2003
output gap 80 1
20 90 20 70 2
1 2 output gap potential output 1 2 (2001) 3
potential rate of growth 2000 Meyer (2000) European Central Bank: (1999b) 2002 10 4 3 (2000) 4 4
() 5 5 5
6 () () 7 Total Factor Productivity: ln= (-a) lna lnln() a90 0.71 ln 6 7 6
8 ln = (-a) ln a ln ln () () ()() 8 (2001) Constant Elasticity of Substitution 7
() () 9 10 9 10 (2001) (2001) 8
65 65 65 65 65 65 (a)80 90 (b)90 (1) 11 80 90 11 4846 88 4644 91 4440 94 88 94 97 9799 9
(2) () 12 () () () 13 12 Solow 13 10
80 90 14 15 90 10 14 88 94 (1) 15 11
Phillips(1958) Samuelson and Solow(1960) 11 16 7080 11 20 16 Stock and Watson(1999) 12
17 12 0.4 12 18 20 70 19 90 17 18 (2000) 19 20 20 13
0.7 95 2.7 9395 992000 2000 13 20 9395 992000 14 2000 20 (2000) 14
21. 22 15 23 21 Nishizaki and Watanabe(2000) Akerlof et al.(1996) 22 (2001) 23 (2002)(2002) 100 0 15
20 24 24 16
25 26 27 2001 8.9 1.4 25 26 10 27 Congressional Budget Office: CBO CBO (1995) 17
12 28 28 Hodrick Prescott () 2 ( ) 2 () 18
16 28 Hodrick Prescott W = 100 W = 1600 W = 14400Hodrick and Prescott (1997)(1998) 19
29 17 17 30 31 29 Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment 30 (2002) 31 (2001) 20
17 32 90 18 33 18 Staiger et al.(1997) Gordon(1997) 32 17 17 17 33 (2002) 21
34 35 36 19 34 90 35 1012 2002 12 30 36 22
90 37 0.5 20 38 2001 1.7 0.3 90 99 9394 37 38 20 23
2001 99 90 24
21 25
26
[] International Monetary Fund: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development: De Masi(1997)Bayoumi(2000) 2001 2.42002 11 (2002) 27
Giorno et al. (1995)2001 1.42002 11 OECD (2002) 39 2001 2001 12 (2001) 39 13 28
29
(2002) 2002 (2001) GDP 20 2 (2001) 2001 11 (2000) 19 1 (2001) 13 (2002) No. 2002-J-21 (2002)2002 10 2002 11 (1998) 17 6 (2001) GDP No. 01-7 (2002) NAIRU No. 02-8 (2000) 19 2 Akerlof, G., W. Dickens and G. Perry (1996), The macroeconomics of low 30
inflation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 1-59. Bayoumi, T. (2000), Where Are We Going? The Output Gap and Potential Growth, Post-Bubble Blues: How Japan Responded to Asset Price Collapse, T. Bayoumi and C. Collyns, ed., International Monetary Fund, Washington D. C., USA. Bayoumi, T., C. Towe, J. Morsink, I. Oishi and J. Levy (1998), Japan-Selected Issues, IMF Staff Courntry Report, No. 98/113. Congressional Budget Office (1995), CBO s Method for Estimating Potential Output, CBO Memorandum, October 1995. De Masi, P. R. (1997), IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/177. European Central Bank (1999a), The Stability-Oriented Monetary Policy Strategy of the Eurosystem, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, January 1999, pp. 39-50. (1999b), The Role of Short-Term Economic Indicators in the Analysis of Price Developments in the Euro Area, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, April 1999, pp. 27-39. (2000), Potential Output Growth and Output Gaps: Concept, Uses and Estimates, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, October 2000, pp. 37-48. Giorno, C., P. Richardson, D. Roseveare and P. van den Noord (1995), Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances, OECD Economic Studies, No. 24, 1995/I. Gordon, R. J. (1997), The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implication for Economic Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 11-32. Hodrick, R. J., and E. C. Prescott (1997), Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 1-16. International Monetary Fund (2002), World Economic Outlook, September 31
2002. Meyer, L. H. (2000), The Economic Outlook and the Challenges Facing Monetary Policy, Remarks by Governor Laurence H. Meyer before the Toronto Association for Business and Economics, Toronto, Canada April 12, 2000. Nishizaki, K. and T. Watanabe (2000), Output-Inflation Trade-Off at Near- Zero Inflation Rates, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 14, pp. 304-26. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2002), OECD Economic Outlook, Vol. 72, November 2002. Phillips, A. W. (1958), The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, Economica, Vol. 25, pp. 283-99. Samuelson, P. A., and R. M. Solow (1960), Analytical Aspects of Anti- Inflation Policy, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 177-94. Staiger, D., J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson (1997), The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 33-49. Stock, J. H., and M. W. Watson (1999), Forecasting Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 293-335. 32
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