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2 Balassa1961 embedded liberalism Ruggie Balassa, B The Theory of Economic Integration. London: George Allen & Unwin ( 1963.) 2 Ruggie, John Gerald International Regimes, transaction, and change: embedded liberalism in post war economic order. Krasner, Stephen D. ed. International Regimes. New York: Cornell , : AMU International Economic and Financial Review

3 managed integration controlled disintegration 1930 ASEAN+3 ASEAN G5 4 controlled disintegration [Hirsch,Fred] [Volker]] 5 ASEAN

4 Strange1988 Kindleberger1986 Gilpin Keohane1984 Strange beliefideastructure of knowledge 6 Strange, Susan State and Market. New York: Continuum. structural power (secrity structure)(production structure): financial structure (kowolege strucrure) 7 Kindleberger, Charles P International Public Goods without International Government. The American Economic Review 76.1:1-13.; 1973.The World in Depression California: University of California Press ( ) 8 Gilpin, Robert The Political economy of International Relations. New York: Free Press, KindlebergerGilpin Keohane Keohane 1980 Keohane, Robert After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. New Jersey: Princeton University Russet, Bruce M. The Mysterious Case Vanishing Hegemony, or Is Mark Twain Really Dead? International Organization, 39.2: Strange. op.cit

5 90 (a)(b) (c) a(b)c 13 Kindleberger. op.cit IMES Discussion Paper Series 2004-J

6 : (1973)

7 international public goods Kindleberger1986altruism club goods 17 Olson, Mancur The Logic of Collective Action. Cambridge; Harvard University Press Kindleberger op.cit

8 (a) (b)(c) c a b abc commons 20 Kindleberger. Ibid. 21 Camdessus, Michel International Financial and Monetary Stability: A Global Public Goods? International Monetary Fundhttp:// ). Camdessus 22 Rapoport, Anatol Experiments with N-person Social Traps 2: Tragedy of the Commons. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 32.3: ; Hardin, Garret Tragedy of the Commons. Science 162: RapoportHardin Tragedy of the Commons tragedy

9 abc a(c boundary 23 c

10 1997 ASEAN Leviathan George, Alexander L., and Andrew Bennet Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge: MIT Press Shift of Scheme from linear to spiral 21 COE :

11 ASEAN

12 ASEAN+3 ASEAN+3 ASEAN

13 ASEAN ASEAN

14 ASEAN ASEAN : 33 Boody, Elizabeth Politics and the Yen. Far Eastern Survey 6.11: ; Hunsberger, Warren S The Yen Bloc in Japan s Expansion Program. Far Eastern Survey 7.22: ; Lieu D. K The Sino- Japanese Currency War. Pacific Affairs 12.4: ; Stein, Guenther The Yen and the Sword. Pacific Affairs 12.1:5-19. Wu, Leonard T.K China s Monetary Dilemma, Far Eastern Survey 4.24: ; The War and western Interests in North China, Far Eastern Survey 6.17:

15 ASEAN : PHP A

16 xxvii-1xxix

17 : xvi-xviii

18 ) China s Monetary Dilemma, Far Eastern Survey

19 xx

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24 c (d

25

26

27 jyb c Hunsberger. op.cit

28 C C j YB C j ( YB) F( YB) CYB F (1) C F j ( YB ) F( YB) CYB F (2) ( j) F( YB) F( c) (3) C C j k C k ( K ) F( K ) C j F (4) c C k ( K ) F K C j F (5) j C 3 C j C C F ( K ) F( K ) C j 3 3 (6) c c F j ( K ) F K C j 3 (7) YB K F F(K ) ( K ) F a C a a

29

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31

32

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35 1930 Strange c 79 Strange. op. cit. 80 NN1 N1 N1 N1N

36 D E E E E inertia 81 Frankel, Jeffrey A Still the Lingua Franca. Foreign Affairs 74.4:

37 2000 ASEAN+3 CMI IMF.. IMF c 1979 EMS ERM EMS RCU

38 82 GDP EMS ECB EMS Kenen, Peter B., and Ellen E. Mead Regional Monetary Integration. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press. 84 ECU 70 ECU 10ECU 30 10EMS

39

40 Frankel Frankel Lingua Franca Frankel, op.cit. 86 Kindleberger 1974.op.cit. 87 Wang,Yunjiong Financial cooperation and integration in East Asia, Journal of Asian Economics 15, Wang CMI 88 Kurod and Kawai. op.cit AMUInternational Economic and Financial Review IIMA Newsletter 2.2, APEC OB

41 ASEAN+3 ASEAN+3 ASEAN

42 ASEAN+3 ASEAN+3 ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN EMS 1980 G7 G5/

43 peer pressure G G5G Putnam, Robert D. and Nicholas Bayne Hanging Together: Cooperation and Conflict in the Seven -Power Summits. London: SAGE Publications. 80 Putnam and Bayne

44 G G LTCM 90 International financial Architecture 92 IMF Camddessus: 1999 Camddessus 91 G7 html#g G1998 G7 Strengthening the International Financial Architecture:Report of G7 Finance Ministers to the Köln Economic Summithttp:// /english/if/if003.htm2008 G Camdessus, Michel International Financial and Monetary Stability: A Global Public Goods? International Monetary Fund )

45

46

47 G7 G7

48 ASEAN+3

49 Camddessus G ASEAN ASEAN+3 CMI ABMI CMI ABI CMI Kuroda, Haruhiko,and Kawai Masahiro Strengthening Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia. PRI Discussion Paper Series 03.A

50 96 CMI BSA CMI 2005 ASEAN AMF 97 ASEAN ASEAN FTA Dieter, H. and Higgot, R Exploring alternative theories of economic regionalism: From trade to finance in Asian co-operation, CGSGR Working paper 89/ CMI

51 1990 ASEAN Dieter and Higgot. cp.cit Ogata,Sadako.1992, Interdependence and internationalization. Glen Hook ed. The Internationalization of Japan. London and New York:Routledge Berger, Thomas U The Politics of Memory in Japanese Foreign Relations. In Berger, Thomas, Mike M. Mochizuki, and Tsuchiyama Jitsuro, eds. Japan in International Politics: The Foreign Policies of an Adaptive State. London: Lynne Rienner Publisher

52 a b(c) (a) b

53 c OECD OB OB 1970 :

54 G a b99 1 c 98 4 abc /0119sisei.html

55 117 adaptive Berger. op. cit. Berger diffensive 118 Berger. Ibid. adaptive

56 1999 G (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (a)(b)(c)(d)(e) (e) (d)(e) (b)(c) a

57 G3 EMSERM 2001 G3 EMSERM G3 ab 121 OB 2005: a way of reconciling stability with flexibility ASEM

58 IMFCMI 2003 ACUG3 G3 G ERM 79 EMS

59 G3 G3 G :

60 ASEAN3 CMI

61 2006 ASEAN+3 ADB ASEAN+3 ASEAN ASEAN3 htm ADB ADB ACU

62 % LTCM G7 99 G G :

63 IT IT G k010319a.htm

64 G7 Geopolitical uncertainties G

65 EU G EU reference rate Taylor, John B Global Financial Warriors: The Untold Story of International Finance in the Post 9/11 World. New York: WW. Norton& Company, Taylor G Taylor op.cit Taylor Exit Strategy 110 consultation

66 141 reversion 99 ASEAN G7 Taylor ( ) pdf reverberationputnam, Robert D Diplomacy and Domestic Politics, the logic of two level games. In Evans, Peter B. Jacobson, Harold K. and Robert Putnam D. Doubled- Edged Diplomacy. University California Press.Patnum 2 level game ASEAN+3 ASEAN ESP

67 2005 ASEAN ASEAN (a) ASEAN ASEAN 1995 ASEAN ASEAN 97 ASEAN 144 ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN 1997 APEC ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN ASEAN 2003 ASEAN 2020 ASEAN

68 ASEAN AEC 2015 AEC 147 AEC freer flowasean ASEAN ASEAN (a)(b)(c)(d)asean 2003 ASEAN+3 ABMI 148 ASEAN ASEAN (b) Declaration on the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Annual Report

69 ASEAN detail.asp?col=310&id=

70 ASEAN 2001 WTO WTO Times Finance 吴 翀 2007 翀

71 G G CMI ASEAN CMI ASEAN Financial Times Kuroda, Haruhiko and Masahiro Kawai Time for a Switch to Global Reflation. Financial Times, November 30, Statement of Secretary John W. Snow on the FOREX Reporthttp://www. treas.gov/press/releases/js2449.htm Report to Congress International Economic and Exchange /press/releases/reports/js2448_report.pdf

72 97 IMF AMF2006 ASEAN+3 ASEAN ASEAN ~2003 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN

73 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEA ASEAN+3 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN AMF CMI 90 ASEAN

74 ASEAN CMI ABI ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN+3 ruled integration ASEAN

75 ASEAN+3 ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN

76 LTCM NY CMI : IMF IFS-online 2000 = ( ) :

77 IMF (IMS online)*, **

78 贵 纳 统 计 际

Walter et al. 2009: 1 Helleiner 1994 Strange 1971: Gilpin 1987: -65 Strange b, 1998c,

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