gofman2.eps

2011 7 10 4 7 1 ICRP(2007) 5.7 10 2 Sv 1 1 13 (=4600 =11 =660 ) 10mSv 5.7 10 4 4600[] =2.6[] ICRP 0 1 licrp 1 2 1 DDREF ICRP(2007) (ICRP 2007, p.178) - (idem., p.174) 1Sv - (DDREF: dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor)2 (idem., p.187) (QOL) 1Sv 5.7 10 2 Sv 1 10mSv 5.7 10 4 [10mSv] 1 (10mSv 10mSv ) 30 1 10 3 [10mSv] 1 ICRP 2 ( 2011)2.556 10 3 [10mSv] 1 ICRP 5 (Gofman 1990) 100mSv ( 1998) 2011 6 12 6 24 910-1195 4-1-1 : 0776-61-6000 1 http://gcoe.eis.ynu.ac.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/jjj1.pdf 1

1.1 125mSv 125mSv (ERR: excess relative risk) 01.5 ( 0.74) 1 2.5 95% (Preston et al. 2003, p.388) 125mSv 0 ERR 100mSv ERR 0.64 0 70%50mSv ERR 0.93 0 85% (ibid.) 125mSv 100mSv (idem., p.387)5msv 76% 200mSv 64% 100mSv ICRP (ICRP2007, p.176) EPA NAS/NRC(National Academy of Science/ National Research Council) 7 (BEIR VII) ICRP (NAS/NRC 2006, pp.74-75) NAS/NRC DNA (NAS/NRC 2006, pp.75, 89)ICRP DNA (ICRP2007, pp.174-175) ICRP NAS/NRC 1.2 DDREF ICRP DDREF 2 2007 DDREF 2 1990 2 BEIR VII DDREF 1 2

-2 D ERR ERR = α L D + βd 2 D H - α H âýü '' / + / j j ' + 1: DDREF α L α H = α LD H + βd 2 H D H = α L + βd H α H α L =1+ β α L D H α H /α L DDREF DDREF 2 1 β/α L D H -2 2-2 D H DDREF z~öñð *. d d&* d& * 2: DDREF DDREF -2 β/α L ICRP2007 α H DDREF β/α L DDREF 2 3

3 - D H α H β/α L D H DDREF 1000 Cancer Death-Rate per 10,000 Initial Persons (1950-1982) 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Organ-Dose (msv) in DS86 3: (Gofman 1990, Table 13-A ) BEIR VII -2 1.5Sv D H 1Sv BEIR VII (NAS/NRC 2006, p.248) (idem., p.250)β/α L 0.3 D H =1Sv α H DDREF 1.3 BEIR VII β/α L 0.5 DDREF 1.5 () (NAS/NRC 2006, p.256)-2 BEIR VII DDREF 1.5β/α L =0.5- ERR =(α H /0.5)D +0.75α H D 2 95% DDREF 1.5 (idem., p.250) - -2 2 β β/α L α H α L α L DDREF ICRP DDREF 2 2 10mSv ERR 4

2.1 2009 79.59 86.44 0 15 64.93 71.75 90 4.48 5.86 4 51öÑ > 577425 :986: >58/33 :986: 577425 4: ( 5) Ñ > :986: :986: 577425. 5: 2.2 (Gofman 1990) 09 10mSv 10 2.565%62 10 433.4 10mSv 433.4 0.02565 = 11.11 62 11.11 5 10mSv 0.091 (33.1 ) 0.050 (18.4 ) 10mSv 1 4.9 10 10 110 1.1 10 3 [10mSv] 1 5

1: 10mSv Gofman ERR ERR () () (10 ) () () (10 ) 0 0.02565 0.091 33.1 777.7 0.06617 0.232 85.0 1987.5 5 0.02565 0.091 33.1 777.5 0.06617 0.233 85.0 1987.0 15 0.00647 0.023 8.3 196.8 0.01484 0.052 19.1 450.5 27 0.00150 0.005 1.9 45.5 0.00334 0.012 4.3 101.5 42 0.00297 0.010 3.6 88.0 0.00463 0.015 5.6 137.3 60 0.00140 0.003 1.1 32.6 0.00314 0.007 2.4 72.5 0.015 5.4 131.1 0.035 12.6 304.0 0 0.01771 0.050 18.4 370.4 0.04388 0.124 45.4 914.4 5 0.01771 0.050 18.4 370.3 0.04388 0.124 45.4 914.1 15 0.01081 0.031 11.2 226.0 0.02470 0.070 25.5 515.3 27 0.00442 0.012 4.5 91.9 0.01000 0.028 10.1 207.9 42 0.00250 0.006 2.3 50.1 0.00557 0.014 5.0 111.4 60 0.00252 0.004 1.5 41.8 0.00543 0.009 3.2 90.0 0.012 4.4 95.7 0.028 10.2 220.7 0 0.071 25.9 579.4 0.180 65.6 1464.9 0-9 0.071 25.9 579.1 0.180 65.7 1464.1 10-19 0.027 9.7 211.0 0.061 22.2 482.1 20-34 0.009 3.2 68.3 0.020 7.1 153.6 34-49 0.008 2.9 69.2 0.015 5.3 124.5 50-0.004 1.3 37.6 0.008 2.8 82.0 0.013 4.9 112.9 0.031 11.4 261.3 ) 09101920343549 50 515274260 2009 10 091019203435 4950 4.45%4.83%9.21%10.33%19.91% 0910192034354950 4.23%4.60%8.83%10.16%23.46% 1 10 3 [10mSv] 1 2.556 10 3 [10mSv] 1 ( 0.75 ) 5mSv 1 5 10mSv 0.233 (85.0 ) 0.124 (45.4 ) 11.4 2.613 10 3 [10mSv] 1 2.3 x d Sv y (ERR) ERR =0.35de 0.038(x 30) 0.7log(y/70) (1) ERR =0.59de 0.038(x 30) 0.7log(y/70) (2) ERR =0.37de 0.045(x 30) (3) 6

ERR =0.63de 0.045(x 30) (4) (Preston et al. 2003, p.389) (1) (2) ERR (3) (4) ERR ( ) (1) (2) 30 70 ERR (3) (4) 30 ERR 90%0.240.460.450.740.260.49 0.490.79 (ibid.) 10 ERR 0 2 10mSv ERR 0 14.7 (90% 2: 10mSv Preston et al.(2003) ERR ERR ERR () () (10 ) () () (10 ) 0 0.049 14.7 (10.1-19.3) 317.5 (217.9-417.0) 0.01427 0.050 18.4 (13.0-24.4) 433.9 (305.2-574.0) 5 0.033 12.1 (8.3-15.9) 262.4 (180.1-344.7) 0.01140 0.040 14.7 (10.0-19.5) 346.6 (243.8-458.7) 15 0.022 8.2 (5.6-10.7) 179.1 (122.8-235.2) 0.00727 0.026 9.4 (6.6-12.4) 221.0 (155.4-292.5) 27 0.014 5.1 (3.5-6.7) 112.9 (77.4-148.4) 0.00423 0.015 5.4 (3.8-7.2) 128.5 (90.3-170.1) 42 0.007 2.7 (1.8-3.5) 61.8 (42.4-81.2 ) 0.00216 0.007 2.6 (1.8-3.5) 63.9 (44.9-84.6) 60 0.002 0.8 (0.5-1.0) 23.5 (16.1-30.9 ) 0.00096 0.002 0.7 (0.5-1.0) 22.4 (15.7-29.6 ) 0.010 3.8 (2.6-5.0) 85.7 (58.8-112.6) 0.011 4.1 (2.9-5.5) 100.5 (70.7-133.1) 0 0.055 20.1 (15.3-25.2) 362.4 (276.6-454.3) 0.02430 0.069 25.2 (19.6-31.6) 507.8 (315.7-508.3) 5 0.045 16.6 (12.6-20.8) 299.4 (228.5-375.4) 0.01941 0.055 20.1 (15.7-25.2) 405.6 (315.7-508.3) 15 0.031 11.2 (8.5-14.1) 204.3 (155.9-256.2) 0.01237 0.035 12.8 (9.9-16.0) 258.6 (201.2-324.1) 27 0.019 6.8 (5.2-8.6) 128.1 (97.8-160.8) 0.00721 0.020 7.3 (5.7-9.2) 149.9 (116.6-188.0) 42 0.009 3.3 (2.5-4.1) 68.6 (52.3-86.0 ) 0.00367 0.009 3.3 (2.6-4.2) 73.5 (57.2-92.2) 60 0.003 1.0 (0.8-1.3) 27.6 (21.0-34.6 ) 0.00163 0.003 1.0 (0.7-1.2) 27.1 (21.1-34.0) 0.013 4.7 (3.6-5.9) 91.3 (69.7-114.5) 0.014 5.2 (4.0-6.5) 109.5 (85.2-137.2) 0 0.047 17.3 (12.6-22.2) 339.4 (246.5-435.2) 0.059 21.7 (16.2-27.9) 420.1 (310.3-542.0) 0-9 0.039 14.3 (10.4-18.3) 280.5 (203.7-359.6) 0.048 17.4 (12.9-22.3) 375.4 (278.8-482.8) 10-19 0.026 9.7 (7.0-12.4) 191.4 (139.0-245.5) 0.030 11.0 (8.2-14.2) 239.3 (177.7-307.9) 20-34 0.016 6.0 (4.3-7.6) 120.4 (87.4-154.4) 0.017 6.3 (4.7-8.1) 139.0 (103.2-178.9) 35-49 0.008 3.0 (2.2-3.8) 65.2 (47.3-83.6 ) 0.008 3.0 (2.2-3.8) 68.7 (51.0-88.4) 50-0.002 0.9 (0.7-1.2) 25.7 (18.8-32.9 ) 0.002 0.9 (0.6-1.1) 24.9 (18.6-32.0) 0.012 4.2 (3.1-5.4) 88.6 (64.4-113.6) 0.013 4.7 (3.5-6.0) 105.1 (78.1-135.2) ) 1 10.119.3 )0 20.1 (90% 15.325.2 ) 4.2 (90% 3.15.4 ) 8.9 10 4 [10mSv] 1 (90% 6.4 10 4 1.1 10 3 [10mSv] 1 ) ERR 0 18.4 (90% 13.0 24.4 )0 25.2 (90% 20.031.6 ) 4.7 (90% 3.56.0 ) 1.1 10 3 [10mSv] 1 (90% 7.8 10 4 1.4 10 3 [10mSv] 1 ) 10mSv 30 2030 7

2.4 ( 3) ERR 3: 10mSv Gofman Gofman Preston et al. ERR () (10 ) () (10 ) () (10 ) 0 0.02565 0.082 1.93 0.06617 0.212 4.99 0.036 (0.025-0.047) 0.79 5 0.02565 0.082 1.93 0.06617 0.212 4.99 0.030 (0.020-0.039) 0.79 15 0.00647 0.021 0.49 0.01484 0048 1.12 0.020 (0.014-0.027) 0.44 27 0.00150 0.005 0.11 0.00334 0.011 0.25 0.013 (0.009-0.017) 0.28 42 0.0297 0.009 0.22 0.00463 0.014 0.38 0.007 (0.005-0.009) 0.15 60 0.0014 0.003 0.08 0.00314 0.006 0.18 0.002 (0.001-0.003) 0.06 0.013 0.32 0.031 0.76 0.009 (0.006-0.012) 0.21 0 0.01771 0.124 2.99 0.04388 0.307 7.41 0.125 (0.096-0.157) 2.88 5 0.01771 0.124 2.99 0.04388 0.308 7.41 0.104 (0.079-0.130) 2.34 15 0.01081 0.075 1.82 0.02470 0.172 4.17 0.070 (0.054-0.088) 1.59 27 0.00442 0.031 0.75 0.01000 0.070 1.69 0.045 (0.034-0.056) 1.01 42 0.00250 0.017 0.42 0.00557 0.038 0.93 0.024 (0.018-0.030) 0.56 60 0.00252 0.013 0.38 0.00543 0.029 0.81 0.009 (0.007-0.011) 0.25 0.032 0.79 0.074 1.83 0.031 (0.024-0.039) 0.73 0 0.102 2.45 0.258 6.17 0.079 (0.059-0.101) 1.78 0-9 0.103 2.45 0.259 6.17 0.066 (0.049-0.084) 1.47 10-19 0.047 1.14 0.109 2.61 0.045 (0.033-0.057) 1.01 20-34 0.018 0.42 0.040 0.95 0.028 (0.021-0.036) 0.64 35-49 0.013 0.32 0.026 0.63 0.015 (0.011-0.019) 0.36 50-0.008 0.24 0.018 0.52 0.006 (0.004-0.007) 0.16 0.023 0.57 0.053 1.31 0.021 (0.015-0.026) 0.48 3 3.1 1 DDREF ERR (10mSv ) 4: 300 200 300 200 () 2000 500 4 8

252 /kg 2 350 /kg 450 /kg 20 4 429 /kg 86 /kg () 83 /kg 3.2 3 16 4 637 428 5 5: (Bq/kg) 55 152.2 226.3 105 1219.6 2340.8 2 44.0 35.0 44 1071.8 1342.5 11 9.0 0.0 6 11.2 20.5 20 164.3 16.9 185 688.9 1914.9 444.8 729.5 ) 2008-09 ND 0 131 1kg 6 6: (msv/bq) (3) 5 (20 ) 134() 2.6 10 5 1.3 10 5 1.9 10 5 137() 2.1 10 5 9.6 10 6 1.3 10 5 131() 3.7 10 3 2.1 10 3 4.3 10 4 ) ICRP(1995), p.27 ICRP(1992), p.153. 1.6mSv0.93mSv.19mSv ERR 3.6 10 5 (2.7 10 5 4.5 10 5 ) 1.7 10 5 (1.3 10 5 2.1 10 5 )1.5 10 6 (1.1 10 5 1.9 10 5 ) 8.1 10 5 (5.9 10 5 1.1 10 4 )3.2 10 5 (2.4 10 5 4.1 10 5 )1.9 10 5 (1.4 10 5 2.4 10 5 ) 2 (2008-2009) 9

1.2 10 4 (9.3 10 5 1.5 10 4 )4.9 10 5 (3.6 10 5 6.3 10 5 )2.1 10 5 (1.5 10 5 2.6 10 5 ) 3.3 1 1kg 252 220 (170 270 ) 510 (400 700 ) 1200 (960 1700 ) 1 (CPLYS: cost per life-year saved) 7 3 7: (Bq/kg) CPLYS(/) 445 730 220 (170-270) 510 (400-700) 1200 ( 960-1700) 3940 289 120 ( 97-160) 260 (210-360) 2100 (1600-2800) 1020 189 420 (330-560) 910 (720-1200) 5100 (4000-7000) 443 186 760 (600-1000) 1700 (1300-2100) 6800 (5300-9200) 740 45 660 (520-890) 1400 (1100-1900) 12000 (9300-16000) () 214 8 460 (360-620) 980 (770-1300) 8900 (7000-12000) ( 2006190 ) 1 1 5000 4500 5 7000 CPLYS (WTP) WTP WTP (VSL: value of a statistical life) VSL 1986 160 850 1997 480 1990 90 4 3 5000 (Tsuge et al. 2005) 1986 160 850 2010 5 280 1500 2010 87.8 /2.5 13 1997 480 5.5 3.5 1 40 1 WTP 630 3300 3 5000 880 3 429 /kg 83 /kg 4 (2006) 174 5 GDP GDP 2010 1986 1.76 10

CPLYS 880 CPLYS 8 8: CPLYS(/) 1300 (1100-1800) 3000 (2400-4100) 9000 (7100-12000) 2500 (2000-3400) 5500 (4300-7400) 28000 (22000-38000) 6900 (5400-9400) 16000 (12000-21000) 58000 (36000-79000) 2100 (1600-2800) 4500 (3500-6000) 28000 (22000-38000) 19000 (15000-26000) 48000 (38000-66000) 82000 (64000-110000) 8100 (6400-11000) 18000 (14000-24000) 89000 (70000-120000) 17000 (14000-24000) 40000 (31000-54000) 120000 (95000-170000) 1200 (970-1700) 2700 (2100-3600) 20000 (15000-27000) 72000 (57000-93000) 170000 (130000-230000) 420000 (330000-580000) 8200 (6500-11000) 18000 (14000-24000) 15000 (12000-21000) 65000 (51000-87000) 140000 (110000-190000) 1400000 (1100000-1900000) 3.4 1 v 10mSv l 1Bq d msv 1kg q Bq 1kg p vldq 10 p q = 10p vld [Bq/kg] 9 430 /kg250 /kg83 /kg1500 /kg 1kg 100 /kg p l 2 d 6 0 09 v 880 3300 1998 6 1 (I-131 I-132, I-133, I-134, I-135, Te-132 ) 33.3mSv (Cs-134 Cs-137 Sr-89 Sr-90 ) 5mSv 7 6 ( 10 3 6 ) 7 1 7.2mSv 20.7mSv 25.9mSv 3.2mSv 1.2mSv 2.3mSv 11

9: (a) 1 880 (Bq/kg) 0 0-9 10-19 20-34 440 (340-600) 1100 (860-1500) 1200 (900-1600) 1900 (1500-2600) 260 (200-350) 640 (500-880) 670 (520-920) 1100 (850-1500) 85 (66-120) 210 (170-290) 220 (170-310) 360 (280-500) 1529 (1200-2100) 3900 (3000-5300) 4000 (3100-5500) 6500 (5100-9000) 100 (80-140) 260 (200-350) 270 (210-370) 440 (340-600) 35-49 50-3800 (2900-5100) 12000 (9600-17000) 2900 (2300-4000) 2200 (1700-3000) 7100 (5600-9700) 1700 (1300-2300) 720 (560-990) 2400 (1800-3200) 560 (440-760) 13000 (10000-18000) 43000 (33000-58000) 10000 (7900-14000) 870 (680-1200) 2800 (2200-3900) 670 (520-920) ) 430 /kg250 /kg83 /kg 1500 /kg 1kg 100 /kg (b) 1 3300 (Bq/kg) 0 0-9 10-19 20-34 120 (91-160) 300 (230-400) 310 (240-420) 500 (390-680) 68 (53-93) 170 (130-240) 180 (140-250) 290 (230-400) 23 (18-31) 57 (44-78) 59 (46-81) 96 (75-130) 410 (320-560) 1000 (800-1400) 1100 (840-1500) 1700 (1400-2400) 27 (21-37) 69 (54-94) 72 (56-98) 120 (91-160) 35-49 50-1000 (780-1400) 3300 (2600-4500) 770 (600-1100) 580 (450-800) 1900 (1500-2600) 450 (350-610) 190 (150-270) 630 (490-860) 150 (120-200) 3500 (2700-4800) 11000 (8900-16000) 2700 (2100-3700) 230 (180-320) 760 (590-1000) 180 (140-250) ) (a) (ICRP) 1984 1993 1 550mSv 50500mSv 5mSv 50mSv 5mSv 50mSv 3 2 9 1 880 () 19 1 3300 0 34 0 49 500Bq/kg 1 3300 12

4 ( 2006) 2 1 1 WTP WTP WTP 10 1 1mSv 10 9 09 10 30 3.2mSv 1.2mSv 2.3mSv ( 4 ) 1mSv 1.4 3.4 ( 880 /) 200 1 1mSv 680 20mSv 20mSv 29 10mSv 14 4.2 880 / 34 11 3300 / 130 40 13

[1] Gofman, J.W. (1990), Radiation-Induced Cancer from Low-Dose Exposure: an Independent Analysis, Committee for Nuclear Responsibility, Inc. [2] (2011) http://www.rerf.or.jp/rerfrad.pdf [3] ICRP (1992), Age-dependent Doses to Members of the Public from Intake of Radionuclides Part 2 Ingestion Dose Coefficients: ICRP Publication 67, Annals of the ICRP, 22 (3-4). [4] ICRP (1995), Age-dependent Doses to the Members of the Public from Intake of Radionuclides Part 5 Compilation of Ingestion and Inhalation Coefficients: ICRP Publication 72, Annals of the ICRP, 26 (1). [5] ICRP (2007), The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection: ICRP Publication 103, Annals of the ICRP, 37 (2-4). [6] (1998) 3 () [7] NAS/NRC (2006), Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR VII Phase 2. Board on Radiation Effects Research. National Research Council of the National Academies. [8] (2006) [9] Preston, D.L., Shimizu, Y., Pierce, D.A., Suyama, A. and Mabuchi, K. (2003), Studies of Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Report 13: Solid Cancer and Noncancer Disease Mortality: 1950-1997, Radiation Research, 160, 381-407. [10] Tsuge, T., Kishimoto, A. and Takeuchi, K. (2005), A Choice Experiment Approach to the Valuation of Mortality, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 31, 73-95. 14