Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi AKP AKP 8 23 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 11 1 AKP % 5 AKP Partiye Karkeran Kürdistan PKK
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1 Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi AKP AKP 8 23 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 11 1 AKP % 5 AKP Partiye Karkeran Kürdistan PKK PKK PKK 7 Islamic State IS IS IS AKP IS PKK Partiya Yetkitiya Demokrat PYD Yekîneyên Parastina Gelý YPG IS 9 IS
2 PYD/YPG AKP AKP AKP 43% AKP 2 AKP 51.8% AKP AKP 258 AKP 6 7 Halkların Demokratik Partisi HDP AKP Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi MHP % 46% 6 AKP 6 AKP 16.3% 14.2% HDP 6.9% 5 AKP
3 50.6% Ahmet Davutoğlu 11.2% 6 HDP 10% 2014 Selahattin Demirtaş HDP 9.8% HDP HDP IS AKP HDP Hurriyet 2011 AKP 4.2% 6 7 HDP 7 80% 4 HDP 4 60% 8 1 9% % HDP 11 1 AKP 6 AKP 72% 28% 12% 9% MHP AKP AKP IS PKK 7 20 IS IS 7 12 PKK PKK 12 7 PKK
4 PKK IS % PKK 13 AKP AKP PKK IS AKP 1 MHP HDP AKP 6 59 MHP 37 HDP 18 Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi CHP 4 14 AKP PKK IS MHP PKK HDP HDP AKP 6 HDP AKP 79% 14% 72% 21% AKP 6 12% AKP 6 6 AKP AKP AKP % 40.9% (258) 25.0 % (132) 16.3% (80) 13.1 % (80) % 49.5% (317) 25.3% (134) 11.9% (40) 10.8% (59)
5 ISIL VS PYD/YPG 1 PYD/YPG PYD/YPG 15 PYD/YPG PYD/YPG PYD/YPG IS IS PYD/YPG 16 PYD/YPG C PYD/YPG 18 IS PKK PYD/YPG PKK PYD PKK PYD PYD 19 PYD/YPG PKK 20 IS PYD/YPG PYD/ YPG PYD/YPG PYD/YPG IS 22 PYD/YPG Rojava 23 IS IS ISIL ISIL IS 3 PYD/YPG ISIL 25 PYD/YPG
6 図１ 北シリアの地図と情勢 出所 Cale Salih, Turkey, The Kurds, and the fight against Islamic State, European Council on Foreign Relations Policy Brief, September 2015, p.3, accessed on 10 January, 始めたことで新たな展開を迎える 2 ロシア空爆による北シリアの状況変化 ロシアは 2015 年 9 月 30 日からシリアにおいてアサド政権を擁護するために空爆を開始した ロシアの空爆がアメリカをはじめとする有志連合の空爆と異なっていたのは その対象には IS だけではなく 反体制派も含まれていた点である ロシアは反体制派の中に IS と通じるグルー 108
7 Institute for the Study of War F F F-16 Sukhoi Su-24 NATO 11 Bayirbucak Bayırbucak ta Türkmenlerin direnişi sürüyor accessed on 10 January, 2016.
8 Andrey Karlov PYD/YPG PYD/YPG ISIL 37 ISIL Azaz PYD/ YPG Mihail Bogdanov PYD Salih Muslim Asya Abdullah PYD 39 PYD/YPG IS PYD/YPG Joseph Dunford Hulusi Akar PYD/ YPG 40
9 PYD/YPG 6 AKP PKK 11 6 HDP PKK 11 10% MHP AKP 11 AKP AKP AKP PKK IS PKK PKK 42 PKK PKK PYD/YPG IS PYD/YPG IS ISIL PYD/YPG IS AKP
10 No AKP No No No HP < Ali Çarkoğlu and Erdem Aytaç, Seçimlerine. Giderken Kamuoyu Dinamikleri, 5 Mayıs, 2015 < t24.com.tr/files/ _ _ali-carkoglu-2015-secim-arastirmasi-sunum-4.pdf#se arch= Se%C3%A7imlerine.+Giderken+Kamuoyu+Dinamikleri%2C > accessed on 10 January, Metropoll, Türkiye nin Nabzı Haziran 2015: Seçim sonuçları ve koalisyon seçenekleriyle siyasette yeni dönemin gündemi, Haziran 2015 < accessed on 10 January, Ibid. 7 Hurriyet, 9 Haziran, Metropoll, Türkiye nin Nabzı Haziran IPSOS Soyal Araştırmalar Enstitüsü, 1 Kasım 2015 Genel Seçim Sandık Sonrası Araştırması, 4 Kası m 2015 < Sand%C4%B1kSonras%C4%B1_Bulgular_Gorseller_ _CNN_FinalDosya.pdf#search= IPSOS+ Soyal+Ara%C5%9Ft%C4%B1rmalar+Enstit%C3%BCs%C3%BC%2C+1+Kas%C4%B1m+2015+Genel+S e%c3%a7im+sand%c4%b1k+sonras%c4%b1+ara%c5%9ft%c4%b1rmas%c4%b1 > accessed on 10 January, IS IS Mustafa Dokmacı 2013 Kim bu dokumacılar, Hürriyet, 12 Ekim, PKK group says Turkish ceasefire over, Rudaw, 12 July, PKK claims killing of Turkish policemen in revenge for Syria border attack, Hürriyet Daily News, 22 July, Metropoll, Türkiye nin Nabzı Ekim 2015 Seçimlere Doğru Terör, Suriye Krizi ve Medya, Ekim 2015 < accessed on 10 January, Seçim sonuçları - 1 Kasım 2015 il il sonuçlar, Internethaber, 1 Kasım, Harriet Allsopp, The Kurds of Syria: Political parties and Identity in the Middle East (London: I.B. Tauris, 2014); Michael Gunter, Out of Nowhere: The Kurds of Syria in Peace and War (London: Hurst&Company, 2014); Bekir Aydoğan, PYD nin ABD-Rusya Denklemendeki Tercihi, Ortadoğu Analiz, Kasim-Aralık 2015 Cilt. 7 Sayı. 71, s US sends lethal aid to Kurdish forces fighting ISIS in Kobani, Reuters, 20 October, Aydoğan, s Jim Zanotti, Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief, CRS Report, December Gönul Tol, Washington-Ankara tensions will shape Obama s legacy in Turkey, Middle East Institute Website, 5 December, Amberin Zaman, Kurdish victory in Kobani a defeat for Turkish policy, al-monitor, 28 January, 2015.
11 22 Michael Stephens and Aaron Stein, The YPG: America s new best friend?, Aljazeera, 28 June, Gunter, p Turkey, US to create ISIL-free zone inside Syria, Hürriyet Daily News, 25 July, U.S., Turkey Agree to Keep Syrian Kurds Out of Proposed Border Zone, Wall Street Journal, 3 August, < org/> 27 Turkey downs Russian fighter jet near Syrian border after violation of airspace, Daily Sabah, 24 November, Ibid. 29 Turkey shoots down unidentified drone near Syrian border, The Guardian, 16 October, Metin Gurcan, Meeting between Turkish, Russian military reveal that Moscow had been warned, almonitor, 30 November, Who Are the Syrian Turkmen Rebels?, TIME, 24, November, Vol. 48, No Fehim Taştekin, Turkey gambles on the Turkmens, al-monitor, 30 November, Turkey condemns attack on Syrian Turkmen village, summons Russian envoy, Hürriyet Daily News, 20 November, Turkmens flock to Turkish border amid Syria-Russia bombardment, Hürriyet Daily News, 23 November, The Syrian Turkmen taking flight from Russian bombing, BBC, 4 December, Implications of Downed Russian Jet on Turkey-Russia Relations, Al Jazeera Center for Studies Position Paper, 2 December, Turkey s red line in Syria under attack, al-monitor, 6 December, Lavrov: Russia ready to support PYD, Yeni Şafak, 23 December, Ibid. 40 Turkey warns US over Kurdish corridor in Syria, Hürriyet Daily News, 7 January, PKK militants killed so far in operations, Turkish military says, Hürriyet Daily News, 10 January, Ibid.
1 AKP 11 AKP AKP EU 300 AKP Ahmet Davutoğlu Binali Yıldırım AKP EU Pelikan Dosyası 2 Cemil Barslas AKP
4 4 2016 7 15 129 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi: AKP 2016 2016 7 15 Fethullah Gülen AKP 2012 1 2011 4 2015 2016 3 European Union: EU Islamic State: IS Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan: PKK2015
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