1 5 1.1..................................... 5 1.2..................................... 5 1.3.................................... 6 2 OSPF 7 2.1 OSPF.

2011 2012 1 31 5110B036-6

1 5 1.1..................................... 5 1.2..................................... 5 1.3.................................... 6 2 OSPF 7 2.1 OSPF.................................... 7 2.1.1 RIP..................................... 7 2.1.2 OSPF................................ 7 2.2........................... 8 2.3 OSPF.............................. 8 2.3.1 SPT................................. 8 2.3.2....................... 9 2.4................................ 9 2.4.1............................... 9 2.4.2 OSPF.............................. 10 2.4.3 Hello.............................. 10 2.4.4........... 11 3 12 3.1............................... 12 3.2................................ 12 3.3................................ 13 4 14 4.1.................................. 14 4.2.................................. 14 1

4.2.1 AR.................................. 14 4.2.2 MA.................................. 15 4.2.3 ARMA................................ 15 4.2.4 ARIMA............................... 15 4.3............................... 16 4.3.1................................. 16 4.3.2 AIC..................................... 16 5 17 5.1................................... 17 5.2............................. 17 5.3.......................... 18 5.4.............................. 19 5.5........................... 19 5.5.1............................ 19 5.5.2............................ 20 6 22 6.1..................................... 22 6.2..................................... 22 6.3............................. 22 6.4........................................ 24 6.5....................................... 24 6.5.1 Case 1............................ 24 6.5.2 Case 2............................ 26 6.5.3 Case 3............................ 28 7 30 7.1........................................ 30 7.2..................................... 30 7.2.1............................ 30 7.2.2........................... 30 7.2.3........................... 31 2

2.1 OSPF............................ 8 2.2 SPT................................. 9 2.3........................... 11 3.1........................... 13 3.2.............................. 13 5.1................................ 18 5.2................... 18 5.3 arima(1,0,1)................................. 21 5.4 arima(5,0,5)................................. 21 5.5 arima(1,0,1)................................. 21 6.1................... 23 6.2 Case1.................... 25 6.3 Case1..................... 25 6.4 Case 2.................... 26 6.5 Case 2..................... 27 6.6 Case 3..................... 28 6.7 Case 3..................... 29 3

2.1 OSPF................................... 10 4.1 ARIMA......................... 15 5.1........................ 19 5.2 p......................... 20 5.3 q (p=2)..................... 20 5.4 d (p=2, q=1).................. 20 6.1................................... 22 6.2 Case1.................... 26 6.3 Case 2.................... 27 6.4 Case 3.................... 29 4

1 1.1.. [1],,,., 2011 3.20TWh (32.0 kwh), 2030 17.49 TWh 174.9 kwh.,.,,,., sleep,.,,,.,. 1.2,.,., OSPF (Open Shortest Path First), 3.,,. 5

1 1.3. 1. 3 OSPF OSPF. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6

2 OSPF 2.1 OSPF OSPF (Open Shortest Path First) IGP (Interior Gateway Protocol), AS. IGP RIP OSPF, RIP, OSPF. OSPF ISP. 2.1.1 RIP RIP (Routing Informaton Protocol), OSPF IGP. RIP,. ( ),. RIP,,.,,,..,,, RIP., RIP2, RIP2. 2.1.2 OSPF IP, IP 7

2 OSPF,, TOS (Type Of Service), 2.2 OSPF, OSPF LSDB (Link State DataBase). LSDB LSA (Link State Advertisement)., OSPF,..,,. 2.3 OSPF 2.3.1 SPT Dijkstra SPT (Shortest Path Tree).. 2.1: OSPF 8

2 OSPF 1. R1 10 N1 N2. 2. N1, N2 R2, R3. 3. R5 R4, R4,. 4. R5, R2 30, R4 20, R4. 5. SPT 2.2: SPT 2.3.2 SPT R1. SPT.,. OSPF LSA,. LSA, LSDB. 2.4 2.4.1 (DD),.. 9

2 OSPF (LSR) DD,. (LSU) LSA,. (LSA).. 2.4.2 OSPF, OSPF. OSPF. 2.1: OSPF 1 Hello 2 3 4 5 2.4.3 Hello Hello,. OSPF Hello,. Hello Hello.,. Hello. (Hello ) Hello,. Dead Hello,,. 10

2 OSPF 2.4.4 OSPF, LSDB. LSDB. 2.3: 1. R2, Hello, R2 R1 2. (DD) 3., (LSR) 4. LSR, (LSU) (LSU) 5., OSPF LSDB,. 11

3 3.1,,.,,.,,.,,,. 3.2,, 4., (ECO).,.,.,.,,,.,,,,. 12

3 3.3,.,,,,.,,.,, sleep (ECO). 3.1 3.2.. 3.1: 3.2: 13

4 4.1,.,,.,,,. 4.2, AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA. 4.2.1 AR (t p) t, y t e t p y t = a i y t i + e t (4.1) i=1, p AR (AutoregRession). p, p. p AR(p). AR, (Yule-Walker),, (Burg).,. 14

4 4.2.2 MA (t q) t, y t y t = q b j e t j (4.2) j=1, q MA (Moving Average). q MA(q). ARMA,. 4.2.3 ARMA p i=1 a i y t i + e t q j=1 b j e t j y t = p a i y t i + e t + i=1 q b j e t j (4.3) ARMA (AutoregRessive Moving Average). p q ARMA(p,q). j=1 4.2.4 ARIMA y t d y t y t 1 ARMA, ARIMA (AutoregRessive Integrated Moving Average). ARIMA(p,d,q).,,. ARIMA(p,d,q), d = 0 ARMA(p,q). ARIMA p, d, q. 4.1: ARIMA p d d AR MA 15

4 4.3,., 5,., AIC.,, AIC. 4.3.1,,.. (%) = ( ) - ( ) ( ) 100 (4.4) 4.3.2 AIC,. AIC,.. AIC. M, MLL, k. AIC (M) = 2 MLL(M) + 2 k (4.5) 16

5,. 5.1,,.,,.,,,. 5.2,,., 5.1. R1 R4, CL1 2 SV. OSPF,. 5.1 SNMP.,. 17

5 5.1: 5.3. 100Mbps, 5.2. 5.2: 50%. [2], 30%., 5, 50 1.3 5 13(%). 13%., 18

5 Link-A 13% 1/2 6.5%, 13%. 5.4 OSPF,,.,,. 10 5.1. 18, 25, 30. 5.1: Avg (sec) Max (sec) Min (sec) 12.3 18.0 9.0 20.6 25.0 12.0 5.5,, 4 ARIMA. arima(p,d,q), p, d, q.,. 5.5.1,,,. 4 4.4.,., 30 10,. 10, AR p, 0 < p 10 19

5. q = 0, d = 0, p p 5.2. 5.2: p p 2 5 8 (%) 1.115 1.367 6.319 5.2, p = 2, p 2. MA q. p = 2 q 5.3. q, 0 q 2. 5.3: q (p=2) q 0 1 2 (%) 1.115 0.475 0.965 5.2, q = 1, q 1. d. d 0 d 2. p = 2, q = 1, d 5.4. 5.4: d (p=2, q=1) d 0 1 2 (%) 0.475 0.412 0.919 5.4, d = 1., arima(2,1,1)., arima(2,1,1) AIC 25.4,., ARIMA arima(2,1,1). 5.5.2,,.,, 6.5% 13%,. 5.3 5.4, 20

5.,,. 5.3: arima(1,0,1) 5.4: arima(5,0,5) 5.3 5.4, AR MA, arima(5,0,5),., arima(1,0,1),. 5.3, arima(1,0,1).,.,, arima(1,0,1). 5.5: arima(1,0,1) 21

6 6.1,,,. 6.2 5. 5.1.,. 6.1: ( ) 6.5% ( ) 13% ( ) ( ) 30sec arima(2,1,1) arima(1,0,1) 6.3,, 5.1 R2. R1, Link-A, Link-B, Link-C, SNMP 22

6. Link-A, Link-B, Link-C 6.1.. Link-A, Link-B Link-C. 6.1: 6.1, 6.5% Link-C. R2, Link-C., Link-B. Link-A,. R2, Link-B. 23

6 6.4,.. 3,.,., iperf UDP. Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 6.5,, Case.,,,. 6.5.1 Case 1 Case 1, 6.2. Case 1, 6.3. 24

6 6.2: Case1 6.3: Case1 25

6 6.2 6.3 6.2. 6.2: Case1 172sec 148sec 43% 50% 6.2 6.2,,. 6.3 6.2,,. 6.5.2 Case 2 Case 2, 6.4. 6.4: Case 2 26

6 Case 2, 6.5. 6.5: Case 2 6.4 6.5 6.3. 6.3,. 6.3: Case 2 300sec 237sec 1% 6.4,,,., 6.5. 27

6 6.5.3 Case 3 Case 3, 6.6. 6.6: Case 3 Case 3, 6.7. 28

6 6.7: Case 3 6.6 6.7 6.4. 6.4: Case 3 417sec 385sec 64% 71% 6.6,,,.,.,,. 6.4,,.,. 29

7 7.1,,. 3,,,. 7.2. 7.2.1, 3,.. 7.2.2 ARIMA ( ARMA ),.,.,.,,.. 30

7 7.2.3,,.,. 31

.,,.,. 32

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[13],,, FIT2010, 9, pp.187 188, 2010. [14] Philip Miller,, TCP/IP,, 2005. [15] W.Richard Stevens,,, TCP/IP,, 2004. [16],, http://www.alaxala.com/jp/solution/ environment/dynamic.html [17] Rodney S.Tucker, Jayant Baliga, Robert Ayre, Kerry Hinton, Wayne V.Sorin, Energy Consumption in IP Networks, ARC Special Research Centre for Ultra-Broadband Information Networks University of Melbourne, 2008. 34