資産価格バブルと金融政策：1980年代後半の日本の経験とその教訓

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みいかごちょう
5 years ago
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1 foreward-looking

2 Cargill, Hutchison, and Ito

7 GDP GDP

9 GDP

12 Morgan Stanley Capital Internationalhttp:// MSCI/World Morgan Stanley Capital International Borio et al. G GDP GDP Borio et al.bis FDIC GDP GDP

13 BIS GDP BIS GDP GDP

15 GNP GNP GDP GDP

18 GDPGDP

20 TOPIX

22 Tier BISBIS economic capital BIS Tier

24 BIS BIS

25 Shigemi

27 Kanoh and Murase

33 CD

34 CD

37 CP

40 Bernanke and Gertler Bernanke and Gertler Bernanke and Gertler

41 I don t see how a central bank can increase interest to 8 or 10% when we don t have inflation at all. Yamaguchi Kent and Lowe

43 a

44 b

45 X-12-ARIMA ARIMA

46 NIES c Higo

47 Friedman a

48 a Taylor Frankel and Rockett

49 Feldstein Volcker The success of all our efforts is dependent in substantial part on complementary policies by other countries --- their success in enhancing their growth and stability, in opening markets to others, and in helping to deal with points of strain in the international financial fabric. around current levels

50 GDP Consolidated Version of the Treaty Establishing the European Community FRB Ueda

51 O/N

52 NTT b GDP

53 OECD, Economic Outlook

54 misguided pricesdynamic resource misallocation IMFAnnual Report Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist

55 forward-looking

56 Brainard Stock FRB Greenspan

57 Shiratsuka Nakamura and Shiratsuka

58 Kindleberger1995 cookbook rules of the game Kindleberger When speculation threatens substantial rises in asset prices, with a possible collapse in asset markets later, and harm to the financial system, or if domestic conditions call for one sort of policy, and international goals another, monetary authorities confront a dilemma calling for judgment, not cookbook rules of the game. It is, I believe, realistic.

60 TBSEzra F. Vogel, Japan as Number One, Harvard University Press, a b a

61 Alan S. Blinder, Central Banking in Theory and Practice, MIT Press, Paul Volcker, and Toyoo Gyoten, Changing Fortune, Times Books, Bank for International Settlements, 63rd Annual Report, 1993., Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments, August Bernanke, Ben, and Mark Gertler, Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Fourth Quarter, 1999, pp ,, and Simon Gilchrist, The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality, Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (1), 1996, pp Borio, C. E. V., N. Kennedy, and S. D. Prowse, Exploring Aggregate Asset Price Fluctuations Across Countries: Measurement, Determinants and Monetary Policy Implications, BIS Economic Papers, No. 40, Brainard, William, Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Policy, American Economic Review, 57 (2), 1967, pp Cargill, Thomas F., Michael M. Hutchison, and Takatoshi Ito, The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy, MIT Press, Feldstein, Martin, Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Thinking About International Economic Coordination, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2 (2), 1988, pp Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Katharine E. Rockett, International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model, American Economic Review, 78 (3), 1988, pp Friedman, Benjamin M., The Rise and Fall of Money Growth Targets as Guidelines for US Monetary Policy, Iwao Kuroda, ed., Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, London: Macmillan Press, 1997, pp Greenspan, Alan, Opening Remarks, in Achieving Price Stability: A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Higo, Masahiro, What Can Inflation Expectations and Core Inflation Tell Us about Monetary Policy in Japan?, IMES Discussion Paper, No. 99-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Hoshi, Takeo, What Happened to Japanese Banks?, IMES Discussion Paper, No E-7, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2000.

62 , and Anil Kashyap, The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?, NBER Working Paper No. 7250, Kanoh, Satoru, and Hideaki Murase, On Land Price Formation: Bubble versus Option, Japanese Economic Review, 50 (2), 1999, pp Kent, Christopher, and Philip Lowe, Asset-Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy, Research Discussion Paper, No. 9709, Reserve Bank of Australia, Kindleberger, Charles P., Asset Inflation and Monetary Policy, BNL Quarterly Review no. 192, 1995, pp Nakamura, Hisashi, and Shigenori Shiratsuka, Extracting Market Expectations form Option Prices: Case Studies in Japanese Option Markets, BOJ Monetary and Economic Studies, 17 (1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1999, pp Shigemi, Yosuke, Asset Inflation in Selected Countries, BOJ Monetary and Economic Studies, 13 (2), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1995, pp Shiller, Robert, Irrational Exuberance, Princeton University Press, Shiratsuka, Shigenori, Asset Price Fluctuation and Price Indices, IMES Discussion Paper, No. 99-E- 21, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Stock, James H., Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy: Indicators, Rules, and the Shift Toward Intangible Output, IMES Discussion Paper, No. 99-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Ueda, Kazuo, The Japanese Current Account Surplus and Fiscal Policy in Japan and the U. S., J. Shoven ed., Government Policy Towards Industry in the United States and Japan, Cambridge University Press, 1988, pp Taylor, John B., Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy, New York: Norton, Volcker, Paul A., Statements to Congress, Federal Reserve Bulletin, Federal Reserve Board, April Yamaguchi, Yutaka, Asset Price and Monetary Policy: Japan s Experience, remarks presented at the conference on New Challenges for Monetary Policy, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1999.

資産価格と物価：バブル生成から崩壊にかけての経験を踏まえて

資産価格と物価：バブル生成から崩壊にかけての経験を踏まえて E-mail: shigenori.shiratsuka@boj.or.jp CPIWPIGDP GDP FRBAchieving Price Stability Greenspan CPIWPI WPIWPI Alchian and Klein1973intertemporal cost of living index ICLI ICLI DEPI: dynamic equilibrium price