20 30 280 350 1995 Devereux, 1988: 270 282 Food Availability Decline: FAD Food Entitlement Decline: FED FAD FAD FED 2000, 2002 FAD FAD FAD FED FAD Lee, 2003 FED 1999 59
2000 2000, 2001 2002 FAD FAD FED FAO FAO WFP 1999 NGO 1998 1) 1. FAD FAD 1999 Lee, 2003 1994 1 99 8 68 8 FAD 94 97 98 93 1994 96 30% national coping strategies 60 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
1932 33 1959 61 famine in slow motion 2) FAD FAD FAD FAO 1996 96 93 78% 94 93 18% FAO 96 94 94 13 3 96 12 3 FAD 1998 UNDP FAD 1995 97 96 UNDP 1997 11 98 8 162 kg 444 g/ 31 kg 85 g/ 61
UNDP 85 g/ FAO 1 432 g/ 97 407 g/ 98 97 5 WFP 2. FED FED 1999 2000 2001 2002 FED 2001 1995 91 1999 1 1 94 500 g 430 440 g 2002 20 3) 2000 2002 62 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
FAD FED 1999 2001 2002 2001 1999 2 1999: 251 1996 12 97 8 1. 1990 2003: 108 109 2001: 258 4) 63
1994 98 800 1,100 5) FAO 1996 200 44 22.0% 97 214 68 31.8% 6) 2000 96 97 22.0% 31.8% 80 111 7) 2 5 8) 1990 300 350 2 1 3 4% 70 80 2002: 61 60% 70% 1999: 17 1997: 53 2. 1999 1998 1 64 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
1 1994 97 1994 260 (60.6%) 70 (16.3%) 16 (3.7%) 51 (11.9%) 18 (4.2%) 14 (3.3%) 429 (100%) 1995 122 (28.4%) 99 (23.1%) 60 (14.0%) 98 (22.8%) 29 (6.8%) 21 (4.9%) 429 (100%) 1996 42 (9.8%) 117 (27.4%) 67 (15.7%) 148 (34.7%) 31 (7.2%) 22 (5.2%) 427 (100%) 1997 24 (5.7%) 108 (25.8%) 54 (12.9%) 168 (40.2%) 36 (8.6%) 28 (6.7%) 418 (100%) Robinson, Lee, Hill and Burnham (1999). 2 % 1) 44.7 57.2 46.0 13.2 3.9 19.4 41.2 56.9 50.0 10.7 5.1 16.2 54.7 57.4 40.8 17.5 0.9 24.7 85.7 42.9 28.6 14.3 22.9 68.6 22.9 21.4 2.9 8.6 57.5 20.0 50.0 2.5 5.0 12.5 1,576 1) 1999: 26 27 1994 60.6% 95 97 5.7% 1995 97 96 97 9) 2 1,694 50.0% 2001 65
2 2003: 15 18 60 55 1. 20 30 350 2003 3 5% 60 100 1998 1 1996 12 97 8 95 1 1996 97 2001 1999 1 2,653 1999: 189 66 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
3 % 1,493 (56.3) 589 (22.2) 54 (2.0) 91 (3.4) 42 (1.6) 81 (3.1) % 10 (0.4) 20 (0.8) 23 (0.9) 115 (4.3) 135 (5.1) 0 (0) 2,653 1999: 9 10 4 % 519 (20) 71 (2.7) 336 (12.7) 13 (0.5) 95 (3.6) 807 (30.4) 27 (1.0) 785 (29.6) 1999: 9 10 3 4 20% 2. 1990 FAO 5 FAO 95 94 95 49% 96 65% 94 1995 96 10 11% FAO 10) 1994 97 94 95 95 73 96 51 97 83 98 104 99 89 2000 154 11) 1 1994 96 1 1994 97 1 67
5 1991 2000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 FAO a 746 718 754 615 311 212 235 365 306 235 b 1) 155 112 153 55 98 107 144 149 119 171 (7) (73) (51) (83) (104) (89) (154) a+b 901 830 907 670 409 319 379 514 425 406 315 309 318 333 344 339 343 326 332 327 1 427 412 418 433 442 430 432 407 411 403 a 443 427 388 412 345 370 349 389 422 359 b 1) 129 83 109 49 96 105 163 103 107 123 (32) (30) (84) (75) (92) (67) a+b 572 510 497 461 441 475 512 492 529 482 472 410 397 361 341 375 412 392 429 382 1 586 504 479 436 403 436 471 490 432 471 a, b, c 1 g/ 1) FAO FAO Statistical Database 2000 FAO 100 FAO 90 95 1995 97 36 64 1 FAO/ WFP FAO/WFP FAO/WFP 2 1995 98 1 96 1996 97 1 250 270 g/ 3. 1 2002 1996 12 FAO/WFP 68 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
2 1) 1 1 2) FAO/WFP 1996 5 270 g 97 5 250 g 98 3 200 g 99 7 246 g 2000 6 210 g 95 96 250 g 97 370 g 98 400 g 99 500 g 2000 575 g FAO 1 5 FAO/WFP 95 97 2000: 78 79 12) UNDP 1997 11 98 10 69
6 1992 2000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1) 100 168 670 1,005 1,206 838 516 429 315 2) 100 60 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 3) 100 36 8 6 5 7 11 13 18 1) 1992 1 kg 15 93 25 94 100 95 150 96 180 97 125 98 77 99 64 2000 47 2) 1992 110 93 92 60% 94 4 60 3) 1 1997: 45 46 2001 14 94 95 1994 95 2002 94 2003 1995 97 430 442 g/ FAO 403 471 g/ 1 1 458 g 1 1947 58 1 2000: 7 8 2000 6 1993 70 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
92 100 96 5 96 97 97 90 110 1 kg 2000: 22 10 20 100 2000: 347 2000 2000: 109 1994 4 40 60 2000: 59 1994 98 20 30% 1990 98 9 2002 7 1 1994 2001 95 200 2000: 43 94 2002 7 1 71
9 1 2000: 148 160 13) 30% 2000: 59 8 3 8 3 1984 8 3 8 3 2000: 306, 318, 327 329 72 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
1990 FAD FAD FED 1) Goodkind and West 2001 Lee 2003 Woo-Cumings 2002 Robinson, Lee, Hill and Bumham 1999 NGO 1998 1999 1999 2003 Noland 2003 Smith and Huang 2000 FAD FED FAD FED 2) famine in slow motion WFP WFP 1996 97 2002: 272 3) 20 1930 33 1958 62 1984 85 1975 2002: 105 4) 1998 10 24 5) 1996 2000: 385 2001, 257 2000: 92 6) 1997 2 3 98 3 2 FAO 2000: 188 7) Smith and Huang 2000 73
8) 5 2001: 30 2 2000: 385 9) 10) FAO USDA USDA 1980 90 FAO 90 FAO 90 95 FAO 2001 Smith 1997 Noland 2003 2001 USDA 2002 11) FAO Statistical Database 2003 Eberstadt 2001 2000 12) 2003 10 13) 2000: 167 168 2003 21 The End of North Korea, American Enterprise Institute, 1999 2001 1999 2001 51 5 2000 1985 1999 31 2000 No. 146 1992 2002 The Great North Korean Famine, US Institute for peace, Washington, 2001 2000 2000 49 4 50 1 2001 90 Devereux, Stephen (1988), Entitlements, Availability and Famine: A Revisionist View of Wollo, 1972 74, FOOD POLICY, August, pp. 270 282. Eberstadt, Nicholas (2001), Development, Structure and Performance of the DPRK Economy: Empirical Hints, In: Chang-Ho Yoon and Lowrence J. Lau (ed.), North Korea in Transition, Edward Elgar. Goodkind, Daniel and West, Lorane (2001), The North Korean Famine and its Demographic Impact, Population and Development Review, 27(2): pp. 219 238. Lee, Suk (2003), Food Shortages and Economic Institutions in the Democratic People s Republic of Korea, Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Warwick, Coventry: UK. Noland, Marcus (2003), Famine and Reform in North Korea, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC. Robinson, W. Courtland, M. K. Lee, Hill, Kenneth and Burnham, Gilbert M. (1999), Mortality in North Korean Migrant Households: A Restrospective Study, The LANCET, Vol. 354. Sen, Amartya (1981), Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation, Oxford University Press 2000 (1999), Development as Freedom, Alfred A. Knopf, New York 2002 Smith, Heather (1997), The North Korean Economy: Collapse, Stasis or Reform?, The Brookings Institute, Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics No. 133. Smith, Heather and Huang, Yiping (2000), Achieving Food Security in North Korea, Paper presented At 74 Vol. 51, No. 1, January 2005
the Conference LNCV-Korean Peninsula: Enhancing Stability and International Dialogue, 1 2 June, Rome: Italy. Woo-Cumings, Meredith (2002), The Political Ecology of Famine: The North Korean Catastrophe and Its Lessons, Asian Development Bank Institute, Research Paper Series No. 31. 1998 10 24 2003 1 1997 1999 2 2 1999 2000 1998 3 1 1999 1999 2002 3 4 1999 KDI 1 2000 1998 1999 2000 2003 10 1999 2000 KDI 3 2000 E-mail: jkm816@hotmail.com 75