2000 COE Center of Excellence: COE JETRO 2 3 4

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1 2000 COE Center of Excellence: COE JETRO 2 3 4

2 FDI FDI FDI FDI

3 COE

4 Bank of Thailand: BOT % % 40% % 10 20%

5 1990 IMF International Capital Markets GDP 6% 1993 Bangkok International Banking Facility: BIBF BIBF BIBF BIS 1 World Development Indicators GDP % 140% 40% 140% 10% 50% 2 1 BIS [35] % 240% 180% 200% 100% 3

6 GDP IMF World Economic Outlook

7 1: GDP P. - [36] Krugman[32] Young[65] 3 5

8 2.1 Wade-Veneroso[61] [2] Radelet- Sachs[50] self-fulfilling model 3 lender of last resort 1999 [51]

9 4 [24] Fane-McLeod[12] Tsurumi[58] Katz[25] Wade-Veneroso[61] 4 7

10 Wade-Veneroso[61] Katz[25] Johnson[21] exploit 3 Bhagwati[3] 8

11 5 2.3 IMF IMF 2 Wade-Veneroso[61] [2] Katz[25] IMF IMF Hoshi-Kashyap[19] Nakajima[38] 6 World Bank World Development Indicators % 8.5% 4.2% 5.2% 8.6% GDP 2.3% 0.6% 3.0% 0.2% 1.4% 9

12 IMF IMF J. IMF - [36] - [36] [2] IMF [29] 4 10

13 J. [35] 100% 2.4 Eichengreen-Rose-Wyplosz[11] 2 Krugman[31] Flood-Garber[13] Obstfeld[48][49] 11

14 Krugman[33] Krugman[34] Krugman[33] Corsetti-Pesenti-Roubini[9] Chang-Velasco[7] 7 7 Chang-Velasco[7] Diamond-Dybvig[10] Calvo-Mendoza[5] Eichengreen-Rose-Wyplosz[11] Kaminsky-Reinhart[23] 12

15 Krugman[34] Krugman[34] Krugman[34] Diamond-Dybvig Caballero-Krishnamurthy[4] 2 overborrowing 13

16 externality FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI 8 NBER 14

17 FDI FDI 3.2 FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI [20] Kreinin- Abe-Plummer[30], UN[59] 2 M&A FDI 15

18 2: ÂÙé ntƒ1ð çntƒ1ð ;oëë.kn TUM { Q ÅÊ ÅÉ1 ë ë ëïí Q Ù21 Q tj1ç z í Ö] þ^ò.n í Ò Ù 19Ê ëë»!œ ƒ 1ÕÐ ëïí T _ TžZÎ. í?ð- çntƒ1ð ë í 1+ ÐÃ ÇÀ Ñ Ñ ûþ1 Ð F ë 1 ãion Ð 1 í Fù ã 1'NÇ ë Q 1ùª±S1 { }M» í ÂÏ è1t -é 1 í ÅŒ1v ùª±s1 {.» í &_ { Tù -Kçô1 ë R{ }±_ í T D.KM TžZ Î. é &J}M í ë FDI FDI FDI M&A FDI 16

19 FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI 1998 FDI ICC UNCTAD 1998 UN[59] 88 FDI 9 [20] 17

20 1: Š Œ ˆŒ ùö ù ùø ùù òððð Ö _ ˆr] z_ ˆ Œ ` z _ $ FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI 18

21 M&A FDI M&A Alburo[1] FDI JETRO [20] FDI FDI FDI FDI M&A 100 M&A [27] 11 19

22 M&A 96 M&A M&A FDI 4 FDI FDI M&A M&A M&A FDI FDI [20] FDI FDI FDI 20

23 3: FDI V žo(2»n sé%õ ²ˆ ˆ Ëá ã(% : ï ši²ˆ ˆ Œ>Ž ãä1%ð~c : Ï ²ˆ ˆ Ž> å\é U ãä1 ~C: : é Wå² ²ˆ ˆ ˆˆ>ˆ ]s]ùfö1ã}~c: ûþ:q ÒÁ ² ˆ Ž> å\é U ãä1 ~C: :? T Wå² 2 FDI [46] [22] FDI ASEAN ASEAN

24 ASEAN [55] [54] [54] NIEs4 ASEAN

25 3 5 FDI M&A JETRO [41] ASEAN5 ASEAN

26 85 2 ASEAN [45] 8 12 [54] JETRO [41]

27 FDI [54] JETRO [41] FDI 3.2 FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI 25

28 FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI Chuhan-Quiros-Popper[8] 15 Frankel-Rose[14] FDI FDI - [17] FDI 26

29 Zhang[66] Chang-Luh[6] FDI - [17] IMF FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI [26] 27

30 IMF M&A ASEAN The ASEAN Secretariat[56] [44] 13 IMF 13 [26] 28

31 [40] [44] [62] FDI - [17] Siripaisalpirat-Hoshino[52] FDI 100 (firm-specific advantage) Li-Guisinger[37], Woodcock et al.[63], Nitsch et al.[47] FDI FDI Kreinin et al.[30] - [15] - [16] - [60] - [60] - [15] Harris-Schmitt[18] 2 - [15] 29

32 FDI Smarzynska-Wei[53] FDI FDI FDI Thompson-Poon[57] ASEAN FDI [54] FDI 3.3 FDI FDI FDI 2000 FDI FDI FDI 30

33 FDI FDI FDI FDI M&A FDI FDI M&A [54] FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI

34 4: BOI Ç ãä Ö %º Tõ Ç ãä Ö %º BOI % 1 4 BOI BOI 62.8% % % % BOI WTO local contents BOI 3 32

35 % ( [28]) % % % % JETRO AUTO ALLIANCE THAI SUMMIT MITSUBA KANG YONG ELECTRIC PUBLIC THAI OBAYASHI 33

36 A. Ford GM BMW, 34

37 1 23% 22% FORD 19% 40% 36% JETRO[42] 32.8% 37.6% 42.5% [28] VAT 16 FORD 17 [28] 35

38 % 49% BIG 1995 Ford

39 CKD % 35% 67% 28% B. 70% JETRO 63.4% phillips

40 85% Nippon Super Precision 70% % C. Thai Obayashi Corporation LTD % 51%

42 JETRO [28] JETRO[43] 40

43 Hoshi-Kashyap[19] Nakajima-Nakamura-Yoshioka[39] 41

44 10 Yergin-Stanislaw[64] 42

45 [1] Alburo, Florian A. Economic Turmoil in Asia: Prospects for FDI Flows. Philippine Review of Economics and Business, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp , [2]. IMF.,, [3] Bhagwati, J. The Capital Myth. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, pp. 7 12, [4] Caballero, R.J. and A. Krishnamurthy. International and Domestic Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crisis. NBER Working Paper, No. 7971, [5] Calvo, G.A. and E.G. Mendoza. Mexico s Balance of Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of a Death Foretold. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41, pp , [6] Chang, Ching-Cheng and Yir-Hueih Luh. Efficiency Change and Growth in Productivity: the Asian Growth Experience. Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 10, pp , [7] Chang, R. and A. Velasco. Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model. NBER Working Paper, No. 6606, [8] Chuhan, Punam, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, and Helen Popper. International Capital Flows: Do Short-Term Investment and Direct Investment Differ?. Technical Report 1669, World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper. [9] Corsetti, G., P. Pesenti, and N. Roubini. Paper Tiger? A Model of the Asian Crisis. European Economic Review, Vol. 43, No. 7, pp , June [10] Diamond, D. and P. Dybvig. Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, pp , [11] Eichengreen, B., A. Rose, and C. Wyplosz. Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks. Economic Plicy, pp , [12] Fane, G. and R. H. Mcleod. Lessons for Monetary and Banking Policies from the Economic Crises in Indonesia nd Thailand. Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp , [13] Flood, R. and P. Garber. Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 1 13, [14] Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Andrew K. Rose. Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment, journal = Journal of International Economics, volume = 41, pages = , year = [15].., pp. 1 31, February [16].., Vol. 90, No. 2, pp , [17].., Vol. 50, No. 1, pp , [18] Harris, Richard G. and Nicolas Schmitt. Strategic Export Policy with Foreign Direct Investment and Import Substitution. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 62, pp , [19] Hoshi, T. and A. Kashyap. The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?. NBER Working Paper, No. 7250, [20]... [21] Johnson, C. Economic Crisis in East Asia: The Clash of Capitalisms. Journal of Economics, Vol. 22, pp ,

46 [22] , Vol. 1,, [23] Kaminsky, G.L. and C.M. Reinhart. The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems. Technical Report 544, Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March International Finance Discussion Paper. [24]..,, [25] Katz, S. S. The Asian Crisis, the IMF and the Critics. Eastern Economic Journal, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp , [26]..,., [27].., Vol. 5, pp. 4 45, [28]..,, [29]..,, [30] Kreinin, Mordechai E., Shigeyuki Abe, and Michael G. Plummer. Motives for Japanese DFI: Survey, Analysis, and Implications in Light of the Asian Crisis. Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 10, pp , [31] Krugman, P. A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 11, pp , [32] Krugman, P. The Myth of Asia s Miracle. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, pp , [33] Krugman, P. What Happened to Asia?. mimeo, January [34] Krugman, P. Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises. International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 6, pp , [35]..,, [36]..,, [37] Li, J. and S. Guisinger. Comparative Business Failures of Foreign-Controlled Firms in the United States. Journal of International Business Studies, Vol. 22, pp , [38] Nakajima, T. Measurement of Total Factor Productivity for Japan s Banking Industry Pre-Bubble, Bubble, and Post Bubble Period. Paper presented at APO Basic Research X 2nd Cordination Meeting, [39] Nakajima, T., M. Nakamura, and K. Yoshioka. Japan s Economic Growth: Past and Present. In M. Nakamura, editor, Japanese Business and Economic System. Macmillan, London, [40] JETRO. 1999, [41] JETRO., [42] JETRO. 1999/2000, [43] JETRO. 1998/1999, [44] JETRO. 2000, [45]..,

47 [46] , pp. 4 70, [47] Nitsch, D., P.W. Beamish, and S. Makino. Entry Mode and Performance of Japanese FDI in Western Europe. Management International Review, Vol. 36, pp , [48] Obstfeld, M. The Logic of Currency Crises. Cahiers economique et monetaires, Vol. 43, pp , [49] Obstfeld, M. Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Feaures. European Economic Review, Vol. 40, pp , [50] Radelet, S. and J. Sachs. The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects. Brokings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 1 90, [51]..,, [52] Siripaisalpirat, Pimonwan and Yasuo Hoshino. Firm-specific Advantages, Entry Modes, and Performance of Japanese FDI in Thailand. Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 12, pp , [53] Smarzynska, Beata K. and Shang-Jin Wei. Corruption and Composition of Foreign Direct Investment: Firm-Level Evidence. NBER Working Paper, No. 7969, [54] , pp. 4 65, [55].., pp. 4 70, [56] The ASEAN Secretariat. Compendium of Investment Policies and Measures in ASEAN Countries. The ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta, [57] Thompson, Edmund R. and Jessie P.H. Poon. ASEAN after the Financial Crisis: Links between Foreign Direct Investment and Regulatory Change. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 1 14, April [58] Tsurumi, H. Asian Financial Crisis. Prologue and the Case of Thailand. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 1 9, [59] United Nations. The Financial Crisis in Asia and FDI. World Investment Report: Trends and Determinants, pp , [60]..,., [61] Wade, R. and F. Veneroso. The Asian Crisis: The High Debt Model versus the Wall Street-Treasury-IMF Complex. New Left Review, Vol. 228, pp. 3 23, [62]. ASEAN5.,., [63] Woodcock, C.P., P.W. Beamish, and S. Makino. Ownership-based Entry Mode Strategies and International Performance. Journal of International Business Studies, Vol. 25, pp , [64] Yergin, D. and J. Stanislaw. The Commanding Heights : The Battle Between Government and the Marketplace That Is Remaking the Modern World. Simon & Schuster Books. [65] Young, A. The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Experience. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, pp , [66] Zhang, Kevin Honglin. Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ten East Asian Economies. Economia Internazionale, volume =. 45

Jeffrey Sachs Chang(1998) Steven Radelet and Jeffrey Sachs (1998) 1999 IMF 1999 World Bank 1998 [ 1998 ] 2000 p [ 20

Jeffrey Sachs Chang(1998) Steven Radelet and Jeffrey Sachs (1998) 1999 IMF 1999 World Bank 1998 [ 1998 ] 2000 p [ 20 62 1997 1996 1 1 2 1 Jeffrey Sachs1997 2 Chang(1998)Steven Radelet and Jeffrey Sachs (1998) 1999 IMF 1999 World Bank1998 [ 1998 ] 2000p.9196 [ 2003] 21 [ 2002 2000] [ 1998 1999 ] 1 62 21 3 4 5 6 90 7 3