GDP 7 OFHEO 2005 3 272.89 1980 100 12.0 5 55.3 3 2 1 1979 2004 2 6 2000 68 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 90 2.75 2005 3.4 8.0% 1 6.0% 4.0% 30.3 2.0% DC 20 0.0% OFHEOHouse Price Index 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 The Housing Market Frenzied froth, The Economist May 28 th 2005 1
5 20 2005 1 10% 5 2 1997 2005 3 OFHEO Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight ODPM Office of the Deputy Prime Minister's INSEE (2004 ) PCEOECDEconomic Outlook 77 2000 15.7 01 1.2 02 04 15 04 2
2001 03 18 04 05 1997 98 2002 0204 11.8 16.9 2 2002 2004 2005 2 2005 3
4 OFHEO ODPM INSEE 2004 90 2004 5 2004 5 OFHEO ODPM INSEE 4
2 80 6 CPI MBA FRB INSEE OECD 15 12 5 2 3 4 1 3 2 5
60 20 2001 2004 FF 6.5 04 05 6 80 90 80 1975 HUD GSEs 80 10 MBSMortgage Backed Securities 90 100 10 1997 the Taxpayer Relief Act 1997 5 2 50 FRB 2005 6 1 12.8 7 9,615 6 10.8 6
11 1,420 7 7 10 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 10 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 FRBFlow of Funds Accounts of the United States 12.1 10 3.5 SNL 2005 6 100 3,154 2 100 2004 1.45 2002 1.04 2 4 FRB 2005 9 Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt On One-to-Four-Family Residences 5 4 2005 8 19 5 Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt On One-to-Four-Family Residences Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2005-41), Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. 7
2004 5,995 36.4 2000 3 6.92 1993 10 8 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 FRB 30 9 I/O I/O Interest Only Loan 10 15 Negative Amortization I/O 2004 30 FRB 2005 7 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices 6 6 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/ 8
54 FRB I/O 1 12.2 42.9 11 16.7 1 20.9 7 FRB 2005 10 8 1997 80 10 1 11 44.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 11 15 6.3% 16 25 10.4% 25 0.0% 5 41.7% 42.9% 510 41.7% FRBSenior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending PracticesJuly 2005 OCC 2005 7 9 3 7 NAR 2004 23 13 8 Remarks by Governor Susan Schmidt Bies, At the National Bankers Association Annual Convention, Beverly Hills, California, October 12, 2005 9 2005 Survey of Credit Underwriting Practices, National Credit Committee 9
1 28 10 11 12 1 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13 10 30 26 35 41 33 62 75 60 62 53 59 56 28 10 12 12 3 8 13 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 OCC Survey of Credit Underwriting Practices OCC 30 40 I/O OCC FRB 2005 7 OCC 2005 5 10 10 May 3, 2005 OCC 2005-18, Accounting and Reporting for Mortgage Loan Commitments: Interagency Advisory on Accounting and Reporting for Commitments to Originate and Sell Mortgage Loans 10
10 8 7,674 20 331 26.8 32.9 5 11 3.3 8 2005 6,419 13 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 65.6% 67.1% 68.8% 69.2% 70.5% 67.9% 65.1% (10 ) 20,000 61.5% 62.7% 61.8% 60.7% 18,000 16,000 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 26.8% 25.7% 24.4% 24.3% 23.5% 26.2% 22.1% 23.2% 19.1% 17.4% 25.7% 22.7% 28.1% 19.6% 31.3% 30.7% 31.8% 32.9% 15.7% 17.5% 17.0% 16.3% 14,000 12,000 10,000 0.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Q2 8,000 FRBFlow of Funds Accounts of the United States 10 12,000 14 10 1,200 10,000 1,000 8,000 800 6,000 600 4,000 400 2,000 200 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 FRBFlow of Funds Accounts of the United States 11
2004 6,681 6,176 2005 3 79 1,958 8,000-1,137-1,249-1,409 15 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0-1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000-7,000-8,000-9,000-2,141-3,001-4,160-3,895-4,752-5,197-6,681-8,000 Balance of Payments (International Transactions) 11 11 International Transaction Account Data http://www.bea.gov/bea/international/bp_web/simple.cfm?anon=71&table_id=1&area_id=3 12
2005 2 3,931 12 1,957 2 16 400 10 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 National Economic Account 13 Gross Domestic Investment 2 4,535 2005 2 Gross Saving 1 6,691 7,844 14 32 FRB Flows of Funds Accounts of the United States 2002 2004 4,123 2005 3,186 12 2005 46 1,957 3,931 2,508 536 13 http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/tableview.asp#mid 14 13
17 18 10 400.0 35% 30% 200.0 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0.0-200.0-400.0-600.0-800.0 1995-I 1996-I 1997-I 1998-I 1999-I 2000-I 2001-I 2002-I 2003-I 2004-I 2005-I -1000.0 National Economic Account 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 FRBFlows of Funds Accounts of the United States 2006 2 FRB FRB 2005 3 15 1996 2004 5,457 4,418 1,000 4,168 15 The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit, Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, At the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond, Virginia, March 10, 2005 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200503102/default.htm JETRO 2005 8 14
19 1996 2004 10-800 -600-400 -200 0 200 400 IMF 1996 2004 19962000 2000 2 19962000 2000 3 2003 15
16 1 1983-2000 17 2004 13.4 2001 2 90 GDP 2 2001 3 GDP 1990 9 3 NIES GDP 5 ASEAN 4 10 4 16 Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley 2006 1 19 16
2004 20 350 10 300 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Foreign direct investment in the U.S. 12004 17 2004 9,158 2002 2003 2 2004 6,681 182004 2,468 2,441 17 http://www.treas.gov/tic/index.html UFJ 2005 3 18 OPEC OPEC Tax Haven 17
21 1,000 10 800 600 400 200 0-200 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2005 8 3,568 4 1,664 47 805 23 19 2,325 533 23 444 19 164 7 357 15 4 3,008 2 20 258 4 2000 15 2003 2004 2,031 1,529 203 2,113 2 2005 7 2 348 3 2 6,833 2000 31.3 33.6 19 GSE 20 Tax Haven Knowledge-basehttp://hunter.main.jp/IPE/OffshoreFinannceCenter.shtm 18
2,421 3 1,600 2004 7 633 1 2.5 22 2,500 10 2,000 1,885 2,035 1,500 1,000 1,015 1,040 1,239 1,528 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 23 70 60 2 30 2005 50 12 1 61.0 40 IMF 2005 30 4,000 20 15 10 1996 11 2004 1,164 0 NYMEX 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 19
20 1 1995 100 2005 9 133.8 227.1 GDP 2000 0.8 25 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 1995.01 1995.06 1995.11 1996.04 1996.09 1997.02 1997.07 1997.12 1998.05 1998.10 1999.03 1999.08 2000.01 2000.06 2000.11 2001.04 2001.09 2002.02 2002.07 2002.12 2003.05 2003.10 2004.03 2004.08 2005.01 2005.06 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% K FRBOFHEO 24 1995 100 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0 1995.01 1995.10 1996.07 1997.04 1998.01 1998.10 1999.07 2000.04 2001.01 2001.10 2002.07 2003.04 2004.01 2004.10 2005.07 FRB
a. b. c. FRB 2005 9 International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates 21 FRB Francis E. Warnock Veronica Warnock 1984 1 2005 5 21 10 2004 4 2005 5 1 10 1.5 GDP 2 0.95 2002 1 2005 3 1 3,000 IT FRB 21 Francis E. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac Warnock International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 840, September 2005 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/840/ifdp840.pdf) 21
26 30% 10 1,400 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700-15% 600 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 27 2000 IT 2001 12000 11000 2003 10000 9000 2006 1 10,900 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 GDP 2004 4 3 2 2005 1 2004 5.7 2 8 2 1995 2000 2005 22
13.0% 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% GDP 1995-I 1996-I 1997-I 28 GDP GDP 1998-I 1999-I 2000-I 2001-I 2002-I 2003-I 2004-I 2005-I 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 11 2,230 4.4 11.9 859 19.6 22.8 80 ISM 22 50 ISM 2005 5 51.4 05 9 60 FRB 05 9 5 4,744 5.4 5 23 1000 2003 05 7-9 30 2000 38 1989 2002 22 ISMInstitute of Supply Management ISM 50 23 FRB Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States 23
29 25.0 ISM 81.0 70.0 20.0 80.0 65.0 15.0 79.0 60.0 10.0 78.0 55.0 5.0 77.0 50.0 0.0 76.0 45.0-5.0 75.0 40.0-10.0 74.0 35.0-15.0 03.11 04.3 04.7 04.11 05.3 05.7 05.11 73.0 03.10 04.3 04.8 05.1 05.6 05.11 30.0 03.12 04.4 04.8 04.12 05.4 05.8 05.12 FRB 2005 9 CBO 10 7001,300 180310 170330 160320 130250 2005 7-9 GDP 3.8 3.43.5 CBO GDP 2005 0.5 2006 0.20.5 0.40.6 30 GDP CBOMacroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita 24
2004 2005 2005 8 6 SAFETEA-LU 2 TEA-21 31.4 24 1946 1964 2005 9 2005 11 623 623 170 64 6,300 23 2,500 16 6 3 31 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 10 GDP 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-400 -5.0-500 -6.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 24 4.3 SAFETEA-LU 25
2006 CBO 2004 2005 16.8 2005 5 4.95.1 9 32 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 GDP 7 2005 3 4.1 67 4 2005 3 26
10 2,597 9 428 9 1,757 1,329 1.5 25 2 33 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 26 25 Personal Income and Its Disposition 26 1 2. 27
2006 6 90 2003 34 34 FRB 27 27 44 5.2 28
SAFETEA-LU 29
5 2 ULIUrban Land Institute 60 DC MCI DC NIH FDA IT, DC AOLMCIDominion Semiconductor IT 300 4 10 70 VA 10 1 03 1 1 50 20 DC 30
Loudoun County Howard County Stafford County Spotsyhrania County Coldwell Banker Real Estate (www.coldwellbanker.com) 198 31
+/2 DC VA Mclean 558,650 5,865 MD Bethesda 491,440 5,160 1,313,750 NYC NJ Ridgewood 753,000 50 36 2004 32
2005 8 American Community Characteristics:2004 100 100 00 395,000 01 467,000 02 595,000 03 739,000 100 2 05 2 120 03 5 5 65 38% 11% 2 Ranch 10 AP 90 100 42 2 95 OFHEO9 05 2 13.4% 1979 3.2 33
37 OFHEO FRB 2005 3 FRB 10 8 7,674 20 331 26.8% 32.9% 3.3 8 05 9 FRB Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt on One-to-Four-Family Residences HEL 2004 5,995 3 6.4% 2000 3 6.92% 93 10 FRB 05 6 1 12.8% 7 9,615 6 10.8% 11 1,420 7 HEL 12.1% 10 3.5 SNL 05 6 100 HEL 3,154 2 34
100 04 1.45 02 1.04 2 30 I/O Interest Only Loan: 10 15 Negative Amortization I/O 05 7 OCC( ) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 FRB RemodelingImprovement Home Depot 35
Mediamark Research 2002 10,523 2,885 14,776 3,292 100 100 2003 1,160 12 7,600 1960 ( 43 ) 405 35% 45~54 35~44 55~64 30 1990 634 95 790 2000 1,060 2005 39 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1989 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 () U.S. Census Bureau 1 107 2004 10 36