自動車税制を活用した地球温暖化防止政策の評価
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1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-J-004
2 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-J (1) CO (2) (1) (2)CO (3) CO CO 2 JEL classificaion: H2, Q21, Q25, Q28, R48 3 1
3 COP CO (1) (2) CO 2 (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) (1) (3) (1) (2) (3) CGE (Compuable General Equilibrium) CES Denis and Koopman (1998)Koopman (1995) Proos and Van Dender (2001) 2
4 (2001) Kanemoo, Hasuike and Fujiwara (forhcoming) Kanemoo, Hasuike and Fujiwara Kanemoo, Hasuike and Fujiwara (1) (2) (1998) (1999) (1) (2) (3) CES 10 3
5 CO 2 2 = 1,2,3,4, 5 z c x z σ z 1 σ z 1 1 σ z 1 σ z 1 σ z σ z σ + z σ z c c α x x = α α c α x σ z 4
6 x x 1 x 2 x σ x σ x 1 σ x 1 σ x 2 1 σ x 1 1 σ x σ x σ x = α x + α x 2 CES σ1 i = 0.12, i = 1, 2,3 z σ z = 1.1 c x 1 σ 1 =1.5 x 11 1 x 12 2 x 13 x 111 x 112 x 121 x 122 x 131 x 132 x σ x =1.1 x 2 σ 2 = 3 x 11 1 x 12 2 x 23 σ 2 i = 0.16, i = 1, 2,3 x 211 x 212 x 221 x 222 x 231 x 232 α1 α 2 σ x α σ 5
7 x i = 3 j= 1 σi 1 σi 1 σ i 1 σi σ α x i ij ij, = 1, 2 i i i =1 i = 2 j j =1 j = 2 j = 3 x 1 x 2 x ij = 2 k= 1 σij ij 1 σij 1 σij 1 σ ij σij αijk xijk, i = 1,2, j = 1,2,3 k k =1 k = 2 ρ z z z = z( 1+ ρ) 1 p ijk p 1 ij p 11 i pi 21 i p 31 s pij 2 p = R ( s ) j = 2, 3 ij1 ij ij ij ij 6
8 sij ( 1) si 2 i2 = xi21 / xi11, 1 s 3 i s s x x x /( s x ) i3 = i31 / i21, 1 = i3 i2, 1 i11, 2 E 5 1 = 1 (1+ r) ( c + E ) W + Transfer r W Transfer z 7
9 z z Welfare = z base W pco 2 2 base CO p EXT EXT + ( MCPF 1) TAX CT 10 z base z p p EXT CO 2 CO 2 EXT MCPF Marginal Cos of Public Funds TAX CT 8
10 / km/ / 9.9 / 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (1) (3) 21.4 (4) (5) p = R ( s ) = A + logninv( s,ì,sd ), i = 1,2, j = 2, 3 11 ij 1 ij ij ij ij ij ij Aij logninv( sij,ì ij,sdij ) 9
11 µ SD s s ij ij ij µ ij SDij s logninv( s,ì,sd ) 30.2 ij ij ij 2 3 ij ij 3 µ ij SDij Aij ,514 4, % 57.8% 11,635 11,825 4, % 23.5% σ α 2 2 σ 0.3 z 10
12 σ x 1.1 σ 1.5 σ σ 0.12 σ 2 j Goodwin (1992)Oum e.al (1992) (2000) (1999) j α 2 1/ σij ijk = pijkxijk k= 1 α 3 1/ σ i ij = pij x ij j= 1 p p σij 1/ σ ij ijkx ijk 1/ σi ij xij σ i α α x c α 2 1/ σ x i = pi xi i= 1 p i x 1/ σ x i σ x 1/ σ ( z 1/ σ ( z 1/ σ p x p x p c ) z σ + z x x c 14 = 15 1/ σ ( z 1/ σ ( z 1/ σ p c p x p c ) z σ z c x + c = (1) (2) (3) 1999 (2) 11
13 (4) ,098 5,597 3,911 10,241 7,816 2, / 9.5 / r ρ W 997,971.6 NOx SPM CO CO 2 CO 2 12
14 CO 2 CO (1) (2) /C INFRAS/IWW CO 184ECU/C ,480 /C Hohmeyer and Garner1992 1,467ECU/C ,239 /C Parry and Small2001 Tol e al /C /C Tol e al /C 3 /C 13
15 5CO 2 /C Bruce e al ,848 ECMT ,520 Nordhaus Parry and Small , , ,329 5,000 30,000 50,000 SPM, NO X SPM NO X CO 2 SPM NO X km 1 6 SPM, NO X /km ECMT (1998) 1.1 US FHA (2000) Mayeres&Proos (2001) 1.4 McCubbin and Delucchi Quine Small and Kazimi (1995) (2001) Parry and Small (2001) (2001) SPM 14
16 Federal Highway Cos Allocaion Sudy (US FHA (1997)) Mayeres and Proos2001 US FHA (1997) 10 (2000) 52km/h 30km/h 20km/h /km Delucchi US FHA (1997) Mayeres and Proos Newbery Parry and Small
17 1.0 /km 2.5 /km /km Mayeres and Proos Newbery Delucchi US FHA (1997) Parry and Small Parry & Small SPM,NOx C km / 9.5 /km 62.7 / 96.7 / 30 / 16
18 10 / /km / / / CO
19 % % % % % % % CO 1 MCPF = 1 18
20 / 10 CO / CO / 66 / CO / CO km
21 / CO2 5 20
22 370 / 7 8 CO Welfare (1) CO 2 (2) CO 2 (3) CO 2 10 / (4) CO 2 40 / CO
23 2.3 8CO % 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% CO 2 CO 2 10 /1.7% /4.8% % 0.3% % 0.3% CO
24 9 CO 9CO % 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% Mayers and Proos (2001) MCPF =
25 10CO % % 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% CO % 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 24
26 CO 2 3 (1) CO 2 (2) CO 2 (3) CO 2 25
27 Bruce. J. P., Lee, H. and Haies, E. F. eds.:climae Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climae Change, Cambridge Universiy Press, Delucchi, Mark A.: The Annualized Social Cos of Moor-Vehicle Use in he US, : Summary of Theory, Daa, Mehods, and Resuls, Repor #1, The Annualized Social Cos of Moor-Vehicle Use in he Unied Saes, based on Daa, Repor UCD-ITS-RR-96-3(1), Insiue of Transporaion Sudies, Universiy of California, Davis, Denis, C. and G.J.Koopman.: EUCARS: A spaial equilibrium model of EUropean CAR emissions. (Version 3), European Comission, ECMT: Efficien Transpor for Europe: Policies for Inernalizaion of Exernal Coss. European Conference of Minisers of Transpor, Organizaion for Economic Cooperaion and Developmen, Paris, Goodwin, P.B.: A review of new demand elasiciies wih special reference o sho and long run effecs of price changes, Journal of Transpor Economics and Policy, Vol.27 (2), pp , INFRAS/IWW: Exernal Cos of Transpor, UIC, Kanemoo, Y., Hasuike, K. and Fujiwara, T.: Road Transpor and Environmenal Policies in Japan 2001, forhcoming. Koopman, G.J.: Policies o Reduce CO 2 emissions from Cars in Europe: A Parial Equilibrium Analysis, Journal of Transpor Economics and Policy, Vol.30, pp.53-70, Mayeres, I. and Proos, S.: Should diesel cars in Europe be discouraged?, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.31, pp , McCubbin, Donald R., and Mark A. Delucchi.: The Healh Coss of Moor-Vehicle-Relaed Air Polluion, Journal of Transpor Economics and Policy, Vol.33, pp ,
28 Newbery, David M.: Road User Charges in Briain, Economic Journal Vol.98, pp , 1988 Newbery, David M.: Pricing and Congesion: Economic Principles Relevan o Pricing Roads, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.6 No.2, pp.22-38, Nordhaus, William D.: Managing he Global Commons: The Economics of Climae Change, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, Oum, T.H., W. G. Waers and J. S. Yong.: Conceps of price elasiciies of ranspor demand and recen empirical esimaes, Journal of Transpor Economics and Policy, Vol.26, pp , Parry, Ian W.H., and Small, Kenneh A.: Does Briain or The Unied Saes Have he Righ Gasoline Tax?, UCI Deparmen of Economics Working Papers No , Proos, S. and K. Van Dender.: The Welfare Impacs of Alernaive Policies o Address Amospheric Polluion in Urban Road Transpor, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.31, pp , Quine, Emile.: Full Social Cos of Transporaion in Europe, The Full Coss and Benefis of Transporaion, David L. Greene, Donald W. Jones, and Mark A. Delucchi.eds., Springer-Verlag, pp , Small, Kenneh A., and Camilla Kazimi.: On he Coss of Air Polluion from Moor Vehicles, Journal of Transpor Economics and Policy, Vol.29, pp.7-32, Tol, Richard S.J., Samuel Fankhauser, Richard Richels and J.Smih.: How much Damage will Climae Change Do? Recen Esimaes, World Economics, 1, pp , US FHWA: 1997 Federal Highway Cos Allocaion Sudy Final Repor. US Federal Highway Adminisraion, Deparmen of Transporaion, Washingon, D.C., US FHWA: Addendum o he 1997 Federal Highway Cos Allocaion Sudy Final Repor. US Federal Highway Adminisraion, Deparmen of Transporaion, Washingon, D.C., 2000., ,, Vol.2 No.1, pp.2-13,
29 , Vol.4 No.2, pp.19-30, pp ,, Vol.1 No.1, pp.39-53,
30 Welfare evaluaion of ax policies o reduce CO 2 emissions by road ransporaion Toru Fujiwara, Kasuhio Hasuike, and Yoshiugu Kanemoo In his paper, we repor our simulaion resuls on he evaluaion of various policy measures aimed a reducing CO 2 emissions by auomobiles. Our main resuls are as follows. (1) Revenue neural changes in ownership axes and acquisiion axes have very small effecs on CO 2 emission. (2) Raising he fuel ax is more effecive in reducing CO 2 emission. (3) Combining an increase in he fuel ax wih a reducion in he ownership ax subsanially reduces CO 2 emission and, a he same ime, yields higher social benefis han oher opions. 29
財政赤字の経済分析：中長期的視点からの考察
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財政赤字の経済分析：中長期的視点からの考察
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