RCP8.5 AGCM-NHRCM CMIP5 AGCM-NHRCM SST / 1 MRI-AGCM3.2S NHRCM05 NHRCM02 c. 研究計画 方法 スケジュール RCP8.5 AGCM-NHRCM CMIP5 AGCM-NHRCM RCP RCP
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1 2. 領域課題 (ⅱ) 汎用シナリオ整備とメカニズム解明 2.1. (a) 汎用シナリオ整備と顕著現象変化メカニズム解明 a. 要約 20km 5km 2km RCP2.6 20km 5km 2km 60km 20km 100 D 60km Clausius- Clapeyron / d4pdf CMIP5 MRI- AGCM3.2H/S CMIP5 5km 2km 5km 2km 2km NHRCM02 5km NHRCM05 d4pdf 100 SST b. 研究目的 1 RCP8.5 41
2 RCP8.5 AGCM-NHRCM CMIP5 AGCM-NHRCM SST / 1 MRI-AGCM3.2S NHRCM05 NHRCM02 c. 研究計画 方法 スケジュール RCP8.5 AGCM-NHRCM CMIP5 AGCM-NHRCM RCP RCP CMIP6 AGCM-NHRCM 1km NHRCM d. 平成 29 年度研究計画 60km 5km 2km CMIP5 42
3 20km 5km 2km 60km 20km 100 D e. 平成 29 年度研究成果 1. 全球グループの成果 1.1. 温暖化に伴う熱帯北西太平洋の降水変化 : 気象研高解像度大気モデルと CMIP5 モデルの比較 はじめに MRI- AGCM3.2; Mizuta et al., 2012 CMIP5 CMIP5-AOGCM 26 C p111 9 SST MRI-AGCM3.2 CO 2 SST CMIP5-AGCM CMIP5-AOGCM 実験設定/ 60km MRI-AGCM3.2 Yoshimura Yoshimura, amip SST CO 2 4 amip4xco2 SST 4 amip4k SST 4 amipfuture amipfuture SST ΔSST CMIP3 1 CO 2 28 C p114 10a amip SST amippattern amipfuture amip4k amipfuture ΔSST 4 CMIP5-AGCM 9 AGCM MRI-CGCM3 MRI-AGCM3.3 MRI-AGCM3.2 Yukimoto et al.,
4 2 amip 25 S-25 N GPCP 結果 amip 6 8 JJA GPCP: Huffman et al., MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP5 MRI-CGCM3 CMIP5 amip4xco2/amip4k/amippattern JJA 3 amip4xco2 Shaw and Voigt, 2015 amip4k SST Wet-get-wetter WeGW Held, 2006 SST 4 30 WeGW amippattern ΔSST Warmer-get-wetter WaGW Xie et al., 2010 SST mm day 1 a c MRI-AGCM3.2 d f CMIP5 9 AGCM a d amip4xco2 b e amip4k c f amippattern d f /
5 4 WeGW WaGW amip4k WeGW amippattern WaGW MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP S-25 N a amip amip4k WeGW b ΔSST amippattern WaGW amip4xco2 amip4k amippattern MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP5 amip4k amip4xco2 MRI-CGCM 考察/ MRI-AGCM3.2 amip4k amip4k WeGW amip4k MRI-AGCM3.2 amip4k MRI-AGCM3.2 amippattern 5 amip SST AGCM SST Wang et al.,
6 5 6 8 SST amip / AGCM 6a SST x ΔSST amippattern WaGW y AGCM SST AGCM WaGW amippattern 3c f ΔSST 6 a x amip SST 5 y ΔSST amippattern WaGW 4b b x a y AOGCM historical x a MRI-AGCM
7 SST AGCM AOGCM 6b AOGCM AGCM AGCM SST まとめ MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP5 amip4k amip4xco2 MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP5 amippattern MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP5 Wet-get-wetter WeGW MRI-AGCM3.2 amip4k MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP5 SST Warmer-get-wetter WaGW MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP5 MRI-AGCM3.2 WaGW CMIP3 SST H19 H23 MRI-AGCM3.2 CMIP3-AOGCM 26 C p CMIP3 CMIP5 ΔSST AGCM WaGW 1.2. 日本域の降水量の将来変化/ Kusunoki 2017a 20km 60km MRI-AGCM3.2S, H Yoshimura YS; Yoshimura et al Arakawa-Schubert AS; Randal and Pan 1993 Kain-Fritsch KF; Kain and Fritsch the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 4 C0, C1, C2, C3 Mizuta et al. 2014: Fig. 2 Representative Concentration Pathway RCP; Meinshausen et al Kusunoki 2017a MRI-AGCM3.2 YS C0 RCP8.5 Ogata et al Kusunoki 2017a the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change d4pdf 60km YS RCP8.5 47
8 Mizuta et al a 60km b 60km c, d e, f g d4pdf g MRI-AGCM3.2S, H 7 MRI-AGCM RCP8.5 CMIP5 C0 Mizuta et al. 2014: Fig. 2a 95 a 20km YS b a 60km c b AS d b KF e a f b g 60km d4pdf a, e 20km b-d f g 60km a b e f g YS 1.3. 将来の昇温量と降水変化の関係 1 Kusunoki 2017b 60km Kusunoki 2017a 60km Vecchi and Soden 2007 Clausius- 48 /
9 Clapeyron C-C 7.5 /K 8a PAVE Polar amplification Kusunoki et al R5d 8b PAVE PAVE PMAX 8c R5d 8 /K 60km RCP /K a PAVE b 5 R5d c PMAX Kusunoki 2017b Fig a PAVE AS YS C1 C b PAVE PMAX R5d PMAX Kusunoki et al PAVE AS 49 /
10 9a R5d PMAX YS K 2 a PAVE Y:YS, A:AS, K:KF :C0 :C1 :C2 :C3, Mizuta et al. 2014: Fig. 2 b :PAVE, :R5d, :PMAX YS AS KF 7.5 /K 4 a Kusunoki 2017b Fig 極端降水量変化の要因分析 1 10 Clausius-Clapeyron C-C / e.g. O Gorman and Schneider d4pdf; Mizuta et al C-C /
11 g/kg R1d etc. d4pdf E, 0 N 925hPa LFC LNB 4 LFC LNB 51 /
12 LNB LNB 13 LFC LNB LFC LNB E, 0 N a b c, d LFC LNB /
13 1.5. 大規模アンサンブルデータ d4pdf を用いた台風の将来変化 database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change; d4pdf d4pdf データと手法 d4pdf d4pdf 60km MRI-AGCM3.2H COBE-SST CMIP5 6 CCSM4 GFDL-CM3 HadGEM2-AO MIROC5 MPI-ESM-MR MRI-CGCM3 RCP COBE-SST Mizuta et al d4pdf web Unisys Weather Hurricane/Tropical data Murakami et al / MRI-AGCM3.2H Sugi et al 台風の発生数と各指標
14 Yoshida et al IPCC 1 AR5 / Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 4, km 9 28 AR5 AR5 d4pdf RCP8.5 SRES-A1b Murakami et al MRI- AGCM3.2H SRES-A1b 24 AR Knutson et al Knutson et al
15 km GL NH SH NIO WNP ENP NAT SIO SPA Yoshida et al / 台風の存在頻度分布 16 55
16 16 ALL CAT4-5 a, b c, d e, f 99 Yoshida et al Knutson et al f 500 hpa 850 hpa 200 hpa /
17 1.6. 極端降水量の変化と台風の役割 Kitoh and Endo km RCP8.5 1 Rx1d km CMIP3 SRES-A1B 3 60km Rx1d TRMM 20km Rx1d Rx1d 500 km 21 Rx1d 20km Rx1d Rx1d Rx1d km 120 E 150 E a 1 Rx1d 95 b Rx1d 95 c Rx1d 95 d e f 57 /
18 1.7. CMIP5 マルチモデルとの比較でみる MRI-AGCM3.2H/S による気候変動予測情報の特徴 : 地域別の降水量と地上気温の季節平均値 MRI-AGCM3.2H MRI-AGCM3.2S 60 km 20 km MRI-AGCM3.2H/S MRI-AGCM3.2H d4pdf; Mizuta et al GPCP1dd CMIP5 58 /
19 20 CMIP5 25 ile 75 ile MRI-AGCM3.2H/S MRI- AGCM3.2H/S CMIP5 CMIP5 59 /
20 MRI-AGCM3.2H/S CMIP5 48 RCP MRI- AGCM3.2H/S RCP MRI-AGCM3.2H/S RCP8.5 CMIP 28 SST 1 GPCP1dd ver. 1.2 JRA-55 ERA interim 1.25 GPCP1dd GPCP ver.2.2 GPCP25d GPCP25d GPCP25d GPCP1dd MRI-AGCM3.2H/S Europe Africa Asia AusNZ NAmerica SAmerica 6 19 MRI-AGCM3.2H/S CMIP5 48 CMIP5 MRI-AGCM3.2H/ S MRI-AGCM3.2H/S / CMIP5 MRI-AGCM3.2H MRI-AGCM3.2S MRI-AGCM3.2H MRI-AGCM3.2S 20 MRI-AGCM3.2H/S CMIP5 CMIP5 MRI-AGCM3.2H/S CMIP5 MRI-AGCM3.2H/S MRI-AGCM3.2H/S MRI- AGCM3.2H/S CMIP5 60
21 2. 領域グループの成果 2.1. 雲解像地域気候モデルによる極端な降水量の将来予測 2km NHRCM NHRCM02 5km NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM RCP8.5 CMIP5 C0 CMIP5 Mizuta et al C1, C2, C R99 R99 21 N E W J P 21 7 NJ NP EJ EP WJ WP SI 22a R99 NJ NP EJ R99 R99 R99 "AL" NJ NP EJ NJ 15 NJ R99 NJ 22b NJ R NJ 61 /
22 22 a R99 b NJ R C0 C3 a AL 7 NJ 23 7 R99 23 NJ 7 R99 Murata et al NJ 7 R99 62 /
23 2.2. 中部山岳の積雪の解像度依存性 ~ NHRCM02 と NHRCM05 の比較 ~ C MRI-AGCM20 5km 2km NHRCM NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM05 1 Murata et al NHRCM02 NHRCM02 NHRCM JRA-55 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM MRI-AGCM Kawase et al NHRCM /16 4 2,450m 2009 B 2014/15 24 a 20km 5km 2km b NHRCM02 c NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 b 63 /
24 24 NHRCM02 NHRCM05 25 NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM 25 4 NHRCM05 NHRCM /15 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM05 2km SiB 64 /
25 2014/ ,000m NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM05 3 1,000cm 25 1,500m NHRCM05 150cm NHRCM02 26b 1,000m NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 26c 26d NHRCM05 24c NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM02 SiB SiB 26 NHRCM05 SiB NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM02 NHRCM02 NHRCM05 17 / 27 NHRCM05 NHRCM NHRCM05 NHRCM NHRCM05 1,000m 2,000m NHRCM02 NHRCM05 24c NHRCM02 NHRCM05 65
26 2,450m NHRCM02 NHRCM05 NHRCM05 1,000m 2,000m NHRCM05 NHRCM d4pdf の非温暖化実験と過去実験の追加ダウンスケーリング d4pdf Mizuta et al Kawase et al. 2016, Endo et al d4pdf km MRI-AGCM60 20km NHRCM20 SI-CAT 2 d4pdf MRI-AGCM WEB Mizuta et al d4pdf / Shiogama et al NHRCM20 50 C d4pdf NHRCM d4pdf A C SST SST 66
27 29 SST SST 28 NHRCM20km 100mm /
28 29 28 A A MRI- /AGCM A 2.4. 汎用気候シナリオプロダクトラン 20km 5km 2km RCP2.6 20km 5km 60km 20km 100 D D f. 引用文献 2009: Endo, H., A. Kitoh, R. Mizuta, and M. Ishii, 2017: Future changes in precipitation extremes in East Asia and their uncertainty based on large ensemble simulations with a high-resolution AGCM. SOLA, 13, 7-12, doi: /sola O Gorman, P.A. and T. Schneider, 2009: Scaling of precipitation extremes over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized GCM, J. Climate, 22, Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Climate, 19, Huffman, G. J., R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and G. Gu, 2009: Improving the global precipitation record: 68
29 GPCP Version 2.1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L Kain, J. S. and J. M. Fritsch, 1990: A one-dimensional entraining/ detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, , doi: / (1990)047<2784:aodepm>2.0.co;2. Kawase, H., A. Yamazaki, H. Iida, K. Aoki, H. Sasaki, A. Murata, and M. Nosaka, 2018: Simulation of extremely small amounts of snow observed at high elevations over the Japanese Northern Alps in the 2015/16 winter, SOLA, accepted. Kawase, H., A. Murata, R. Mizuta, H. Sasaki, M. Nosaka, and I. Takayabu, 2016: Enhancement of heavy daily snowfall in central Japan due to global warming as projected by large ensemble of regional climate simulations, Climatic Change, 139, doi: /s Kitoh, A. and H. Endo, 2016: Future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Niño projected by a global 20-km mesh atmospheric model, SOLA, 12A, 1-6. Knutson, T. R. et al., 2015: Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twentyfirst century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios, J. Clim., doi: / JCLI-D Kusunoki, S., 2017a: Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2, Clim. Dyn., doi: /s Kusunoki, S., 2017b: Future changes in global precipitation projected by the atmospheric model MRI- AGCM3.2H with a 60-km Size, Atmosphere, 8, 93, doi: /atmos Kusunoki, S., R. Mizuta and M. Hosaka, 2015: Future changes in precipitation intensity over the Arctic projected by a global atmospheric model with a 60-km grid size, Polar Science, 9, , doi: /j.polar Meinshausen, M., S. J. Smith, K. Calvin, J. S. Daniel, M. L. T. Kainuma, J-F. Lamarque, K. Matsumoto, S. A. Montzka, S. C. B. Raper, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, G. J. M. Velders, D.P and P. /van Vuuren, 2011: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213, doi: /s z. Mizuta, R., A. Murata, M. Ishii, H. Shiogama, K. Hibino, N. Mori, O. Arakawa, Y. Imada, K. Yoshida, T. Aoyagi, H. Kawase, M. Mori, Y. Okada, T. Shimura, T. Nagatomo, M. Ikeda, H. Endo, M. Nosaka, M. Arai, C. Takahashi, K. Tanaka, T. Takemi, Y. Tachikawa, K. Temur, Y. Kamae, M. Watanabe, H. Sasaki, A. Kitoh, I. Takayabu, E. Nakakita, and M. Kimoto, 2017: Over 5000 years of ensemble future climate simulations by 60 km global and 20 km regional atmospheric models, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, Mizuta, R., O. Arakawa, T. Ose, S. Kusunoki, H. Endo, and A. Kitoh, 2014: Classification of CMIP5 future climate responses by the tropical sea surface temperature changes, SOLA, 10, , doi: /sola Mizuta R., H. Yoshimura, H. Murakami, M. Matsueda, H. Endo, T. Ose, K. Kamiguchi, M. Hosaka, M. Sugi, S. Yukimoto, S. Kusunoki, and A. Kitoh, 2012: Climate simulations using MRI- AGCM3.2 with 20-km grid, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, Murakami, H., Mizuta, R., and Shindo, E., 2012: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-sst ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM, Climate Dynamics, 39(9-10), , doi: /s x. Murata A., H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, and M. Nosaka, 2016: Evaluation of precipitation over an oceanic region of Japan in convection-permitting regional climate model simulations, Climate Dynamics, doi: /s x. Murata, A., H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, M. Nosaka, T. Aoyagi, M. Oh izumi, N. Seino, F. Shido, K. Hibino, K. Ishihara, H. Murai, S. Yasui, S. Wakamatsu, and I. Takayabu, 2017: Projection of future climate change over Japan in ensemble simulations using a convection-permitting regional 69
30 climate model with urban canopy, SOLA, 13, , doi: /sola Ogata, T., R. Mizuta, Y.Adachi, H. Murakami and T. Ose, 2015: Effect of air-sea coupling on the frequency distribution of intense tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10, , 421, doi: /2015gl Randall, D. Aa and D. M. Pan, 1993: Implementation of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization with a prognostic closure. In: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Meteorological Monographs, Chap. 11, vol 24 (46), Shaw, T. A., and A. Voigt, 2015: Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming, Nat. Geosci., 8, , doi: /ngeo2449. Shiogama, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, R. Mizuta, D. Stone, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa, M. Ikeda, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events, SOLA, 12, Sugi, M., Murakami, H., and Yoshida, K., 2016: Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, Clim. Dyn., 49, , doi: /s Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation, J. Climate, 20, , doi: /jcli Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla, and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, doi: /2005gl Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall, J. Clim., 23, , doi: /2009jcli Yoshida, K., Sugi, M., Mizuta, R., Murakami, H., and Ishii, M., 2017: Future changes in tropical /cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, , doi: /2017gl Yoshimura, H., R. Mizuta, and H. Murakami (2015), A spectral cumulus parameterization scheme interpolating between two convective updrafts with semi-lagrangian calculation of transport by compensatory subsidence, Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, Yukimoto et al., 2012: A new global climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI- CGCM3 Model description and basic performance, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, g. 成果の発表 ( 1 ) 原著論文 ( 発行 印刷済み ) Ha, K.-J., J.-Y. Lee, B. Wang, S.-P. Xie, and A. Kitoh, 2017: Asian monsoon climate change - Understanding and prediction, Asia-Pac. J., Atmos. Sci, 53, 2, , doi: /s x. Kawase, H., A. Yamazaki, H. Iida, K. Aoki, W. Shimada, H. Sasaki, A. Murata, and M. Nosaka, 2018: Simulation of extremely small amounts of snow observed at high elevations over the Japanese Northern Alps in the 2015/16 winter, SOLA, 14, 39-45, doi: /sola Kawase, H., T. Sasai, T. Yamazaki, R. Ito, K. Dairaku, S. Sugimoto, H. Sasaki, A. Murata, and M. Nosaka, 2018: Characteristics of synoptic conditions for heavy snowfall in western to northeastern Japan analyzed by the 5-km regional climate ensemble experiments, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 96, doi: /jmsj , 2017:,, 34, 2, Kusunoki, S., 2017: Future changes in global precipitation projected by the atmospheric model MRI- AGCM3.2H with a 60-km size, Atmosphere, 8, 5, 93, doi: /atmos
31 Kusunoki, S., 2018: How will the onset and retreat of rainy season over East Asia change in future? Atmos. Sci. Lett., Accepted. Matsueda, M. and H. Endo, 2017: The robustness of future changes in Northern Hemisphere blocking: A large ensemble projection with multiple sea surface temperature patterns, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, , doi: /2017gl Murata, A., H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, M. Nosaka, T. Aoyagi, M. Oh izumi, N. Seino, F. Shido, K. Hibino, K. Ishihara, H. Murai, S. Yasui, S. Wakamatsu, and I. Takayabu, 2017: Projection of future climate change over Japan in ensemble simulations using a convection-permitting regional climate model with urban canopy, SOLA, 13, , doi: /sola Nakaegawa, T., K. Hibino, I. Takayabu, Identifying climate analogues for cities in Australia by a nonparametric approach using multi-ensemble, high-horizontal-resolution future climate projections by an atmospheric general circulation model, MRI-AGCM3.2H, Hydrological Research Letters, 11, 72-78, doi: /hrl Niwano, M., T. Aoki, A. Hashimoto, S. Matoba, S. Yamaguchi, T. Tanikawa, K. Fujita, A. Tsushima, Y. Iizuka, R. Shimada, and M. Hori, 2018: NHM-SMAP: spatially and temporally high-resolution nonhydrostatic atmospheric model coupled with detailed snow process model for Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 12, , doi: /tc Okada, Y., T. Takemi, H. Ishikawa, S. Kusunoki, and R. Mizuta, 2017: Future changes in atmospheric conditions for the seasonal evolution of the baiu as revealed from projected AGCM experiments, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 95, 4, , doi: /jmsj Ose, T., 2017: Future precipitation change during summer in East Asia and model dependence in highresolution MRI-AGCM experiments, Hydrological Research Letters, 11, 3, , doi: / hrl Pinzon, R., K. Hibino, I. Takayabu, and T. Nakaegawa, 2017: Virtually experiencing future climate /changes in Central America with MRI-AGCM: climate analogues study, Hydrological Research Letters, 11, 2, , doi: /hrl Rahman, M. M., N. Ferdousi, S. M. A. Abdullah, and S. Kusunoki: Recent climate simulation over SAARC region including Bangladesh using high resolution AGCM, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Accepted. Sugi, M, Y. Imada, and T. Nakaegawa. Estimating probability of extreme rainfall over Japan using Extended Regional Frequency Analysis, Hydrological Research Letters, 11, 19-23, doi: / hrl Surendran, S., S. Gadgil, K. Rajendran, S. J. Varghese, and A. Kitoh, 2018: Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific, Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi: /s Yoshida, K., M. Sugi, R. Mizuta, H. Murakami, and M. Ishii, 2017: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations, AGU, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 19, , doi: /2017gl ( 投稿中 ) Endo, H., A. Kitoh, and H. Ueda: A unique feature of the Asian summer monsoon response to global warming: The role of different land-sea thermal contrast change between the lower and upper troposphere, SOLA. ( 2 ) その他 報告書など No
32 ( 3 ) 著書 ( 発行 印刷済み ) 2017 NHK NHK 160 pp GCM ( 印刷中 ) Surendran, S., K. Rajendran, A. Kitoh and R.S. Nanjundiah, Assessment of Climate Change Projection for the State of Kerala. In: Climate Change of Kerala. Kerala State Planning Board Publication. Kitoh, A.: Climate Change Projection over Turkey with a High-Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model. In: T. Watanabe, R. Kanber and S. Kapur (eds.), Climate Change Impacts on Basin Agro-ecosystems, Springer Hexagon Series. ( 投稿中 ) Kitoh, A.: Atmosphere. In: Y. Himiyama (ed.), Human Geoscience, Springer. Kitoh, A.: Climate change. In: Y. Himiyama (ed.), Human Geoscience, Springer. Kitoh, A. and H. Endo: Future Changes in Global Monsoon Precipitation and their Uncertainty: /Results from 20-km and 60-km MRI-AGCM Ensemble Simulations. In: The Multi-Scale Global Monsoon System. World Scientific Publishing ( 4 ) 学会 研究集会等 /10/30-11/2 Endo, H., A. Kitoh, and H. Ueda, A unique feature of the Asian summer monsoon response to global warming: The role of different land-sea thermal contrast change between the lower and upper troposphere. The third International Workshop on Climate change and Precipitation in the East Asia, Tokyo, Japan, 2018/2/22 Imada, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Mori, C. Takahashi, Y. Kamae, M. Watanabe, R Mizuta, M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Large ensemble and long-term climate simulations with high-resolution MRI-AGCM and NHRCM - Application to Event Attribution study -, International Detection and Attribution Group Meeting 2018, Berkeley, USA, 2018/03/14 Imada, Y., H. Shiogama, C. Takahashi, Y. Kamae, M. Mori, M. Watanabe, R. Mizuta, M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Event attribution with large-ensemble simulations generated by MRI-AGCM, International Workshop on Climate Downscaling Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, 2017/10/2-4 Imada, Y., H. shiogama, M. Mori, C. Takahashi, Y. Kamae, M. Watanabe, R Mizuta, M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Large ensemble and long-term climate simulations with high-resolution MRI-AGCM and NHRCM - Application to Event Attribution study -, International Detection and Attribution Group Meeting 2018, Berkeley, USA, 2018/03/14 72
33 Kawase, H., H. Sasaki, A. Murata, M. Nosaka, I. Takayabu, R. Ito, T. Sasai, T. Yamazaki, S. Sugimoto, Future changes in extremely heavy winter precipitation around Japan projected by regional climate models, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 14th Annual Meeting (AOGS2017), Suntec City, Singapore, 2017/8/6-11 Kawase, H., H. Sasaki, A. Murata, M. Nosaka, I. Takayabu, T. Sasai, T. Yamazaki, Past simulation and future projection of snowfall over mountainous areas in central Japan, International Workshop on Climate Downscaling Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, 2017/10/ /10/30-11/2? /11/22 Kawase H., H. Sasaki, A. Murata, M. Nosaka, I. Takayabu, R. Ito, K. Dairaku, T. Sasai, T. Yamazaki, S. Sugimoto, S. Watanabe, M. Fujita, S. Kawazoe, Y. Okada, M. Ishii, and R. Mizuta, Future projections of total snowfall and heavy daily snowfall in Japan simulated by large ensemble regional climate simulations, AGU 2017 Fall Meeting, New Orleans, USA, 2017/12/11-15 Kitoh, A., H. Endo, R. Mizuta, H. Kawai and O. Arakawa, Future changes in global monsoon precipitation and their uncertainty: results from high-resolution MRI-AGCM ensemble simulation with multi-ssts and multi-physics, IWM-VI, Singapore, 2017/11/ /5/25-28 Kusunoki, S., Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2, ACM2017, Busan, South Korea, 2017/10/23-24 d4pdf 2017 /2017/10/30-11/2 Kusunoki, S., Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by massive ensemble simulations with a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model, IWM-VI, Singapore, 2017/11/12-17 Kusunoki, S., Future changes in precipitation over the arctic projected by massive ensemble simulations with a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model, The Eighth Symposium on Polar Science, NIPR, Tokyo, 2017/12/ /1/15-18 Mizuta, R., H. Shiogama, A. Murata, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa, H. Endo, M. Ishii, I. Takayabu, E. Nakakita, and M. Kimoto, Large ensemble climate simulations with high-resolution AGCM and RCM, International Symposium on Earth-Science Challenges 2017, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 2017/10/ /10/30-11/2 JAMSTEC 2017/11/ /5/25-28 Murata, A., H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, M. Nosaka, T. Aoyagi, M. Oh izumi, and K. Saito, Evaluation of errors in precipitation over Japan reproduced by the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM), 5th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models, Montreal, 73
34 Canada, 2017/6/19-23 Murata, A, H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, M. Nosaka, T. Aoyagi, and M. Oh izumi, Projection of heavy precipitation over Japan in ensemble simulations with a convection-permitting regional climate model, AOGS2017, Suntec City, Singapore, 2017/8/ /10/30-11/ /10/30-11/2 2017/8/ ArCS Oshima, N. and M. Koike, Modeling studies of black carbon using a MRI Earth System Model, AMAP short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) expert group meeting, Helsinki, Finland, 2018/1/29-31 Takayabu, I. and K. Tsuboki, Introduction of Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) theme C: Integrated Climate Projection, ACM2017, Busan, South Korea, 2017/10/ /10/30-11/2 / /7/ /10/30-11/2 d4pdf /10/30-11/2 d4pdf JAMSTEC 2017/11/ /11/20 ( 5 ) アウトリーチ活動 ( 講演 研修 報道 新聞 テレビ ラジオ等 ) 2017/12/21 NHK /7/7 7/14 7/21 7/28 8/4 8/11 8/18 8/25 9/1 9/8 9/15 9/22 9/29 WCRP WMO Future Earth WCRP S 2017/7/28 74
35 - 2017/9/ /9/23 IPCC SI-CAT 2018/1/ /5/ IoT /5/25 Kusunoki, S., International cooperation with Latin America through atmospheric global model of MRI, Estudios del cambio climático utilizando aplicaciones de reducción de escala dinámicas: caso de panamá, Wyndham Hotel, Panama City, Panama, 2017/9/18 Kusunoki, S., United Nations University downscale training course using atmospheric global model of MRI, Estudios del cambio climático utilizando aplicaciones de reducción de escala dinámicas: caso de panamá, Wyndham Hotel, Panama City, Panama, 2017/9/18 Kusunoki, S., Global Warming Projection, Panama City, Panama, 2017/9/19-29 Kusunoki, S., Practice training using output of global warming projections with 20-km mesh atmospheric global model, Panama City, Panama, 2017/9/19-29 Kusunoki, S., Future precipitation change over Panama projected by 20-km mesh atmospheric global model, Panama City, Panama, 2017/9/19-29 Kusunoki, S., Guide to make figures, Panama City, Panama, 2017/9/ / 2017/5/ /12/2 Nakaegawa, T., History of collaborations on climate change studies between Panama and Japan, Estudios del cambio climático utilizando aplicaciones de reducción de escala dinámicas: caso de Panamá,Wyndham Hotel, Panama City, Panama, 2017/9/18 Nakaegawa, T., Future change in water balance in continental-scale river basins under a greenhouse gas emission scenario, CATHALAC, Panama City, Panama, 2017/09/19 Nakaegawa, T., Future climate projections and future impact assessments on water resources, CATHALAC, Panama City, Panama, 2017/09/19-29 Nakaegawa, T., New features of IPCC AR6, Technological University of Panama, Panama City, Panama, 2017/09/19-29 Nakaegawa, T., A proposal about impact Assessment of REDD on regional climate and each sectors in Japan, MiAmbiante, Panama City, Panama, 2017/09/19-29 Nakaegawa, T., How to contribute to AR6-Final Remarks, Technological University of Panama, Panama City, Panama, 2017/09/29 17 R /2/ /2/
36 2017/10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ NHK 2017/10/ J 2017/10/ /11/ /11/ /1/1 76 /
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Title CMIP5マルチモデルにおける温暖化時の冬季の強い低気圧の増加 Author(s) 水田, 亮 Citation 週間及び1か月予報における顕著現象の予測可能性 (2013): 240-245 Issue Date 2013-03 URL http://hdl.handle.net/2433/173471 Right Type Article Textversion publisher
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資料 5 気候変動を踏まえた治水計画の前提となる外力の設定手法 平成 30 年 4 月 12 日 1 IPCC 第 5 次報告書における排出ガスの抑制シナリオ 最新の IPCC 第 5 次報告書 (AR5) では 温室効果ガス濃度の推移の違いによる 4 つの RCP シナリオが用意されている パリ協定における将来の気温上昇を 2 以下に抑えるという目標に相当する排出量の最も低い RCP2.6 や最大排出量に相当する
物流からみた九州地方の地域的都市システムの変容
Working Paper Series Vol. 2009-05 2009 2 Working Paper 14 10 13 18 194-0298 4342 E-mail pakugen69@hosei.ac.jp 1 Pred 1977 1985 1994 2001 Murayama 1982,1984 Friedmann 1986 1994 2001 1 2 1979 1984 1991 2005