1998 11 3558
1 21 2 1 Paul D. Wolfowitz, Clinton s First Year, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 15 (January/February, 1994). 2 91 36
3 91 G-7 G-7 4 G-7 5 (primacy) 6 1949 1950 1962 10 71 89 11 91 12 3 James Baker, America in Asia: Emerging Architecture for a Pacific Community, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 70, No. 5 (Winter 1991/92). 4 John G. Ikenderry, Slavaging the G7, Foreign Affairs,Vol.72, No.2 (Spring 1993). 5 1992 206217 6 Barry R. Posen and Andrew L. Ross, Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy, International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Winter 1996/97), pp. 5-53. 37
APECNATO 7 8 (primacy) 9 10 7 Robert Gilpen, The Politica l Economy o f International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987). 8 Robert Keohane, A ft er Hegemony: Cooperat i on and D i scord in the Wor l d Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984). 9 1989 80 10 Johan Galtung, A Structural Theory of Imperialism, Journal of Peace Research, No. 8 (1971). 38
11 12 i 11 George Liska, Imper al America: The International Politics of Primacy (Washington, D.C.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1967). 12 1991 101111 39
(It s the economy, stupid) 93 NSC NEC NEC USTR 2,000 1,000 85 12 4,000 2,000 1,500 1,400 40
13 MIT 92 12 10 24 301 OMB NEC USTR CEA 7080 50 200 13 45 1997 1 41
92 232 95 80 6.7 91 22.1 90 80 94 (APEC) 93 APEC 85 89 94 APEC 74 301 84 85 301 301 301 42
APEC APEC 14 (BUR) (EASR) BUR 14 U.S.-Japan Study Group of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Rethinking Japan Policy (New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1993). 43
NATO 93 15 93 BUR 16 BUR (2MRCs) 17 99 BUR 171 146 10 11 20 BUR 10 (EASI) 18 15 U.S. Department of Defense, Defense Strategy for the 1990 s: The Regional Defense Strategy (Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, January 1993). 16 U.S. Department of Defense, Force Structure Excerpts, Bottom - Up Review (Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, September 1993). 17 New York Times, May 30, 1993. 18 U.S. Department of Defense, A s t rateg i c Framework for the As i an Pacific Rim: Report to 44
93 EASI 19 BUR 94 20 Congress (Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, April 1990). 19 Bill Clinton, Building a New Pacific Community: Address to students and faculty of Waseda University, Tokyo, July 7, 1993, U.S. Department of States, Dispatch, Vol. 4, No. 28 (July 2, 1993), pp. 485-488. 20 Winston Lord, Statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, March 31, 1993, U.S. Department of State, Dispatch Vol. 4, No. 14 (April 5, 1993), pp. 216-221. 45
APEC APEC ASEAN (ARF) (EAEC) 26 94 (MFN) 89 MFN MFN 93 11 24 94 10 2003 1,000 (NPT) (IAEA) 46
94 ASEAN ASEAN APEC 94 11 93 11 APEC 94 11 (WTO) 96 (AFL-CIO) 301 WTO 47
(EASR) 21 EASR 95 EASR EASR 10 (linchpin) EASR engagement enlargement ASEAN (ARF) (TMD) BUR EASR 96 21 U.S. Department of Defense, United States Security Strategy for the Eas t Asia-Pacifi c Region (Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, February 1995). 48
96 96 96 96 11 5,480 970 10 ABC 50 30 49
96 11 21 94 28 8.3 28 96 (CTBT) 21 85 1946 50 50
10 96 20 96 ASEAN B-2 95 51
93 NSC 70 79 10 97 USTR USTR 12 52
96 1964 15 89 94 130 QDR 97 (QDR) 22 QDR 2015 (2MRCs) 10 BUR QDR 2015 (WMD) 2015 (shape) (respond) (prepare) WMD (SSC) (MTW) RMA BUR MRCs 22 U.S. Department of Defense, Repor t of the Quadrennial Defense Review (Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, May 1997). 53
85 87 38 33 89 136 36 83 29 64 42 136 5,000 8,000 1,800 6,900 F-22 438 339 FA-18E/F 1,000 785 (TMD) 2006 (NMD) 20 RMA 36 NMD MRCs BUR QDR 97 QDR TMD TMD 96 92 600 220 23 23 The Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President (Washington D.C.: The Council of Economic Advisers, February 1997). 54
97 G-7 GDP 2.5 99 1,300 0.5 NTTKDD NTT OB 97 55
97 98 ASEAN 80 ASEAN 90 24 98 98 27 98 24 Paul Krugman, The Myth of the Asia s Miracle, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 6 (November/December 1994). 56
IMF 99 98 10 99 3,800 99 3.9 30 95 10 1,000 2010 2030 97 33 98 57
(primacy) 25 (Security Primacy) (Economic Primacy) BUR QDR EASR 98 70 80 25 Zbigniew Brzinski, The Grand Chessboard (New York: Harper Collins Publishers, Inc., Basic Books, 1997). 58