2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA : 202-522-2422 E : pubrights@worldbank.org. 03
04 19 20 a b c d e f 1999 99.6% 10 10 DRM GFDRR
Alanna Simpson Rick Murnane Keiko Saito Emma Phillips Robert Reid Anne Himmelfarb Understanding Risk: The Evolution of Disaster Risk Assessment 50 Abigail Baca Jack Campbell Vivien Deparday Marc Forni Ben Fox Rashmin Gunasekera Oscar Ishizawa Daniel Kull James Newman Fernando Ramirez Robert Soden Annegien Tijssen Joaquin Toro Jon Walton Kate Stillwell Kamal Kishore Andrew Jones Nicola Ranger UNISDR Jonathan Griffin David Lallemant Steven Wong Anne Kiremidjian Philip J. Ward Brenden Jongman Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Arno Bouwman Rens van Beek Marc F. P. Bierkens Willem Ligtvoet Hessel C. Winsemius GEM Swarna Kazi Pete Thomas Francis Ghesquiere Zoubida Allaoua Rachel Kyte James Close Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Fernando Ramírez- Cortés Oscar A. Ishizawa Juan Carlos Lam Niels B. Holm-Nielsen InaSAFE BNPB GFDRR Jason Brown 05
06 2012 1980 500 10 2,000 GFDRR 2013 30 3 1 64 1666 1812 1871 1872 1906 95% 1923 4 Disaster Risk Management 2015 10 Understanding Disaster Risk in an Evolving World: Emerging Best Practices in Disaster Risk Assessment 40
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08 2. 3. スクの 及び の み 災害 スクは 単に すると ー スクにさ されて る度合 性の 3 の 能要 に け れる ( を ) た この単 な み スク評価と スクモデ ン に けた の ローチが可能 る リスク評価の要素 ハザード潜在的な破壊的現象の可能性と見込み リスクにさらされている度合いコミュニティに重要な資産の位置 属性 価値 北緯 27.7000 度 東緯 85.3333 度 材質 : シンダーブロック屋根 : スチール 脆弱性影響リスク 災害発生時に資産が損害を受ける または破壊される可能性 destroyed when exposed to a hazard eve 50% 60% 単一の事象によって住民及び資産に起こり得る事柄の評価 事前準備に利用 すべての潜在的な事象 (100 件または 1,000 件のモデル ) による複合的な影響
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3. 10 GFDRR 2011 Open Data for Resilience Initiative OpenDRI 20 GeoNode 1,300 OpenStreetMap 2 3 2009 (Build Back Better) 4. InaSAFE InaSAFE InaSAFE InaSAFE InaSAFE InaSAFE 11
12 4 50 125 3,000 Understanding Risk InaSAFE 1934 8.1 1990 5 2010 12 5000 2020 24 2050 1 5 8000 20 40 5.
6. 1 1 7. IPCC 2012 8. 100 1 38 8123 13
14 9. 10. 10 80 30 QGIS GeoNode
Understanding Disaster Risk in an Evolving World: Emerging Best Practices in Disaster Risk Assessment D.C. GFDRR Dr. Alanna Simpson asimpson1@worldbank.org (ymakino@worldbank.org) Jack Campbell (jcampbell2@worldbank.org) GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). 2014. Open Data for Resilience Initiative Field Guide. Washington, DC: World Bank. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A special report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press. World Bank and GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). 2013. Building Resilience: Integrating Climate and Disaster Risk into Development The World Bank Group Experience. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://www. worldbank.org/content/dam/worldbank/document/ SDN/Full_Report_Building_Resilience_Integrating_ Climate_Disaster_Risk_Development.pdf. World Bank. 2012. The Sendai Report: Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future. https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/ files/publication/sendai_report_051012_0.pdf World Bank Group Flickr Website Joaquin Toro, World Bank Group 15
40 50 GFDRR GFDRR 300 GFDRR 20 2013 4 2014 2 ymakino@worldbank.org Jack Campbell jcampbell2@worldbank.org WWW.GFDRR.ORG