2

1

2

3

2003 3 2002 10 2000 4

1 (Y/L)/ (Y/L)= NonIT (K NonIT/L)/ (K NonIT/L)+ IT (K IT/L)/ (K IT/L) TFP/TFP Y:, L:, K NonIT: IT, K IT: IT NonIT, IT 2 TFP 5

6

i

ii

iii

iv

1

2

3

2003 3 2002 10 2000 4

1 (Y/L)/ (Y/L)= NonIT (K NonIT/L)/ (K NonIT/L)+ IT (K IT/L)/ (K IT/L) TFP/TFP Y:, L:, K NonIT: IT, K IT: IT NonIT, IT 2 TFP 5

6

2001 6 3 11 Plan Do CheckAction 1 2 IT 2001 e-japan IT IT IT IT IT IT NTT 1

2 1998 33.4 24.8 22.2 13.4 ITU

1 1999 24 1 59,600 10-2 3

IT 2000 IT IT 2001 2005 IT e-japan e-japan IT PDCAPlan- Do-Check-Action 2003 IT IT e-japan 4

5 100kbps 0.09-4ADSL -5-6

6

-8 7

IP VoIPVoice over IP IP IP 2003 7.3 11.1 IP IP 20.3 IP 42.7 IP IP 41.3 52.0 IP 8

9 e-japan IT e-japan 2005 e-japan 1-10 DSL ADSL

2001 2004 1695 ADSL 2004 1255 ADSL 74 ADSL ADSL FTTH ADSL FTTH FTTH FTTH 2004 8 160 2003 3 31 FTTH 10

11 DSL 2000 9 ADSL BB 30% NTT ADSLFTTH NTT

12

4 4 4 (2004 9 ) 13

14

97 1 2003 7,730 6-16 6.7 2003 88.1 1 1 15 15

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17 96.3-5 -6

18-7 85.0-8

2002 20.8 2003 33.2-9 -10 19

20 IT

21 60-1 4-11 2004 1 8 ITU 2004 9

e-japan IT IT -12 22

IT IT IT IT IT 23

IT -14 IT 100 2 3-15 IT 2003 16.5% 4.3 3 2004 2003 3 2002 10 2000 IT 2 3 IT 24

25 IT -162004 3 2004

GDP 5.2 2.2 3.2-17 97 2003 7 IT IT -18 11-19 26

27

IT -20 2003 12-21 28

IT e-japan -22-23 e-japan -24 29

30

IT IT IT 2003 4.5-1 90 IT 90 IT 3-2 IT 31

32

IT IT 60 DVD -4 IT DVD TV VTRCD 33

IT IT 4 IT IT -5 34

IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 2 IT IT 2000 7.8 2003 12.1 3 56.2 4.4 0.8 1.9 GDP 0.4-6 35

IT IT 4-7 24 36

IT 2004 8 2001 1 5 1-8 3 2000 IT 2003 1.4 3-9 2000 3 37

IT IT IT IT IT IT 90 90 IT 90 IT 90 90 1 IT 38

IT 1 IT IT 1 IT IT 4-11 IT 90 IT 0.7 IT IT 2000 6 IT 1 (Y/L)/ (Y/L)= NonIT (K NonIT/L)/ (K NonIT/L)+ IT (K IT/L)/ (K IT/L) TFP/TFP Y:, L:, K NonIT: IT, K IT: IT NonIT, IT IT IT 2 TFP 56 39

IT IT IT 1 IT TFP IT IT 6-12 90 IT 0.2 IT 2000 75 IT IT 90 IT IT IT IT IT 40

-12 IT IT IT IT 4 IT IT IT IT IT ln(y/l) = -0.338 *** + 0.292 ** ln(k NonIT/L) + 0.122 ** ln(k IT/L) Y:, L:, K NonIT: IT, K IT: IT ***1 **5 1980 2003 IT 0.122(Y/K IT) ( 7) 41

IT 97% 9 55-13 67 1 1 76 e-mail 1 1 4 4 Web IT 42

43 69 77 30

IT IT IT IT IT IT 2001 2001 IT IT / / IT = = IT IT IT / IT IT IT 44

19.0 20.5 7 IT 45

46 IT 22.3 3.5-17 IT IT

IT IT -18 IT IT IT 16 IT 9-18 47

IT IT IT IT 23.5 IT 12-19 IT IT 1 IT 48

IT 4-20 IT 8 15 IT 2 49

IT -21 IT IT IT IT -22 IT 50 ( )2003 12

IT IT IT IT IT IT 51

52

53

54

55

57 IT GPS IT IT NPO NPO

1 24 58

NTT NTT IBM 80 16 1,800 300 59

60

61

62

63

1 Business Process Re-engineering 2 64

3,800 1 2,500 142 3 4 65

66

1 ERP 2 (enterprise) (architecture) 3 67

4 Local Government Wide Area Network WAN 68

69 40

NPO Non Profit Organization; 1 NPO IT 1 70

71 NPO 62000 110000 62000 110000

2 ( ) 3 4 72

73 5 LAN

20 QOLQuality of Life QOL 74

IT IT 7 7 7 10 10 11 3 60 NPO IPv6 6 6 Internet Protocol version 6 IPv4 75

e-japan ADSL 2km ADSL ADSL NTT FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH e-japan IT Yahoo IT IT IT 20 IT IT 77

IP IT IT PC OS OS IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 78

IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT?? 3 e-japan 2001 2001 IT IT IT IT IT IT 79

IT IT IT IT IT IT TFP IT IT 90 IT ADSL 20 NTT e-japan ADSL 80

FTTH IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT ITS 81

FTTH 2000 IT e 2010 2 8000 3000 200 10 IT IT 82

IT NTT NTT NCC IT IT IT 83

goo Research 15 69 10 3 2004 8 6 2004 8 10 1,120 goo Research 2,040 2004 8 6 2004 8 17 1,423 85

IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 5 IT ln Ct = 3.49 *** + 0.51 *** ln Y t + 0.23 *** ln FA t + 0.015 ** ln ITt (7.25) (9.70) (8.60) (2.42) ln Ct = 0.000.38 *** ECt-1=+ 0.17 ** ln Yt+ 0.24 *** ln FAt+ 0.089 ** ln ITt (-0.16) (-4.21) (2.20) (2.75) (2.27) C:, Y:, FA:, IT: IT, EC: 80 1Q04 2Q t ***1 **5 C: Y: 2003 2Q~2004 2Q QE 86

FA: 93SNA 97 4Q 68SNA IT: IT IT IT (2004)IT No.12 IT IT 0.0152000 IT 56.2 IT 0.8 87

2000 2000 (t ) ln(gdp) ln(p) DD D.W. Adj.R 2 8.278 (6.291) 1.671 (3.986) 0.398 (4.169) 2.164 0.794 ln(q) ln(gdp) ln(p)dd Q GDP GDP P DD 19941996 19882002 2000 C ln(gdp) ln(p) D.W. Adj.R 2 3.890 0.697 0.612 1.869 0.859 (t ) (0.316) (0.667) (4.199) ln(q)c ln(gdp) ln(p) Q GDP GDP 88

P 2000 1 2004 1 DSLCATVFTTH 89

1IT IT (IT) ( ) 1974 1974 1974 IT 19752003 IT 1995 IT 5 IT IT IT 1974 IT (1) ( g + δ ) KIT t 1 = I t / (1) t = 75 KIT 74 1974 IT I75 1975 IT g δ 197579 IT Fraumeni (1997) 19752003 (2) KIT δ (2) t = It + ( 1 ) KITt 1 IT 1975 5 IT IT 5 IT (1)(2) 90

19852002 ( ) 1980 84 ( ) 1970 19912002 1979 198085 (1) 19802002 (2) 2003 ( ) 200203 2002 2003 (2) 2003 1995 1995 1995 2IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 1970 1995 2 19702003 91

1970 1970 1970 1995 3 ( ) ( ) 21 Hayashi and Inoue (1991) (1998) 2 19712002 t K t t It δ 1970 (3) K δ (3) t = It + ( 1 ) K t 1 2003 ( ) 200203 2002 2003 (3) 2003 1970 2 (3) 92

Y = AL α K β γ nonit K IT ( Y / L) A ( K / ) ( / ) ( ) ( nonit L K L = + β ) + γ ( IT ) Y / L A KnonIT / L KIT / L nonit ITIT IT IT IT IT 93SNA 93SNA 1980 7079 68SNA 80 2002 2003 ( )200203 93SNA 1980 7079 68SNA 80 2002 2003 ( )0203 30 ( ) ( )) (%)100(%) 93

IT (%) (%)IT ( ) IT (%) (%)IT (%) IT ( ) (IT IT ) ( (%) (%)) ( ) 94

1 Ai Ai = C + λio X IO _ i Aii TFP X IT KIT _ j X IO _ i = ( WIO ji ( )), WIO ji = K j i IT _ j M ji + D ji ( M ji + D ji ) j i W KIT_jj IT ( )jij i jii j 2 Ai Ai = C + λ I X I _ i λ O X O _ i KIT _ j X I _ i = ( WI ji ( )), WI ji = K j i IT _ j KIT _ j XO _ i = ( WO ji ( )), WO ji = K j i IT _ j M ji M ji j i D ji j i Dji 95

A( TFP) 5 Ai Ai = Yi Yi L KnonIT _ i KIT _ i α( i ) ( ) ( ) Li KnonIT _ i KIT _ i 93SNA ( ) 80 68SNA 30 SNA 5 SNA 19812002 22 484 t ** 5 * 10 1 0.030* IO I O Adjusted.R 2 D.W. (1.777) 2 0.108** 0.166 1.703 (2.031) -0.036 (-0.759) 0.169 1.706 (2004) TFP 96

1 TFP 1 IT XIO TFP TFP 97

IT IT IT IT IT α Y = AL K β nonit K γ IT ( α + β + γ = 1) ln( Y / L) = ln A + β ln( K nonit / L) + γ ln( K IT / L) Y: A: TFPL: KnonIT: IT KIT: IT adj.r 2 D.W. 0.292** (2.240) 0.122** (2.568) 1980 2003 0.996 1.593 GLS ***1 **5 *10 2003 Y, KIT, KnonIT dy Y IT = β dk nonit K nonit dy Y IT = γ dk IT K IT 98

Web IT IT ln( Y ) α + β ln( K ) + γ ln( L) + δ1dhh + δ 2DHL + δ3 = D LH Y : 2003 K : 2003 SNA 1983 1983 10 K δ it = I it + ( 1 it ) Kit 1 Kit i t, Iit i t δ i t it L: 2003 DHH, DHL, DLH : IT H L IT 99

(1) IT HH (2) IT HL (3) IT LH (4) LL IT Web IT 1,423 614 NEEDS-Financial QUEST C lnk lnl HH HL LH AdjR2 2.874 0.212 0.784 0.211 0.108 0.07 0.911 24.027 12.318 32.676 3.863 1.821 1.008 *** *** *** *** * 2.899 0.212 0.79 0.149 0.07-0.07 0.91 24.142 12.333 33.224 2.828 1.243-1.001 *** *** *** *** ***1 % **5 % *10% TFP TFP 100 δ e 1 1 δ e 2 1 δ e 3 1 δ 1, δ 2, δ 3 HH, HL, LH IT 123.5 111.5 107.2 100.0 IT 116.0 107.2 93.3 100.0 IT 100

IT 10 *** * *** IT ** ** *** IT * *** *** ***1 % **5 % *10% 1423 614 IT IT IT IT IT IT 101

*** *** *** *** *** *** IT *** *** *** IT *** *** *** ***1 % **5 % *10% IT 4 3 2 1 IT 1 6 23 1 5 5 1 4 9 1 3 10 1 2 1 e-mail 1 1 5 25 1 4 610 1 3 1 2 e-mail 1 102

3 2 1 + 1 + 1 4 3 2 1 IT 4 3 2 1 103

4 3 2 1 IT IT 5 4 3 2 1 104

IT (2004) (1998) (2000)IT No.4 (2004) (2003)2002 (2004) 2004 (2003) 2004 (2004) 2004 (2003) IT ( ) (2004) IT No.19 (2004) (2003) Economic Review Vol.7 No.3 (2003)IT JIP ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.41 (2002) RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-J-018 (2003) (1999) 10 Fraumeni, Barbara M(1997) The Measurement of Depreciation in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, Survey of Current Business, July, pp.7-23 Hayashi.F and Inoue.T (1991) The Relation between Firm Growth Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms, Econometrica 59, pp.731-753 ITU (International Telecommunication Union (Each year edition)) ITU Telecommunication Indicators ITU(2003) Internet Reports 2003: Birth of Broadband 105

Jorgenson,D. and Motohashi,K. (2004) Potential Growth of the Japanese and U.S. Economies in the Information Age Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.88 Miyagawa.T, Ito.Y, Harada.N (2004) The IT Revolution and Productivity Growth in Japan Solow, Robert M. (1987) We d Better Watch Out New York Times Book Review, July12, 1987 pp.36 U.S. Department of Commerce (Each year edition) Digital Economy 106