* 2000 7 26
1 1 1 [2000] 1 2 1 2 2
1 B to C 250000 億円 200000 日本米国 213,200 150000 100000 50000 0 153,600 106,900 71,100 66,620 42,700 43,860 22,500 26,940 15,340 645 3,360 7,730 1998 年 1999 年 2000 年 2001 年 2002 年 2003 年 2004 年 1 1$=120 B to C 3.5 3 % 3.2 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2.3 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.11 0.5 0.02 0.4 0.3 1998 年 1999 年 2000 年 2001 年 2002 年 2003 年 2004 年 2 B to C 3
2 B to B 180 160 140 120 兆円 日本米国 117 165 100 80 79 68 60 40 20 20 9 12 30 19 50 29 45 0 1998 年 1999 年 2000 年 2001 年 2002 年 2003 年 1 1$=120 B to B 25 % 20 19.1 15 米国 13.8 10 9.6 11.2 5 0 7.4 2.5 3.7 6.1 5 日本 3.3 1.5 2.2 1998 年 1999 年 2000 年 2001 年 2002 年 2003 年 2 B to B 1 4
DVD L50 12 5 42 530 1,000 42 [2000] Brynjolfsson and Smith [1999] 1998 99 CD 16% 9% CD 13% 6 5
1 1 6
1 1 Bailey [1998] Brynjolfsson and Smith [1999] 1 Brynjolfsson and Smith [1999] 1 3 4 3 35 5 4 CD 1 1 1 Okun [1981] Okun Okun intertemporal comparison shopping Okun [1989] 7
3 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) Brynjolfsson and Smith [1999] 4 CD 1 Brynjolfsson and Smith [1999] 8
10 1 100 1 80 90 1 90 1990 9
TFP TFP 2 1880 1913 29 TFP 30 40 David [1990] 1980 90 30 TFP 19 [1997] Nordhaus [1997] 2 1 TFP 10
1 1 1827 1990 100 1 8 150 800 CPI 1.2% 1959 95 10% 70% TFP 0.6% 1.8% TFP 19 (1) (2) (3) (4) TFP TFP Gordon [1999] 5 11
FRB 3 Oliner and Sichel [2000] 1994 Oliner and Sichel [1994] 2000 1990 1991 95 1995 99 1% 3 2 2000 2 CEA 5 95 1.47% 5 12
IT 0.47% TFP 0.23% TFP 0.7% 6 6 1 2 TFP 1995 2000 6 13 1995 2 13
TFP GDP TFP GDP GDP TFP GDP TFP TFP TFP 14
1980 80 70 Orphanides FRB Orphanides [2000] 1970 1960 70 Fed 1970 Fed 15
1 2 MMF GDP 7 10 1970 G10 aggregate 1970 97 60% 7 2 8 GDP 1970 9 10 [1999] 16
7 8 17
9 10 18
Poole [1970] GDP Friedman [1999] GDP 3 19
Dollarization currency substitution Dollarization FRB FRB MMF 20
1 11 1 1 11 1990 1996 1998 1 7.8 5.5 4.7 1 10 14.8 14.0 13.2 10 100 18.5 13.6 13.8 100 1,000 50.4 37.0 35.1 1,000 8.5 29.9 33.2 Mishkin and Strahan [1999], Call Reports. 21
22
1 23
2 2 [2000] 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 24
1999 2 1999 2 4 1999 4 2 2 25
1999 4 1 1 7 1 1999 1999 Y2K Y2K Y2K 1 3 6 1 26
1 1 1 12 2000 5 18 3 0.037% 1 0.165% 27
12 (%) 2.5 2.0 コール (O/N) TB(3ヶ月 ) JGB(1 年 ) JGB(2 年 ) JGB(5 年 ) JGB(10 年 ) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 1998 年 1999 年 Bloomberg 28
1 1999 9 9 G7 1999 9 21 1999 2000 29
2 30
1999 3 2 1999 2 35 20 Y2K 24.4 6 31
13 ( 兆円 ) 140 13 120 100 その他当預 超過準備 所要準備 80 60 40 20 0 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 1997 年 1998 年 1999 年 1 32
ECB 4 Padoa-Schioppa [1996] Padoa-Schioppa 33
2 1 2 34
14 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 2.5 54.8 60.2 66.9 75.6 87.1 103.3 3.0 28.1 30.8 34.2 38.5 44.3 52.4 3.5 19.2 21.0 23.3 26.2 30.0 35.4 4.0 14.8 16.1 17.8 20.0 22.9 27.0 4.5 12.1 13.2 14.6 16.3 18.6 21.9 5.0 10.4 11.3 12.4 13.8 15.8 18.5 5.5 9.1 9.9 10.8 12.1 13.7 16.1 6.0 8.2 8.8 9.7 10.7 12.2 14.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 3.0 5.1 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.3 2.7 3.5 7.5 6.8 6.2 5.5 4.8 4.1 4.0 9.7 8.9 8.1 7.2 6.3 5.3 4.5 11.9 10.9 9.9 8.8 7.7 6.6 5.0 13.9 12.8 11.6 10.4 9.1 7.8 5.5 15.8 14.6 13.3 11.9 10.5 9.0 6.0 17.7 16.3 14.9 13.4 11.8 10.1 2% 10 9 8 7 6 5 2.5 95.6 96.0 96.4 96.8 97.2 97.7 3.0 91.5 92.2 93.0 93.8 94.6 95.4 3.5 87.5 88.6 89.7 90.8 92.0 93.2 4.0 83.8 85.1 86.5 88.0 89.5 91.1 4.5 80.2 81.8 83.5 85.3 87.1 89.0 5.0 76.8 78.7 80.6 82.6 84.8 87.0 5.5 73.6 75.7 77.8 80.1 82.5 85.1 6.0 70.6 72.8 75.2 77.7 80.3 83.2 [2000] 35
[2000] 36
15 GDP 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 15 米国日本ドイツ -10 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 OECD, Economic Outlook 1. 1999 2. 1990 1991 GDP 3 2 37
2 1 38
1979 10 80 2 80 39
17 IMES Discussion Paper, forthcoming 2000 1980 IMES Discussion Paper Series No. 2000-J-11 2000 IMES Discussion Paper No. 2000-J-10 2000 16 4 1997 13 IMES Discussion Paper No.2000-J-13 2000 1989 12 1999 40
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Padoa-Schioppa, T., Styles of Monetary Management, Monetary and Economic Studies 14 (1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1996, pp. 40-64. Poole, W., Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84, May 1970. 42