.. 11...... 34 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
2006 71 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 35
1951 50 1997 Piggott and Bei 2007 Hu 20062003 2006 1990 1980 36 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
1991 Pay As You Go: PAYG 1990 Notional Defined Contribution: NDC 1995 1997 26 28 20 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 37
11 17 20 120 58 58 1997 1515 60 50 55 300 0 0-1 17 17 20 0-2 11 3 8 38 1 - - - - 2 - - - - Hu 2006 60 1996 1997 1998 38 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
2006 2001 42 20 15 200.6 20 23 2006 38 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 39
1520 2006 100 15 20 15 10 120 12 10 20 2006 15 2005 3,1204,368 2006 11 2010 2,300 8 20-12 2 100 Web http://www.clair.org. cn/act_cont_3_3_2006.htm 40 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
2006 2001100 19912004 2006 1950 1982 1979 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 41
Guo 20062004Leisering2002 2003 1980 1986 1986 90 1991 1992 2010 60 120 1997 Leisering 2002 1999 142000 1997 42 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
1999 2000 1998 2005 5,442302 11 15 14 13 12 11 10 1999 2000 01 02 03 04 05 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 Hu 20062005 2005 Old Age Income Support in the 21st Century - International perspective on Pension System and Reform Holzmann and Hinz RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 43
44 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 2005 adequate affordable sustainable robust 40 20 10 20053,882 18,364 21.1 9,250 10,49388.1 7,942 116.5 Nw Ir W Cr RSw Rr Nw R
Nw Ir W Cr = R Sw Rr 60 UN,World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision Population Database 1950205011.7 32.420 100 2000 50 Lanzeni 2006 1997 17 50 20252050 200344 2006 20 2004 571GDP 0.3 70 2036 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 45
202820 50 2050 73 20362050 39 46.2 2006 2075 Sin 2005 42 2075 2001GDP 110 132 49 33 18 Palacios 2000 2000 1998GDP 952005 1010 Piggott and Bei 2007 20 19842.4 0.966 Leisering2002 19918.81994 46 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
10 Leisering 2002 60 50 60 652026 100 GDP 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Holzmann200420751990 2001GDPSin 200542 Holzmann2004 Sin 2005 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 47
48 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 23.82005 GDP Palacios2002 2005 707 3,25521.7%2,134 33.1
60 50 2004 2006 1990 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999 2000 01 02 03 04 05 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 49
2000 1982 1990 2000 1 13.9 13.5 22.3 20.3 26.5 2 66.6 67.5 56.8 57.5 57.6 3 19.5 19.0 20.9 22.2 15.9 2000 2000 Yi and Zhenglian 2003 1982 1994 2005 2005 1,300 10 10 50 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
GDP 11 12 100 80 60 40 20 y = 16.569Ln(x) -88.62 R 2 = 0.2883 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 GDP GDP37,058 43.07,779 15.80.5957 20052005 GDP 1989 2000 60 Benjamin2005 13 3,000 4,000 100 80 60 40 20 0 y = 14.004Ln(x)- 118.73 R 2 = 0.5535 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 GDP 20052005 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 y = 7488.4Ln(x)- 61956 R 2 = 0.537 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2005 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 51
70 50 45 14 1.2 15 2006 90 80 70 60 50 y = -19.778Ln(x)+ 257.7 R 2 = 0.2111 40 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2005 2000 11 1,8002005 707 2005 52 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
15 15 2005 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 53
54 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 12 2004 1997 15 1997 20 58 22 61 16 10 10 15 152318 16
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 10 2005 10 2005 2005 17 77.764.5 6.4 24.5 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 55
2005 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 18 2005 60 100 13 200446 93.2 6.00.8 56 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
191169 90100 6575 47 19 20 28 2001 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 y = 0.4064x + 24.137 R 2 = 0.8116 20 0 50 100 150 200 250 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 2004 2005 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 57
14 2004 15 21 Leisering2002 1997 2003 14.0 93.7 81.8 75.5 19.7 94.8 77.0 72.8 20.6 95.1 85.5 69.6 40 16.5 94.6 79.1 73.0 40 21.7 95.3 79.8 66.7 17.8 94.3 79.3 71.5 2004 2005 Frazier 2006 58 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
10 2005 4,471 4.08 8,253 11 2000 12 27"Villagers benefit from China's First Rural Pension Insurance System" http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/english/200012/27/ eng20001217_58887.html 12 2004 1,525 57137.4 132003 142004 16,7299,814 16,259 10,102 15 200417 Web :2004 http://j.peopledaily.com.cn/2004/03/17/ jp20040317_37649.html RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 59
James 2001 2006 2006 20 30 Sin 2005 James 2001 16 22 401k Feldstein and Liebman 2006 60 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
1998 90 Barr 2000Holzmann and Hinz 2005 James 2001 7040 50 2004 49.2 18 1516 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 61
27.9Leisering 2002 17 Holzmann and Hinz 2005 23 62 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
0 1 2 3 4 Holzmann and Hinz 2005 13 1995 12 GDP 9,159 2005 451,712 40 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 63
2005 6,997 10 1.7 5.7 24 2005 11.5 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 10 120 2006 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 18 64 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
1979 200728 2005 25 26 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2006 40 35 30 25 20 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 65
40 30 20 20061,000 19 20102,182 20 10 0 10 20 2002 2005 27 National Social Security Fund: 66 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
Hu 2006 NSSF 2000 20042,975 2003 260 20041,708 2004GDP 3.1 28 1999 2001 29 100 80 60 40 1999 2000 01 02 03 04 Hu 2006 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 67
15 80 10 60 5 40 0 20 0 5 20 10 40 15 60 28 22 2005 10 16 40 60 100 10 104 106 22 17 18JICA 2006 19 2006 23 http://j.peopledaily.com.cn/2006/02/23/ jp20060223_57696.html 20 2006 http://j.peopledaily.com.cn/2006/03/09/ jp20060309_58071.html 68 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25
1990 GDP 8.7 9613.9 1990 path dependency 20062006 1998 2003 2006News 2006/12 157 2004 2005 RIM Vol.5 No.19 2006 RIM Vol.6 No.23 1999 2005 10 Barr, Nicholas 2000, Reforming Pensions: Myths, Truths, and policy Choice, IMF Working Paper WP 00/139 11 Benjamin, Dwayne, Loren Brandt, John Giles, Sangui Wang 2005, Income Inequality During China's Economic Transition, University of Toronto 12 Cangiano, Marco, Carlo Cottarelli, and Luis Cubeddu 1998, Pension Development and Reform in Transition Economies, IMF Working Paper WP/98/151 13 Feldstein, Martin and Jeffrey Liebman 2006, Realizing the Potential of China's Social Security Pension System, China Economic Times, February 24,2006 14 Frazier, W. Mark 2006, Pensions, Public Opinion, and Graying of China, Asia Policy, January 2006 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25 69
15 Gao, Qin 2006, Social Benefit in Urban China Determinations and Impact in Income Inequality in 1998 and 2002, Research Paper No.2006/117, United Nations University 16 Guo, Zhao Dian 2006, The Experiment and Progress of Rural Pension Insurance System in China, World Bank 17 Holzmann, Robert 2004, Social Protection for the Rural Population: The need to think outside box, World Bank 18 Holzmann, Robert and Richard Hinz 2005, Old Age Income Support in the 21st Century - International perspective on Pension System and Reform, World Bank 19 Hu, Yu-Wei 2006, Pension Reform in China - a case study, Brunel University 20 James, Estelle 2001, How Can China Solve its Old Age security Problem? The Interaction Between Pension, SOE and Financial Market Reform, Harvard University 21 Leisering, Luts, Gong Sen, Athar Hussain 2002, Old- Age Pensions for the Rural Areas: Form Land Reform to Globalization, Asian Development Bank 22 Lanzeni, L Maria 2006, China's pension system, Deutsche Bank Research 23 Palacios, Robart, Montserrat Pallares-Miralles 2002, International Patterns of Pension Prevision, Social Protection Discussion Paper Series No.0009, World Bank 24 Piggott, John and Lu Bei 2007, Pension Reform and the Development of Pension System:An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance, Independent Evaluation Group World Bank 25 Sin, Yvonne 2005, Pension Liabilities and Reform Option for Old Age Insurance, Working Paper Series on China, World Bank 26 Social Security Administration 2005, Social Security Program Throughout the World 70 RIM 2007 Vol.7 No.25