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3 SSNIP SSNIP A...67 B...68 C Logit D E Logit...73 F Mixed Logit...76 G FTTH...79 H

4 1 1 2 IT 2000 FTTH FTTH ADSL CATV

5 logit model discrete choice model IIA Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives nested logit model FTTH ADSL CATV mixed logit model 3 3 Berry et al. (1995) Nevo (2001) Brownstone and Train (1999) 3 Berry (1994), Berry et al. (1995), Brownstone and Train (1999), Nevo (2001), Train (2003) 2

6 Ida and Kuroda (2006) 2004 FTTH ADSL CATV 2004 Ida and Kuroda (2006) FTTH ADSL CATV ISDN Dial-up ADSL 2005 FTTH ADSL CATV ,917 3,289 FTTH ADSL CATV SSNIP SSNIP hypothetical monopolist small but significant and non-transitory increase in price 5 10 SSNIP 3

7 2 SSNIP critical loss analysis X 5 actual loss X% X% SSNIP SSNIP SSNIP SSNIP IIA 4 FTTH FTTH FTTH ADSL ADSL FTTH ADSL CATV ADSL ADSL ISDN Dial-up FTTH CATV CATV 4

8 SSNIP FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL SSNIP SSNIP 6 5

9 IT IT IT e-japan 2003 e-japan 7 IT e-japan IT 2005 IT 2006 u-japan IT NTT KDDI 3 5 ADSL FTTH 2.1 ADSL FTTH ADSL DSL FTTH TV DSL USEN 6

10 ADSL DSL FTTH 2-2 FTTH DSL ADSL FTTH NTT NTT ISP Internet Service Provider ISP ADSL ADSL 1450 ADSL Mbps Mbps 50Mbps , , Mbps 2,900 40Mbps 4,000 ADSL ADSL 7

11 1500 NTT ADSL NCC new common carriers 62.9 NTT NCC 35 ADSL NTT NTT FTTH ADSL NTT USEN FTTH USEN NTT FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH ADSL FTTH ADSL,2002 4, , ,000 6,000 ADSL ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH 2002 NCC 62.8 ADSL NTT FTTH 8

12 NTT 2004 NCC ADSL FTTH 80 MSO Multiple System Operator 3 JDS TDNC TDN MSO J:Com J:Com kbps 30Mbps 2,000 6, , NTT NTT NTT 9

13 NTT NTT KDDI ISP ADSL USEN J:Com FTTH

14 3 3.1 mixed logit model i i = 1,..., N j j = 1,..., J 6 pij (1) U ij = V ( pij, xij, zij, yi α, β, γ ) + ε ij = α + xij βi + zijγ + ε ij y ln i pij x ij zij yi α, β, γ 7 ADSL (1) xij U ij i βi i β i b σ b random coefficient ( b, σ b ) φ( b, σ b ) ε ij i.i.d. (1) α i j P (2) Pij ( θ ) = Lij ( α, β, γ ) φ( b, σ b ) dβ ij 6 mixed logit model Train (2003) Train (1998) Revelt and Train (1998) Brownstone and Train (1999) Goolsbee and Petrin (2003) (multinomial probit model) CATV DSL

15 (3) L ( α, β, γ ) = ij A( i, j)exp[ V ( p, x, z, y α, β, γ )] k ij A( i, k)exp[ V ( p ik ij, x ik ij, z ik i, y i α, β, γ )] α, β, γ i j A( i, j) i j (2) (3) φ( b, σ b ) mixing (2) (4) (4) E p ijk ln Pij ( θ ) ( θ ) = ln p ik p L α β γ ik ij (,, ) α ( 1 Lik ( α, β, γ )) φ( b, σ b ) dβ ln y if j = k i Pij ( θ ) = p L α β γ ik ij (,, ) α Lik ( α, β, γ ) φ( b, σ b ) dβ ln yi Pij ( θ ) otherwise. 3.2 (2) closed form P ij simulated log likelihood SLL ) φ b, σ b, σ β φ b, σ ) ( b b R R SLL i ( b 8 H 12

16 N J ( (5) SLL( θ ) = I( i, k)ln P ik ( θ ) i= 1 k = 1 θ = α, γ, b, σ ) ( b ( 1 R r (6) Pij ( θ ) = L ij ( β, γ ) R r= 1 i j Pij I( i, j) i j 1 0 R r β r P ( (θ ) Pij (θ ) R random draws Halton Halton draws 9 Halton 10 Train (2003) 100 Halton 1, Halton 12 ij p jk (7) E ( (θ ) = r 1 N R p L ij ( α, β, γ ) ik r α [1 Lik ( α, β, γ )] if j = k NR i= 1 r= 1 ln yi P ij ( θ ) r 1 N R p L ij ( α, β, γ ) ik r α Lik ( α, β, γ ) otherwise. NR i= 1 r= 1 ln yi P ij ( θ ) 9 Train (2003) 10 Train (2003, pp ) 11 Train (2003, pp.233-4) 12 GAUSS Mixed Logit Estimation Routine for Cross-Sectional Data, Copyright (c) 1996, 1999 by K. Train, D. Revelt, and P. Ruud URL 13

17 4 4.1 goo goo IP ,917 IP

18 ADSL FTTH CATV 4 5 FTTH NTT ADSL BB NTT 4.2 Rappoport et al. (2002) 15 8 FTTH FTTH ADSL ADSL ADSL CATV, ISDN Dial-up 8 13 ADSL ADSL H 20Mbps ADSL(M 8Mbps 20Mbps ADSL ADSL(L) 8Mbps 8 4,917 3, A 15

19 4.2.1 FTTH ADSL ISDN FTTH ADSL ISP 14 ISDN NTT ISDN ISDN ISP 0.064Mbps CATV 15 Dial-up 2, Mbps FTTH ADSL NTT CATV CD-ROM A 15 CATV B 16

20 17 JIS 18 HP JIS (1) FTTH ADSL CATV FTTH ADSL CATV ADSL ADSL ISDN Dial-up (2) FTTH 3.39 CATV (3) FTTH 25% Dial-up 7 (4) FTTH CATV H

21 20 40 (5) FTTH 32% ISDN 59% 30 (6) /km 2 FTTH FTTH /km 2 FTTH (7) FTTH 36.07% FTTH 13.62% FTTH CATV (1) 30 FTTH 33% FTTH 30% ADSL 29% CATV 30% Dial-up 5 42% (2) Dial-up 90% FTTH FTTH ADSL 96% 18

22 (3) FTTH ADSL,CATV 6 FTTH 63% ADSL 62% ISDN 51 Dial-up 37 (4) FTTH 7% 8% (5) PC PC FTTH 27% FTTH 23% ADSL 22% CATV 20M 20% (6) 5 FTTH 70% FTTH 64% ADSL 65% CATV /( ) NTT FLETS FLETS ISDN 19

23 , NTT FLETS B ADSL NTT FLETS NTT FLETS NTT FLETS 2 1 FTTH CATV FTTH 1 FTTH FTTH CATV 3 1 ADSL CATV FTTH CATV 20 FTTH FTTH ADSL CATV BB 3 20 FTTH CATV FTTH CATV

24 /ln( ) % S.D. 1% 77.8% IIA 21 FTTH ADSL H ADSL M ADSL(L) CATV, ISDN Dial-up 7 D conditional logit model mixed logit model C E F 21

25 (4) 1 FTTH ADSL FTTH 1 ADSL FTTH FTTH Dial-up 2 FTTH ADSL H FTTH CATV ADSL M ADSL L ISDN Dial-up FTTH ADSL ADSL FTTH ADSL ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH ADSL ADSL FTTH Greenstein (1997), Sunada (2005) Hausman and Leonard (1997) Hausman, Leonard and Zona (1994), Okada and Hatta (1999) AIDS almost ideal demand system dimensionality problem 22

26 FTTH FTTH 4-4 ADSL FTTH 23

27 5 5.1 SSNIP market power Elzinga-Hogarty critical loss analysis Merger Guidelines SSNIP SSNIP hypothetical monopolist small but significant and non-transitory increase in price 5 10% 23 SSNIP Motta (2004) (2005) 24

28 SSNIP 2 SSNIP X 5 actual loss X% 24 SSNIP SSNIP IIA SSNIP 4 X SSNIP SSNIP Katz and Shapiro (2003) O brien and Wickelgren (2003) 25

29 5.2.1 X 5 X X c p q p + p q + q 25 p( q q) ( p c) q SSNIP p ( q q) + ( p c) q = 0 q = q p / p p ( p c) + p p p / p X ( p c) / c m 9 X X + m 9 m m 26 X 25 O brien and Wickelgren (2003) 26 26

30 p( q q) ( p c) q 2 ( q / q) actual loss 28 9 m m A B 2 A B X A B A E cross A B E A B X A XE B cross XE A B X own own 27 X arc elasticity p 28 Katz and Shapiro (2003) O brien and Wickelgren (2003) 27

31 own cross (10) X ( E E ) own E E E A A q A p A own cross q A A A (11) p ( q q ) + ( p c) q = 0 A A A (11) A B (11) m = 1/ E own (10) 1 cross (12) X ( E ) m 29 (9) (10) (9) 1 X E m cross > X X + m 29 cross 3 E Katz and Shapiro (2003) O brien and Wickelgren (2003) 28

32 (13) X > m( X + m) cross E (13) m X (9) conventional wisdom FTTH SSNIP 5% 10% 10% 30% 60% 90% FTTH X % (9) 10% 30% 60% 90% FTTH X % (12) (12) FTTH X % FTTH 29

33 & 2 FTTH FTTH 1, 2 & 3 FTTH ADSL to 4 & 6 FTTH ADSL CATV X % 5 1 FTTH 10% 5% 10% FTTH 5 10% 10% 4 4 FTTH 3.19 FTTH SSNIP 30% 5% FTTH FTTH 2 FTTH 0.143>0.127 FTTH 0.143<0.153 FTTH FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL

34 % 30% 10% FTTH FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH ADSL 3 60% 90 5% 10% FTTH FTTH 2 FTTH SSNIP FTTH ADSL SSNIP SSNIP FTC v. Tenet Helthcare Corp. (8th Cir. 1999), FTC v. Swedish Match North America Inc. (D.D.C. 2000) O brien and Wickelgren (2003) 31

35 FTTH % FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH 31 FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH 5.3 SSNIP SSNIP X SSNIP M G M (14) π ( p, x, c) = ( p c ) s ( p, x) Y k G M k k k 32

36 c sk k x Y X p = ( 1 + X ) p SSNIP M + (15) π ( p, x, c) > π ( p, x, c) M (15) X (14) (6) (16) c j = p j E p j own j (16) 1 own j 31 E j Y 1 32 SSINP FTTH SSNIP FTTH X % SSNIP (15) 31 ADSL 32 33

37 SSNIP (15) FTTH X % SSNIP (15) FTTH X 5% 10% 5 4 SSNIP & 2 1, 2 & 3 3 FTTH 2 FTTH 5% 1.8 ADSL SSNIP 3 FTTH ADSL 5% ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL 10% % FTTH ADSL 5% ADSL FTTH diversion ratio FTTH ADSL CATV FTTH ADSL CATV 10% 34

38 FTTH FTTH 5 6 FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL SSNIP 3 1 (17) p j c p j j θ = E j own own E θ j 0 1 θ PCM j 0 p (18) j c j HHI PCM = s j = j p own j E 1 own E 35

39 HHI FTTH ADSL c = ( 1 PCM ) p 33 FTTH 5,211 4,399 NTT 1 5,074 FTTH FTTH ADSL (LRIC: long-run incremental cost NTT LRIC LRIC non-traffic sensitive cost: NTS cost LRIC NTT NTT NCC FTTH ADSL NTT NCC ADSL HHI 2006b FTTH 17 6 ADSL 9 FTTH 2006 ADSL , Clements and Ohashi (2005), Ohashi (2003) 36

40 SSNIP market power cellophane fallacy 35 SSNIP SSNIP du Pont du Pont du Pont du Pont outside goods SSNIP SSNIP 5 10 SSNIP SSNIP 35 Motta (2004, p.105) 37

41 4 SSNIP 4 SSNIP actual loss 37 (12) m SSNIP 36 SSNIP Katz and Shapiro (2003) O brien and Wickelgren (2003) 37 Langenfeld and Li (2001) 38

42 X X Baker and Bresnahan (1985,1988), Scheffman and Spiller (1987) residual demand analysis random coefficient model Berry (1994) Berry, Levinshon and Pakes (1995) Nevo (2001) Ohashi (2003) 39 Capps et al. (2003) Gaynor and Vogt (2003), Gaynor, Kleiner and Vogt (2006), Werden and Froeb (1994) Hausman and Leonard (1997) Hausman, Leonard and Zona (1994), Nevo (2000) Werden and Froeb (1994) Werden (1998) Langenfeld and Li (2001) 39

43 SSNIP SSNIP SSNIP 40

44 6 FTTH ADSL CATV SSNIP SSNIP SSNIP 1 FTTH FTTH FTTH ADSL ADSL FTTH 2 FTTH ADSL CATV ADSL ADSL ISDN Dial-up FTTH CATV CATV 3 SSNIP FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH ADSL 4 SSNIP SSNIP FTTH 41

45 FTTH 5,211 4,399 5,000 FTTH NTT SSNIP SSNIP SSNIP 42

46 2004 NERA 2005 CR CD-ROM a /joho_tsusin.html 2006b CR01-04 TCA NTT u-japan 2010 Baker, J., and T. Bresnahan (1985) The Gains from Merger or Collusion in Product Differentiated Industries, Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol.33, No. 4, pp

47 Baker, J., and T. Bresnahan (1988) Estimating the Residual Demand Curve Facing a Single Firm, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol.6, Issue 3, pp Berry, S. T. (1994) Estimating Discrete-Choice Model of Product Differentiation, RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp Berry, S. T., J. Levinson, and A. Pakes (1995) Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium, Econometrica, Vol. 63, No. 4, pp Bhat, C.R. (2001) Quasi-Random Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation of the Mixed Multinomial Logit Model, Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 35, Issue 7, pp Bresnahan, T. F. (1981) Departures from Marginal-Cost Pricing in the American Automobile Industry, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 17, Issue 2, pp Bresnahan, T. F. (1987) Competition and Collusion in the American Automobile Industry: the 1955 Price War, Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 35, Issue 4, pp Brownstone, D., and K. Train (1999) Forecasting New Product Penetration with Flexible Substitution Patterns, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 89, No. 1, pp Capps, C., D.D. Dranove, and M. A. Satterthwaite (2003) Competition and Market Power in Option Demand Markets, RAND Journal of Economics, Vol.34, pp Clements, M. T., and H. Ohashi (2005) Indirect Network Effects and the Product Cycle: Video Games in the U.S., , Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 53, No. 4, pp Gaynor, M., and W. B. Vogt (2003) Competition among Hospitals, RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp Gaynor, M., S. Kleiner and W. B. Vogt (2006) A Structural Approach of Market Definition: An Application to the Hospital Industry, presented at the 4th International Industrial Organization Conference, Northeastern University at Boston, MA, April 7-9, Goolsbee, A. and A. Petrin (2004) The Consumer Gains from Direct Broadcast Satellites and the Competition with Cable TV, Econometrica Vol. 72, No. 2, pp

48 Greenstein, S. M. (1997) From Superminis to Supercomputers: Estimating Surplus in the Computing Market, in T. F. Bresnahan and R. J. Gordon, eds., The Economics of New Goods, National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 58, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp Hausman, J. and G. K. Leonard (1997) Economic Analysis of Differentiated Products Mergers Using Real World Data, George Mason Law Review, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp Hausman, J., G. Leonard and J. D. Zona (1994) Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products, Annales D Economie et de Statistique, No. 34, pp Ida, T., and T. Kuroda (2006) Discrete Choice Analysis of Demand for Broadband in Japan, Journal of Regulatory Economics, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp Katz, M. and C. Shapiro (2003) Critical Loss: Let s Tell the Whole Story. Antitrust, Spring, pp Langenfeld, J., and W. Li (2001) Critical Loss Analysis in Evaluating Mergers, Antitrust Bulletin, Vol. XLVI, No. 2, pp McFadden, D., and K. Train (2000) Mixed MNL Models for Discrete D. Response. Journal of Applied Econometrics Vol. 15, No. 5, pp Motta, M. (2004) Competition Policy: Theory and Practice, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. Nevo, A. (2000) Mergers with Differentiated Products: the Case of the Ready-to-eat Cereal Industry, RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp Nevo, A. (2001), Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry, Econometrica, Vol. 69, No. 2, pp O'Brien, D. P., and A. L. Wickelgeren (2003) Critical Analysis of Critical Loss Analysis, Antitrust Law Journal, Vol. 71, Issue 1, pp Ohashi, H. (2003) The Role of Network Effects in the US VCR market, , Journal of 45

49 Economic & Management Strategy, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp Okada, Y., and K. Hatta (1999) The Interdependent Telecommunications Demand and Efficient Price Structure, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp Rappoport, Paul N., Donald J. Kridel, and Lester D. Taylor (2003) The Demand for Broadband: Access, Content, and the Value of Time, in Robert W. Crandall and James H. Alleman Eds., Broadband: Should We Regulate High-Speed Internet Access?, Chapter 4, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, Brookings Institution Press, pp pp NTT Revelt, D., and K. Train (1998) Mixed Logit with Repeated Choices of Appliance Efficiency Levels, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 80, No. 4, pp Scheffman, D. T., and P. T. Spiller (1987) Geographic Market Definition under the U.S. Department of Justice Merger Guidelines, Journal of Law and Economics, Vol.30, Issue 1, pp Sunada, M. (2005) Welfare Effects of Quality Change and New Products in the Japanese Mobile Telecommunications Market: , Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Vol. 14, Issue 8, pp Train, K. (1998) Recreation Demand Models with Taste Differences Over People, Land Economics, Vol. 74, No. 2, pp Train, K. (1999) Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit, mimeo. Train, K. (2003) Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. Werden, G. J. and L. M. Froeb (1994) The Effects of Mergers in Differentiated Products Industries: Logit Demand and Merger Policy, Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp

50 Werden, G. J. (1998), Demand Elasticities in Antitrust Analysis, Antitrust Law Journal, Vol. 66, Issue 2, pp

51

52 ADSL

53

54

55 2 1 NTT NTT KDDI 2,180,928 2,098,048 2,547, ,394 87,733 70, ,636-54,894 14,200 12,850 8,707 5,108 ISDN ISDN ISP TCA TCA TCA USEN J:Com 77,803 57, , , ,309 5,616 22,592 1, ISP TCA

56

57

58 HP 55

59 4 5 DATA BOOK

60 57

61 58

62 59

63 5 1 Critical Loss dp p c dq q Langenfeld and Li (2001) 60

64 Market Definition 1 & 2 1, 2 & 3 1, 2, 3 & 6 1 to 4 & 6 1 to 5 & 6 1 to 6 & 7 1 to 7 & (0.010) (0.021) (0.036) (0.040) (0.004) (0.008) (0.012) (0.034) (0.041) (0.009) (0.034) (0.042) (0.005) (0.031) (0.039) (0.003) (0.027) (0.034) (0.026) (0.034) (0.053) (0.010) (0.025) (0.038) (0.049) (0.064) (0.068) (0.005) (0.017) (0.032) (0.036) (0.004) (0.023) (0.040) (0.062) (0.068) (0.018) (0.037) (0.062) (0.070) (0.033) (0.059) (0.066) (0.013) (0.031) (0.054) (0.061) (0.054) (0.062) (0.081) (0.021) (0.043) (0.072) (0.080) (0.008) (0.017) (0.024) (0.068) (0.081) (0.018) (0.069) (0.084) (0.011) (0.063) (0.077) (0.006) (0.053) (0.067) (0.053) (0.068) (0.107) (0.020) (0.050) (0.076) (0.099) (0.127) (0.136) (0.011) (0.034) (0.063) (0.072) (0.009) (0.046) (0.080) (0.124) (0.137) (0.035) (0.074) (0.125) (0.139) (0.067) (0.118) (0.133) (0.026) (0.061) (0.109) (0.123) (0.108) (0.124) (0.162) 61

65 Market Definition 1 & 2 1, 2 & 3 1, 2, 3 & 4 1 to 4 & 5 1 to 5 & 6 1 to 6 & 7 1 to 7 & (0.004) (0.016) (0.031) (0.035) (0.004) (0.008) (0.016) (0.023) (0.020) (0.028) (0.018) (0.026) (0.023) (0.031) (0.011) (0.020) (0.039) (0.009) (0.019) (0.032) (0.044) (0.058) (0.063) (0.005) (0.017) (0.032) (0.036) (0.003) (0.021) (0.044) (0.051) (0.001) (0.021) (0.048) (0.055) (0.018) (0.046) (0.054) (0.006) (0.025) (0.051) (0.058) (0.039) (0.047) (0.067) (0.009) (0.032) (0.061) (0.070) (0.008) (0.017) (0.032) (0.046) (0.040) (0.055) (0.036) (0.053) (0.046) (0.061) (0.023) (0.039) (0.078) (0.018) (0.038) (0.064) (0.087) (0.117) (0.126) (0.011) (0.034) (0.063) (0.072) (0.007) (0.042) (0.088) (0.102) (0.003) (0.042) (0.095) (0.111) (0.037) (0.092) (0.108) (0.012) (0.050) (0.101) (0.117) (0.078) (0.095) (0.134) 62

66 Market Definition 1 1 & 3 1, 3 & 6 1, 3, 4 & 6 1, 3 to 5 & 6 1, 3 to 6 & 7 1,3 to 7 & (0.001) (0.004) (0.007) (0.029) (0.035) (0.008) (0.032) (0.039) (0.005) (0.030) (0.036) (0.015) (0.021) (0.026) (0.033) (0.052) (0.003) (0.014) (0.028) (0.032) (0.000) (0.019) (0.035) (0.057) (0.063) (0.017) (0.035) (0.060) (0.067) (0.033) (0.057) (0.064) (0.004) (0.021) (0.043) (0.049) (0.054) (0.061) (0.080) (0.001) (0.009) (0.015) (0.058) (0.070) (0.015) (0.064) (0.078) (0.010) (0.059) (0.073) (0.030) (0.043) (0.052) (0.067) (0.105) (0.007) (0.029) (0.057) (0.064) (0.000) (0.037) (0.070) (0.113) (0.125) (0.033) (0.071) (0.120) (0.134) (0.065) (0.115) (0.128) (0.008) (0.041) (0.086) (0.098) (0.108) (0.122) (0.160) 63

67 5 2 Critical Loss Actual Loss 5% 10% FTTH Critical Loss CL FTTH FTTH Actual Loss AL CL AL 64

68 Data 1 & 2 1, 2 & & & & & & Data 1 & 2 1, 2 & & & & & &

69 Data 1 & 2 1, 2 & & & & & &

70 A 67

71 B 68

72 C Logit 8 69

73 70

74 71

75 a a a a a a a a a a a a D 7 72

76 E Logit 73

77 74

78 75

79 F Mixed Logit 76

80 77

81 78

82 G FTTH NTT FTTH 41 FTTH FTTH 544 FTTH G FTTH FTTH 13.5% FTTH 2.4% ADSL M ADSL L CATV ISDN Dial-up ADSL M CATV ISDN 4 7 FTTH FTTH 5% 10% 30% 50% FTTH 15.2% 17.0% 25.6% 36.2% FTTH 2.6% 2.8% 3.5% 4.1% FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH 15% FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH 41 NTT URL ntt.co.jp/news/new s05/0511phqg/ html 79

83 80

84 H FTTH ADSL NTT NTT FTTH B ADSL 47M 40M 24M 12M 8M 1.5M HP NTT B ADSL NTT B NTT ADSL 24M CATV GeoLinkXL H 1 H 8 JIS JIS 81

85 H 1 NTTB NTT HP GeoLinkXL 82

86 H 2 NTT ADSL 47M NTT HP GeoLinkXL 83

87 H 3 NTT ADSL 40M NTT HP GeoLinkXL 84

88 H 4 NTT ADSL 24M NTT HP GeoLinkXL 85

89 H 5 NTT ADSL 12M NTT HP GeoLinkXL 86

90 H 6 NTT ADSL 8M NTT HP GeoLinkXL 87

91 H 7 NTT ADSL 1.5M NTT HP GeoLinkXL 88

92 H 8 CATV 2006 GeoLinkXL 89

BB 報告書完成版_修正版)040415.doc

BB 報告書完成版_修正版)040415.doc 3 4 5 8 KW Q = AK α W β q = a + α k + βw q = log Q, k = log K, w = logw i P ij v ij P ij = exp( vij ), J exp( v ) k= 1 ik v i j = X β αp + γnu j j j j X j j p j j NU j j NU j (

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