Purpose The global economy as a whole is recovering moderately thanks to a moderate U.S. recovery and a European pick-up in, although some countries i

Transcription

1 World Economic Trends The Spring Report -- Risks and Potential of Emerging Economies -- (Summary) June Cabinet Office Government of Japan

2 Purpose The global economy as a whole is recovering moderately thanks to a moderate U.S. recovery and a European pick-up in, although some countries including China and other emerging countries have indicated a weakness. (The global economy is expected to score a growth rate of about % in.) This report analyzes the current economic conditions and future outlook in each country and region. USA: A moderate economic recovery is continuing in line with growth mainly in private consumption. Europe: The economy as a whole is picking up, pulled by Germany and the United Kingdom. Asia: In China, the pace of economic expansion is slowing with financial market instability. This report also reviews emerging countries' growth potential and its future linkage with the world from the viewpoint of how China's development and growth potential decline would affect the global economy. Chapter. Economic Trends and Outlook in Major Countries/Regions Section. Overview of the Global Economy Section. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions Chapter. Risks and Potential of Emerging Economies Section. Background of Growth Deceleration in Emerging Countries Section. Emerging Countries' Positioning in Global Trade Section. Emerging Economies and Global Companies Section. Conclusion

3 Chapter, Section. Overview of the Global Economy -- Global Economic Trends: Recovering Moderately Despite Weakness in Some Countries -- The global economy as a whole is recovering moderately thanks to a moderate U.S. recovery and a European pick-up, despite a weakness seen in some countries including China and other emerging countries. (Figs. -) Inflation remains at low levels in developed countries while staying at high levels in emerging countries. Some developed countries see housing price hikes. (Figs. -) Fig. Real GDP Growth Rate of the G Countries ((Year-on-year 前年比 前期比年率 change, annualized %) quarter-on-quarter change, %) Other emerging countries その他新興国 Forecast 見通し Total G G 全体 Forecast 見通し Fig. Trends in World Production and Trade (January = ) Production Trade - EU EU アメリカ USA ( - Fig. Price Trends () Developed countries (Year-on-year change, %) Euro area USA Japan UK Q (Quarter) Other その他先進国 developed countries () Emerging countries (Year-on-year change, %) India Russia Brazil China Indonesia Q ( 期 ) (Quarter) 9 ( 年 ) Q (Quarter) Fig. Gap Between Housing Price Change and Nominal Economic Growth Rate (Number ( 地域数 計 of regions: 地域 ) Within regions) 年 Average: 平均 :.7% -.7% Median: 中央値 :.% -.% 9 年 Average: 平均 :+.% +.% Median: 中央値 :+.% +.% -% % or 以下 less -% ~ % to -% -% ~% to % % ~% to % % ~% to % % % or 以上 more Housing price change 住宅価格 (year-on-year) ( 前年比 )- - Nominal 名目経済成長 economic ( 前年比 growth ) (year-on-year)

4 Chapter, Section. Overview of the Global Economy -- Global Economic Outlook and Risks () Global Economy, USA -- Global Economy: Continuing a moderate recovery Although weakness is seen in some countries including China and other emerging countries, the global economy as a whole is recovering moderately thanks to a moderate U.S. recovery and a European pick-up. Forecast: A moderate recovery will continue thanks to a moderate U.S. economic recovery and a European economic pick-up. (Real economic growth in : about %) Risks: () Impacts of U.S. monetary easing reduction, () too prolonged period of low inflation in the Euro area, () Chinese financial market developments, () financial market destabilization in other emerging countries, () geopolitical risks USA: Sustaining a moderate economic recovery The economy is recovering moderately due to a slow upward trend of consumption and other developments such as employment and income environment improvements and housing and stock price hikes. Forecast: A moderate recovery will continue. (Real economic growth in : roughly in the upper % range) Downside risks: () A decline in housing investment accompanying an asset purchase shrinkage, () Prolonged deceleration of emerging economies Upside risks: () Rise of asset prices, () Decline of credit risk

5 Chapter, Section. Overview of the Global Economy -- Global Economic Outlook and Risks () Europe, Asia -- Europe: Continuing a pick-up While the United Kingdom is recovering, the Euro area is continuing a pick-up pulled by Germany. Forecast: The pick-up will continue as consumption and investment grow supported by relaxation of financial conditions and moderation of fiscal consolidation, coupled with an export increase sustained by a recovery in other economies including the USA. (Real economic growth in : about %) Risks: () Resurgence of the sovereign debt problem, () An export decline affected by the deceleration of USA and Asian economies, () Further employment deterioration, () Too prolonged period of low inflation Asia: Weakness is seen in some economies China is slowing down its economic expansion. South Korea and Taiwan are rebounding. ASEAN economies are stalled. India has hit bottom. Forecast: Rather low economic growth (Real economic growth in : Mid-7% in China, Mid- % in South Korea and Taiwan, in the lower % range in ASEAN countries, around % in India) Risks: () Chinese real estate price plunges and relevant financial market instability, () Impact of U.S. monetary policy change, () Impact of China's economic deceleration

6 Chapter, Section. Overview of the Global Economy -- Major Global Economic Risks and Their Trends () U.S. Monetary Easing Reduction, Euro Area Deflation Fears -- It is important to avoid major market fluctuations through communications with the market based on costs (excessive risk-taking) and benefits (elimination of slack including unemployment) of quantitative monetary easing. (Figs. -7) While inflation rates are falling in the Euro area, the risk of deflation is moderate. The Euro area is expected to see a steadier pick-up. Unexpected demand-side shocks could plunge the Euro area into deflation. (Figs. -9) Fig. High-Yield Bond Issuance Trend ($ ( 億ドル million) ) ( 月 ) ( Fig. Consumer Price Hikes in Euro area and Member Countries Euro ユーロ圏 area イタリア Italy Spain スペインドイツ - - France フランス ポルトガル Portugal ギリシャ Greece Germany ( 月 ) ( Fig. Short-Term Unemployment Rate and Wage Increase Rate ((Wage 賃金の伸び 前年比 increase, year-on-year, %) %) 景気の山 Economic Economic ( 年 peak Q) 景気の山 peak Economic ( Q) (7 (7 年 Q) Q) 景気の谷 peak ( 年 Q) 7 (Short-term unemployment ( 短期失業率 rate, %) %) Fig. 9 Changes in Deflation Risk (Deflation risk indicator) Deflation risk Moderate High Low ( Q) Economic 景気の谷 peak (9 (9 年 Q) Q) 9 7 Fig. 7 Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (Economic ( 景気の山 peak=) =) Y 7( (months) 月数 ) Japan Euro area March 年 月 December 7 年 7 月 9 June 年 99 月 July 年 9 7 月 USA Q (Quarter)

7 Chapter, Section. Overview of the Global Economy -- Major Global Economic Risks and Their Trends () International Finance for Emerging Countries, Ukraine Situation -- Emerging countries' currencies have intermittently depreciated, leading to capital outflow. The impact of capital outflow remained smaller than the past one due to the background of such developments as foreign currency reserves replenishment and foreign exchange deregulation. (Figs. -) As psychological risk aversion has emerged in addition to current account deficits and other economic fundamental weaknesses in emerging countries, capital flight from emerging country currencies to developed country currencies has been seen in some cases. (Fig. ) The Russian currency's temporary depreciation and other developments have come in response to growing geopolitical risks involving the Ukraine situation. But their effects on international financial markets have been limited. (Figs. -) Fig. Resilience of Emerging Countries Currency Currency appreciation/ appreciation/ depreciation depreciation (From May ) (From Dec.7) Current account balance (% to GDP) Foreign debt (% to GDP) Foreign exchange reserves (% to GDP) Previous crisis Share in global GDP Indonesia Turkey Brazil South Africa India Thailand Argentina Russia Ukraine Fig. Past Current Account Deficit Reversal (Trends of Real Economic Growth) (t-=) India インド () ( - - Turkey トルコ ( () (Year ( 危機年 for crisis=t) =t) Past -country average か国の過去の for past 危機時平均 crises - t- t- t- t+ t+ (Year-on-year ( 前年比 ) change) (Dollar ( ドルレート exchange rate. 年 January 月 日 =), =) Dollar s appreciation against ドル高 other 各国通貨安 currencies 99 9 Fig. Correlation with VIX (Volatility Index) (yen, euro, Swiss franc, emerging countries) Dollar s ドル安 depreciation against other 各国通貨高 currencies ( ポイント (Points) ) Emerging 新興国 countries 9 VIX VIX index 指数 (right ( 右目盛 scale) ) Average 先進国通貨平均 for developed countries / / / / (Date) ( 日 ) 7 Fig. Foreign Exchange Rates ((Dollar ドルレート exchange rate. 年 February 月 日, =) =) ルーブル Ruble Yen 円 Dollar ドル安 depreciation ((Points) ポイント ) Fig. VIX Index March (Sun) Crimea s referendum on its /( annexation 日 ) ロシア編入に関するクリミア住民投票 to Russia /( May 木 )(Thu) タイでクーデター Thai coup Aug. /7( (Thu) 木 )~ Increasing シリア空爆 momentum 機運の高まり toward bombing of Syria 9 ドル高 Dollar appreciation 9 ユーロ Euro ( (Day) 日 ) ( 月 ) ( 月 ) (

8 Chapter, Section. Overview of the Global Economy -- Major Global Economic Risks and Their Trends () China s Financial Risks -- Factors behind the Chinese economy s deceleration include policy measures to refrain excessive credit expansion through shadow banking. They also cause the destabilization of real estate prices as well as financial markets. (Figs. -) If risk-premium hikes and reductions in lending, it may further affect economic activities, in particular for small and medium-sized manufactures, real estate firms and others that depend on shadow banking funds more heavily. It has observed that bank loans expand in total social financing, while Chinese authority regulates WMP (Wealth Management Products). (Figs. 7-) (Trillion yuan) / (Year/month) Fig. Local Government Debt and Real Estate Price () Local Government Debt () Real Estate Price Debt outstanding (central and local governments) (right scale) Local government debt outstanding Central government debt outstanding (% to GDP) (Year-on-year change, %) Fig. 7 Risk Premium in Corporate Bond Market -year government 国債 年 bond - AA-rated 社債 AA corporate 格 ( 年 bond ) ( years) Shenzhen Shanghai Beijing (PMI) Improvement (PMI) 改善 /increase / 増加 Deterioration 悪化 / 減少 /decrease ( 月 ) ( ((Points) ポイント ) (Contributions ( 前年比寄与度 to year-on-year %) changes, %) - - Fig. Short-Term Interest Rate and Manufacturing Activity PMI (National PMI( Bureau 国家統計局 of Statistics )) Corporate 社債 bonds Short-term interest rate (right scale, 短期金利 inverse ( 右目盛 逆目盛 scale) ) PMI(HSBC) Fig. Total Social Financing ((Monthly) 月次 ) 信託貸出 Entrusted loan Total 社会融資総量 social financing New 新規 increased 貸出 loan その他 Others Q ( 期 / 月 ) ( (Quarter/Month) ( 月 ) ( 7

9 Chapter, Section. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions () -- U.S. Economy Continuing Moderate Recovery -- Private consumption is sustaining a moderate increase due primarily to improvements of employment and the completion of household balance sheet adjustments. (Fig. 9) Business investment has recovered the level before the global financial crisis due to corporate earnings improvement, though with a slightly slower recovery tempo. (Figs. -) Housing units started slowed in early due to cold waves and heavy snowfall. Price hikes remain below the Federal Reserve target. (Figs. -) Fig. 9 Private Consumption ($ trillion) ($ trillion) Real disposable income (right scale) Private consumption expenditure Fig. Business Investment and Corporate Earnings (9 (9=) 年 =) (GDP (% to 比 GDP) %) Corporate 企業収益 earnings (right ( 右目盛 scale) ) 9 9 設備投資 Business investment Q 7 9 ( (Quarter) 期 ) ( 9 Fig. Business Investment ((Economic 景気の山 =) peak=) 9 年 7~9 Q 月期 99 9 年 7~9 Q 月期 年 ~ Q 月期 年 7 ~ Q 月期 Y ((Quarters) 期数 ) Fig. Housing Units Started ( thousand houses, ( annual 万件 年率 rate) ) Fig. Inflation Rate Trend ((Year-on-year 前年比 %) change, %) FED Fed target 目標 Housing 着工件数 starts Housing loan 住宅金利 interest rate (right scale, ( 右 逆目盛 inverse ) scale) Core PCE PCE price コアindex PCE PCE price 総合 index ( 月 ) ( - ( 月 ) (

10 Chapter, Section. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions () -- European Economy Picking Up as a Whole -- Some countries such as Spain have improved competitiveness through the implementation of structural reforms including labor market reform and are expected to pick up driven by the export growth. Corporate loan demand as a whole is recovering. (Figs. -) In the United Kingdom, private consumption has increased due primarily to income improvements and the wealth effects of housing price hikes. (Fig. 7) After the turmoil under the sovereign debt crisis, financial markets have stabilised thanks mainly to the European Central Bank s aggressive monetary policy and progress in fiscal consolidation in each country. (Fig. ) ( ( 年 Q=) Q=) 9 9 Fig. Exports of Goods and Services ( 備考 ) 各統計作成 Fig. 7 U.K. Housing Prices (January =) 9 7 London Spain スペイン Southeast Germany ドイツ ユーロ圏 Euro area フランス France Italy イタリア Q( (Quarter) 期 ) 9 ( Entire UK Excluding London and Southeast 9 Fig. Employment Protection Indicators for Up ((Score) Regular Workers スコア ). Procedural 手続きの不便さ inconvenience Notice 予告期間 period and 合計 Total severance 解雇手当 pay Germany ドイツフランス France イタリア Italy スペイン Spain Difficulty 解雇の困難さ of dismissal Collective dismissal 集団解雇 アイルランド Ireland Down Greece ギリシャ ポルトガル Portugal スペイン Spain キプロス Cyprus (% points) Spain Fig. Corporate Loan Demand Italy France Euro area Germany 7 9 Fig. Government Bond Spreads in Support-Receiving Countries Q ( 月 ) ( (Quarter) 9

11 Chapter, Section. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions () -- Weakness in Asian Economies -- In China, the pace of economic expansion is slowing down. Investment growth in the ferrous metal processing industry, which reportedly has overcapacity, is contracting. Floor space of Buildings Started in the real estate sector has also declined. (Figs. 9-) South Korea and Taiwan have picked up due mainly to an upturn in global semiconductor shipments since the second half of. (Fig. ) ASEAN economies are generally stalling due mainly to an export slowdown. (Fig. ) The Indian economy has hit bottom, while net exports are improving. (Fig. ) 改善 Improvement 悪化 Deterioration Fig. 9 So-called Li Keqiang Index (Example of trial estimation) - ( 月 )- ( Fig. Global Semiconductor Shipments (Year-on-year change, %) - - USA Europe World Asia-Pacific Region Japan (Year-on-year ( 前年比 ( 単月 change ) %) for a single month, %) Manufacturing 製造業 (all)( 全体 ) 自動車製造 Automobiles コンピュータ Computer and electronics 電子機器 Fig. Investment in Fixed Assets by Sector Smelting 非鉄金属加工 and Pressing of Nonferrous Metals Electrical Smelting 電気機械鉄金属加工 and Pressing of machinery Ferrous Metals Fig. Indonesia: Exports (Contributions to year-on-year changes, %) Others Total (Value) - - China Europe and USA ASEAN Q(Quarter) - ( 月 ). - ( ( 月 ) ( Fig. India: Real Economic Growth ( 前年比寄与度 %) (Contributions to year-on-year changes, %) Fig. Floor Space of Buildings Started (Year-on-year change ( ( million 億m ) square meters) ( 前年比 (accumulated), ( 累計 ) %) %). Floor Space 着工面積 of Year-on-year Buildings Started. 前年比 change ( 右目盛 (right scale) ).... Real 実質経済成長率 economic growth rate Others その他 Inventory 在庫投資 investment Net 純輸出 exports Q ( 期 ) ( Government consumption 政府消費 個人消費 Private consumption Gross fixed capital 総固定資本形成 formation (Quarter) -

12 Chapter, Section. Background of Growth Deceleration in Emerging Countries () -- Characteristics of Emerging Economies and Factors behind Growth Deceleration Emerging economies achieved high growth on the strength of progress in globalization and invigorated trade and investment from, accounting for half of the global economy in. (Fig. ) Following the global financial crisis, mainly resource-rich countries have decelerated economic growth due to the Chinese economy s deceleration, a slowdown of the globalization tempo and financial market turmoil from. In some emerging countries, private credit expanded excessively. (Figs. -) Population bonuses behind the high economic growth will peak in to years in many emerging countries. But the timings for such peaking will differ from country to country. (Fig. ) Emerging countries will have to exploit their comparative advantage for developing infrastructure and institutions to sustain economic growth. (Fig. ) Fig. Real Economic Growth in the World China (Right scale) Emerging and Developing countries Fig. Degrees of Dependence on Exports (%(GDP to GDP) 比 %) 9 Global 世界金融危機 financial crisis ASEAN ASEAN 7 Developed countries Vietnam ベトナム Average for non-resourcerich 非資源国平均 countries - Fig. Private Credit in Emerging Countries () Non-resource-rich countries Thailand タイ マレーシア Malaysia ベトナム Vietnam インド India バングラデシュ Bangladesh Turkey トルコ Philippines フィリピン メキシコ Mexico 年 7 7 年 South 南アフリカ Africa Chili チリ ブラジル Brazil エジプト Egypt Russia ロシア コロンビア Colombia イラン Iran インドネシア Indonesia ナイジェリア Nigeria Venezuela ベネズエラ ペルー Peru アルゼンチン Argentina () Resource-rich countries 7 7 年 年 (% to (GDP GDP) 比 %) (%(GDP to GDP) 比 %) Fig. Population Bonus Periods Vietnam ベトナム Turkey トルコ 97 メキシコ Mexico バングラデ Bangladesh シュ インド India Philippines フィリピン Population 人口ボーナス期 bonus period 7 7 Population 人口負担期 onus period 9 ( ((Ratio 停電による損失の売上に占める割合 of outage losses to sales, %) %) Nigeria ナイジェリア India インド Bangladesh バングラデシュ フィリピン Philippines インド India Venezuela ベネズエラ Vietnam ベトナム Peru ペルー Argentina アルゼンチン Egypt エジプト ブラジル Brazil Chili チリ インドネシア Indonesia コロンビア Colombia South 南アフリカ Africa Thailand タイ 7 9 (Electricity ( diffusion 電力普及率 rate, %) %) ( Fig. Electricity Diffusion Rate and Outage Loss Ratio マレーシア Malaysia

13 Chapter, Section. Background of Growth Deceleration in Emerging Countries () -- Challenges for Resource-Rich Economies -- Growth has decelerated remarkably in resource-rich countries. International resources markets have slackened due to China s growth deceleration coupled with the diversification of energy supply since after the global financial crisis. (Figs. -7) For the reason that resource-rich countries are apt to see their currencies effective exchange rates rising during a resources boom, their currencies appreciated in the s. Their future challenge is to enhance export competitiveness through the development of human and institutional resources to support industrial sophistication. (Figs. -9) - 中国China インド均India トルコフィリピンタイバングラデシュBangladesh メキシコMexico 99s 9 年代 Before 金融危機前 the global financial ~ crisis 年 - 金融危機後 After the global 9~ financial 年 crisis 9- Philippines ベトナムVietnam Turkey Thailand Fig. Effective Exchange Rate Trends 非資源国平マレーシアMalaysia Average for non-resource-rich countries - インドネシア( (=) 年 =) ( (=) 年 =) Resource-rich 資源国 countries Fig. Real Economic Growth Trend () Non-resource-rich countries () Resource-rich countries 9 エネルギー価格 Energy prices (right ( 右目盛 scale) ) Non-resourcerich 非資源国 countries Global 世界金融危機 financial crisis 7 9 ( Indonesia ナイジェ均ロシアブラジルBrazil Nigeria エジプトリア-.9 Russia Egypt 7 アルゼンチンイランIran ミャンマーMyanmar 南アフリカSouth Africa Fig. 9 Employment by Industry () Non-resource-rich countries () Resource-rich countries Primary 第一次産業 industry ペルー中国 China ( 第一次産業 (primary industry) ) (secondary ( 第二次産業 industry) ) コロンビアColombia Argentina Peru ベネズエラVenezuela 中国 China ( 第三 (tertiary industry) 次産業 ) Tertiary 第三次産業 industry 第二次産業 Secondary industry 99 9 ( 資源国平チリChili Average for resource-rich countries Fig. 7 U.S. Shale Gas Production Outlook (( 兆立法フィート trillion cubit feet) ) 年 予測 Forecast 7 シェールガス Shale gas の生産量 output 99 ( 7 天然ガス供給量 Share in total natural に占めるシェア gas supply (right ( 右目盛 scale) ) Secondary 第二次産業 industry Tertiary 第三次産業 industry 第一次産業 Primary industry 99 9 (

14 Chapter, Section. Emerging Countries Positioning in Global Trade China is reducing its dependence on imports of parts for its exports in the international supply chain, while India is expanding such dependence. China is shifting its role from assembling and exporting final goods to exporting intermediate goods. (Figs. -) China is expanding parts exports to India and ASEAN countries. (Figs. -) In the s, India and Vietnam as well as China posted high growth in machinery exports. India s exports sharply decelerated growth toward before picking up in the middle of. (Figs. -) Fig. Degree of International Division of Labor (manufacturing, imports/exports) (Degree ( 国際分業度 of international ) division of labor) ブラジル Brazil 中国 China 年 年 インドネシア Indonesia インド India メキシコ Mexico Higher degree of 分業度大 division Lower degree 分業度小 of division トルコ Fig. China s Electrical Machinery Exports by Destination ($ million) Indonesia Brazil Mexico India Thailand Turkey Fig. Changes in China s Degrees of International Division of Labor for Final and Intermediate Goods (99 degree of vertical division (for intermediate demand)=) Degree of vertical division (for final demand). Degree of vertical division (for intermediate demand) Fig. Growth and Size of Machinery Exports (Annual average change in s, %) Bahrain Iran Qatar Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan Chile Turkey Russia Hong Kong South Africa Thailand South Korea Brazil Mexico Germany Indonesia Italy Malaysia USA Japan Vietnam Canada Venezuela,, (Export size, $ million) Nigeria Cambodia Senegal Peru Jordan Sri Lanka Vietnam India Developed countries 先進国 Emerging and 新興国 途上国 developing countries China Fig. India s Degrees of International Division of Labor by Import Source (Degree of vertical division).. ROW (including developing countries) USA Europe Others China Fig. India s Industrial Products Exports (Year-on-year change, %) Ordinary machinery Chemicals Leather products Electronics Iron and nonferrous metals Textiles Transportation machinery

15 Chapter, Section. Emerging Economies and Global Companies Direct investment has been robust not only in China but also in other emerging countries. Emerging countries presence is expanding. Some direct investment is shifting from China to other emerging economies including India. (Figs. -) Global companies have reflected China s changing roles in their operations, decelerating research and development spending growth in China. (Figs. 9-) The presence of developed countries including European countries has been declining. But foreign direct investment trends indicate that investors are returning to developed countries such as the USA. (Fig. ) Fig. Changes in Global Companies Overseas Tangible Fixed Assets (manufacturers) Fig. 7 U.S. Direct Investment in Emerging Countries (all industries) ブラジル Brazil Russia ロシア メキシコ Mexico メキシコ Mexico 年 7 年 7 年 年ベネズエラ Venezuela -7 Hong Kong 香港 - ~ 年平均 average 7- Thailand タイアルゼンチン Argentina 7-7 年 年 -7 ~7 年平均 average -7 年 7 年コロンビア Colombia インド India ブラジル Brazil インドネシア Indonesia マレーシア Malaysia フィリピン Philippines トルコ Turkey Hong 香港 Kong ペルー Peru チリ Chili エジプト Egypt ナイジェリア Nigeria South 南アフリカ Africa インド India アルゼンチン Argentina ベネズエラ Venezuela South 南アフリカ Africa (Contributions, ( 寄与度 %) %) (Contributions, ( 寄与度 %) %) ($ ( 億ドル million) ) Fig. Overseas Shares in Value Added for Global Companies インドネシ Brazil ブラジル Indonesia マレーシアアルゼンチア Malaysia ロシア Russia Argentina ン Thailand タイ トルコ Turkey Mexico メキシコ Manufacturers 製造業計 Machinery 機械 電気機器 Electrical Transportation 輸送機器 (total) machinery machinery インド India ( Fig. 9 Breakdown of Global Companies R&D Spending (professional services) Japan 日本 % Belgium ベルギー % Canada カナダ 7% 7% Others その他 % Germany ドイツ % UK 英国 % インド India % イスラエ Israel ル % Fig. Trends of Global Companies R&D Spending Fig. Future FDI Destination Candidates (Contributions, ( 寄与度 %)%) (Contributions, ( 寄与度 %) %) 年 年 -7 年 7 年... Manufacturers 製造業専門サービス Professional (left ( 左軸 scale) ) ( services 右軸 ) -. (right scale) ブラジル Brazil インド India インド India ((Share, シェア %)%) アメリカ USA インド India インドネシア Indonesia ~ - 年 7-9 7~9 年 ブラジル Brazil Russia ロシア ベトナム Vietnam

16 Chapter, Section. Conclusion In the s, economies accelerated in China and other emerging countries. After the global financial crisis, emerging countries have decelerated their growth tempo. Factors behind the deceleration include China s economic slowdown, unstable international finance and slower globalization. Even under such situation, some emerging countries are following the expansion of China s economy. China is shifting from the international division of labor, where it imports intermediate goods from Japan and South Korea and exports final goods to Europe and North America, to the vertical division, where it exports intermediate and final consumer goods to other emerging countries. Amid the shift, India and such Southeast Asian countries as Indonesia following China are taking over China s role. In line with supply chain changes, global companies sell a wide range of products and expand employment in emerging countries, while shifting overseas assets and R&D spending back to developed countries. Global companies from emerging countries are increasing their presence.