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1 KEIO UNIVERSITY MARKET QUALITY RESEARCH PROJECT (A 21 st Century Center of Excellence Project) DP * ** * ** Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Business and Commerce, Keio University Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo , Japan

2 COE 1 KHPS,.. 1

3 Montgomery and Trussell[5]Weiss[6] 2

4 Keeley[4] Wilson[7] Wood[8] marriageable 2 Wilson Ahn and Mira[1] Wilson 3 Charles and Stephens[3] 2 Wilson Borooah[2] 3 3

5 [11] [12] [18] 4

6 4 [15] [14] [16] COE [17] 5

7 [10]

8

9 26.3% 33.2% Wooldridge[9] t P (t T<t+ h T t, x) λ(t; x) = lim = f(t x) h 0 h 1 F (t x) = f(t x) S(t x). S(t x) f(t x) F (t x) T 9 8

10 λ(t; x) = exp(xβ)λ 0 λ 0 log λ(t; x) =xβ + log λ 0 (t) β x x β

11

12 [13] [1] Ahn, N. and P., Mira (2001) Job Bust, Baby Bust?: Evidence from Spain Journal of Population Economics 14(3): [2] Borooah, V. (2002) Does Unemployment Make Men Less Marriageable? Applied Economics 34(12): [3] Charles, K. and M. Stephens Jr. (2004) Job Displacement, Disability, and Divorce Journal of Labor Economics 22(2): [4] Keeley, M. (1977) The Economics of Family Formation Economic Inquiry 15(2): [5] Montgomery, M. and J. Trussell (1986) Models of Marital Status and Childbearing In Handbook of Labor Economics, ed. O. Ashenfelter and R. Layard, 1: New York: Elsevier Science [6] Weiss, Y. (1997) The Formation and Dissolution of Families: Why Marry? Who Marries Whom? And What Happens Upon Divorce? In Handbook of Population and Family Economics, ed. M. Rosenzweig and O. Stark, 1A: New York: Elsevier Science 11

13 [7] Wilson, W. (1987) The Truly Disadvantaged Chicago: University of Chicago Press ( J 1999 ) [8] Wood, R. (1995) Marriage Rates and Marriageable Men: A Test of the Wilson Hypothesis The Journal of Human Resources 30(1): [9] Wooldridge, J. (2002) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data Cambridge: MIT Press [10] = [11] 2001 [12] 2002 [13] 2005 [14] [15] 1999 [16] 2004 [17] 2002 (Sinfonica) [18]

14

15 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err *** *** ** ** ** ***

16 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err *** ** *** *** *** *** ** # *** *** ** ** *** * * * ** ** * *** ***

17 Coef. Std. Err *** *** ** *** Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err * *** *** Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err ** ** *** * *

18 Coef. Std. Err *** *** * * * *** Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err # * * *** * Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err ** # *** # *

19 Coef. Std. Err * ** Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err * *** **

20 19

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