1 (1997) (1997) 1974:Q3 1994:Q3 (i) (ii) ( ) ( ) 1 (iii) ( ( 1999 ) ( ) ( ) 1 ( ) ( 1995,pp.218 223 ) 1
2 ) (i) (ii) / (iii) ( ) (i ii) 1 2 1 ( ) 3 ( ) 2, 3 Dunning(1979) ( ) 1 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) (,p.218) ( ) (1997)
3 1 3 2 1970 1980 3 3, 2,3 2 3 ( 2) 4 ( 3) 2 2.1 ( ) H F ( 2, 3) ( H ) 2 (1998, p.26)
4 ( F ) Q H Q X (Q p = Q H + Q X ) 3 4 H 5 ( ) ( ) F ( ) H ( 2, 3) ( 100 ) 6 (1996,pp.110-112) 3 ( intra-firm trade ) 20 40% R&D (.) (1995, pp.253 254) 4 (1995) 5 Kawai(1994, Tables 7 and 8,pp.38-39) 1987-1994 Kawai(Figure 1) 1987-1991 ( ) 70% 60% 70%( 40% ) 60% ( 40% ) 6 (1995, pp.42-47)
5 ( ) 100 F H ẽ µ e σ e H F 7 2.2 p H ( ) πp H = P H Q p TCp H. (1) P H TC H (a generalized Cobb-Douglass 7 2.2 (1995)
6 type) Q p = θ p x ωp 1p x1/2 ωp 2p. (2) 0 <ω p < 1 2 ( ) x 1p x 2p (the totalproduct) (the distribution parameters) ω p 1 ω p (0 <ω p < 1) θ p (an efficiency parameter an indicator of the state of technology) p θ p 2 TC H p = c H p Q 2 p. (3) r 1p r 2p c H p = 1 2 [ θ p ω ωp p r ωp 1p r1/2 ωp 2p (1/2 ω p ) 1/2 ωp ] 2. (4) (4) c p ( ) θ p c p p ( ) ce E[U( π H global)] = µ π a 2 σ2 π. (5) a - ( ) µ π E[ π global H ] σπ 2 Var[ π global]. H
7 p (1) µ π = πp H (5) ce = πp H. (6) (7) ce [0] max Q p ce (7) Q [0] p = P H 2c H p. (8) ce [0] = (P H ) 2 4c H p (9) = 1 2 P H Q [0] p. (10) ce [0], 2 ce [1], ce [2] 3 ( 2) ( ) 2( ) ( ) ( ce [i] ce [0] ) i 0 (i =1, 2)
8 3.1 1 8 1 ( ) (, 3 ) 9 2 ( ) ( ) F ( ) H 3.1.1 ( ) ( ) a. p ce ( ) H ( ) π p H = P H Q H +ẽpx F Q X TCp H XCp H. (11) 8 (1995,pp.20-22) 9 (1995)
9 Q p = Q H + Q X TCp H (3) XCH p ( ) XC H p = c H XQ X. (12) c H X ( ) ( ) ( ) c H X (θ p) c H X < 0 (13) XCp H ( c H X ) ( ) ( ) 3( )
10 ce (5) µ π = P H Q H TCp H XC p H + µ epx F Q X (14) σπ 2 =(PX F Q X ) 2 σe 2. (15) ce [1] max Q H,Q X ce (16) Q [1] p Q [1] H = Q[1] H + Q[1] X = P H 2c H p = P H 2c H p (17) Q [1] X (18) Q [1] X = Z a(σ e PX F ) 2. (19) 1/a H ( ) 10 Z = µ e PX F P H c H X Z >0 11 (13) Z>0 ( ) ( ) (18) (19) P H Z = (20) a(σ e PX F ) 2 2c H p µ e (19) 12 10 (19) 11 Z<0 Z =0 12 2 3 µ e µ e
11 (17)-(19) (16) ce [1] = (P H ) 2 = 1 2 4c H p + 1 ( ) 2 Z (21) 2a σ e PX F ( P H Q [1] H + µ epx F Q [1] X ch XQ [1] X ). (22) (21) XCp H 2 2 Q [1] X = µ epx F P H c H X + a(σ epx F ) 2 (23) (19) c H X (ch X ) (21) ce [1] = (P H ) 2 4c H p + 1 2a ( ) µe PX F P H 2. (24) c H X + σ epx F XCp H [ ] ch X [ ] ( ) 2 2 b. (21) (9)
12 ce [1] ce [0] = 1 ( ) 2 { } Z (i) > 0 2a σ e PX F (i i) = { } if µ e PX F (i-a) >, (i-b) < P H + c H X(θ p ). (25) = ( ) (i-a) (i ) (19) > 0 13 Q [1] X (ii) ( ) (25) / (19) Q [1] X =0 ( ) ( ) c. ( 1970 1980 ) (25) (i-a) (i ) ( ) ( 1980 ) 13 (i-b) ( ) (i) (19)
13 3.1.2 ( ) a. ce = π H p = P H Q H + PX H Q X TC H p XC H p. (26) ( ) XCp H 2 XCp H = c H XQ 2 X. (27) ( ) Q [1] p = Q [1] H + Q[1] X = P H (28) 2c H p Q [1] H Q [1] X = P H 2c H p ce [1] = (P H ) 2 4c H p Q [1] X (29) = PX H P H 2c H. (30) X + (PXH P H ) 2 4c H. (31) X (24) XC H p c H X b. (31) (9) { } ce [1] ce [0] = (PX H P H ) 2 (i) > 4c H 0 X (i i) =
14 { } if PX H (i-a) >, (i-b) < P H. (32) = (i-a) (.) ( ) XCp H [ ] c H X [ ] 2 3.2 2 ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) 3.2.1 2 2 1 2 1 2a ( ) 2b ( )
15 a. 1 p s s p p s [ ] ( ) θ p,θ s [θp,θ s ] θ p (s p ) θ p = θ p. (33) θ s >θ s. (34) p M p θ p /θ s M p p M p (θ p /θ s ) M p > 0 (35) p s p p s p ( ) ICp H ICH p [M p(θ p /θ s )] 14 IC H p > 0. (36) 14 (1992, p.47)
16 2a p H ( ) (1) π H p = P H Q p TC H p IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )]. (37) s F ( ) π F s = P F Q s TC F s. (38) s TCs F p (2)-(4) s H F (34) θs (4) (34) 15 c F s = cf s (θ s ). (39) c F s (θ s) <c F s (θ s ). (40) s p s p s 100 p H (37) (38) π global H = πp H +ẽπ F s = P H Q p TCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )]+ẽ(p F Q s TCs F ). (41) ce (5) µ π = P H Q p TCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + µ e (P F Q s TCs F ) (42) σπ 2 =(P F Q s TCs F ) 2 σe 2. (43) 15 (1996,p.111) (40)
17 ( ) ( ) ce [2] max ce (44) Q p,q s Q [2] p Q [2] s = P H 2c H p. (45) = P F. (46) 2c F s Q [2] s Q s 2 (P F ) 2 4c F s µ e aσ 2 e =0; s TR F s [2] = P F Q [2] s (46) 1 [2] TRF s = µ e 2 aσe 2 (47) 16 TR F s [2] ( ) (45) (46) (44) ce [2] = (P H ) 2 4c H p 16 TR F [2] s =2TC F [2] s. IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )] + 1 4 µ etr F [2] s (48) = 1 2 P H Q [2] p IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )] + 1 4 µ etr F [2] s. (49)
18 b. 2b (48) (9) (i ) > < ce [2] ce [0] 1 (i i) = 0ifICH p [M p (θ p /θ s )] = 4 µ etr F s [2]. (50) (iii) < > 1 (50) p s s 17 (46) µ e Q [2] s (50) 3.2.2 (1970 1980 ) 2 1 2 17 3( ) (50) 1/4 (µ etr F s [2] )
19 (50) b, c 3 a. 1970 1980 ( ) 5 (1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-90 1991-94 ) 2 22% 30% ( 1 ) 1: ( ) a 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 % % % % % 1,998 100.0 3,828 100.0 7,926 100.0 36,493 100.0 41,942 100.0 458 22.9 1,038 27.1 2,456 31.0 17,505 48.0 18,739 44.7 376 18.8 342 8.9 1,051 13.3 7,180 19.7 8,979 21.4 507 25.4 1,105 28.9 1,877 23.7 4,487 12.3 7,150 17.0 657 32.9 1,343 35.1 2,542 32.1 7,321 20.1 7,073 16.9 a (1998, 1-3, p.13) b. ( ) 2 1 2 1 [i] p (
20 ) s [ii] s p s ( (35), (36) ) 2b [iii] ( ) ( ) r 1s r 2s ( ) Q [2] s ( (34) (39) (46) (4) ) TRs F [2] 18 [iv] [v] ( ) s ( ) (50) (i ) 19 1 [i] p ( ) s [ii] s p s ( (35) (36) ) 18 19 ( ) (1994,p.268)
21 2b 2b 20 c. 1 [i ] ( ) s p [ii] p s ( (35) (36) ) 2b [iii] Q [2] s TR F s [2] ( (46) c F s ) [iv] [v] ( ) s ( ) (50) (i) 21 20 (1996, pp.64-66) 21 ( ) (1994,pp.267-268) p ( )
22 d. (41) (42) 1980 ( ) 4 ( 3) 1 1 ( ) 3( ) 22 3 2 2 2 23 1 [i], [ii] 22 (1994) 23
23 4.1 a. 1 p (11) H ( ) F ( ) (38) ( ) (5) µ π = P H Q H TCp H XCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + µ e (PX F Q X + P F Q s TCs F ) (51) σπ 2 =(PX F Q X + P F Q s TCs F )2 σe 2. (52) (12) XCp H ( c H X ) ( ) ce [3] max ce (53) Q H,Q X,Q s Q [3] p = Q [3] H + Q[3] X = P H 2c H p Q [3] X = Z Q [3] s a(σ e PX F ) 2 ( µe φ = 1 PX F aσ 2 e P F 2PX F Q[3] P F 2 Q[3] s (54) s (55) ) (56) = P F. (57) 2c F s φ =(P H + c H X )/PX F Q [3] s a(px F Q X + P F Q s TCs F )σe 2 = Z PX F
24 Q [3] X > 0 (56), (57) µ e >φ+ a(σ ep F ) 2 4c F. s 1 3 1 µ e >φ (19) Q [1] X > 0 24 (56) µ e φ = P F aσe 2 2 Q[3] s (58) 2 (54) Q [3] X = P H 2c H p (59) (54) (55) (56) 25 ( ) (54)-(57) (53) ce [3] = (P H ) 2 4c H p + 1 ( ) 2 Z IC H 2a σ e PX F p [M p (θ p /θ s )] + 1 2 P H + c H X PX F TR F [3] s (60) 24 (55) 1 1 Q [1] X ( (19) ) 25 P F 3 (, c F s ) ( ) 1
25 = 1 ( ) P H Q [3] H 2 + µ epx F Q [3] X ch XQ [3] X ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + 1 ( µ e + P H + c H ) X TR F [3] 4 PX F s. (61) (57) TR F s [3] = P F Q [3] s =(P F ) 2 /2c F s (60) 2 1 ce [1] (21) ( (61) µ e TRs F [3] (60) 2 ). TR F s [3] ( ) a.1. 2( ) (61) 2( ) ce [2] (49) TR F s [3] 2 3( ) (61) φ =(P H + c H X )/PXF ( b ) b. ( ) (60) (21)
26 (i) > ce [3] ce [1] (i i) = 0 (iii) < < if ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] = > 1 P H + c H X (θ p) TR F [3] 2 PX F s. (62) 26 1/2 (µ e TR F s [2] ) b.1. 2( ) (62) 2 ( ) (50) ( µ e ) ( ) µ e ( Z>0 µ e > (P H + c H X )/PX F ) 26 Cassel(1916) (1994a, b) 3 (56) µ e φ =(P H + c H X )/PXF
27 2 (50) 27 ce [3] (60) 2 1 ce [1] (21) ce [3] (61) µ e TR F s [3] (60) 2 µ e TR F s [3] ce [3] ce [1] 2 2 ( ) 3 ( ) b.2. (1970 1980 ) 1, 3( ) c H X (1970 1980 ) (62) 3 ( µ e ) µ e 27 2 ( ) (theexchangeratepass-through) ( ) PX F Kojima(1995)
28 28 s p 2 1 2b [iii] Q [3] s TR F s [3] ( (57) c F s ) [iv] ( ) ( ) c H X ( ) 29 [v] ( ) ( ) [iv] (62) (i ) [i v] 1981 168 1984-85 185 1985 [v] 28 (1980 1990 ) 45% 12% 17% (1980 ) ( 1 ) (62) 29 ( )
29 4.2 a. (5) µ π = P H Q H TCp H XCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + PX H Q X + µ e (P F Q s TCs F ) (63) σπ 2 =(P F Q s TCs F ) 2 σe 2. (64) XCp H 2 (27) ( ) ( ) 3( ) 30 ( ICp H ) / ( c F s ) c F s (40) c F s Q [3] H,Q[3] X 1 Q [3] s ) Q [3] H Q [3] X = P H 2c H p Q [3] X. (65) = PX H P H 2c H. (66) X ( (47) Q [3] s = P F. (67) 2c F s 30 ( 2)
30 Q [3] X Q[3] s PX H,P F c H X,cF s Q[3] X Q[3] s (1997) (55) ( ) ( ) (47) ce [3] = (P H ) 2 4c H p + (PX H P H ) 2 4c H X IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )] + 1 4 µ etr F [3] s. (68) a.1. 2( ) (68) 2( ) ce [2] (49) TRs F [3] ( )
31 b. (68) (31) (i ) > < ce [3] ce [1] (i i) = 0ifICp H 1 [M p (θ p /θ s )] = 4 µ etr F s [3]. (69) (iii) < > (69) 2 (50) ( ) ( ) ( 2 ) 2, 3 ( 1997) b.1. (1980 1990 ) 1 [i] ( ) s p [ii] (35) (36) p s ( ) ( ) [i]
32 2b [iii] 2 2b [iii] ( c F s ) [iv] [v] [iv] [ii] [iii] ( ) (62) (i) ( [iv]) ( [iii]) 4.3 ( ) ( ) (1997)
33 5 ( ) ( ) ( 2) ( 3) ( ) 2, 3 (2 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 2 ( ) [ ] (i) [(iii)
34 ] ( ) ( ) 1980 ( ) 2 2 1980 3 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1997) 1974:Q3 1994:Q3
35 (i) [ ] [ ] (ii) ( ) (i ii) ( 1992 ) [1] / 61 79 (1996) [2] 1994a (1994 3 ) 51-74. [3] 1994b ( ). [4] 1995 42 1 2 85 109 [5] 1997 - VAR 44 1 2 95 157 [6] 1995 ( ). [7] 1998 ( ). [8] 1994 45 3 261 278. [9] 1992 ( ). [10] 1995 ( ) 245 264.
36 [11] / 98-119 (1996) [12] Cassel, G., 1916, The Present Situation of the Foreign Exchanges, Economic Journal, 26, 62 65. [13] Chiang, A.C., 1984, Fundamental Methods in Mathematical Economics, 2nd. edition (McGraw-Hill). [14] Dunning, J.H., 1979, Explaining changing patterns of internaitaonal production: in defense of the eclectic thoery, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 41, 269-295. [15] Kawai, M., 1994, The Japanese Yen as an International Currency: Performance and Prospects, Discussion Paper Series N. F-40 (The University of Tokyo Institute of Social Science). [16] Kojima, H., 1995, The analytics of exchange rate pass-through with numerical applications, in Proceedings of the Third Conference of the Association of Asian-Pacific Operational Research Societies (APORS) within IFORS, eds. by M. Fushimi and K. Tone (World Scientific), 188 195.