Dec 2, 211 1. (1) (2) Summary 11 2. (1)12 FOMC (2) (3)212 FOMC 3. (1)112 (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1 (7) 2 1 11 112 4.% 79 212 2.1%213 2.3% (3-3497-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (3-3497-6284) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp 11 12 112 11 1
211 2 12 17 89 vs 1 2 1 11 11 12 23% 37 26% 24 1 3 4 Gingrich 35 Romney Paul 3 25 Perry 3 6 2 15 1 5 11 6 116 118 111 1112 1114 1116 1118 112 1122 1124 1126 1128 113 122 124 126 128 121 1212 1214 1216 1218
12 13 211 FOMC 1 FOMC12 FOMC Fed 1 12 5 WSJ 1 (2) 12 1 1 FF.25%213 2 MBSMBSThe Maturity Extension Program 11 2 FOMC 8 9 3 11 3 11 12 11 Fed 1 Federal Reserve Prepares to Make Itself Perfectly Clear December 5, 211, WSJ 2 213 FF likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-213 3 23 8 9 FOMC 11 2 FOMC
11 12 [E]conomic growth strengthened somewhat in the third [T]he economy has been expanding moderately, quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. growth. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and the year as prices of energy and some commodities longer-term inflation expectations have remained have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation stable. expectations have remained stable. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the consistent with the Committee s dual mandate. effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further.
FOMC 1 12 Minutes 212 穿 (3) 4 211 3 1 212 1 3 11 12 FOMC 1 Fed Fed Fed FOMC 4 1 NYFOMC 12 4 212 1 FOMC FOMC MBS QE3 MBS FOMC QE3 FOMC 212 5 FOMC 12 7 5 4 New York Fed to Post Primary Dealer Survey Questions December 2, 211, N.Y. Fed 5 212 FOMC 1 24-25 3 13 4 24-25 6 19-2 7 31 9 12 1 23-24 12 1
1 NY4 2 FOMC 5 5 1 4 FOMC FOMC NY 2 Fed 5 NY 1 6 211 211 4 3 3 8 9 FOMC 11 FOMC 4 FOMCFOMC 6 212 3 1 3 QE3 MBS1 17 7 11 16 8 MBS 211 212 NY NY 6 8 3 1992 7 Economic Outlook, October 211 October 17, 211, Jeffrey M. Lacker 8 Understanding the Intervenist Impulse of the Modern Central Bank November 16, 211, Jeffrey M. Lacker
11 3 9 211 MBS NY 212 11 3 211 FOMC 212 212 FOMC 11 112 GDP 2.6% (2)1 11 112 79 2.3% 2.7%7 9 1 12 79 112 4.% 112 4.%211 1.7% 1.8% 21 211 212 213,,Pt 3. 1.7 2.1 2.3 2. 2.3 1.7 2.1 4.3 1.9 3.4 6.4 4.4 8.8 9.6 6.9 () (1.6) (.2) (.) (.).7 2.1 2.5 2.5 (.5) (.1) (.2) (.3) 11.3 6.6 4.8 6.9 12.5 4.8 2.5 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.8 9.6 9. 8.9 8.5 (Q4) 9.6 9. 8.9 8.4 78 127 17 15 471 454 41 385 () 3.2 3. 2.6 2.4 5.3 4.3 3.5 2.4 1.8 2.5 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 (Q4/Q4) 1. 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 3.2 1.7 1.7 1. 1.6 1.7 1.7 9
13 212 2.1%213 2.3% NFP : Non-Farm Payroll 11 NFP9 15.8 21. 1 8. 1. 2 7.2 11 12. 11 12 遡 211 11 144.8 13.2 21 94. 7.8 12 211 1 9 22. 19.1 1 11.7 1.4 11 14. Verizon 11 7 5 1 5 14.4.6 1.4 14.6 1 12.1 9 1. 3.3 1 1.7 2.4 11 2. 1.4 1.4 2 1.6 1 2.1 3 5 7 45 U.S. Department of Labor 1 9 1 11 9 1 11 U.S. Department of Labor 3 25 2 15 1 5 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Verizon -1 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 ()U.S. Department of Labor 11 BLS The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45, telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August. 8 9
1 9.% 11 8.6%NFP 27.8 1 27.7 4 11 31.5 59.4 11 64.% 1 64.2% 8.9% 9. 8.6%.4%Pt.1%Pt.3%Pt 11 12 211 Holiday Sales 13 11 24 14 Shoppers Trak 6.6%21.3%NRF 16.4%21 9.2% IBM Benchmark 33.%21 19.4% 67.5 67. 66.5 66. 65.5 65. 64.5 11 1 9 8 7 6 64. 5 63.5 4 7 8 9 1 11 U.S. Department of Labor 11.2%.6% 遡 9 1.1% 1.3% 1.5%.6% 1 1 79 12 11 1 9 112 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 U.S. Department of Commerce 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3 12 21 28 13 14
5.7%11 111 79 6.9%79 4.7% 遡 111 7 9 6.9% 11.6% 遡 11 GDP 111 79 4.9%7 9 4.4% 211 11 21 11 1 2.8% 15 NRF 12 15 3.8% 11 4.8% 12 3.% NRF 11 12 12 11 112 2.7% 79 2.3% 16 14 12 11 12 1 1 8 6 4 53 515 578 553 477 547 2 252 362 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 U.S. Department of Labor 1 8.1 8 5.8 5.9 6 5.4 3.5 4.2 4.7 5.2 3.4 3.8 4 3.1 2.3 1.3 1.8 2 -.4-2 -4-4.4-6 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 U.S. Department of Commerce, NRF 79 1.6%46 4.2% 2 1 12 9 8 7 6 5 + 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Department of Commerce, NAR 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 15 NRF 1112
9 1 79 7.9%79.5% 14.2%7 9 14.7% 79 29.% 1 79 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Department of Commerce 12.3% 1 3 1 79 19.1%112 11.21.7% 3.45.4.16%Pt 11 12 ISM 1 5.8 11 52.7 12 NY 11.6 12 9.5 11 3.6 12 1.3 12 ISM 11 1 9 8 8 9 1 11 4 3 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 NY 2 1-1 NY -2 9 1 11 CEIC
1 7.9 11 25.6 12 23.3 3 79 8.1% 1 1.2%9 1.5% 79 2.2% 1.3%9.1% 1 1 12 GDP 1 EU 5.1% 9.6%9 3.3% 1 3.7% NIEs 9 12.%1 11.4%1 1 13 12 11 1 9 8 112 7 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 112 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 112 1 1 3.7%3.% 3.1%2.8% 11 CPI.2%1.8% 2 CPI.17%1.14%11 11.5%1.11%1.6%1 2.% 2 2.4%1 3.1% CPI 1 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 CPI -2 CPI -3 8 9 1 11 4 2-2 -4-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9
.4%11.3%.4%.6%.1%.1%.2%.2%.5%.4% CPI CPI 11 3.4% 1 3.5%9 3.9% 2 2.2%1 2.1% CPI 1 1.4%11 1.% CPI 2.3%1.1%CPI CPI2.5%2.3% 12 16 CPI 1.9%2.% CPI 2.5%CPI 2.2% 1 5 2.7% 12 3 BEI 1 2.%2 2.1% CPI CPI CPI 鍵 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2.5-2. -1.5-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2. 2.5 3. CPI CPI CPI CPI -2 1 11 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1 Year 5 Year 9 1 11 1.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 16 12
Q4-1 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 4.2 3.1 4. 4.6 2.3.4 1.3 2. 3.6 2.1.7 2.3 2.5 2.5 4.2 1.6 8.7 2.1 1.3 14.8 2.8 5.9.9.1 7.8 7.9 3.6 4.3 2.3 8.3 1.4.5 112 12 125 11 3. 3.2 3.3 2.9 Q4-1 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 3.5 5.2 2.7.2.1.1.3 57. 66.9 61.8 5.3 45.2 46.4 4.9 56. 12.1 1.8 4.7 4.7.3 1.3.6.2 6.8 7.8 5.2 4.9.4.7.7.3 3.1 4.8.7 6.1.3..7.2 539 582 572 61 585 63 628 67.9 37.1 18.3.5 8.4 3.2 1.4 8.2 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.4 8.3 8. 9.8.9 2.1 8..9 1.4.8 11.8 2.6 24.9 22.6 2..1 1.3 119 14 146 136 45 44 43 139 151 142 138 46 46 44 1.2 7.2 3.6 8.1.7 1.5 1.2.7 16.3 5.7 2.2.1.7.3 57.9 61.1 56.4 51. 5.6 51.6 5.8 52.7 55.9 58.8 53.6 53. 53.3 53. 52.9 52. 9.6 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9. 8.6 139 166 97 147 14 21 1 12 146 191 138 155 72 22 117 14 1.8 1.8 1.9 2. 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.3 2.1 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.4.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2. 2. 2.1 2.2 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 1. 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.62.7.41.21.23.21.28.25 3.29 3.42 3. 1.98 2.3 1.98 2.15 2.2 99.8 96.9 95.3 98. 95.2 98. 98.9 99.5 11578 1232 12414 1913 11614 1913 11955 1246 1258 1326 1321 1131 1219 1131 1253 1247