1 RITE RITE RITE
DNE21+1/2 2 200 300 CO2 54 2000 2050 2020 2050
DNE21+2/2 3 GDP CO2 CO2 CO2 $/tco2
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 BF-BOF scrap-eaf 4 Energy consumption per unit production of crude steel (toe/ton-cs) US Canada UK France Germany Japan Australia Korea China India Russia 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 US Canada UK France Germany Japan Australia Energy consumption per unit production Korea China India Russia : 1MWh=0.086/0.33toe : IEA (2006) IISI (2005) RITE : 1MWh=0.086/0.33toe : Humphreys and Mahasenan (2002) IEA (2006) RITE (2000) toe/ton-clinker toe/ton-cement (2000)
5 Crude steel production (10 2 million ton ( / )_ per year) 7 6 5 4 3 2 Statistics China India US Japan Korea Russia Germany UK Spain 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Brazil Indonesia 16 14 Statistics China India Cement production (10 2 million ton per ( / ) year) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year US Japan Korea Russia Germany UK Spain Brazil Indonesia
2020 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 EU27 199030% 200527.8% EU27 199020% 200517.5% 2005-40% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% : CO 2 GHGs 199020% 200514% 6 United States Canada EU-27 Norway, Iceland Other Western Europe Japan Australia New Zealand Russia Other Annex I of FUSSR Marginal cost of CO2 emission reduction [$/tco2] - EU-27 CO2199020% 30% 200517.5% 27.8% 50US$/tCO2 75US$/tCO2
2020 50$/tCO2 United States Elec.: Fuel switching among fossil fuels Elec.: Nuclear 7 EU-27 Japan Russia China India Annex I & OECD Major developing countries Other developing countries Elec.: Renewables Elec.: Energy saving Other energy conversion sectors Iron & steel Cement Paper & pulp Chemical Aluminum Other industries Transport Res. & com. sectors 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 CO 2 emission reduction potential (MtCO 2 /yr) CCS
8 CCS
9
RITE 10 205054DNE21+ 215010DNE21 205018DEARS Non-CO2 GHG EPA CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 18 PHOENIX MAGICC MAGICC MIROCGCM
DNE21+ 11 CO2 2000 2050 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040, 2050 54 CO2
DNE21+ 12 54 77
DNE21+ 13 (,, ) CCS
DNE21+ 14 Type I IV : () Type VIII, IX : () Type V VII : ()
DNE21+ 15
DNE21+ 16 { ( )( )( IGCC/IGFC)CCS IGCC} { ( )( )( ) CHP}{}{ ()( NGCC)( NGCC) CHP} {}{( )} { } CCS{ } { ( )( )(CDQ TRT)( SCOPE21)} COG{ } LDG CDQ TRT{ }{()} { ( )( )( )} CCS{} SP/NSP { (SP)(NSP) }{SP/NSP } ( )SP/NSPSP/NSP (BAT){SP 5 6 } { }{} { } {} { }{} {}{} {} { () } {CNG } {} { (LED ) (LED EL )HID()HID(LED )}{ ( EL )} {} {}
DNE21+ 1/4 17 2006 10000 Population (million people) 8000 6000 4000 2000 Latin America Africa Middle East Other developing Asia India China Transition economies OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD N. America 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Year 2010 2020 2030 12,718 12,274 11,522 DNE21+ 12,776 12,449 11,825
DNE21+ 2/4 18 2005 2030 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2007 Managing the Next Wave of Globalization (2006) 2050IPCC SRES B2 140 GDP (trillion US$ at 2000 prices and ex. rates) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Year Latin America Africa Middle East Other developing Asia India China Transition economies OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD N. America GDP per capita (Y2005=100) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Year OECD N. America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Transition economies China India Other developing Asia Middle East Africa Latin America GDP% 2005-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% DNE21+ 2.3% 1.9% 1.3%
DNE21+ 3/4 19
20 Coal : 885 Gtoe Oil : 241 Gtoe (conventional), 2,340 Gtoe (unconventional) N.Gas: 243 Gtoe (conventional), 19,600 Gtoe (unconventional) Source: WEC, USGS, Rogner [$/toe] [$/toe] Coal 34-136 33 90 Conventional oil 29 81 (4.5 12.7 [$/bbl]) 202 551 (31.7 86.4 [$/bbl]) Unconventional oil 131 381 (20.5 59.8 [$/bbl]) 218 599 (34.2 94.0 [$/bbl]) Conventional gas 20-149 108 386 Unconventional gas 189-429 135-431 Source: Rogner
21 DNE21+
22 Case Negative-Cost- Achieved (NCA) Case Definition 0 $/tco2 Technologyfrozen Case CO2CO2 per GDP2005 2005 GDP2030 2006IPCC SRES B2
CO21/2 23 7 5 19 6 11 14 15 18-2020 CO2 86% 22.6Gt 8.3Gt9.0Gt 5.4Gt - NCA -
CO22/2 24 - BAU: Business as Usual Technology FrozenNCA - BAUBAU
CO 2 emission reduction potential [MtCO 2 /yr] 2020 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 United States EU-27 Japan Russia China India Annex I & OECD Major developing countries Other developing countries 50-100$/tCO2 25-50$/tCO2 0-25$/tCO2 <0$/tCO2 CCS - <25 $/tco2-25 $/tco2 I &OECD 43% - +25 $/tco2 90% - 25
2020 26 Annex I & OECD MEM NCA Case 0 $/tco2 0 $/tco2 25-0 25 $/tco2 0 $/tco2 50-0 50 $/tco2 0 $/tco2 25-25a 25 $/tco2 GDPCO2 25 $/tco2 0 $/tco2 25-25b 25 $/tco2 CO2 25 $/tco2 MEM
CO2 reduction potentials [MtCO2/yr] 20000 15000 10000 5000 CO2 (0 25$/tCO 2 ) 4.1GtCO 2 (25 50$/tCO 2 ) 1.0GtCO 2 (0 25$/tCO 2 ) 4.5GtCO 2 Major developing countries (0-25$/tCO2) Developed countries (25-50$/tCO2) Developed countries (0-25$/tCO2) Other developing countries ( 0$/tCO2) Major developing countries ( 0$/tCO2) 27 0 Baseline Negative Cost Achieved (NCA) Case Case 25-0 Case 50-0 Case 25-25a Case 25-25b Developed countries ( 0$/tCO2) CCS - 0 25 $/tco24.1 GtCO2 25 50 $/tco2 1.0 GtCO2-0 25 $/tco24.5 GtCO2 - CO2 3.8 GtCO2
2050 28 50 40 CO 2 [GtCO 2 /yr] 30 20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CCS CCS CCS CO2 RITE DNE21+
DNE21+ IEA ETP 2050 29 IEA ETP2008 IEA ETP : 62 GtCO2 RITE DNE21+ (Oct. 2008) RITE RITE DNE21+ : Marginal cost = 0 $/tco2 46 GtCO2 Marginal cost [$/tco 2 ] 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 25 550ppm (31GtCO2; Reduction of 15 GtCO2 from Baseline) 86 450ppm (23GtCO2; Reduction of 23 GtCO2 from Baseline) 237 50 by 50 (13 GtCO2; Reduction of 33 GtCO2 from Baseline)