Kaung, Stop Offensive President s Ceasefire Order Fails to Stop Offensive, Irawaddy online, 28 December 2011, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/print_article.php?art_id+22741. 32 UNFC to form Union Army at last, S.H.A.N., online, 3 December 2011 at http://bnionline.net/index.php/news/shan/12207-unfc-...
106 MDS 33 UNODC 2011 14% 15% 34 MDS 6 MDS 35 2008 11 ITLOS 2011 3 33 Chemists displaced by war moving east, S.H.A.N. News, 17 February 2012, online at www.bnionline.net/index.php/news/shan/12653-... 34 5% 48% UNODC, South-East Opium Survey 2011: Lao PDR, Myanmar, Vienna, UNODC, n.d., p. 41. 35 Thein Swe, Myanmar, in Regional Outlook, Southeast Asia 2012-2013 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2012), p. 169.
107 36 MDS 7 2010 6 IAEA 37 2008 11 38 36 Maung Aye, High-level Myanmar military delegation arrives in Bangladesh for the third time in a year (in Myanmar), Narinjara News, 13 December 2011, at www.narinaja.com/ detailsbur.asp?id=3659 1,768 Rohingya repatriated to Burma from Bangladesh in 2011, Kaladan News, 3 January 2012, at www.bnionline.net/index.php/newskaladan/12402-1768- rohingya-repatriated-to-burma=... 37 Stephen Engelberg, Experts, intelligence agencies question a defector s claims about Burma s nuclear ambitions, knoxnews.com, 14 November 2010, www.knoxnews.com/news/2010/nov/14/experts-intelligence-agencies-question-... Simon Roughneen, Nuclear Confusion, Irrawaddy, 27 October 2010, online at www.irrawaddy.org/print_article.php?art_id=19836; Ashish Kumar Sen, IAEA seeks permission from Myanmar for nuke inspectors to visit, Washington Times, 14 January 2011, in BurmaNet News, 14 January 2011. 38 Saw Yan Naing, Shwe Mann denies nuclear program, Irrawaddy, 7 December 2011, in BurmaNet News, 7 December 2011.
108 39 MDS 40 2011 12 41 11 MDS CFG MDS MDS NDSC 1988 9 2011 3 39 No nuclear trade with N Korea, Agence France Presse, 31 January 2012, in BurmaNet News, 31 January 2012. 40 North Korea: Clinton, Global Security Network online newsgroup, 1 December 2011; and Joshua Kurlantzick, North Korea and Kim Jong-il: The Myanmar Element, Council on Foreign Relations, 20 December 2011, in BurmaNet News, 20 December 2011. 41 Ibid.
109 MDS MDS