1 (2005) (2004) (2005) (2006) 1: (2007) 2 2 2: Auerbach, Gokhale and Kotlikoff(1991) Gokhale (2005)

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1 3 1 2 (2007) JEL H55 Key words public pension social security subsidy general accounts sustainability generational accounts ecms1019@kwansei.ac.jp 1

2 1 (2005) (2004) (2005) (2006) 1: (2007) 2 2 2: Auerbach, Gokhale and Kotlikoff(1991) Gokhale (2005) (2006) (2005) (2004) (2007) (2007) 2 (2008) 2

3 and Smetters(2003) (1996) Takayama, Kitamura and Yoshida(1999) (2005) SNA SNA SNA SNA 3 18 (2005) (2005) SNA 1 4 1: (1) t N t, k + N t, k G s W g t (1) k=t D k=t+1 s=t N t,k k D G s W g t t N t,k (2) N t,k = k+d s=max(t,k) ( ) 1 s (t+1) τ s,k P s,k (2) 1 + r s P s,k s k τ s,k s k r s ( ) (3) X = (GE s GR s ) W g t (3) s=t 3 Auerbach, Gokhale and Kotlikoff(1991) (2005) 4 Appendix 3

4 X GE s s GR s s GE s t k i g t,k,i ρ s k i g s,k,i P s,k (4) GE s = k g s,k,i = (1 + ρ) s t g t,k,i g t,k,i = GE t,k,i P t,a i ( ) 1 s t g s,k,i P s,k (4) 1 + r g s,k,i s i GE s,i α i,k P k (5) α k,i P k 1 g s,k,i = GE i k α (5) k,ip k P k α i,k GR s (6) GR s = ( ) (1 + ρ) s t 1 s t τ s,a,l P s,a (6) 1 + r k l l j T j (7) T k = γp k τ l + (1 γ) P k 0 (7) τ k γ τ j (8) τ j = T k P k (8) = γp k τ k + (1 γ) P k 0 P k = γp k τ k P k = γτ k

5 : : : (2005) (2004) 6 open group 5

6 : : : 2006 :

7

8 6: : :

9 GDP GDP : : :

10 A A

11 65 ) A

12 A A.4 A A.6 Auerbach, Gokhale and Ktlikoff(1991) (=? ) 1 1 A

13 A.8 1 A.9 A.10 1 A.11 1 A A.13 13

14 A.14 [1] Auerbach, Alan, J.,Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (1991), Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting, in Bradford, David eds, Tax Policy and Economy, Vol.5, MIT Press. [2] Gokhale, Jagadeesh and Kent Smetters(2003),Fiscal and Generational Imbalances, AEI Press. [3] Takayama Noriyuki, Yukinobu Kitamura, and Hiroshi Yoshida (1999), Generational Accounting in Japan. in Auerbach, Kotlikoff and Leibfritzin eds., Generational Accounting around the World, NBER. [4] (1996) No.39. [5] (2005) 2004 HIA Discussion Paper No.10. [6] (2006) HIS Discussion Paper No.16. [7] (2005) 16. [8] (2005) [9] (2004) RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-J-019. [10] (2006) [11] (2007) RIETI Discussion Paper Series 07-J-019. [12] (2007) No.38. [13] (2008) KG-SANKEN Discussion Paper No.3. [14] (2005) 2000 DP

6. Tel03-3201-0517 2

6. Tel03-3201-0517 2 1. 2004 2 10 (i) 3 1 2 1 (ii) 18.30 16,900 2004 (iii) 50 3 2. 3. 3 4. 5. 1 6. Tel03-3201-0517 E-Mailnaoko.horie@mizuho-ri.co.jp 2 4 2004 4 2 1 4 18.30 5 50 5 59.3 50.2 5 6 6 7 7 9 11 12 13 99 13 13 14

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