Aug 19, 213 1. (1)FRB (2)GDP 2. 3. (1)6 GDP (2)6 (3)213 ()213. (1) (2)7 (3) () (5) (6) (7) (3-397-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (3-397-628) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp Summary FRB FRB 213 1.% 213 1 1 7.%28 6 7 213 2% 213 GDP 1.6% 2.% Fed 9 FOMC Tapering 215
7 2 NY TimesNYT 1 FRB 6 2 7 Washington Post 3 7 FRB 21 29 8 7 26 7 2 NYT 9 FRB FRS FRB FRB FRB 1 1 Interview With President Obama, N.Y. Times, July 278, 213 2 Obama Raises Possibility of Change at the Fed,N.Y. Times, June 18, 213 3 The White House wants Summers for the Fed. But will they actually choose him?, Washington Post, July 25, 213 Obama likely won't announce Fed chair pick until fall: official, July 26, 213
196 198 21 1 FRB 21 1 FRB 2 1991997 FRB FOMC 1997 1999 FRS FRB FRS 1 CEA FRB 195 28 19911993 199921 26 2921 NEC FRB FRB
FRB FRS FRB FRB FRB FOMC Fed FT(Financial Times)Reuters FT 5 3 a) b) Fed c) 5 Summers dismissed QE effectiveness, Financial Times, July 25, 213
6 FRB 7 31 FRB 5 2 7 7 3 15 2 37 FRB 6 7 Senate Democrats Endorsement Praises Yellen s Record, Wall Street Journal, July 26, 213
GDP 1 8 28SNA GDP GDP 29,3 3.2% 212 5,599 3.6% 19% 212 12.7 2%,129 73.8% 18.6% 5.% ( )BEA 9 5 3 2 1 ()BEA GDP 5 3 2 GDP 1 1-1 -2 212 212 2.2%2.8% 7 6 1.2 GDP 5,599 3. 5% 12.9 7% 22 23 2 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212-3 - 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 212 213 ()BEA 8 BEA http://www.bea.gov/national/an1.htm 9
211 212 212 13 2.% 3.7% 212 213 1 3 212 112.1%.% 213 13 1.1% 1.8% 211 212 212Q1 212Q2 212Q3 212Q 213Q1 213Q2 2.8 3.7 1.2 2.8.1 1.1 1.7 2.2 2. 1.3 3.1. 1.8-2.2 2.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.9 2. 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.6-7.3 5.8.5.3 9.8.6.6 8. 7.5 3.6 1.8 13.2. - 12.9 23. 5.7 1.1 19.8 12.5 13. 12.1 2.5 8.5 13.5 17.6 1. -.2.36.91.6 2..93.1.1.39.6.73 1.52.57 -.1..1.3.68.28.81..6.23.38.33.9-3.5.2 3.8. 1.1 1.3 5. 3.. 5.3 1.9 2.8 1.1-2.2.7 2.5.5 3.1.6 9.5 2. 3.1 2.8.6.2. - 1. 1..3 3.5 6.5.2. 1.7 3..7 3.9 7..8 - ( )BEA
213 6 1.7%1 3 1.1% 2% 3 213 1.% 213 213 1 3 1 7 7.%28 6 7 213 2% 3.5 213 GDP 1.6% 3. 21 2.% 2. 1.5 1. Fed 9 FOMC.5 Tapering. 21 211 212 213 21 215 Fed 6 11 Tapering 112 1 Fed 2 9 8-2 7-6 -6-8 5 215 2.5-1 8 9 1 11 12 13
213 6 1.7% 1%.9% GDP -1 8 9 1 11 12 13 212 79 3.1% 2.8% 112.%.1% 213 13 1.8% 1.1% 3 6 1.7% 6 213 1.%212 1.7% 13 6 1.% 213 1.2% 1.% 213 213 1 6 GDP 13 2.3% 6 1.8%.28%Pt.81%Pt 13 6 GDP 13.6% 6.6% 1 3.2% 6.% 112 1 3 2.8.1 1.1 1.7 - - - - 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.15 1.13 1.5 1.22 8.3 1.5 5.8 6.5.59.7.3.8 1.6.6 2.7 2..25.1.3.31.7.6 1.5.9.31.29.69.3.3 9.8.6.6. 1.13.57.55 5.9 17.6 25.7 6.8.15..8.17 3.9 8.9 1.6.1.22.7.9.23 2.8 5.7 3.7 3.8.11.21.1.15 1.1 19.8 12.5 13..35.5.3.38 - - - -.6 2..93.1 - - - -.3.68.28.81. 1.1 1.3 5..5.15.18.71.5 3.1.6 9.5.8.53.1 1.51 3.5 6.5.2..67 1.31.82.8 8.9 13.9 8. 1.5.69 1.19.68.12 12.5 21.6 11.2.5.6 1.22.57.2 2.8 1. 3.6 3.2.8.3.11.9.2 1. 1.3.3.2.12.1. 6 2-2 - -6-8 1 6 2.% 213 1.2%
1 8 6 6 2-2 5.%131.3% - 9.5%13.6% -6-8 9 1 11 12 13 13 6 13.6%Pt 6.28%Pt 212 213 1.% 3 6 213 213 6 1.7% 2% 8 7 6 3.3% 3.5%.1%Pt 1.8%1.9% 6 GDP.8%Pt.1%Pt 6 6.5% 13.%.%Pt.2%Pt 6 1.7% 2.% 6 GDP 213
6 213 7 79 11 12 6 213 79 2% 213 1.6%21 2.% GDP 213 1.7.1Pt21 213 6 7.5%112 7.3%21 112 6.9% Fed PCED 213 6 1.1% 213 1 12 1.2%21 112 1.7% PCED 213 6 1.2%213 1 12 1.3% 21 112 1.8% FOMC 2% Fed 213 Tapering 21 213 112 11 7 Economic Monitor ) 12 79 GDP
FOMC 6 GDP 2.1% FOMC2.5% 7.3% 7.25% PCE 1.3%1.25% GDP FOMC FOMC GDP FOMC 213 2.32.6% 2.5% GDP 2.5% 79 112 3.5% 2.% 7 9 112. 3.1% 3. GDP FOMC 1.5.5 FRB Tapering 9 FOMC Tapering 68 7 8 FOMC Tapering 112 Tapering 21 Fed Fed FF 215 3.5 2.5 2. 1.. FOMC GDP FOMC GDP Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
7 NFP : Nonfarm Payroll Employment 16.2 6 18.8 2.6 NFP 2. 6 19.8 7.%67.6% 28 12 / 63.%663.6% NFP 13 22.7 1 6 7 1 2 9 8-2 7-6 -6-8 5-1 8 9 1 11 12 13.8.6..2. -.2 -.8-1. NFP 12 13 ( ) U.S. Department of Labor 15 16 NFP 3 DOL : Department of Labor 2 NFP 1-1 -2 6 -. -.6 1 11 12 13 ( ) U.S. Department of Labor 11 13 NFP 1.167%Pt.16%Pt.77%Pt.99%Pt 15 16
NFP NFP 6 2. 3 38 36 17.5 6 16.1 3 23.5 6 26.9 3 2.3 6 17 NFP 1 32 27 3 3 7 335 8 6 1.8 13 2.3 6 13 13 1. 6 1.9 79 7.2% 6.6% 6.%.6% 6 3.3% 3.5%7 9 7 6 U.S. Department of Labor 1.2% -2 - PCE -6 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 ()U.S. BEA 26 255 2.% 25 7 6 25 1.%62.9% 2 11 12 13 6 2 275 27 265 6 2 3 32 116 117 118 119 111 1111 1112 121 122 123 12 125 126 127 128 129 121 1211 1212 131 132 133 13 135 136 137 138 17 3 2.6
.5%6.2% 89 1 18 79 3.8% 6 2.% 5.%6 3.5% 79 NAHB 5 5 6 517 568 59 8 7 6 21 5 2 1 6 GDP 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 5.%131.3% 6 1 12 6 1 8 2 6 27.1% 2.2%Pt -2-1 11 12 13 3.%1 25 31.% 1.7%Pt 2 15 1 6 2.8%13 5 3.2% 211-5 1 11 12 13 3 6 NAHB 18.29%.%
6 9.5%13.6% 31.%1312.1 29.6% 13 6.8% 6.1%Pt 6 1 12 1 1 8 6 95 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13.5. ISM 5,% 35 3.5 7 55. 6 5.9.5Pt 3. 211 3 2.5 6 52.2 7 56. 2. 25 1.5 1. 2 8 9 1 11 12 13 213 55 7 5.6.2 5.16.2 1.7 6 35 1.2.1Pt 3 79 98 96 9 92 8 9 88 86 ISM 8 1 11 12 13 6 11 15 8 9 1 11 12 13 1 2 18 16
7 2 1 6-1 9.6% 7 17.1% -2 1 9 9 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 1 7 1 18 2.5 213/2/ 5/18 6,7 3,66 16 1 2. 7 GDP 8 19 6 GDP 62 79 79 7 79 2 111 7 CPI.2%6.5% CPI.26.2.6 CPI 2. 6 1.8 CPI 1.7. 61.6 CPI.1. -.2 6.2 -. -.6.2 6 3..2 19 GDP 2 2 5 5 3 12 1 213 2135 2136 2137 1.5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 1..5.
CPI.2Pt.%Pt CPI 1.5 3. 2.5 2. CPI CPI CPI CPI 1..5 3.26.2. 1 11 12 13 5 6 12 CPI 1.86 1.7 1.6.2 CPI 2.1 5 CPI 1.96 1.9 5 212 CPI CPI
Q3-12 Q-12 Q1-13 Q2-13.9 1.6 2.8 2. 2.8.1 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.2 19.8 12.5 13..3 9.8.6.6 3.5 6.5.2.. 1.1 1.3 5..5 3.1.6 9.5 17 12 16 2.6 2.5 2.6 Q3-12 Q-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13.3 9.9 7.8 2.7.1.3.2 65. 7. 62.8 75.1 69. 7.3 82.1 8.3 5.1 5.9.2 3.5.2.5.6.2.3.5 3.5 2..2.1.2.5.3 2.5.1.3...2. 781 896 957 872 852 919 86 896 22. 13.9 3.9 1.1.6 3. 1.2 5..5.7 5.2 5.2 5. 5.2 19.6 13.8 21. 8.3 1.2 2.1.9 11.1 27.3 31. 11.1 2.2.6.9 129 127 12 118 3 18 17 1 12 7 52 3 1.8 3.2 1. 1.7 2.1. 3.2.5 2.7 1.8 6.2 3.1 2.9 3. 5.9 5.6 52.9 5.2 5.7 9. 5.9 55. 5.1 55.1 55.2 53. 53.1 53.7 52.2 56. 8. 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7. 152 29 27 188 199 176 188 162 12 232 212 19 188 187 196 161 1.9 1.9 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1. 1.1 1. 1.8 2. 2. 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1. 1.1.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.26.26.26.33.23.25.33.3 1.72 1.72 1.96 2.3 1.76 1.93 2.3 2.58 99.2 99. 1.7 11.6 1.3 1.8 11.6 12.2 1337 131 1579 191 18 15116 191 155 11 126 1569 166 1598 1631 166 1686