インターネットによる情報通信産業の垂直非統合

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1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 01-J-001

2 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 01-J IP(Internet Protocol) JEL classification: L86, O33 * ikeda-nobuo@rieti.go.jp 1

3 2000 WWW(World Wide Web)

4 (end-to-end)(saltzer et al. 1981) IP 1 TCP/IP(Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol) 1972 ARPANET 2 4 (Leiner et al. 2000) ARPANET LAN ARPANET LAN end-to-end 2 TCP/IP (internetworking) OSI(Open Systems Interconnection) 1 ATM IP ARPANET TCP IP TCP/IP (Leiner et al. 2000) AT&T ARPANET 3

5 20 IP OSI 3 IP WWW HTML(Hypertext Markup Language) 3 WWW CPU HTML CSS(Cascading Style Sheet) XHTML OS XML(eXtensible Markup Language) 4

6 1964 IBM /360 (Baldwin-Clark 2000)/ /360 IBM OS CPU IBM 1981 IBM-PC OS CPU 1997 IBM-PC TCP/IP UNIX AT&T UNIX AT&T OS UNIX EmacsTeX TCP/IP UNIX VAN n n(n-1) VAN VAN IP 5

7 (encapsulate) 2n 1 IP 1990 C++ 5 /360 Java AT&T % (Ghemawat-Ghadar 2000) VTR OS C Pascal 6

8 (vertical disintegration)(bresnahan-greenstein 1997) (Christensen 1995) // IP 3 (VoIP) WDM VoIP IP 1 IP(Internet Protocol) 7

9 (deintegration) IP ISP(Internet Service Provider) 1 Christensen(1995:p.445) (Hart 1995) Milgrom-Roberts(1992) (alienable) 1 8

10 (Arrow 1964) (Ross 1976) 6 1 E= =1 2 S F 1 (S,E) = Max[2-S,0] 2 F 2 (S,E) = Max[S-2,0] 2 OS IBM-PC Baldwin-Clark(2000)(2000) Trigeorgis(1996) 9

11 F 1 (S,2) 2 F 2 (S,2) S S (Kiyotaki-Wright 1989)IBM-PC PC-DOS IBM-PC 128MB IP IP IP IP IP HTML 10

12 2 c 1 u d 0.5 c 0.5 u-c=1 0.5 d-c=-1 r V 0 0.5(u+d) V 0 = c 1+r u 4 d 2 c 3 r 10%V 0 = c c= (u-c)= (d-c)= c 0.5uF u 0.5dF d 11

13 F u F d F u = 0.5u+Max[0.5(u-c),0] = 2.5 F d = 0.5d+Max[0.5(d-c),0] = 1 S=3 r*=0.05 p*p*={(1+r*)s-d}/(u-d)=0.58 V 1 p*f u +(1-p*)F d V 1 = 0.5c = r* = V 1 V u-d p* S 12

14 (u-d) V Black-Scholes F(S,E)=Max[S-E,0] 2 12 E 1 E 2 01 E 3 E 1 +(1-)E 2 S* F(S*,E 3 )F(S*,E 1 )+(1-)F(S*,E 2 ) 4 F i (S,E)=Max[S-E,0] S i(=1,2, n) E n i =1 n+1 F n+1 (S,E)F(S,E) n F n+1 (S,E) i F i (S,E) i=1 (Merton 1973) 8 Sullivan et al.(1999) 13

15 E 4 F(S,E 1 ) F(S,E 3 ) F(S*,E 1 )+(1-)F(S*,E 2 ) F(S,E 2 ) F(S*,E 3 ) E 1 E 3 S* E 2 S (granularity) API(Application Programming Interface) W3C(World Wide Web Consortium) 14

16 9 5 C(n) V(n*) F(n) b 0 n* n 5 F(n) n C(n) a(>0) b(>0) C(n)=an+b Allen-Gale(1994) (Makowski 1980)

17 V(n) V(n)=F(n)-C(n)=F(n)-an-b V(n) V'(n)=F'(n)-a=0 F'(n)=a n* 1 a 5 a n* LAN ISP ASP(Application Service Provider) Black-Scholes ISP/ASP ISP/ASP ISP/ASP ISP/ASP 16

18 ISP/ASP (VC) VC VC 10 (Hart-Holmström 1987) 1990 (Hart 1995) (Gompers-Lerner 1999) VC (Aoki 2001) 17

19 ERP(Enterprise Resource Planning) Tirole

20 (commoditize) (Amram-Kulatilaka 1998:p.163) 14 NASDAQ 5% (Rajan-Zingales 2000) Christensen(1995) 3 IP IP "Everything over IP, IP over Everything" IP 21 IP 19

21 :p NTT NHK (contestability) IP 20

22 2001b Allen, F. and Gale, D. (1994) Financial Innovation and Risk Sharing, MIT Press. Amram, M. and Kulatilaka, N. (1999) Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World, Harvard Business School Press. Aoki, M. (2001) Towards a Comparative Institutional Analysis, MIT Press (in press). Arrow, K.J. (1964) "The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-Bearing", Review of Economic Studies, 31:91-6. Baldwin, C. and Clark, K.(2000) Design Rules: The Power of Modularity, MIT Press. Bresnahan, T. and Greenstein, S. (1997) Technological Competition and the Structure of the Computer Industry, Christensen, C.M. (1995) The Drivers of Vertical Disintegration, in his Innovation and the General Manager, Irwin. Ghemawat, P. and Ghadat, F. (2000) The Dubious Logic of Global Megamergers, Harvard Business Review, July-August, Gompers, P.A. and Lerner, J. (1999) The Venture Capital Cycle, MIT Press. Hart, O. (1995) Firms, Contracts, and Financial Structure, Oxford University Press. and Holmström, B. (1987) "The Theory of Contracts", in Bewley, T.F.(ed.), Advances in Economic Theory: Fifth World Congress, Cambridge University Press. Kiyotaki, N. and Wright, R. (1989) On Money as a Medium of Exchange, Journal of Political Economy, 97: Leiner, B.M., Cerf, V.G., Clark, D.D., Kahn, R.E., Kleinrock, L., Lynch, D.C., Postel, J., Roberts, L.G., and Wolf, S.(2000) A Brief History of the Internet, Makowski, L. (1980) "Perfect Competition, the Profit Criterion and the Organization of Economic Activity", Journal of Economic Theory, 22: Merton, R.C. (1973) Theory of Rational Option Pricing, Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4: Milgrom, P. and Roberts, J. (1992) Economics, Organization and Management, Prentice-Hall. Rajan, R.G. and Zingales, L. (2000) "The Governance of the New Enterprise" in Vives, X. (ed.) Corporate Governance : Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives, Cambridge University Press. 21

23 Saltzer, J.H., Reed, D.P., and Clark, D.D. (1981) End-to-End Arguments in System Design, Sullivan, K.J., Chalasani,P., Jha, S. and Sazawal, V.(1999) Software Design as an Investment Activity: A Real Options Perspective, in Trigeorgis, L. (ed.) Real Options and Business Strategy, Risk Books. Tirole, J. (2001) Corporate Governance, Econometrica, 69:1-36. Trigeorgis, L. (1996) Real Options: Managing Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, MIT Press. (1997)NTT (2001a)IT (2001b)IT (2000) 2000 (1996) 22

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untitled MMRC DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES MMRC-J-7 COE 2004 3 COE E-mail: miyazaki@gbrc.jp 2004 3 ( ) (, 2003; Ulrich, 1995) (2002) 1 Langlois and Robertson (1992) (2001) (Baldwin & Clark, 2000; Sanchez, 2000; Sanchez