Asia International Grid Connection SG - Interim Report The State of the Interconnectors in Europe Since 1910s 1915 Denmark-Sweden Interconnection 1920 Interconnection between France, Switzerland and Italia. After WWⅡ 1951 UCPTE among 8 countries. (West-Germany, France, Italy and others) 1963 NORDEL in Northern Europe UFIPTE by France, Spain and Portugal Currently The region is divided into four synchronous grids, Continental Europe, Nordic, UK, and Baltic, and they are connected asynchronously through direct current transmission, so that electricity trade can be conducted among them. Figure 5 Power flows between countries in Europe (2015) Source: ENTSO-e, Statistical Factsheet 2015 1
Asia International Grid Connection SG - Interim Report International power grid in Asia in the GEI vision Source: Official website of the international non-profit organization Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO) 2
Asia International Grid Connection SG - Interim Report Korea Electric Power Corporation Northeast Asia Interconnection Vision Source: Hwan-Eik Cho, President of Korea Electric Power Corporation, lecture document September 9, 2016)
What is going to happen? - Further acceleration of VRE Historical world power generation mix NEO2018 power generation mix 100% Other 90% Hydro Solar 80% 70% Nuclear Wind 60% Oil 50% Gas 40% 30% 20% Coal 10% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 48% solar + Wind 64% Renewables 29% fossil fuel source: Bloomberg(2018), NEO
Japan s status: Utilities energy mix Utilities Electricity Demand and Generation FY2010-FY2016-14% vs FY2011-20% vs FY2011 RE Hydro Nuclear Fossil (incld. other) Demand Total Generation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FY!5 Source: The Ways Forward for Japan EPCOs in the New Energy Paradigm, Romain Zisslar, Renewable Energy Institute (2017)
Japan: Renewables expansion Japan Change in Electricity Generation 2010-2017 100 80 58 TWh 50 0 30-8 2 9 3-50 -46-100 -150-136 -200!6-250 -300-263 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Bio & Geo Other Total Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, REI
Japan: Renewables cost declining Japan LCOE- Solar PV Japan & Onshore LCOE - Solar Wind PV vs & Fossils Onshore 2015-2018 Wind VS. Fossils 2015-2018 400 400 350 350 7 $/MWh - nominal 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 best performance PV is reaching almost the bottom of fossil 0 2015 - h1 2016 - h1 2017 - h1 2018 - h1 Notes: Notes: Fossil Fossil fuel range fuel range does does not include not include oil, and oil, and Operational Operational durations; durations; Solar PV Solar 25 PV yrs, 25 wind years, onshore wind 20 onshore yrs, CCGT 20 years, 25 yrs, CCGT and coal 25 years, 35 yrsand coal 35 years Source: BNEF, Levelized Cost of Electricity 300 250 200 150 100 50 Fossil fuel Fuel range Exclude Oil-Fired Onshore wind range Wind (Onshore) range Solar PV range PV and range Coal mid Coal (Average) GCC (Average) CCGT mid Solar PV/Wind mid Wind (Onshore) and PV (Average) Source: BNEF, Levelized Cost of Electricity, Renewable Energy Institute
Comparison of LCOE of different energy sources Unsubsidized LCOE 2018 - H1 Solar PV and onshore wind cost competitive in many countries 300 300 250 250 Fossil fuel range Nuclear range 200 200 Solar PV range Onshore wind range $/MWh 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 China India JAPAN Germany UK Brazil Chile US. 0 Source: BNEF Asia Europe Americas!8 Source: BNEF, Levelized Cost of Electricity, Renewable Energy Institute
Japan: PV covers 76% of demand in Kyushu GW 18 Kyushu Electric Power Co.service area: Area demand and solar PV output on 23 April 2017 16 14 12 10 76% of the electricity demand was covered by solar PV 8 6 4 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24!9 source: REI, https://renewable-ei.org/en/activities/column/20170704.html Time of day Solar covered 76% of a demand in Kyushu at its peak generation, July 2017 Keiji Kimura & Tatsuya Wakeyama, Senior Researcher, Renewable Energy Institute
Japan: Strategic Energy Plan 2018 Japan s electricity mix in 2030: gas 27%, coal 26%, oil 3%, nuclear 20-22%, renewables 22-24% GHGs emission reduction : 26% by 2030 from 2013 level = 18% reduction from 1990 level electricity demand will sharply increase - then will be reduced with energy saving measures electricity demand ES/EE 196TWh 17% total power generation incl. energy efficiency 1,278TWh ES/EE 17% RE 19-20% 2030 total power generation 1,065TWh geo 1-1.1% biomass 3.7-4.6% RE 22-24% wind 1.7% PV 7.0% hydro 8.8-9.2% electricity increases electricity nuclear 17-18% nuclear 20-22% demand 966.6TWh demand 980.8TWh LNG 22% LNG 27% coal 22% coal 26%!10 2013 2030 oil 2% oil 3% source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, 28 April 2015
Japan: Strategic Energy Plan 2018 on interconnectors!12
Another opportunity: Asia Super Grid Asia Super Grid Japan Super Grid!13