97 * 2007 10 31 WTI 1 96 1 1992 8 10 2006 1 Advanced Energy Initiative 2012 2 10 12 2007/08 26 133.18 13 126.40 2 57 51 32 2007 11 30 11 24 3 6 4 4 61 6 5 1 2006 134 8,900 1 3.785 3 48 5,500 44 9,100 10 1,700 2004 1 2005 1 6 2005 95 19 2004 17 79

98 7 90 40 8 90 5 1 1 9 2006 22 8,500 105 3,500 22 1 3,500 21 5,000 1 1990 1990 3 4,900 2000 1990 80 6 2,800 2006 21 5,000 516 1, 1 10 90 4.4 2006 20.4 5 2 11 7 2007 10 1 1 2 100 bushels 1990 349 135 484 7,934 1991 398 161 559 7,475 1992 426 136 562 9,477 1993 458 110 568 6,336 1994 533 100 633 10,103 1995 396 125 521 7,374 1996 429 130 559 9,233 1997 481 133 614 9,207 1998 526 127 653 9,759 1999 566 130 696 9,431 2000 628 130 758 9,915 2001 714 131 845 9,503 2002 996 131 1,127 8,967 2003 1,168 132 1,300 10,089 2004 1,323 133 1,456 11,807 2005 1,603 135 1,738 11,114 2006 2,150 135 2,285 10,535 Economic Research Service, USDA. 1990 4.4 1.7 6.1 1991 5.3 2.2 7.5 1992 4.5 1.4 5.9 1993 7.2 1.7 9.0 1994 5.3 1.0 6.3 1995 5.4 1.7 7.1 1996 4.6 1.4 6.1 1997 5.2 1.4 6.7 1998 5.4 1.3 6.7 1999 6.0 1.4 7.4 2000 6.3 1.3 7.6 2001 7.5 1.4 8.9 2002 11.1 1.5 12.6 2003 11.6 1.3 12.9 2004 11.2 1.1 12.3 2005 14.4 1.2 15.6 2006 20.4 1.3 21.7 Economic Research Service, USDA.

99 12 3 4 1990 2006 2 98 99 7,245 7,049 200 2005 7,512 390 3 1.2 1.6 5, 4 3 24 95 3 20 2006 265 477 212 1.8 2005 2 2006 3 20 3, 5 2 3 acres bu/acre 100 bushels /bu /acre 100 1990 6,695 118.5 7,934 2.28 270 18,192 1991 6,882 108.6 7,475 2.37 257 17,861 1992 7,208 131.5 9,477 2.07 272 19,723 1993 6,293 100.7 6,338 2.50 252 16,036 1994 7,251 138.6 10,051 2.26 313 22,874 1995 6,521 113.5 7,400 3.24 368 24,202 1996 7,264 127.1 9,233 2.71 344 25,149 1997 7,267 126.7 9,207 2.43 308 22,352 1998 7,259 134.4 9,759 1.94 261 18,922 1999 7,049 133.8 9,431 1.82 244 17,104 2000 7,244 136.9 9,915 1.85 253 18,499 2001 6,877 138.2 9,503 1.97 272 18,879 2002 6,933 129.3 8,967 2.32 300 20,882 2003 7,094 142.2 10,089 2.42 344 24,477 2004 7,363 160.4 11,807 2.06 330 24,381 2005 7,512 148.0 11,114 2.00 296 22,198 2006 7,065 149.1 10,535 3.20 477 33,837 National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA

100 アメリカのエネルギー政策の転換と食糧問題 表4 栽培面積 (万 acres) 穀物年度 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 5,651 5,801 5,823 5,731 6,081 6,154 6,335 6,911 7,044 7,245 7,241 7,298 7,250 7,248 7,396 7,125 7,460 アメリカの大豆生産に関する統計資料 単 収 (bu/acre) 34.1 34.2 37.6 32.6 41.4 35.3 37.6 38.9 38.9 36.6 38.1 39.6 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.7 生産量 (100 万 bushels) 1,926 1,987 2,190 1,870 2,515 2,174 2,380 2,689 2,741 2,654 2,758 2,891 2,756 2,454 3,124 3,063 3,188 価 格 (ドル/bu) 5.74 5.58 5.56 6.40 5.48 6.72 7.35 6.47 4.93 4.63 4.54 4.38 5.53 7.34 5.74 5.66 6.20 生産額 (ドル/acre) 196 191 209 209 227 237 276 252 192 169 173 173 210 249 242 243 265 総生産額 (100 万ドル) 11,042 11,092 12,168 11,941 13,746 14,599 17,440 17,373 13,494 12,205 12,467 12,606 15,253 18,014 17,895 17,269 19,694 出典 National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA より作成 図3 エーカー当りの収入の推移 図4 トウモロコシと大豆の収入比率 れることはいうまでもなく, 一概に燃料用エタノー 豆などの価格への影響も考えられる また, 家畜 ルへの需要増加のみが価格変動の影響とは言えず, の飼料としてもトウモロコシや大豆が使われ, そ 解釈に注意は必要であるが, 飼料用作物として重 の多くを輸入に頼っている日本では, 卵や食肉価 要なトウモロコシの近年の価格上昇は, 使用量の 格へもアメリカにおける燃料用エタノール需要増 90 以上を海外 (特にアメリカ) 依存している日 加の影響が現れてくると思われる 本においては注意を払わなければならないであろ 小麦について見てみると, モンタナ州の冬小麦 う 冒頭でも述べたように, 日本では食料油の値 のブッシェル当りの価格は 2005 年の 10 月が 3.39 上げにより, マヨネーズ価格を 17 年ぶりに 10 ドルだったものが, 2007 年の同月では 7.53 ドル 値上げするメーカーも出てきている に 2 倍以上に高騰している (13) また, オースト 大豆の作付けが減らされれば, 味噌, 醤油, 納 ラリアでは 2 年続きの旱魃により, 小麦の収穫量

101 5 /acre /acre 12 2 / 1990 270 196 1.38 1991 257 191 1.35 1992 272 209 1.30 1993 252 209 1.21 1994 313 227 1.38 1995 368 237 1.55 1996 344 276 1.25 1997 308 252 1.22 1998 261 192 1.36 1999 244 169 1.44 2000 253 173 1.46 2001 272 173 1.57 2002 300 210 1.43 2003 344 249 1.38 2004 330 242 1.36 2005 296 243 1.22 2006 477 265 1.80 National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA 5 14 2003 2004 1 6 2003 331.06 237.11 345.95 246.31 14.89 9.20 2004 5.57 15.61 15 2 Conservation Reserve Program CRP 2007 14.2 1,290 2007 2007 6,710 1996 16 2008 6 / 2003 2004 331.06 345.95 14.89 237.11 376.17 370.60 5.57 272.08 246.31 9.20 256.47 15.61 2006 Minnesota Agricultural Statistics

102 2008/09 6 8 17 3 1970 1977 1978 1990 MTBE 1991 75 90 LPG, 1999 MTBE 2001 2005 2012 75 18 2007 H. R. 6 H. R. 3221 19 E 10 10 5.2 / 1 51 2010 12 1 10 4 2.5 20 20 30 186 19 / EU 87 / EU 20 114 / 76 / 21 51 / 2.5

103 8 7 100 gallons 2002 2,130 46 n/a 91 2,085 2003 2,800 61 n/a 39 2,900 2004 3,400 161 n/a 31 3,530 2005 3,904 135 8 18 4,049 2006 4,855 653 n/a 108 5,377 Renewabel Fuels Association. n/a 100 gallons 2002 0 12.0 4.5 29.0 0 45.5 2003 0 14.7 6.9 39.3 0 60.9 2004 90.3 25.4 5.7 36.6 0 159.9 2005 31.2 33.4 23.7 36.3 10.0 135.0 2006 433.7 35.9 38.5 66.8 24.8 653.3 Renewabel Fuels Association. 1 54 22 2005 3 1 3,500 2006 6 5,330 12 7 Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act 24 8 23 5 / 1.0 2.8, 1.4 3.8, 1.0 3.2, 2.8 3.2, 6.6 9.0 24 / 1.0 1.4 3.8 1 0 55, 10 110, 0 65, 45 130, 85 400 6 David Pimentel Tad W. Patzek 25 5,130 99.5 1 6,597 45 79 1

104 1.24 26 1 1.88 / 1 33 10 1 2.69 15 95 13 8 4,000 27 3 7,000 WHO, 2000 10 3 1 29 28 2007 11 10 34 29 30 EU 2008 6 31 39

105 2008 1 2 32 20 5 33 34 2030 600 10 RITE 35 10 25 11 3 36 ETC 33 2016 100 37 IT 38 1 2007 11 2 2 State of Union Address 2006 2 6 HP http://www.jsps.go.jp/j-news/data/kaigai 02/ 11.pdf search 20 202006 3 19 10 30 789 http://lin.lin.go.jp/alic/week/2007/oct/789 us. htm 4 PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS CORN- KANSAS, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, http://www.nass.usda.gov/ Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Eco nomics_and_misc/ Distpr/index.asp 5 2007 11 1 6 Ethanol industry statistics, Renewabel Fuels Association HP 7 Ethanol Industry Outlook 2006, Renewabel Fuels Association HP p. 2. 8 The Importance of Preserving The Secondary Tariff on Ethanol, Renewabel Fuels Association HP p. 1. 9 2004 p. 52. 10 U.S. use of field corn, by crop year Economic Research Service, USDA. 11 12 13 WINTER WHEAT Prices Received by Farmers, Monthly and Market Year Average, Montana, USA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, http:// www.nass.usda. gov/ Statistics_by_State/Montana/ Publications/ economic/prices/wwheatpr.htm

106 14 4, 7, 8, 9 15 CORN AND SOYBEANS Production Costs and Returns, Heartland Region, 2003 2004, 2006 Minnesota Agricultural Statistics, p. 88. http://www.nass.usda.gov/ Statistics_by_State/ Minnesota/ Publications/ Annual_ Statistical_ Bul letin/agstatbk2006/page088.pdf 16 Newsroom, 3 30 2007 National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. http:// www.nass.usda.gov/newsroom/2007/03_30_2007. asp 17 2007 10 4 18 2006 12 HP p. 2. http://sugar.lin.go.jp/japan/fromalic/ fa_0612b.htm 19 Current Developments in Federal Energy Legislation, American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy HP http:// www. aceee. org/energy/ national/nrgleg.htm 20 FROM NICHE TO NATION Ethanol Industry Outlook 2006, Renewabel Fuels Association, p. 53. 21 p. 17. 22 The Importance of Preserving The Secondary Tariff on Ethanol, pp. 1 2. 23 2006 10 HP p. 6, HP 24 2005 9 HP 25 Pimentel, David, and Tad W. Patzek, Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower. Natural Resources Research, Vol. 14, March 2005. 26 p. 67. DDG / 27 p. 68. 28 p. 67. 29 2007 11 26 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 2007 11 15 2007 11 11 2007 11 1 2007 11 7 16 2007 11 11 2007 3 30 2007 11 13 2007 10 31 2007 11 6 1 The Importance of Preserving The Secondary Tariff on Ethanol, Renewable Fuels Association HP http://www.ethanolrfa.org/objects/ pdf/ethanol_tariff_position_paper.pdf 2 WINTER WHEAT Prices Received by Farmers, Monthly and Market Year Average, Montana, USA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, http://www. nass.usda.gov/ Statistics_by_State/ Montana/ Publications/eco nomic/prices/wwheatpr.htm 3 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006 2015 2006 11 HP http://sugar.lin.go.jp/japan/view/jv_0611c.htm 4 Ethanol industry statistics, Renewable Fuels Association HP http://www.ethanolrfa. org/industry/statistics/ 5 Ethanol Industry Outlook 2006, Renewable Fuels Association HP http://www. etha nolrfa.org/objects/pdf/outlook/outlook_2006.pdf 6 2002 5 7 2004 8 2006 12 HP http:// sugar.lin.go.jp/japan/fromalic/fa_0612b.htm 9 Current Developments in Federal Energy Legislation, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy HP http://www. aceee. org/energy/national/nrgleg.htm 10 1987 11 2006 4

107 HP http://sugar.lin.go.jp/ japan/view/jv_0604a.htm 12 2006 10 HP http:// sugar.lin.go.jp/japan/view/jv_0610b.htm 13 CORN AND SOYBEANS: Production Costs and Returns, Heartland Region, 2003 2004, 2006 Minnesota Agricultural Statistics, http://www. nass.usda.gov/ Statistics_by_State/ Minnesota/ Publications/ Annual_Statistical_Bulletin/agstatbk 2006/ page 088.pdf 14 2005 9 HP 15 19 10 30 789 http://lin.lin.go.jp/alic/week/2007/oct/789 us.htm 16 Statement by Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns Regarding the Conservation Reserve Program March 30, 2007, USDA STATEMENT, Release No. 0085.07 USDA 17 2006 3 10 HP http://www. maff.go. jp/kaigai/topics/f_brazil.htm 18 Newsroom, 3 30 2007 National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, http://www. nass.usda.gov/newsroom/2007/03_30_2007.asp 19 Eco-Economy-Update 2005-2 WorldWatch-Japan HP http://www. world watch-japan.org/news/ecoeconomyupdate 2005-2.html 20 State of Union Address 2006 2 6 HP http://www. jsps.go.jp/ j-news/data/kaigai 02/11.pdf search 20 202006 21 Pimentel, David, and Tad W. Patzek, Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower. Natural Resources Research, Vol. 14, March 2005 22 PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS CORN- KANSAS, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, http://www.nass.usda.gov/statistics_ by_state/kansas/publications/ Economics_ and_ Misc/ Distpr/index.asp 23 FROM NICHE TO NATION Ethanol Industry Outlook 2006, Renewable Fuels Association 24 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service- Quick Stats, U.S.D.A, http://www.nass.usda. gov/quickstats/pulldata_us.jsp 25 2007 3 30 10 31 11 1 6 7 11 13 15 16 26 2007 11 26