Time frame Environmental Option Database (EDB) Stores information of activities which accompany or reduce GHGs emission. 2

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1 The 14 th AIM International Workshop Feb 15, 2009 at Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES, Japan Shuichi Ashina, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

2 Time frame Environmental Option Database (EDB) Stores information of activities which accompany or reduce GHGs emission. 2

3 Snapshot models Transition models Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO 2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level Backcast model Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS 3

4 Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO 2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS 4

1990 CO 2 Emission 2000 CO 2 Emission 70% reduction Change of activity Energy demand sector Energy supply sector Reduction of demand energy intensity of end-use of end-use of energy supply 6 21 90 36

5 1990 CO 2 Emission 2000 CO 2 Emission 70% reduction Change of activity Energy demand sector Energy supply sector Reduction of demand energy intensity of end-use of end-use of energy supply CO 2 Emission CCS Industry Residential & commercial Transportation Energy supply Change of activity Reduction of service demand energy intensity Reduction of service demand energy intensity Reduction of service demand energy intensity Carbon Capture Storage High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase) Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease) Farm products produced and consumed in season Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas Insulation Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS) Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment Development and widespread use of fuel cell All-electric house Photovoltaic Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function Modal shift to public transportation service Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle High efficiency freight vehicle energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane) Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy Effective use of night power / Electricity storage Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply Power generation without CO2 emission Hydrogen production without CO2 emission Target Vision in 2050 Backcast Model Narrative Roadmaps Will be explained from Ehara-san and Iwabuchi-san Roadmaps 5

6 Future target vision Social/Economical conditions and service demands to the future Set of options (countermeasures and policies) for achieving future target And, each options Sequential order Elapsed time Kick-off period 6

7 Residential/commercial sector actions 1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built environment design. Intelligent buildings. 7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient public transport 2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent and release system resulting in improved availability. Industrial sector actions 3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local foods for local cuisine 4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and renewable buildings materials and products. 5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry Businesses aiming at creating and operating in low carbon market. Supplying low carbon and high value-added goods and services through energy efficient production systems. Transportation sector actions 6. Swift and Smooth Logistics Networking seamless logistics systems with supply chain management, using both transportation and ICT infrastructure Energy supply sector actions 8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants 9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, biomass and others. 10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply system with required infrastructure Cross-sector actions 11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by consumers, and public acknowledgement of such consumers 12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource development for building Low-Carbon Society and recognizing extraordinary contributions. 7

8 1990 CO 2 Emission 2000 CO 2 Emission 70% reduction Change of activity Energy demand sector Energy supply sector Reduction of demand energy intensity of end-use of end-use of energy supply CO 2 Emission CCS Industry Residential & commercial Transportation Energy supply Change of activity Reduction of service demand energy intensity Reduction of service demand energy intensity Reduction of service demand energy intensity Carbon Capture Storage High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase) Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease) Farm products produced and consumed in season Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas Insulation Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS) Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment Development and widespread use of fuel cell All-electric house Photovoltaic Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function Modal shift to public transportation service Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle High efficiency freight vehicle energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane) Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy Effective use of night power / Electricity storage Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply Power generation without CO2 emission Hydrogen production without CO2 emission Target Vision in 2050 Backcast Model Narrative Roadmaps Roadmaps 8

9 Investigating When and Which options and How much of each option (countermeasures and policies) should be introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping consistency of energy/economy. Input Future target vision Social/Economical conditions Set of options And, each options Sequential order Elapsed time Kick-off period Output Feasibility of the target Roadmaps CO 2 /Cost trajectories 9

10 Investigating When and Which options and How much of each option (countermeasures and policies) should be introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping consistency of energy/economy. Input Future target vision Social/Economical conditions Set of options And, each options Sequential order Elapsed time Kick-off period Output Feasibility of the target Roadmaps CO 2 /Cost trajectories 10

11 1. Assembles quantitative socio-/economicframeworks used in depicting future visions 2. Extracts individual components from the Narrative roadmaps 3. Builds relationships between components 4. Depicts Gantt-chart and judges the validity of included components and relationships 5. Sets quantitative data into components Backcast model 11

12 Backcast Model 12

13 140 Population (Million) (Thousand) Type of household (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Others age 80- Parent- Children One-Person Couple-Only Couple- Children year A B Population (million) Aged population ratio (%) Average number of household Single-person households (%)

14 Indices Personal attribute Day Land area Mode Example of element Several groups depending on age, sex, employment, etc. Weekday, holiday Urban, mountainous, agricultural, etc. Car, bus, railway, aviation, maritime, walking & bicycling, etc. 1,600,000 Objective Work, school, return, business, private & shopping, etc. If the vision is already set, Simulation time Every 5 years between 2000 and 2050 Total transportation demand by mode of transportation (mil. person-km) Inter-region transportation demand by mode (mil. person-km) most part of step 1 is done. 450,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Bus Aviation Pass.car Maritime Railway Walking & Bicycling 400, , , , , , ,000 50,

m011 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の検討 m013 断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及 m012 省エネ省 CO2 診断士の養成 If the narrative roadmaps m010 m006 m004 建築物用途別環境性能ラベルに住宅ラベリング制の簡易性能評応じた税制優遇の度の認知普及 are already set, most 価手法の確立 part 創設 m005 m003 of

15 m011 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の検討 m013 断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及 m012 省エネ省 CO2 診断士の養成 If the narrative roadmaps m010 m006 m004 建築物用途別環境性能ラベルに住宅ラベリング制の簡易性能評応じた税制優遇の度の認知普及 are already set, most 価手法の確立 part 創設 m005 m003 of step 2 is done. 環境性能ラベルに住宅建築物ラベリ応じた低金利融資ング制度の導入制度の創設 m015 施工者向けの研修会開催 m019 段階的に引き上げられる長期的な省エネ基準目標値の設定 Step 2 is basically Process of making m017 RES) 住宅ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m009 m007 建築物ラベリング RES) 断熱構造住 backward 制度の認知普及宅の導入促進 narrative process roadmaps of m016 匠の建築技術伝承講座の開設 m014 省エネ建築物建築技術の普及 m018 m001 m008 建築物ラベリン RES) 断熱構造住宅の making narrative COM) 省エネ建築グの認証登録 roadmaps 普及による暖房需要の物の導入促進の義務づけ低減 m002 COM) 省エネ建築物の普及による冷房暖房照明動力需要の低減 15

16 m011 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の検討 m013 断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及 m012 省エネ省 CO2 診断士の養成 m011 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の検討 m015 施工者向けの研修会開催 m016 匠の建築技術伝承講座の開設 m010 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の確立 m004 住宅ラベリング制度の認知普及 m006 環境性能ラベルに応じた税制優遇の創設 m010 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の確立 m003 住宅建築物ラベリング制度の導入 m005 環境性能ラベルに応じた低金利融資制度の創設 m015 施工者向けの研修会開催 m003 住宅建築物ラベリング制度の導入 m019 段階的に引き上げられる長期的な省エネ基準目標値の設定 m012 省エネ省 CO2 診断士の養成 m019 段階的に引き上げられる長期的な省エネ基準目標値の設定 m017 RES) 住宅ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m016 匠の建築技術伝承講座の開設 m013 断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及 m004 住宅ラベリング制度の認知普及 m005 環境性能ラベルに応じた低金利融資制度の創設 m006 環境性能ラベルに応じた税制優遇の創設 m009 建築物ラベリング制度の認知普及 m014 省エネ建築物建築技術の普及 m009 建築物ラベリング制度の認知普及 m007 RES) 断熱構造住宅の導入促進 m014 省エネ建築物建築技術の普及 m017 RES) 住宅ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m018 建築物ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m018 建築物ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m008 COM) 省エネ建築物の導入促進 m001 RES) 断熱構造住宅の普及による暖房需要の低減 m007 RES) 断熱構造住宅の導入促進 m008 COM) 省エネ建築物の導入促進 m002 COM) 省エネ建築物の普及による冷房暖房照明動力需要の低減 m001 RES) 断熱構造住宅の普及による暖房需要の低減 m002 COM) 省エネ建築物の普及による冷房暖房照明動力需要の低減 16

17 m011 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の検討 m015 施工者向けの研修会開催 m016 匠の建築技術伝承講座の開設 m010 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の確立 m003 住宅建築物ラベリング制度の導入 m019 段階的に引き上げられる長期的な省エネ基準目標値の設定 m012 省エネ省 CO2 診断士の養成 m013 断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及 m004 住宅ラベリング制度の認知普及 m005 環境性能ラベルに応じた低金利融資制度の創設 m006 環境性能ラベルに応じた税制優遇の創設 m009 建築物ラベリング制度の認知普及 m014 省エネ建築物建築技術の普及 m017 RES) 住宅ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m018 建築物ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m007 RES) 断熱構造住宅の導入促進 m001 RES) 断熱構造住宅の普及による暖房需要の低減 m008 COM) 省エネ建築物の導入促進建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の検討 m002 COM) 省エネ建築物の断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及普及による冷房暖房照明動力需要の低減省エネ建築物建築技術の普及施工者向けの研修会開催匠の建築技術伝承講座の開設 RES) 断熱構造住宅の普及による暖房需要の低減 COM) 省エネ建築物の普及による冷房暖房照明動力需要の低減建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の確立住宅建築物ラベリング制度の導入省エネ省 CO2 診断士の養成段階的に引き上げられる長期的な省エネ基準目標値の設定住宅ラベリング制度の認知普及環境性能ラベルに応じた低金利融資制度の創設環境性能ラベルに応じた税制優遇の創設建築物ラベリング制度の認知普及断熱構造住宅の導入促進省エネ建築物の導入促進住宅ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ建築物ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ Back to Step 2/3, if necessary

Init/Max quantity How many years will be taken for implementing of options FLAG CONTFLAGFLOW QINIT QMAX YRINIT YREND S0 SMIN LIFE DPRYR COST m001 1 1 0 1 2008 2070 35 30 50 15 5685.

18 Init/Max quantity How many years will be taken for implementing of options FLAG CONTFLAGFLOW QINIT QMAX YRINIT YREND S0 SMIN LIFE DPRYR COST m m m m m m When will the option become feasible? When will the option become not available? Ex. CCS will be available after 2020 Life and Depreciation year Additional cost These information are same as AIM/Enduse (or bottom-up type technology selection model) 18

19 Five types of effects are included in the model Fuel consumption change Demand change Efficiency change Direct CO2 reduction Impact of policy support e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 m001 j m002 j m002 j m002 j m002 j

20 Future energy service demands (Base case) i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j i1 j These information are same as Energy Snapshot Tool (ESS) 20

21 Future energy service demands (Base case) DUMMY m001 m007 1 m001 m013 1 m002 m008 1 m002 m014 1 m013 断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及 m011 m015 建築物用途別の簡施工者向けの研修易性能評価手法の会開催検討 m010 建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の確立 m019 m003 段階的に引き上げ m012 住宅建築物ラベリられる長期的な省省エネ省 CO2 診断士ング制度の導入エネ基準目標値のの養成設定 m005 m006 m004 m009 環境性能ラベルに環境性能ラベルに住宅ラベリング制建築物ラベリング応じた低金利融資応じた税制優遇の度の認知普及制度の認知普及制度の創設創設 m016 匠の建築技術伝承講座の開設 m014 省エネ建築物建築技術の普及 Main Prerequest option m017 RES) 住宅ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m018 建築物ラベリングの認証登録の義務づけ m007 RES) 断熱構造住宅の導入促進 m008 COM) 省エネ建築物の導入促進 m001 RES) 断熱構造住宅の普及による暖房需要の低減 m002 COM) 省エネ建築物の普及による冷房暖房照明動力需要の低減 This is JUST translation from the result of Step 3/4. 21

22 Manual of Backcast Model (and development of Narrative roadmaps?) with datasets for Japan LCS Study will be released. 22

23 Thank you

3.持続可能な交通の国際比較

3.持続可能な交通の国際比較 43 SS Indices Related with Sustainable Transport and Comparison of the Actual Conditions Direction of Indices for Actual Status of Sustainable Transport Triple bottom line: Economic, Social, Environmental