128 74 2 21 3 128 134 Journal of the Japanese Association for Petroleum Technology Vol. 74, No. 2 March, 2009 pp. 128 134 Lecture * ** Received February 23, 2009 accepted February 26, 2009 The impact of skyrocketing oil prices Kouichi Iwama Abstract The year 2008 was the historical and memorable year from the view of crude oil prices. Skyrocketing oil prices resulted from the following reasons. The first reason is the rapid economic growth in BRICs such as China and India. The second reason is rebirth of nationalism in major oil producing countries. The third reason is financial capitalism of crude oil future market. Now, the major players in NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange are financial institutions, hedge funds and commodity index funds. The movement of crude oil prices depends on sentimental factors such as crude oil stock level and nuclear weapon development in Iran. On July 11 2008, crude oil prices reached recorded 147.27 dollars per barrel. And then, crude oil prices fell rapidly to 30 dollars per barrel after the bankrupt of the famous investment bank. I think neither 150 dollars per barrel nor 30 dollars per barrel are adequate prices which reflected the fundamental of world demand and supply of crude oil. The excessive fluctuation of crude oil prices gives the great damage to all consumers and companies. The future of world economy depends upon the success of green new deal policy of the United States. Keywords Skyrocketing oil prices, BRICs, NYMEX, Oil Future Market, Hedge Funds 1. 2008 WTI 7 11 147.2 $/bbl 9 15 2008 30 $/bbl 100 $/bbl 1 2008 200 $/bbl NYMEX 2008 100 1 * 20 10 28, 20 This paper was presented at the 2008 JAPT Autumn Meeting entitled Oil and natural gas development in an environment of high oil prices held in Tokyo, Japan on October 28, 2008. ** Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Wako University 2008 OPEC 2008 2. 2003 1986 1988 2 10 $/bbl 20 $/bbl 15 2003 3 20 1 20 Copyright 2009 JAPT
129 1 20 BP 2008 6 7 21 13 11 30 100 bbl/d 200 bbl/d 2 3 2 3 4 1970 2 2003 1983 WTI 20 Commercial 21 Non-Commercial NYMEX 1 21 1 bbl 2008 16 bbl 2 bbl/d BP J. Japanese Assoc. Petrol. Technol. Vol. 74, No. 2 2009
130 3 ICE WTI 2008 3. 2008 2008 2 2008 1929 10 24 100 1 1 2008 2008 7 11 147.27 $/bbl 2008 100 $/bbl 10 20 $/bbl 1 2 3 1970 2008 7 1 2008 80 $/bbl 60 70 $/bbl 2008 9 15 2008 12 17 WTI 30 $/bbl 5 100 $/bbl 3 1 9 10 11 2008 7 1 4. 2008 2008 2008 1 2 WTI 74 2 2009
131 100 $/bbl 2008 7 11 147.27 $/bbl 1859 150 1973 1 100 1 3 $/bbl 1973 4 1 1979 2 3 36 $/bbl 12 OPEC 1980 40 $/bbl 1986 1988 10 $/bbl 2003 20 10 20 $/bbl 1983 NYMEX WTI 21 1 5 $/bbl 21 8 9 1 5 10 $/bbl 2008 1 WTI 1 50 2004 9 27 60 2005 6 23 70 2005 8 28 80 2007 9 12 90 2007 10 18 100 2008 1 2 110 2008 3 12 120 2008 5 5 130 2008 5 21 140 2008 6 26 147.27 2008 7 11 3 1 21 10% 8% 20 7 21 30 BRICs 2 2003 3 MEND 21 1 2 3 2008 2007 8 9 BNP 3 J. Japanese Assoc. Petrol. Technol. Vol. 74, No. 2 2009
132 2,000 300 2,000 15 20 2000 NYMEX 1 bbl/d 2008 16 bbl/d WTI 30 bbl/d 5,300 2008 150 $/bbl 200 $/bbl 2008 5 2008 7 11 147.27 $/bbl 2008 2008 12 4 2009 25 $/bbl 2008 5 150 200 $/bbl 2008 12 25 $/bbl 2008 40 $/bbl 147.27 $/bbl 40 $/bbl 5. 2008 12 13 3% 2007 4 $/US gallon 2008 2008 2008 9 15 2008 9 100 $/bbl 2008 12 5 WTI 40.50 $/bbl 2004 2008 9 2008 11 1 OPEC 150 bbl/d 2008 2008 7 3 1 3 1 2008 1 2008 74 2 2009
133 4 / IEA 2008 12 11 2008 2007 8,600 bbl/d 20 bbl/d 8,580 bbl/d 2 1983 25 IEA IEA 2008 2008 2 OPEC OPEC 11 1 300 bbl/d 12 17 OPEC OPEC 2008 12 17 OPEC 200 bbl/d 220 bbl/d 2009 1 1 40 $/bbl 3 2008 7 5 IEA IEA J. Japanese Assoc. Petrol. Technol. Vol. 74, No. 2 2009
134 2 2008 2008 2008 2008 9 6. 2008 1 2008 2008 2008 9 3 2008 3 28 2008 9 11 30% 60% 2009 2 32.4% 1 1974 35 2008 2 1 3 1 11 IT 24 1 1974 1979 2 4 1929 24 21 2008 2009 2009 1 20 2008 1 SI bbl 1.589874 E 01 m 3 US gallon 3.785412 E 03 m 3 74 2 2009