* ** 199 1 1996-97 relation * ** Seoul conference China and Emerging Asia: Reorganizing the Global Economy? held by KIEP and Seoul National University 26 5 11-12 Hugh Patrick Yung-Chul Park 26 9 9-1 East Asian Economic Association 1th International Convention 26 11 18-19
1997 1 3 1997 3 1 IS 65% 4.9% 8% 8.2% 199
1 Foreign Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Loan 2 1 Push Pull Jeanneau and Micu [22] Ferrucci, et al. [24] Jeanneau and Micu [22] 2 2) Papaioannou [25] Daude and Frantzscher [26] 3) 1 1996-97 1) 2) Gravity Model 3)
relation Revenue Bond 4) JP 37.4 1 22 A B B/A 3.3% 2 9 5.4% 1 22 ID MY PH SG TH CN HK JP KR 4.2 3.3 1.9 1.5 3.1 18.3.4 4.6 ID 3.3.4 13.1 3.8 7.8.8 14.1 5.3 48.5 MY 3.2 3.3 12. 4. 7.7 2.9 17.8 5.3 56.2 PH 2.2 3.6 6.5 3. 3.5 4.5 2.4 7.8 51.5 SG. 18.2 2.2 4.6 7.6 2.4 12.5 3.7 51.3 TH 2.4 5.6 1.7 4.5 7.6 1.4 23. 3.9 5.1 5.4 CN 1.5 6.2 1.1 2.4 1.9 4. 18.1 9.7 44.8 HK.7 2.5 1.3 4.7 1.8 44.3 11.3 4.7 71.3 KR 3.1 2.6 1.2 2.3 1.1 11.4 1.1 19.6 42.3 IDMY PH SG THCNHKJPKR IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) 4)
2 199 1995 2 23 24 199 1995 2 23 24 38.7 42.5 39. 42.7 44.7 34.7 4.8 36.3 44.4 45.3 35.2 29.1 31.7 31.6 31.6 27.5 34.7 28.1 22.8 23. 32.3 3.6 25.6 21.5 25.3 3.7 31.9 16.1 16. 22.8 37.2 36.5 33.9 32.8 35. 37.7 37.7 31. 29.4 3.2 34.4 39.7 47.2 42.9 43.8 32.4 43.6 27.2 21.8 22.5 18.7 14.5 17.3 2.1 2.9 24.2 22.5 21.2 18.7 17. 43.3 5.2 47.9 46.7 48. 36.4 34.2 32. 13.4 18.3 27.6 25.9 24.4 23.5 23.4 23.1 25.3 22.9 17.2 2.7 34.3 37.3 33.2 33.1 33.4 41.4 42.1 22.8 25.2 27.1 Asian Development Bank, Key Indicators 3 2 65% 4.9% 1 8% 42.8%37.2% 8.2% 2 6.5% 3
1 23 2 23 3 23 Daiwa Institute of Research [26] IMF, Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS)
5) BIS 1996-25 1 6) Ant ant = A + B + C + D nt nt A a B b C c D d n 1 t 1 1996 25 3 35% 5% 9% 51% 3 1996-25 nt nt 1.85.666.354.154 1.2.276.49.56 1.4.36.88.82 1.281.835.51.135 nt ( a, b, c d ) S, nt 1 1 1 7) 4 4 5 nt nt nt 5) 6) BIS 4 7) 2
4 òø òú òú òú òú òôòø òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ùòòòø ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òôò ó òú ó òú ùòø òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ùòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòø òôòòòòò ó ó ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òôòòòòòòò ó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó ò ó òøó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òôòòòòòòòòòòòø ó òú ó ó òú ó ó 1 2 3
4 òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ùòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòò òú ó òú ó òú ó òôòø ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ùòòòòòòòòò òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ó ò ó òø ó òú ó òú ó òôòú ò ó òø ó òú ó òú ó òôò òú òú òú òú òú ò Indonesia 1997 1997 4 3
5 4 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 96-5 97,99, 96-96- 2 96-4 1997 1 2 3 3 2-4 3-5 96-99,1-5 3-5 4 97-1 96,98,1-2 5 97-5 97-5 1-5 1-2 6 1 4 3 22 2-b 26-b 1999 21-b 25 No.4 7 1996 No.1 No.2 7 25 2 6 7 1996 25 8) 1996 25 8 8) 6 FDI PortfolioBank Loan
5 (1) (2).27.197.398.576.1.2.3.4.5.6.7 1 2 3 4.31.16.54.86.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.1 1 2 3 4 (3) (4).2.17.233.41.5.1.15.2.25 1 2 3 4.35.666.554.464.1.2.3.4.5.6.7 1 2 3 4
5 4 96-5 97,99, 1 () 96-96- 96-4 2 () 3 2-4 3-5 96-99,1-5 3-5 97-1 4 96,98,1-2 5 () 97-597-5 1-5 1-2 6 CN 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 HK 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IN 2 1 2 2 1 1 4 4 4 1 ID 4 1 4 1 1 4 4 3 3 3 KR 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 MH 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 PH 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SG 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 TW 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 TH 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 3 3 3 CNHKIN IDKRMY PH SGTWTH 7 1 4 5 3 4 5 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 4 1 3 4 3 4 6 6 4 4 4
6 1996 +.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 HK96 CN96 IN96 ID96 KR96 MY96 PH96 SG96 TW96 TH96 7 25 +.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 HK5 CN5 IN5 ID5 KR5 MY5 PH5 SG5 TW5 TH5
8 1996 25.4.5.6.7.8.3 TH TH96.2 TH99 TH98.1 TH97.9 TH2 TH1 TH5 TH4 TH3.1.2.3.4.5.6 +.7.8.9.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 Pull Push 1996-25 9 1 9 1997 1999 2 1 1997-98 2-23
9 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, 1 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25,
11 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, 12 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8,
11 1997 1998 21 12 1998 21 9) Pull Pull Push 1989-24 Pull 13 198 199 NIES 13 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 9)
1997 2 24 14 199-95 22-4 1996-98 1999-21 1989-24 -.75 1999-21 -.849 1) 14 1989 199 23-4 14 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 1) Push 1-2 Pull
15 16 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24
15 199 2 23 15 23 Push Pull Push Pull 1997 Push 1997 11 1998 1 12 81992 8 26 9 1992 2 2 8 1993 2 459 1994 2 425 1995 3 6,8 1996 6 13,16 9 1997 7 1,524 2,391 4 1998 3 26,741 26,815 1999 2 46,374 13,44 2 2 51,574 8,51 21 37 16,418 4,64 22 51 23,187 7,949 23 24 25 26 18 186,7 63,663 8 4
1998 1 1998 3 1999 2 2 2 21 37 22 51 18.6 6.4 25 21-2 1998-2 12 1 Push 199 Pull Push 1 11) Pull Pull / Push La Porta, et al. [1999] Claessens, et al. [2] 11)
La Porta, et al. [1998] enforcement Allen, et al. [25] 2 12) 4 The Asian Committee of Financial Regulators relationship 1 2 12) IT face to face
face to face 13) Credit Risk Database 14) 13) [26] 14) 2 1,
Private Finance Initiative PFI 3% 7% 3% 1/7=1.428 15) BIS 1996-25 15)
16) 17 26 a b 17 97 5.9 99 2.4 23 25 5.1 25 43 1% 18 1996 1.1 23 1.4 25 96 1925 BRICs 24 2 25 34 2 1997 2.9 24 5 1997 1996 2.5 4 23 21 1996 2.8 23 1.2 1996 1.4 23 49 199 23 22 1997 1.1 24 46 1996 69 1999 37 25 56 1% 23 25 16) 3
1 2% 24 1996 7.6 23 1.4 1997 1.4 1999 85 25 1.4 25 1996 25 24 8 25 15 1% 26 1996 4.3 23 47 1997 4.3 1996 4 1% 1998 2.6 1999 1.3 23
16-a 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 16-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
17-a 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BIS 17-b 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
18-a 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BIS 18-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
19-a 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, BIS 19-b 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
2-a 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 2-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
21-a 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, BIS 21-b 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
22-a 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 22-b 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
23-a 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 23-b 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
24-a 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BIS 24-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
25-a 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 25-b 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS
Allen, F., J. Qian, and M. Qian [25] Law, Finance and economic growth in China, Journal of Financial Economics, 77, 57-116. Claessens, S., S. Djankov, and L. Lang [2], The Separation of Ownership and Control in East Asian Corporations, Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 81-112. Daiwa Institute of Research [26], A Report on Institutional Arrangements Regulations Surrounding Cross-Border Capital Flows in ASEAN+3 Economies, July 26. Daude, C. and M. Frantzscher [26], The Pecking Order of Cross-border Investment, Working Paper Series No. 59, European Central Bank. Ferrucci, G., V. Herzberg, F. Soussa and A. Taylor [24], Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, Financial Stability Review, June 24, pp. 89-97, Bank of England. [26] 21 COE, DP25-39. Jeanneau, S. and M. Micu [22], Determinants of International Bank Lending to Emerging Market Countries, BIS Working Papers No. 112, Bank for International Settlements. La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes, and A. Shleifer [1999], Corporate Ownership Around the World, Journal of Finance, 54(2), pp. 471-517. La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes, A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny [1998], Law and Finance, Journal of Political Economy, 16(6), pp. 1113-1155. Papaioannou, E. [25], What Drives International Bank Flows? Politics, Institutions and Other Determinants, Working Paper Series No. 437, European Central Bank. Wakeling, D., L. Rogers and D. Flood [24], Asian Capital Flows, Reserve Bank Bulletin, August 24, pp. 56-61, Reserve Bank of Australia. Yoshino, N. and T. Iijima [26], China and Japan: Rivals or Collaborators. Paper presented at the conference held by KIEP and Seoul National University; 11-12 May, Seoul, Korea. Available from URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/theme/research/stat/bop/bop/index.htm. BIS Available from URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/theme/research/stat/bis/ibs/index.htm Available from URL: http://www.mof.go.jp/1c8.htm Available from URL: http://www.dic.go.jp/katsudou/katsudou1-2.pdf