Japan-China Expert Meeting on Climate Chage, 2014.11.15 Keynote: Issues and Topics Tetsuo YUHARA The Canon Institute for Global Studies
Recent trends on energy policy 1. Cabinet Adoption of Basic Energy Plan of Japan Defining the nuclear power and coal fired as base load, natural gas fired as middle load, and renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.) as peak load. 2. Publish of IPCC AR5 Cumulative emissions, overshoot scenario, the importance of CCS and nuclear, negative assessment of Kyoto Protocol, serious impacts of global warming 3. Changes of the energy policy of US No new coal fired power plant, 30% reduction of the CO2 emission from power generation 4. EU: to reduce CO2 emission in 2030 by 40% relative to 1990 levels 5. China: trend to set total reduction target rather than CO2 intensity of GDP 6. Decrease of natural gas price, decrease of coal price and increase of coal fired plant in EU, decrease of oil price due to shale gas revolution 7. Establishment of Pledge and Review process to determine post 2020 global emission reduction framework, preparing to COP21 in Paris in 2015 2
Issues of this workshop 1. What kind of long term GHG reduction pathway should be shared to combat global warming? 2. What kind of long term energy mix and the relative emission pathway for each country should be under the global limitation of CO2 emission? 3. Is it balanced between the cumulative additional investment and the benefit to realize the long term energy mix? 4. What are the innovative technologies that support the low carbon industrial society to achieve the long term energy mix, and what is the deployment scheme of those technologies? 5. According to the IPCC AR5, Is the Japan-China cooperation toward the achievement of the long term energy mix possible? 6. What should the contributions to the economic growth and environment protection in Asia be? 7. What kind of long term energy mix should be for Japan? Is it enough to be the model of future industrial society? 3
CIGS Sharable global vision of GHG emission and long term energy mix against global warming 1. Contents of the proposal: a. new emission pathway; b. national energy mix and emission pathway based on global optimization; c. development of low carbon technologies and the deployment scheme 2.Contents: a. To set total global GHG emission (the energy related CO2 as main) from 450 ppm concentration stabilization to overshoot and zero emission scenario within 2, 650GtC, 25% reduction in 2050 relative to 2005 b. Globally cost minimum optimized energy mix and the obtained emissions of each countries to achieve the global pathway 50% reduction for industrialized countries and 10% increase for developing countries in 2050 relative to 2005 c. To maintain the balance between additional investment and energy saving benefit of the energy mix d. The deployment scheme for low carbon energy technologies technology transfer to aid development countries, removal of the additionality and speculation in current Kyoto Mechanism 4
2 nd CIGS International symposium Sharable global long term energy vision against global warming 2011.9.16 Common understanding Support for feasible greenhouse gas emission scenarios based on climate change science while taking the overshoot scenario into account. Need to pursue a long-term global energy vision based on global optimization of the mitigation cost for energy related carbon dioxide emissions for a low carbon dioxide emission scenario and to welcome an energy vision balanced between required additional investments and fuel saving benefits. Promotion of deployment of low carbon technologies through international cooperation based on open, fair and efficient international mechanisms and working to implement an energy vision in which economic growth and global warming control co-exist. Sharing the vision through international discussions. 5
提 案 : 地 球 温 暖 化 抑 制 のために 世 界 で 共 有 すべき 排 出 制 約 と 低 炭 素 産 業 社 会 へ 向 けたビ ジョン Outline -Energy related CO2 emission pathway latest achievement of climate science engineering approach of emission estimation 概 要 ⑴ 温 室 効 果 ガス( 主 としてエネルギー 起 源 二 酸 化 炭 素 )の 総 排 出 量 と 排 出 曲 線 設 定 Z650 -Optimal way to achieve the scientific request analysis based on global energy model -Practical approaches to the proposal technological and economic prospective -Enhancement of international cooperation instead of Cap&Trade and CDM in Kyoto Protocol ⑵この 制 約 下 で 世 界 全 体 で 最 適 化 するエ ネルギー 構 成 と 排 出 分 担 ⑶このエネルギー 構 成 に 対 する 追 加 削 減 費 用 と 省 エネメリットのバランス( 投 資 と 省 エネメリットによる 回 収 ) ⑷ 国 際 協 力 による 低 炭 素 エネルギー 技 術 普 及 のメカニズム 6
Global Emission Pathway Scientific analysis based on --- target of global mean temperature rise to limit the global surface temperature rise to approximate 2 compared to pre-industrial levels --- overshoot scenario with zero emission to decrease the CO2 concentration by zero emission after a peak over the target concentration 7
Z650 Scenario --- 650GtC Global Emission Pathway to be the amount of cumulative CO2 emissions during 21 st century --- Zero emission to be achieved at the middle of 22 nd century (2160) --- Pathway to peak at 2020 (11GtC) according to the trend of recent years with approximate 2% of annual reduction till 2100 with increasing reduction rates in 22 nd century till zero emission Source: Matsuno et al., Stabilization of the CO2 concentration via zero-emission in the next century, presented at the CIGS Symposium on Oct. 27, 2009 8
Comparison between Z650 and RCP Scenarios for AR5 Z650 Source: Matsuno et al., Stabilization of the CO2 concentration via zero-emission in the next century, presented at the CIGS Symposium on Oct. 27, 2009 Z650 is located in the middle of the two RCP scenarios, therefore it could take the advantage of second best solution, i.e., to be more feasible than RCP2.6, and to have better climate performance than RCP4.5. 9
(hundred million USD) ( 億 ドル)(2000 年 換 算 ) Simulation conditions - general Regions Industrialized countries Canada, USA, Oceania, Japan, Russia, WEU, CEU, EEU Developing countries China, India, ASEAN, Brazil, Latin, MENA, Sub-Sahara Population Polulation 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 RUS EEU CEU OLA BRA SSA MEA IND SEA CHN OCE JPN WEU USA CAN GDP GDP(MER) 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 RUS EEU CEU OLA BRA SSA MEA IND SEA CHN OCE JPN WEU USA CAN Based on UN medium level projection Referred to IEA and IMF estimate 10
Energy conservation Yes No Scenarios for the analysis BAU Limitation of power generation share for main clean energy: Hydropower 60%, Biomass 70%, Nuclear 40%, Solar 30%, Wind 25% REF Z650 No 東 南 アジア CO2 cap Z650 Based on the energy conservation and CO2 emission cap, three scenarios were designed and analyzed. 11
Emission (GtCO 2 ) Towards the optimized way Global emissions of Energy Related CO 2 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Z650: 今 世 紀 総 排 出 量 が650GtC 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 BAU Civilization evolution REF Civilization revolution Z650 REF: 省 エネ 技 術 等 の 積 極 導 入.ただし 二 酸 化 炭 素 制 約 は 無 し 総 排 出 量 は 1480GtC. 2100 年 の 温 度 上 昇 は 3.8 程 度 12
Global total primary energy (MTOE) Continuance of fossil fuel dependent society without CO2 policy CO2 emission 2050: 54Gt(2.5 times of 1990) Cumulative emission:630gtc till 2050, 1480GtC till 2100 Resources limitation Enough supply of fossil fuel during this century However, 50 to 70% of the total resources will be used till 2150 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 再 生 可 能 原 子 力 化 石 燃 料 5,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 13
CO2 EMISSION(Gt CO2) sharable global scenario Z650 WORLD/Matsuno et.al DEVELOPING Countries 発 展 途 上 国 INDUSTRIALIZED Countries 先 進 国 35 30 25 20 Global emission pathway: overshoot scenario 650GtC of emission during this century emission curve for developing countries (optimization under Z650) 15 10 emission curve for industrialized countries (optimization under Z650) --- Global 25% reduction 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2013/10/30 湯 原 哲 夫 ; 温 暖 化 問 題 とエネルギー 戦 略 14
Emission (Gt CO2) CO2 emission reductions by sector 58 53 BAU Energy conservation 48 43 38 33 28 23 Z650 18 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Power generation (renewable) Power generation (nuclear) Transportation Stationary CCS Energy saving and renewable energy play an important role during the whole period, while nuclear, transportation and CCS play an increasing role during the later stage. 15
(MTOE) Global Long term Energy Mix Fossil : Nucl : Renew = 5 : 2 : 3 (2050) 3 : 2 : 5 (2100) 25,000 20,000 15,000 Renewable 10,000 Nuclear 5,000 fossil 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
(MTOE) (MTOE) Region Total Primary Energy for Z650 Industrialized countries Total Primary Energy is almost constant up to 2100. Share of fossil fuel gradually decreases Alternatively, share of renewable energy mainly increases Developing countries Total Primary Energy continuously increases up to 2100 Peak of fossil fuel consumption at 2040 Both Nuclear and renewable energy increase remarkably 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Nuclear 14,000 12,000 10,000 Nuclear Renewable 8,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 fossil Renewable 6,000 4,000 2,000 fossil 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Energy mixture in electricity generation of the world Renewable Nuclear Fossil Fuel Cell Solar Wind Baiomass Hydro FBR LWR H2 GAS+CCS GAS OIL+CCS OIL IGCC+CCS IGCC COAL+CCS COAL Z650 18
Gt-CO2 Ratio to 2005 levels CO2 emissions of Z650 scenario 35 30 World 25 20 Developing 15 10 5 Industrialized 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Amount of CO2 emission 1.8 1.6 Developing 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 Industrialized 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Ratio to 2005 levels Industrialized countries peak out in 2010, and reduce their emissions by 50% in 2050 compared to the 2005 levels. Developing countries peak out in 2030, and their emissions increase by 10% in 2050 compared to the 2005 levels. 19
億 t-co2 2005 年 CO2 比 (%) CO2 emissions till 2050 -Global, OECD, Non-OECD, China and USA 化 石 燃 焼 起 源 CO2 排 出 量 ( 億 t-co2) 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年 化 石 燃 焼 起 源 CO2 排 出 量 対 2005 年 比 率 1.8000 1.6000 1.4000 1.2000 世 界 計 1.0000 OECD 0.8000 Non-OECD 0.6000 中 0.4000 国 米 0.2000 国 0.0000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年 世 界 計 OECD Non-OECD 中 国 米 国 To limit the share of nuclear in total power generation less than 60% 20
Result of Global Optimization Global and regional CO2 Emissions Ratios to 2005 levels 2005 2030 2050 REF World 1.0 1.5 1.6 Z650 World 1.0 1.2 0.75 Industrialized countries 1.0 1.0 0.5 US 1.0 0.5 EU15 0.9 0.4 Japan 0.8 0.5 Developing countries 1.0 1.5 1.1 China 1.5 0.8 India 1.9 1.6 Different reduction rates are needed depending on economic levels 21
Region Ratio to 1990 levels CO2 Emissions 2030 2050 Ratio to 2005 levels Ratio to REF of 2030 Ratio to 1990 levels Ratio to 2005 levels Ratio to REF of 2050 World 1.60 1.20 0.82 1.00 0.75 0.46 Industrialized countries 1.05 0.95 0.89 0.53 0.48 0.48 USA 1.16 0.96 0.90 0.57 0.47 0.47 EU15 0.89 0.86 0.91 0.46 0.45 0.53 Japan 0.93 0.79 0.90 0.55 0.47 0.66 Developing countries Regional Equitability Major industrialized and developing countries 2.82 1.54 0.77 2.05 1.12 0.45 China 2.77 1.48 0.74 1.53 0.82 0.37 India 3.42 1.91 0.72 2.83 1.57 0.37 ASEAN 3.74 1.64 0.80 3.41 1.50 0.57 22
Additional Investments vs. Fuel Saving Benefits Global and regional emissions of Energy Related CO 2 Emission (ratio to 2005 level) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Global target (2005 level = 2) REF $7Tri. (invest) Z650 REF $4Tri. (invest) Z650 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Developing countries (2005 level = 1) $9Tri. (benefit) Industrialized countries (2005 level = 1) $5Tri. (benefit) 23
Economic assessment of global optimization Comparison between cumulative additional investment and energy saving benefit within 2010-50(Trillion USD) Global optimization Add. Invest. Energy saving Total benefit World 11 14 3 A1 4 5 1 Non A1 7 9 2 80% reduction in industrialized countries World 42 10-32 A1 37 10-27 Non A1 5 0-5 24
1000 CIGS Proposal Practice approach Accumulative Emissions (GtCO2) (2010-50) International cooperation is necessary to fill in the gap in developing countries from domestic initiative to low carbon vision Domestic Effort BAU 800 600 Domestic Effort BAU Z650 International Cooperation Global Vision Z650 Global Vision 400 Industrialized countries Developing countries BAU: traditional development REF: energy conservation Z650: Low carbon vision 25
Necessity of Enhancement to the current mechanism (CDM) --- Contribution to emission reduction( 現 在 CDMで 扱 う 削 減 量 とは 桁 違 いの 削 減 量 ) Too little (360MtCO2/yr) to meet the target (248GtCO2 during 40 years) --- Business approach( 追 加 性 の 規 定 を 緩 和 してビジネス 主 体 で) Necessity of investment additionality not fit for business feasible actions --- Transaction costs and bottlenecks( 効 率 良 い 迅 速 な 手 続 き) Large costs and complex governance procedures not fit for large scale and rapid applications --- Financing mechanism( 乱 高 下 したカーボン 市 場 投 機 性 を 排 除 するシステ ム) Credit trading system creates speculation 26
Enhanced international Mechanism Based on the enforcement of CDM and bilateral offset mechanism To ensure the incentive to technology UNFCCC In order to achieve the target of reducing 250 GtCO2 during 2010-50, to construct a climate fund of 7 trillion USD for promoting low carbon technology deployment worldwide. Financial Institution Technological Institution Loan Pay off Register Certification Developing Countries Bilateral Offset Mechanism Industrialized Countries 27
Enhanced international Mechanism 国 際 協 力 による 低 炭 素 技 術 の 普 及 認 証 認 定 International Framework Target, Technology, Finance Loan Pay off Registration MRV Funding Collection (by offset) Developing Countries Bilateral Offset Mechanism Technology Offset Industrialized Countries To promote the low carbon technology deployment To provide incentive to low carbon technology development 二 国 間 でのオフセットと 技 術 移 転 有 償 の 融 資 とロイヤリティの 確 保 (トップランナー 低 炭 素 技 術 の 認 定 とライセンスフィーの 尊 重 ) 透 明 性 ある 削 減 実 績 の 認 証 28
20 Innovative energy technology (promotion of high efficiency fossil fuel utilization) 1. Deployment of IGCC 2. Efficiency improvement of NG fired power generation (combined and triple cycle) 3. Industrial utilization of CCS(membrane, cost reduction of transport and storage) 4. Production technologies of deep sea oil and gas, methane hydrate (nuclear technology innovation post Fukushima) 5. Deployment of next generation reactor(lwr, FBR) 6. Development of multi purpose HTGR(inherent safety)and process heat supply 7. Treatment of high level nuclear waste 29
(efficiency improvement and stabilization of renewable energy) 8. High efficiency PV and solar thermal power generation 9. Ocean renewable energy(offshore wind current tide wave OPT) 10. Geothermal (battery revolution) 20 Innovative energy technology 11. High performance storage technology (long life and low cost), independent house and building or smart grid 12. Diffusion of FC for automobile 13. High performance Li battery for EV
20 Innovative energy technology (toward hydrogen society) 14. Hydrogen production using renewable energy 15. Hydrogen storage and transportation technology (82MPa-CFRP compressed tank) (energy saving of process heat) 16. Direct reduction steel making 17. Innovative production process of cement (advanced energy saving technologies) 18. AV transmission, superconductive transmission of electricity 19. Innovative device (SiC) 20. LED, organic EL 31
10 next generation technologies implementing before 2030 and deploying before 2050 1. Olefin synthesis by artificial photosynthesis 2. Thermal power generation using hot dry rock 3. Deployment or solid battery and air-metal battery 4. Next generation solar such as Quantum dot 5. Biomass fuel by micro algae 6. Annihilation of high level nuclear waste using ADS 7. Ocean CCS 8. Superconductive transmission of electricity (Cable) 9. Carbon fixation by vegetation (gene recombination) 10. Next generation power electronics
Summary Z650 Scenario is proposed by scientific analysis as a shared global emission pathway. Global energy system optimization suggests a regionally equitable low carbon vision to achieve the Z650 Scenario. The energy related CO2 emissions of world, industrialized countries and developing countries will be 1.2, 0.95 and 1.54 in 2030, 0.75, 0.48 and 1.12 in 2050, compared with the 2005 levels, respectively. The low carbon vision is technologically feasible and economically rational. Additional investments could be covered by the benefits of fuel saving. Gap between the current national mitigation plans and the low carbon vision occurs in developing countries. Approach with large scale international cooperation for promoting low carbon technology deployment is necessary. Current CDM system is not enough to achieve the global low carbon vision. Enhanced technology-oriented mechanism based on bilateral offset scheme is proposed. 33
まとめ 1. 気 候 変 動 による 深 刻 な 影 響 を 共 有 し 今 世 紀 温 度 上 昇 2 以 内 に 維 持 するため, 温 室 効 果 ガスの 実 現 可 能 な 排 出 計 画 (パスウェイ)を 共 有 する 2. オーバーシュートシナリオも 考 慮 し ゼロエミッション を 目 指 し 今 世 紀 の 累 積 排 出 量 制 限 を 含 む 世 界 全 体 の 排 出 パスウェイを 共 有 する 3. 世 界 全 体 最 適 化 (コストミニマム)によリ 長 期 エネルギ 構 成 を 共 有 し 公 平 な 役 割 分 担 によって 達 成 する 4. 発 展 途 上 国 の 成 長 と 環 境 保 全 を 両 立 させる 長 期 エネ ルギー 構 成 の 実 現 には 先 進 国 の 技 術 的 資 金 的 支 援 の 新 しい 仕 組 みが 必 要 である
Case study: replacing a planned SC/USC with IGCC in China 2008 2020 2035 2050 Remarks a. Planned electricity TWh 2790 4040 5091 4700 b. Total output GW 601 842 1083 1022 1 c. Average power generation efficiency % 35.2 37.5 39 40 2 d. Coal consumption Mtoe 681.6 927.6 1122.6 1010 From a and c e. CO2 emissions Mt 2699 3673 4445 4000 d*3.96 f. Planned share of SC/USC GW g. Replace SC/USC with IGCC GW 413 868 1022 413 868 1022 d and e h. CO2 reduction Mt 333 542 520 1:Based on the EEI scenario in China s Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050 2:The final target of coal fire plant in EEI scenario is the USC and SC, the thermal efficiency is assumed to be 40% 3:It is assumed that all of the current plant in 2008 will be scraped and rebuilt by 2050 with the same speed 4:The efficiency of IGCC is assumed to be 46% according to the data from Nakoso, Japan 5:The capacity is calculated based on the same operating ratio of dust coal fire plant (about 53%). Reduction from e 36
CO2 emission (Mt) planned output (GW) Replacing SC/USC with IGCC 1200 1000 800 SC/USC share (GW) conventinal boiler (GW) 600 400 200 5000 4000 0 2008 2020 2035 2050 Replace planned SC/USC (eff. 40%) with IGCC (eff. 46%) planned case (*1) replace case (*2) 542 333 520 3000 2000 1000 0 Increase of energy efficiency in power sector contributes to CO2 mitigation significantly. 2008 2020 2035 2050 (*1) partly introduce US/USC (*2) introduce IGCC instead of US/USC 37
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政 策 平 成 26 年 6 月 24 日 資 源 エネルギー 庁 水 素 燃 料 電 池 戦 略 ロードマップ をとりまとめ 1 家 庭 用 燃 料 電 池 や 燃 料 電 池 自 動 車 等 足 下 で 実 現 しつつある 燃 料 電 池 技 術 の 活 用 を 拡 大 し 大 幅 な 省 エネの 実 現 や 世 界 市 場 の 獲 得 を 目 指 す ( 現 在 ~) 2 供 給 側 においては 海 外 の 未 利 用 エネルギーを 用 いた 水 素 供 給 シ ステムを 確 立 するとともに 需 要 側 では 水 素 発 電 の 本 格 導 入 も 視 野 に 入 れ エネルギーセキュリティの 向 上 を 目 指 す (2020 年 代 後 半 の 実 現 を 目 指 す) 3 再 生 可 能 エネルギー 等 を 用 いたCO2フリーの 水 素 供 給 システムの 確 立 を 目 指 す (2040 年 頃 の 実 現 を 目 指 す) 42
乗 用 車 の 将 来 (IEAの 予 測 )