1, 1, 2011 4 3-28,,.,,.,.,,.,,.,,.,.,. 1., 1), 1946.,, GDP,.,,,.,,., (2008) ( NIRA ), 23,.,,, 2).,,,.,,.,,., 657-8501 2-1, E-mail: unayama@person.kobe-u.ac.jp 1) 1. 2), 1990 2 21, 1993 6 12. 3
1 1 2011 4,.,,.,. NIRA,.,.,,, GDP.,., 1%, 2.0% 3).,,.,,., 1, 4).,,.,, GDP,.,,.,,,.,,., 2002.,,., 3), Q&A Q16 (http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kakei/qa-1.htm). 4),, Family Expenditure Survey (FES) 2, Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) 1,. 4
:.,, 2%.,.,,,., 2.,,.,,,.,,,.,,,.,,,.,,.,,.,,,.,,.,,,.,,.,,.,.,,.. 2,.. 3,,., 5
1 1 2011 4. 4,,. 5. 2., 1946 5).,,. 1950, 1951.,, 1953. 1962, 168 8,000,. 1981 1, 5 10,.,,, 2000, 2002 6)., 4,700, 9,000.,, 6, 3.,.,,, 168.,. 3,.,, 7).,, 8).,, 5),.., (1989). 6) 1999,., 1995. 7) (2000),. 8), ( ), ( 13 ).,,. 6
: ( ) 9).,, 2002,, 3.,,.,.,.,,.,,.,,.,,. 2,., 2000,.,,.,,. 3. 3.1,., (2008),.,,.,,., NIRA, 23 17,.,, GDP.,,., 9) 1986,. 7
1 1 2011 4 2.0%, 1%,.,,,.,,,.,,,., (2000),.,,,.,.,,.,,.,., 2002, 3 10).,,,.,,.,,,.,,. 3.2, 2%.,.,,.,.,, 10) 70% 2. 8
:.,. 6, 1 11),.,, 12)., 1, 2, 3, 4, 13).,,.,,,.,,,.,,.,.,,,.,,. (2000),.,, 14).,,.,, 1% 2% 15)., 11) 2002, 6. 12) (1992), 1995 30.1%, 1990 45%. 13),, 1993 6 12, 2000 6 19 GDP, 7 14 7 2, 2004 1 9 ( ), ( ), 2006 11 10 ( ) ( ). 14) Q&A Q19 (2009 4 1 http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kakei/qa-1.htm). 9
1 1 2011 4,.,, 16)., 3,,., 5 1 6., 3.,, 1,,.,,. 3 2004, ( 1).,, 3. 2005, 2.58,.,, 12 17).,,, 18).,,.,, 2.,,.,.,.,,.,,., C, 0.2, 20%.,, 15) (2000),, 1.2%. 16) 1990 2 21,.... 17) 2(http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kakei/pdf/furoku2.pdf) 18),,. 10
: 1 3 (2004 ) A. ( ) 8,606 58,048 22,530 ( ) 2.59 2.57 2.60 ( ) 1.19 1.22 1.28 ( ) 53.9 53.7 55.5 B. 7,742 53,112 20,104 ( ) 3.19 3.26 3.20 ( ) 1.39 1.49 1.53 ( ) 54.1 53.7 56.4 C. 4,427 31,025 10,180 ( ) 3.48 3.52 3.49 ( ) 1.63 1.70 1.82 ( ) 46.4 46.5 48.7,.,,.,,.,,,,.,,., (2005),,.,.. 11
1 1 2011 4,,.,, 19).,,,,., (2005),. 3,, 20)., (2005),,.,,., (1992) 4 4,,.,.,,,. (1992),,., (2007) SNA, 5%,.,. 19),,,,,.,,. 20), (1992), (1990),. 12
:, 2,.,,,.,,.,,,, 21). 3.3,,.,,,.,,,,,.,,., 9,000.,,.,,.,., 22)., ( ). (2003),,.,.,, 1.,. 2,., 21), (2005), (2006). 22) 1999 7 7, NIRA(2008). 13
1 1 2011 4. 3,,.,,,.,,.,.,,,., (2009),.,,.,,.,,,,. (2009),, ( 2)., 2002 2006 2,., 100%, 100%., 2002 2006 70%,., ( 3),,, 5.,,,,.,,.,.,, 14
: 2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (1) 101,824 100,562 107,441 105,235 103,492 104,864 (2) 149,428 147,414 148,996 150,474 152,851 150,772 ((1)/(2)) 68% 68% 72% 70% 68% 70% (1 ), 94% 2. 6,,,.,.,,,.,.,.,,.,.,,.,,.,,,.,,.,.,.,,,, ( ). ( ) ( 19 p.481). 15
1 1 2011 4 3 ( ) 73% 100% ( ) 92% ( ) ( ) 135% ( ) 46% 40% 49% ( ) 35% 41% 26% 51% 44% ( ) 39% ( ) 31% ( ) ( ) 51% ( ) 81% 29% 30% ( ) 74% ( ) 28% 41% 16
: ( ) 110% 55% 58% 59% 55% 39% 35% 63% ( PHS ) 53% ( ) 86% 44% 44% 63% 70% 52% 47% 17
1 1 2011 4 ( ) (, ) 76% (, ) 80% 39% 54% 80% 72% 82% 51% 24% 40% 52% 115% 104% 69% 84%., (1996) (2007) 1 SNA, SNA 5%, SNA 23)., (1989)., SNA 1,. SNA 1990 40 4104., 1 97, 8.1, 23),., Atkinson et al (1995) Banks and Johnson (1998). 18
: ( ) 0.3., 2005, SNA 1 1.3, 991. 2,,, 10 2000. (1996), ( ) ( ),.,,,.,,,,,.,., SNA 24). ( 1) SNA, 20%., 1980,.,,, (,, 1993;, 1993;, 1995 1996;, 1999).,, 25)., 2,. (1995 1996), 70%., 30%., (2003) 1990,,., (2009),,., 24) Demery and Duck (2006),,,. 25) 1990 (1999). 19
1 1 2011 4 % 35 1 SNA 30 25 20 15 10 SNA(1990 68SNA) 5 SNA(2000 93SNA) 0 ( ) 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008,, 2.,,.,,,.,,,.,,,.,,,. 3.4,,.,., 20
: 26).,, 2, 27).,.., (1), (. ) (2) (3) 4 (4) (3 ) (5) (6) ( ),.,,,.,,.,, 2. 1,.,,.,,,. 1,.,,.,,,. 3.5,.,,,.,,,.,., 1980 26) p.7 (http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kakei/pdf/mikata1.pdf ). 27) Banks and Johnson (1998),. 21
1 1 2011 4 5%, 2005 25%.,,.,., 2009 4, 2,,.,.,,.,.,,.,, 50,.,.,.,, 28).,,.,,, 1.,, (2005) (p.86).,,., 1.,, 5, 1.,, Deaton (1985) (Pseudo Panel).,, 3 5, 1. 1 28),, (2006). 22
:,,.,,.,.,,,.,, 29).,, 30).,,,.,,.,,,.,,,.,,,. 4.,.,, 31)., FES, 10,000, 10 1.,., FES 2, 1 6., CES, 1980, 1 7,000. CES 1, 1, 29) http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kakei/form5.pdf. 30).,.. 31), (2007). 23
1 1 2011 4.,,,.,,.,,,.,,.,, Panel Study of Income Dynamics(PSID). PSID, 1968,,., British Household Panel Survey 1991,. 8 2 Encuesta Permanent de Consumo(ECP) 32)., 6,.,,.,, (, 2008).,,,. (1986),, ( ) (Kohara, Ohtake, and Saito, 2002;, 2005; Hori and Shimizutani, 2005a, 2005b, 2006 Shimizutani, 2006, 2006), (2008). 1980 2005,,,.,,.,, 32), Health and Retirement Study (HRS), English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).,, HRS. 24
:.,,,.,, 2000.,, 1., 2.,.,,,.,.,,.,,.,,,., CES. (1992),,,,,., PDA.,.,,.,,,.,,,.,.,,.,,. 5.,,.., % 25
1 1 2011 4,.,,,.,,.,.,,.,,,.,.,.,,,., 2002,.,.,,,.,,.,.,,.,,.,,,.,,.. (2000) 8 12-19 Atkinson, A. B., L. Rainwater, and T. M. Smeeding (1995) Income Distribution in OECD Countries: Evidence 26
: from the Luxembourg Income Study, Paris, OECD. Banks, J. and P. Johnson (1998) How Reliable Is the Expenditure Survey?: Trends in Incomes and Expenditures over Time, Institute of Fiscal Studies: London. Deaton, Angus (1985). Panel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sections, Journal of Econometrics vol. 30(1-2), pp. 109-126. Demery, D. and N. W. Duck (2006) Demographic Change and the UK Savings Rate, Applied Economics, vol 38, pp. 119-136. (2001) 93SNA (2007) / 4 (1986) vol.101 pp.1-23. Hori, M. and S. Shimizutani (2005a) Price Expectations and Consumption under Deflation: Evidence from Japanese Household Survey Data, International Economics and Economic Policy, vol.2, pp.127-151. Hori, M. and S. Shimizutani (2005b) Consumer Response to the 1994 Tax Cut: Evaluating the Japanese First Tax Cut in the 1990s, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, vol.46, pp.85-97. Hori, M. and S. Shimizutani (2006) Did Japanese Consumers Become More Prudent During 1998-1999? Evidence From Household Level Data, International Economic Journal, vol.20, pp.197-209. (1995) (1) ( ) 35 (1996) (2) ( ) 37 (2000) GDP (2) GDP 6 24 Kohara, M., F. Ohtake, and M. Saito (2002) A Test of the Full Insurance Hypothesis: The Case of Japan, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol.16 (2002) pp.335-352. (1963) (2000) 2 (1992) (1993) SNA 99 pp.18-79 (1999) SNA (2005) Ohtake, Fumio and Saito, Makoto, (1998) Population Aging and Consumption Inequality in Japan, Review of Income and Wealth vol. 44(3), pp. 361-81. (2007) / 3 Shimizutani S. (2006) Consumer Response to the 1998 Tax Cut: Is a Temporary Tax Cut Effective? Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol.20, pp.269-287. (2005) 56, pp. 234-247. (2008) NIRA (1989) (1989) 116. (2005) (2006) (1993) ( ) 12 2 127-147 (2003) 27
1 1 2011 4 (2006) ( ) 57 5 6 (2008) 10 (2009) SNA 10 ( ) (1990) ( ) 71 (1999). (2006) 1980 5. 28