12 10 Kaplan-Meier Method Discrete-time Logit Model Survival Analysis 2 p t = p t / (1-p t ) Odds Odds Ratio
12 1) 20012002 Allison1995 2 3 35 25 20 6 12 1,156 80 2003 2005 2 4-1 1 12 Person-year Data 3 t
4-1 370 3.91 1,672 17.72 4,286 45.34 923 9.78 4,110 43.48 2,246 23.80 687 7.27 4,596 48.70 9,453 100.00 9,437 100.00 1,715 18.14 546 5.78 3,895 41.20 4,321 45.71 2,866 30.32 3,592 38.00 977 10.34 994 10.52 9,453 100.00 9,453 100.00 5,326 56.34 2,453 26.67 4,127 43.66 3,925 42.68 9,453 100.00 1,389 15.10 1,268 13.79 2,750 29.79 161 1.75 814 8.82 9,196 100.00 5,666 61.39 9,230 100.00 6,176 66.01 3,180 33.99 1,960 20.79 9,356 100.00 5,408 57.35 2,061 21.86 4,270 45.45 9,429 100.00 3,546 37.75 473 5.04 1,179 12.47 1,105 11.76 5,363 56.75 9,394 100.00 2,558 27.07 351 3.71 1,702 18.09 9,451 100.00 7,707 81.91 9,409 100.00 699 7.39 4,613 48.80 4,564 48.47 3,046 32.22 4,853 51.53 1,095 11.58 9,417 100.00 9,453 100.00
4-2 4-8 4-2 5 20 30 4 7 20-24 20 12 16-19 5 6-11 4-3 1995 1995 1990 4-4 5 1960 1960 2003 1960
2003 16-24 4-5 1 4 4-6 Raymo 2004 4-7 8 10 4-8 12
4-2 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 0.75 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 4-3 0.8 0.75 1977-1984 1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-2004 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 4-4 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 1959-64 1965-69 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
4-5 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920 1 4-6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819 4-7 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
4-8 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
4-9 4 exp() 1 1 1 exp(b) 5 z p 10 1995 1980 5.6 20-24 3 13 8 10 4 4-5
1.8 3 20 10 3
4-9 exp(b) exp(b) 0.47 3.15 0.41 0.00 0.53 1.77 0.49 1.00 0.52 2.82 1.00 1.00 1.51 0.62 5.63 0.47 1.14 0.84 2.44 1.00 1.00 0.44 1.16 1.47 3.32 1.00 1.28 3.13 1.19 1.00 1.53 1.24 1.74 1.00 2.23 0.93 0.98 3.16 1.00 0.84 1112 1.06 75 2.10 8927 112.63 0.45 35 1.00 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, + p<0.10 0.78 1.45
Becker1981 30 10 1 censored case
2 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 1 3 4 5 1: 2: 3: 4: 1 3 2 1 4 5 exp(b t ) p t p t = exp(b 0 )*exp(b t ) / (1 + exp(b 0 )*exp(b t )) *1000 b 0 : : 1000 2003 JGSS [2]25-45 2005 77-90 2001-2002 1 14 2001 9 2002 11
Allison, P. D., 1995, Survival Analysis Using the SAS System, Cary: SAS Institute Inc. Becker, G. S., 1981, A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Raymo, J. M., L. Bumpass, and M. Iwasawa, 2004, Marital Dissolution in Japan: Recent Trends and Patterns, Demographic Research, 11(14): 395-420.