SRES 4 A1 A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1 B1 21 IS92a IPCC 1994 IPCC % IPCC IPCC 1996 SRES IS c SRES A2 B2 MRI2 / CCSR/NIES2 HadCM2 CGCM2
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1 IPCC SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC, a SRES IS92 IPCC, b CH 4 N 2 O CFCs c IPCC 21
2 SRES 4 A1 A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1 B1 21 IS92a IPCC 1994 IPCC % IPCC IPCC 1996 SRES IS c SRES A2 B2 MRI2 / CCSR/NIES2 HadCM2 CGCM2 CSM1.3 DOE PCM GFDL_R30_c CSIRO Mk3 ECHAM4/OPYC IPCC A2 224
3 km 4.5 B2 MRI CGCM A2 CCSR B2 NIES FRCGC CCSR NIES FRCGC 35 SRES 100km 20km K SRES A2 2.5 SRES B K SRES B1 3.0 SRES A1B SRES 35 SRES 2100 IPCC A
4 SRES A K 1 SRES A1B
5 A 5 227
6 SRES A2 B A2 3.9% 1.3% 6.8% B2 3.3% 1.2% 6.1% A2 B2 A2 B IPCC SRES A
7 K SRES B1 5.2 A1B B 4 229
8 SRES m 0.88m 0.48m SRES 35 SRES SRES A cm SRES B2 12cm IPCC SRES A E 1 230
9 E 2 IPCC
10 Heat index IPCC very likely 90 99% likely 66 90% Heat index
11 SRES A A
12 A
13 Luterbacher et al., Meehl and Tebaldi 2004; Black et al., SRES A1B Stot et al Schär et al Schär and Jendritzky B
14 B
15 *** *** ** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** ** *? ** ** *** virtually certain ** very likely * likely? medium likelihood
16 20km MRI RCM SRES A2 RCM 60 RCM20 238
17 RCM20 RCM20 RCM RCM20 RCM
18 RCM
19
20 mm
21 SRES A1B 100km 100km K
22 mm mm mm
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24 , 2004; Kurihara et al., 2005 MRI CGCM2 K B1 17 A1B Meehl and Washington, mm Knutson and Manabe, 1995 SRES A1B 100km 100km 100mm mm MRI CGCM2 246
25 20km 1/4 1/6 Ishizaki and Motoi, 1999;, Spectral Boundary Coupling Kida et al., 1991; Sasaki et al., 1995, 2000 Dickinson et al., 1989; Giorge and Bates, 1989 IPCC 20km IPCC
26 / / / Bengtsson et al., 1996 / a 20km b 20km 20km 5km a 20km 10 mm/day 850 hpa m/s b a 5km a c MRI CGCM2.3 SRES A1B 21 20km 10 20km a d 20km c 5km a c Kusunoki et al b d Yoshizaki et al
27 c 850 hpa Kusunoki et al d 2 5km Yoshizaki et al
28 2 20km
29 Bengtsson, L., M. Botzet, and M. Esch, 1996: Will greenhouse gas induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes? Tellus, 48A, Black, E., M. Blackburn, G. Harrison, B. Hoskins, and J. Methven, 2004: Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave. Weather, 59, Dickinson, R.E., R,M.Errico, F.Giorge and G.T.Bates, 1989: A regional climate model for the western United States. Clim. Change, 15, Giorge, F., and G.T. Bates, 1989: The climatrogical skill of a regional model over complex terrain. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1990: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment.Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums eds. ]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 365 pp. IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Report prepared for IPCC by Working Group I. [Houghton, J.T., B.A.Callander and S.K.Varney eds. ]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 200 pp. IPCC, 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris and K. Maskell eds ]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell eds. ]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 pp. IPCC, 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakic enovic, N., J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. de Vries, J. Fenhann, S. Gaffin, K. Gregory, A. Grübler, T. Yong Jung, T. Kram, E.L. La Rovere, L. Michaelis, S. Mori, T. Morita, W. Pepper, H. Pitcher, L. Price, K. Riahi, A. Roehrl, H. H. Rogner, A. Sankovski, M. Schlesinger, P. Shukla, S. Smith, R. Swart, S. van Rooijen, N. Victor and Z. Dadi eds. ]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson eds. ]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp.,,,,,, 2005: MRI.COM. 251
30 No.47, 189pp. Noda, K. Oouchi and R. Mizuta, 2005: Change of Baiu in global warming projection, 2004: by an atmospheric general circulation model 100, 2004 with 20 km grid size. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,. Ishizaki, H. and T. Motoi, 1999: Reevaluation of the Takano Oonishi scheme for momentum advection on bottom ref in ocean models. J. Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 16(12), Kida,H., T.Koide, H.Sasaki, and M.Chiba, 1991: A new approach to coupling a limited like climate change in a model with in- area model with a GCM for regional climate creased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Nature, 382, simulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 69, Meehl, G., and C. Tebaldi, 2004 More intense,, 2001 more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 211th century. Science, 305, Sasaki, H., H.Kida, T.Koide, and M.Chiba, 13 3, 77pp. 1995: The performance of long term inte-, 2003 IPCC gration of a limited area model with the SRES A2 B2 spectral boundary coupling method. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 73, , 71pp. Sasaki, H., Y.Sato, K.Adachi, and H.Kida, 2000:, 2005 IPCC Performance and evaluation of the MRI regional climate model with the spectral SRES A2 17 boundary coupling method. J. Meteor. Soc. 3, 58pp. Japan, 78, Knutson, T.R, and S. Manabe, 1995: Time mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO 2 in a coupled ocean atmosphere model. J. Climate, 8, Kurihara, K., K. Ishihara, H. Sasaki, Y. Fukuyama, H. Saitou, I. Takayabu, K. Murazaki, Y. Sato, S. Yukimoto and A. Noda, 2005: Projection of climate change over Japan due to global warming by High-Resolution Regional Climate Model in MRI, SOLA, 1, Kusunoki, S., J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, A. 252 In revision. Luterbacher, J., D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean, and H. Wanner, 2004: European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since Science, 303, Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, 1996: El Niño, , Schär, C. and G. Jendritzky, 2004 Hot news from summer Nature, 432, Schär, C., P. L. Vidale, D. Lüthi, C. Frei, C. Häberli, M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2004 The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature, 427,
31 Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen, 2004 Human contribution to the European heatwave of Nature, 432, ,,, 2004: Yoshizaki, M., C. Muroi, S. Kanada, Y. Wakazuki, K. Yasunaga, A. Hashimoto, T. Kato, K. Kurihara, A. Noda, and S. Kusunoki, 2005: Changes of Baiu Mei yu frontal activity in the global warming climate simulated by a cloud resolving non hydrostatic regional model. SOLA, 1,
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Title CMIP5マルチモデルにおける温暖化時の冬季の強い低気圧の増加 Author(s) 水田, 亮 Citation 週間及び1か月予報における顕著現象の予測可能性 (2013): Issue Date URL
Title CMIP5マルチモデルにおける温暖化時の冬季の強い低気圧の増加 Author(s) 水田, 亮 Citation 週間及び1か月予報における顕著現象の予測可能性 (2013): 240-245 Issue Date 2013-03 URL http://hdl.handle.net/2433/173471 Right Type Article Textversion publisher
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