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4 98 : Susanne Oxenstierna and Jakob Hedenskog (2012) Energistrategi [Energy Strategy], Chapter 7 in Carolina Vendil Pallin, ed. (2012) Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv 2011 [Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective], FOI R SE, March 2012, p % IEA IEA 2010 NPS NPS , MtoeEU BRIC BRIC IEA 2020 NPS 7-3

5 GDP 0.42kg kg 0.20kg 2 13 IFC 45% % Rossiiskoe agentstvo energetiki % 17 IEA NPS IEA NPS NPS NPS

6 100 3, IEA NPS 3,000 2,500 2,000 EU-27 1,500 1, : Susanne Oxenstierna and Jakob Hedenskog (2012) Energistrategi [Energy Strategy], Chapter 7 in Carolina Vendil Pallin, ed. (2012) Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv 2011 [Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective], FOI R SE, March 2012, p. 136.

7 , ,050 1, IEA, NPS : Susanne Oxenstierna and Jakob Hedenskog (2012) Energistrategi [Energy Strategy], Chapter 7 in Carolina Vendil Pallin, ed. (2012) Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv 2011 [Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective], FOI R SE, March 2012, p. 139.

8 102 10% 16% GDP 4% % % 84 IEA NPS % % 10

9 ,000 13% % % % , , % BPS 2 7-4

10 104 BPS BPS-2 ESPO ESPO ESPO 1, CPC CPC

11 BPS BPS-2 5% ESPO 7-6 BPS ,

12 BPS-2 BPS Midia : Susanne Oxenstierna and Jakob Hedenskog (2012) Energistrategi [Energy Strategy], Chapter 7 in Carolina Vendil Pallin, ed. (2012) Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv 2011 [Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective], FOI R SE, March 2012, p ,890 m 3 80% %

13 % % % 25% 8,340 9,060 m 3 35% 12% 15 20% % % 5,900 m % % % % % 33

14 m 3 34 CIS Midia : Susanne Oxenstierna and Jakob Hedenskog (2012) Energistrategi [Energy Strategy], Chapter 7 in Carolina Vendil Pallin, ed. (2012) Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv 2011 [Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective], FOI R SE, March 2012, p. 136.

15 EU LNG LNG LNG LNG LNG LNG % 70% 50% EU 36 EU

16 110 EU EU % % 39

17 Tympuchikanskoye = Sobinskoye Dulisminskoye ESPO-1 Baikouquan ESPO-2 : Susanne Oxenstierna and Jakob Hedenskog (2012) Energistrategi [Energy Strategy], Chapter 7 in Carolina Vendil Pallin, ed. (2012) Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv 2011 [Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective], FOI R SE, March 2012, p % LNG

18 112 LNG ESPO IEA LNG

19 GDP Susanne Oxenstierna and Jakob Hedenskog (2012), Energistrategi [Energy Strategy], Chapter 7 in Carolina Vendil Pallin, ed. (2012) Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv 2011 [Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective], FOI-R SE, March 2012 B-G FOI 2 Energy Strategy (2009) Energeticheskaia strategiia Rossii na period do 2030 godu [Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030] adopted by the Russian government on 13 November 2009, minenergo.gov.ru/activity/energostrategy/strategiya/energostrategiya-2030.doc (retrieved February 2010). 3 Russia 2020 (2008) Kontseptsiia dolgosrochnogo sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiia Rossiskoi Federatsii, [Russia s long-term strategy for economic and social development]. Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

20 114 4 Oxenstierna, Susanne (2010) Russia s Nuclear Energy Expansion, FOI-R SE, Stockholm, December, pp Oxenstierna, Susanne (2009), The Russian Economy 2009: Steep Decline despite Crisis management, FOI-R SE, Stockholm, December. 6 Oxenstierna (2010) p Law on energy saving and improving energy efficiency (2009) FZ 261 Ob energosberezhenii i o povyshenii energeticheskoi effektivnosti i o vnesenii izmenenii v otdelnye zakonodatelnye akty RF, adopted on 18 November Energy Strategy (2009) p Security Strategy (2009) Strategiia Natsionalnoi Bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii do 2020 goda [National Security Strategy of Russian Federation up to 2020], adopted by presidential decree on 12 May Haas, Marcel (2009) Medvedev s security policy: A provisional assessment, Russian analytical digest, No. 62, 18 June Leijonhielm, Jan et al. (2009) Rysk military förmåga i ett tioårsåerspektiv [Russia s Military Capability in a Ten-year Perspective: Ambitions and challenges in 2008], pp. 97; Oxenstierna, Susanne and Hedenskog, p. 321, Annex figure A IFC & Worldbank (2009) Energy Efficiency in Russia. Untapped Reserves, on the Internet: Final_EE_report_engl.pdf (retrieved 6 December 2011), p Ibid. 15 Law on energy saving (2009). 16 Worldbank (2010) Russian energy efficiency financing project (PID) AB6196, on the Internet: (retrieved 28 March 2011). 17 Energy Strategy (2009), Annex 2 p Ibid., Annex 4 pp BP (2011) BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011, p. 8, on the Internet: bp.com/statisticalreview (retrieved 3 December 2011). 20 EIA (2010), on the Internet: (retrieved 10 March 2011); and Vatansever, Adnan (2010) Russian Oil Exports-Economic Rationale versus Strategic Gains, Carnegie Papers, No. 116, December, p Sagers, Mattew (2006) The Regional Dimension of Russian Oil Production: Is Sustained recovery in Prospect?, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol. 47, No. 5, p BP (2011). 23 Energy Strategy (2009) Annex 4, p Ibid., p Oxenstierna and Hedenskog (2012) p Ibid. 27 Ibid., p Energy Strategy (2009) Annex Ibid. 31 BP (2011) p Energy Strategy (2009) Annex Ibid.

21 Henderson, James (2010) Non-Gazprom Gasproducers in Russia, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, pp Oxenstierna and Hedenskog (2012) pp EU-Russia energy relations, on the Internet: russia_en.htm (retrieved 14 October 2011). 37 Oxenstierna and Hedenskog (2012) p Ibid., pp Ibid. 40 Oxenstierna (2010) p Oxenstierna & Hedenskog (2012) p Mau, Vladimir (2010) The State and Creation of a Market Economy in Russia in Korhonen, Ilka and Solanko, Laura (eds) From Soviet Plans to Russian Reality (Helsinki, WSOYpro OY).

22

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