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1 Gerald Segal, Defending China (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1985), p Mel Gourtov and Byong-Moo Hwang, China s Security: The New Roles of the Military (London: Lynne Rienner, 1998), pp
2 (PLAN: PLA Navy) Mark A. Ryan, David M. Finkelstein, and Michael A. McDevitt, eds., Chinese Warfighting: The PLA Experience Since 1949 (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2003), p M. Taylor Fravel, Regime Insecurity and International Cooperation: Explaining China s Compromises in Territorial Disputes, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp ; Allen R. Carlson, Constructing the Dragon s Scales: China s Approach to Territorial Sovereignty and Border Relations in the 1980s and 1990s, Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 12, No. 37 (November 2003), pp ; Alastair Iain Johnston, China s Militarized Interstate Dispute Behavior, : A First Cut at the Data, The China Quarterly, No. 153 (March 1998), pp Segal, Defending China, p
3 (Richard Nixon) Pacific Review Pacific Affairs International Security 8 Greg Austin, China s Ocean Frontier: International Law, Military Force and National Development (Canberra: Allen and Unwin, 1998), pp
4 1971 (Henry Kissinger) William Tow, China and the International Strategic System, in Thomas Robinson and David Shanbaugh, eds., Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (London: Clarendon, 1994), pp John W. Garver, Sino-Vietnamese Conflict and the Sino-American Rapproachement, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 96, No. 3 (Fall 1981), pp A. Doak Barnett, China and the Major Powers in East Asia (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1977), pp
5 (Nguyen Van Thieu) (Amphitrite Group) (Crescent Group) James H. Willbanks, Abandoning Vietnam: How America Left and South Vietnam Lost Its War (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2004)
6 15 (Robert Island)(Money Islands) (Woody Island) (Duncan Island) (Crescent Group) Qiang Zhai, China and the Vietnam Wars, (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2000), p
7 John W. Garver, China s Push Through the South China Sea: The Interaction of Bureaucratic and National Interests, The China Quarterly, No. 132 (December 1992) ), pp ; Ryan, Finkelstein, and McDevitt, Chinese Warfighting, p
8 (PLANAF: PLA Naval Air Force)6 19 (Pattle Island) Garver, China s Push Through the South China Sea, p Ryan, Finkelstein, and McDevitt, Chinese Warfighting, p Garver, China s Push Through the South China Sea, p Zhai, China and the Vietnam Wars, p
9 Chi-kin Lo, China s Policy Towards Territorial Disputes: The Case of the South China Sea (London: Routledge, 1989), p. 56. John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, Imagined Enemies: China Prepares for Uncertain War (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2006), p Marwyn S. Samuels, Contest for South China Sea (London: Routledge, 1982), p Segal, Defending China, p Zhai, China and Vietnam Wars, pp No
10 7 29 ASEAN
11 J6 31 (VNAF: the Vietnamese Air Force) (VNN: the Vietnamese Navy) F-5A (James H. Willbanks) GNP Segal, Defending China, p Willbanks, Abandoning Vietnam, pp ,
12 GDP ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Douglas C. Dacy, Foreign Aid, War, and Economic Development, South Vietnam, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1974), pp. 18, 20, Dacy, Foreign Aid, War, and Economic Development, South Vietnam, pp , GDP NationMaster.Com ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN
13 (power projection capability) ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Ryan, Finkelstein, and McDevitt, Chinese Warfighting, p
14 (Thomas J. Christensen) Marko Milivojeviċ, The Spratly and Paracel Islands Conflict, Survival, Vol. 31, No. 1 (January/February 1989), pp Jay H. Long, The Paracels Incident: Implications for Chinese Policy, Asian Affairs: An American Review (March/April 1974), p Thomas J. Christensen, Windows and War: Trends Analysis and Beijing s Use of Force, in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, eds., New Directions in the Study of China s Foreign Policy (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2006), pp
15 (Eric Hyer) (Chi-kin Lo) Samuels, Contest for the South China Sea, p Garver, China s Push Through the South China Sea, p Koichi Sato, China and the Maritime Disputes: A Comparative Study of the Spratlys and the Senkaku Islands, Obirin Review of International Studies, No. 19 (2008), pp Eric Hyer, The South China Sea Dispute: Implications of China s Earlier Territorial Settlements, Pacific Affairs, Vol. 68, No. 1 (Spring 1995), p
16 Lo, China s Policy Towards Territorial Disputes, p
17 Denny Roy, China s Foreign Relations (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 1998), p Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996). 54 X Y Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy, eds., Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals (New York: Routledge, 2007), pp
18 J Lo, China s Policy Towards Territorial Disputes, p M. Taylor Fravel, Power Shifts and Escalation: Explaining China s Use of Force in Territorial Disputes, International Security, Vol. 32, No. 3 (Winter 2007/08), p John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, China s Strategic Seapower: The Politics of Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1994), p Segal, Defending China, p
19 Samuels, Contest for the South China Sea, p Sheng Lijun, Beijing and the Spratlys, Issue and Studies, Vol. 31, No. 7 (July 1995), p You Ji, The Armed Forces of China (London: I. B. Tauris, 1999), Chien-peng Chung, Domestic Politics, International Bargaining and China s Territorial Disputes (London: Routledge-Curzon, 2004), p Robert Hartfiel and Brian L. Job, Raising the Risks of War: Defense Spending Trends and Competitive Arms Processes in East Asia, Pacific Review, Vol. 20, No. 1 (March 2007), pp
20 Helen Miler, The Assumption of Anarchy in International Relations Theory: A Critique, in David A. Baldwin, ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp Anne Gilks, The Breakdown of the Soviet-Vietnamese Alliance, (Berkeley: Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1992), p Kenneth Lieberthal, Internal Politics: China and the Soviet Union, in Herbert J. Ellison, ed., The Sino-Soviet Conflict: A Global Perspective (Seattle: The University of Washington Press, 1982), pp
21 (Gerald Segal) 66 Harry Harding, The Domestic Politics of China s Global Posture, , in Thomas Fingar, ed., China s Quest for Independence: Policy Evolution in the 1970s (Boulder: Westview Press, 1979), pp Qiang Zhai, China and the Vietnam Wars, (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2000), p Lo, China s Policy Towards Territorial Disputes, pp
22 Segal, Defending China, pp
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