Chapter 1, Section 3. European Economies Signs of a Pick-Up Real economic growth has been positive for two quarters following six quarters of negative growth, and signs of a pick-up are observed, driven especially by. (Fig. 2) In the meantime, unemployment rates remain high except for and a few other countries, and private consumption is on a downward trend mainly in South Europe, due partly to the decline in real employee compensation. On the other hand, price competitiveness of exports has improved as a result of the depreciation in real effective exchange rates. (Fig. 21-23) Balance-sheet adjustments are still necessary, as the non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector is rising owing to factors such as the decline in housing prices. Corporate borrowing demand remains weak and recovery momentum of investments is not very strong. (Fig. 2-2) Fig. 2 Real GDP in Major Countries Fig. 21 Unemployment Rates in Major Countries (2 ( Q3=1) 年 Q3=1) (%) ドイツ ((Growth 対 年 rate Q3 伸 from び 率 2 %) Q3, %) 1 3 1 12 France フランス 2 1 2 ポルトガル Portugal Eurozone ユーロ 圏 9-1 9 Eurozone ユーロ 圏 -1 Spain スペイン -1 9 1 Italy イタリア Italy イタリア フランス France -2 92-2 ポルトガル Portugal ユ ド フ 9 ドイツ ー イ ラ Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3( 期 ) ロ ツ ン 2 9 1 11 12 13 ( 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 9( (Month) 月 ) 圏 ス 21 11 12 13 ( Fig. 23 Real Effective Exchange Rates (2 ( 年 Q1=1) Q1=1) 11 ドイツ 1 フランス France 1 Portugal ポルトガル 9 9 7 7 Price competitiveness 価 格 競 争 力 優 位 advantage イタリア Italy Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2( 期 ) 2 9 1 11 12 13( Fig. 2 Non-Performing Loan Ratios (%) 3 2 2 Italy イタリア 1 ポルトガル Portugal 1 フランス France Fig. 22 Real Compensation of Employees in Eurozone Countries (Percentage (%ポイント) point) ドイツ 増 Increase 加 2 Spain スペイン ドイツ Decrease 減 France 少 フランス Q1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2( 期 ) 1 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3( 期 ) 29 1 11 12 13 ( ( 27 9 1 11 12 13 Eurozone 2 France イ タ リ ア Italy Fig. 2 Loan Demand Italy イタリア ス ペ イ ン Spain Eurozone ユーロ 圏 ポ ル ト ガ ル Portugal
Chapter 1, Section 3. European Economies Recovery in the UK, Mitigation of Downward Pressure from Fiscal Tightening and Provision of Social Safety Net In the UK, household consumption remains firm as a result of the wealth effect from rising house prices, as well as the progress in balance-sheet adjustments, while a rise in real wage remains a challenge. Fiscal consolidation progresses at a relatively high pace. (Fig. 2-29) In South European countries, the outlook for real economic growth has been improving, as the pace of fiscal consolidation was eased. (Fig. 3-31) Regarding the Banking Union, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is expected to be established after October 21. A comprehensive assessment for banks, which will take place before the SSM becomes operative, will possibly promote bank recapitalization and restoration of confidence on the banking system in the near future. (February (2 年 222=1) 月 =1) 19 1 1 17 17 1 1 1 1 Fig. 2 Housing Prices and Mortgage Rate in the UK House 住 宅 価 Price 格 指 Index 数 住 宅 Mortgage ローン 金 rate 利 (variable) ( 変 動 ) (RHS) ( 右 目 盛 ) 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 2 9 1 11 12 13 Fig. 27 Financial Conditions of UK Households (%) (%) (% (% of disposable 可 処 分 所 income) 得 比 ) 9 9 17 Total 総 負 debt 債 (RHS) ( 右 目 盛 ) 7 7 1 1 2 1 3-2 3 2 2 13 1 Savings 1 貯 蓄 率 rate - 12 - ((Month) 月 ) ( 23 7 9 1 11 12 13 ( Fig. 3 Trends in Estimated Real Economic Growth Fig. 31 Improvements in Fiscal Balance Fig. 29 Fiscal Target of the UK in South European Countries in Major Eurozone Countries (GDP (% of GDP) 比 %) Forecast 見 通 し (GDP (GDP比 to %) %) (Year-on-year ( 前 年 比 %) change, %) (Year-on-year ( 構 造 的 財 政 change 収 支 前 年 of 差 structural GDP fiscal 比 %ポイント) balance, percentage point of GDP) 2 9 3. アイルランド Ireland. Net debt 1 2. 212 年 純 outstanding 債 務 残 高. 1. 7 213 年 イタリア Italy 3.. -1-1. 2. -2-2. 1. -3-3. 3 ポルトガル Portugal. Structural 構 造 的 経 常 的 ユ ド ア ギ ス フ イ ポ. ー イ イ リ ペ ラ タ ル surplus 財 政 収 支 on 2 ロ ツ ル シ イ ン リ ト current - ( 右 目 budget 盛 ) -. 1 圏 ラ ャ ン ス ア ガ ン ル (Forecasts as of - ( 時 点 予 測 ) ド of) 2 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17( (Fiscal 年 度 ) Year) May 12 年 212 月 12 Nov 年 212 11 月 13 Feb 年 213 2 月 May 13 年 213 月 13 Nov 年 213 11 月 Fig. 2 Real Wages in the UK ((Year-on-year 前 年 比 %) change, %) (Year-on-year ( 前 年 change, 比 %) %) - Average 平 均 賃 wage 金 - Real 実 質 wage 賃 金 -2 2 Consumer 消 費 者 物 price 価 ((RHS, 右 逆 inverse 目 盛 ) scale) 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 ((Month) 月 ) 2 9 1 11 12 13 ( Eurozone Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Portugal 7
Chapter 1, Section. Asian Economies China: The Pace of Economic Expansion is Stabilizing The pace of economic expansion is stabilizing, with fixed asset investment showing a stable rate of growth, supported especially by infrastructure-related investment. Exports are also showing signs of a pick-up. (Fig. 32-3) While growth of total social financing remains high driven by the expansion of trust loans and others, these loans may be diverted to real estate investments, and property prices are on a upward trend again. (Fig. 3-37) ((Year-on-year 前 年 比 前 年 change, 同 期 比 %) %) 1 12 - Fig. 32 Contribution to GDP Growth by Final Demand Components 2 Contribution 資 本 of capital 形 成 1 formation 寄 与 Contribution 最 終 Contribution 純 輸 出 of 消 of 費 final 寄 与 net 寄 export consumption 与 -1 Q1-Q3 ( 期 ) 2 9 1 11 12 13 ( -2 Fig. 33 Fixed Asset Investment ((Year-on-year 前 年 比 ( 単 change, 月 ) %) monthly basis, %) Fixed 固 定 asset 3 investment 資 産 投 資 Infrastructure-related インフラ investment 関 連 投 資 Real estate 不 動 investment 産 開 発 投 資 -2-1-2 7 1 1-2 7 1 1-2 7 1( (Month) 月 ) 211 12 13 ( ( 前 年 比 / 前 期 比 %) 7 2 Fig. 3 Trade (Year-on-year change / quarter-on-quarter change, %) Import 輸 入 輸 出 Export 輸 出 ( 季 節 調 整 試 算 値 前 期 比 ) Export (Seasonally-adjusted estimate, quarter-on-quarter change) Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3( 期 ) 29 1 11 12 13 ( ((Year-on-year 前 年 同 期 比 %) change, %) 2 Nominal 名 目 2 1 1 Fig. 3 Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (For ( 参 reference) 考 ) 実 質 Real (Nominal) Food ( 名 目 and )うち beverages 飲 食 (Monthly) ( 月 次 ) ((Nominal) 名 目 )うち Retail 商 products 品 小 売 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q31-2 7 1 ((Quarter/Month) 期 / 月 ) 2 9 1 11 12 13 ( (Note) ( 備 考 1. )1. Created 中 国 based 国 家 upon 統 計 data 局 より from 作 PRC 成 National Bureau of Statistics. 2. "Food 2. 名 and 目 beverages" 額 に 占 める accounts 飲 食 for は1% approximately 程 度 1% of the nominal aggregate retail sales. 3.Retail 3. 商 products 品 小 売 are は consumer 家 電 goods 自 動 車 such 等 as の 消 consumer 費 財 electronics, automobiles, etc. Fig. 3 Total Amount of Social Financing Fig. 37 Trends of Sales Prices of New Houses (Contribution ( 前 年 比 寄 to 与 year-on-year 度 %) change, %) ( (January 年 12=1) Beijing 月 =1) 北 京 Total 社 会 social 融 資 loans Interest & 統 Statistical 計 上 誤 errors 差 総 量 Corporate 社 債 bonds 1 金 deposit 利 reserve 17 預 金 rate 準 cuts 備 率 New 新 規 bank 銀 行 loans 貸 出 (212) の 引 下 げ(212 広 州 ( 人 (in 民 RMB) 元 建 て) 1 1 深 セン 2 1 13 12 11 Shanghai -2 Others Bank 銀 acceptance 行 引 受 手 形 上 海 その 他 1 1379111379111379111379111379111379 ((Month) 月 ) 1-3 1-9 1-3 1-9 1-3 1-9 ( 期 ) 2 9 1 11 12 13 ( 211 12 13 ( Guangzhou Shenzhen
Chapter 1, Section. Asian Economies South Korea & Taiwan: Signs of a Pick-Up in the Economy South Korea & Taiwan: The economy in South Korea is picking up, with strong exports of semiconductors and other items, despite the effect of deteriorating property prices. In Taiwan, exports remain sluggish, reflecting the weak demand for PCs and LCD panels. The economy is showing only a gradual pick-up. (Fig. 3-39) ASEAN: The economy shows only a gradual pace of improvement, owing to the deceleration of the Chinese economy, in addition to specific factors in each country. (Fig. - 1) India: The economy is decelerating since manufacturing is sluggish, mainly due to stagnant sales of automobiles as a result of the monetary tightening and other unfavorable factors, and the service industry, a driving force of the economy, is also slowing down. (Fig. 2-3) (21=1) Electric machinery Automobile Fig. 3 Export Trends in South Korea Total (volume) (Contribution to yearon-year change, %) (Month) Others Automobile Electric machinery Fig. 39 Export Trends in Taiwan (2=1) (2=1) Total Electronic (volume) components, etc. Information and communication technology products (RHS) Optical instruments (Month) (Contribution to yearon-year change, %) Electronic components, etc. Others Optical instruments Information and communication technology products Fig. Real Economic Growth in Indonesia and Thailand (Annualized quarter-onquarter 前 期 比 change, 年 率 %) %) ( quarter 前 期 比 年 change, 率 %) %) (Annualized quarter-on- ( 7 Indonesia インドネシア Thailand タイ( (RHS) 右 軸 ) -1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 ( 期 ) 12 13 ( * Fuel インドネシアは13 subsidy in Indonesia 年 was 月 に reduced 燃 料 補 助 in 金 June 削 減 213. Support タイは12 measures 年 12 月 on に automobile 自 動 車 購 入 purchase 支 援 策 終 了 in Thailand ended in December 212 3 2 1 Fig. 1 Exports to China from Malaysia and Singapore (Contribution to year-on-year change, %) (Contribution to year-on-year change, %) Export growth in China Export growth in China Fig. 2 Real Economic Growth in India (by Industry) (Year-on-year ( 前 年 比 %) change, %) 1 (%) Regional, 地 域 social, 社 会 1 individual 個 人 サービス services Real economic 実 質 経 済 growth 成 長 率 12 Finance, 金 融 insurance, 保 険 and real 不 動 estate 産 Commerce, hotels, transportation, 商 業 ホテル and communication 運 輸 通 信 Fig. 3 Monetary Policy in India September 2 and 13 年 9 月 2 日 1 月 29 日 October 29, 213 7.2 7. 7.7 7.2 7. 7.7 レポ レート Repo rate To other countries To China Export growth in Malaysia (Total) To China To other countries Export growth in Singapore (Total) Agriculture, forestry 農 林 水 産 業 Manufacturing 製 造 業 Construction 建 設 業 and fisheries Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1Q2( 期 ) ( 2 9 1 11 12 13 2 Deposit 預 金 reserve 準 備 率 rate 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1(Month) ( 月 ) 2 9 1 11 12 13 ( 9
Chapter 1, Sections. Overview, Forecasts, and Risks Global Economy & USA Global Economy: The economy will stabilize gradually moving into 21 While the global economy as a whole is recovering only feebly in 213, some solid trends have begun to appear especially in developed countries. Forecast: The economy will stabilize gradually moving into 21. (Real economic growth for 21: slightly over 3%) Risks: (1) effect of policy trends in the USA; (2) directions of economies in China and other emerging countries; and (3) return of sovereign debt crisis in Europe; etc. USA: The economy remains on a modest recovery trend The economy remains on a modest recovery trend as evidenced by the modest increase in consumption and other favorable factors, supported by the improvement in employment and income environments, the rise in housing prices and stock prices, and so on. Forecast: The economy remains on a modest recovery trend (Real economic growth for 21: around the mid-2% level) Downside Risks: (1) deceleration of growth in handling the fiscal problems; (2) decline in housing investments, etc. owing to tapering of asset purchases; (3) return of sovereign debt crisis in Europe; and () prolonged deceleration of emerging economies. Upside Risks: (1) rising asset prices; and (2) mitigation of credit risk. 1
Chapter 1, Sections. Overviews, Forecasts, and Risks Europe and Asia Europe: The economy will show gradual recovery from 21 and the UK are picking up, while the recessions in other countries, including those of South Europe, are bottoming out. Overall, the economy shows signs of a recovery. Forecast: The economy will show gradual recovery from 21, as exports will increase with economic recovery outside Europe, and South Europe will also start to show some signs of a turn around. (Real economic growth for 21: around 1%) Risks: (1) aggravation of sovereign debt crisis; (2) decline in exports owing to economic slowdown in the U.S., Asia, and other regions; and (3) further deterioration in employment conditions. Asia: Growth rate will decline from the previous levels In China, consumption and investment growth will almost level off, and the growth rate will stabilize. In South Korea and Taiwan, the economy is picking up, despite sluggishness in some areas. The ASEAN economies show only a gradual pace of recovery. The Indian economy is decelerating. Forecast: Somewhat slow growth rate. (Real economic growth for 21: China: mid-7% level; South Korea & Taiwan: mid-3% level; ASEAN: high% level; India: around %) Risks: (1) developments surrounding the financial markets and deterioration of export environments; (2) deceleration of the Chinese economy; and (3) re-acceleration of inflation. 11