LCC LCC INOUE, Gaku TANSEI, Kiyoteru KIDO, Motohiro IMAMURA, Takahiro 1 23 LCC 7 LCC Ryanair 1 Ryanair Number of Passengers 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1985 1987 199 1993 1996 1998 Barrett 1 1987 2 Ryanair Hess and Adler 2 Stated Choice Surveys Willingness to pay LCC LCC LCC LCC 3 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer
3 25 5 6 7 Takebayashi 8 Tuba 9 TubaEU-ETS 18 Tuba Tuba EU-ETS 1 LCC 11 5 Takebayashi 8 Barbot LCC Fu et al. 13 19924 LCC Pels 1 Murakami 15 1998 DB1ALCC LCC Murakami LCC 2 LCC LCC 1 LCC LCC 2 2.1 1 2 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer 31
XA XB YA 2.2 ij kx ij, k 1 2 Pr k k OD ij ij R i j ij U r k k kod JAL ANA U r k 3.2 1 2kx ij, k 2.3 Bertrand Model a a 3 L aal Paal l xaal l C x l a aal 3 Pa l MC aal l C x l a a3.3 2.4 Nash Equilibrium al 5 S P a l P a a l P a l a a 32 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer
3 1 2 OD 3.1 OD OD 6 7 3 227 OD 347 3 18 3 25 3 37 3: 1: 9: 1: 14: 11: 13: 16: 12: 15: 2: 17: 21: 22: 23: 27: 18: 28: 26: 24: 4: 29: 3: 31: 32: 34: 25: 37: 35: 33: 38: 42: 36: 41: 39: 43: 44: 4: 7: 6: 8: 2: 5: 194546 47 47OD 3.2 U r k U r k 6 s 1 s 2 s 3 ln s 4 s 5 3.2.6s 6 1s 7 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Parameter 1.18E 2 5.87E 5 5.8E 1 5.5E 4 8.55E 1 3.37E 6.6E 1 No. of Sample Hit Ratio Likelihood Ratio 3.2.1 t-value 17.5 2.9 9.8 4.7 22.4 18.5 8. 5,.7286.275 4 25 223 223 27 3 2 223OD 115OD 1 5, 3.2.2 25 1 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer 33
223OD OD 3.2.3 25 1 16 17 3.2.4 25 1 3.2.5 51 3.2.6 3 V rail V bus V auto ACC 45 7.17.5 7.1 7.2 7.3 7. 7.5 V public q 1 q 2 r 1 r 2 r 3 3 1 4 V rail V bus 3 1 4 3 2 ACC 6 s 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 2.16E 1 1.78E 2 2.72E 4 6.74E 1 5.48E 2 7.47E 4 1.9E 1 1.12E t 5.5 6.4 2.3 4.2 15.4 7.4 2.6 17.9 1.54E 1 1.11E 2 1.9E 4 4.45E 1 6.12E 2 9.64E 4 1.2E 1.71E t 6.1 4. 2.5 3.3 12.7 8.8 9.9 14. 34 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer
2km16 /km 7.2V rail ACC Freq k k Seat k k25 LF k k25 3.2.7 25 1 3.3 4MC a8 l Brander and Zhang 18 cpm/ a JAL ANA RPK 19 11 / 9 / 9 6 1 8 9 DIS k k25 4 LCC 4.1 4.1.1 OD 25 OD 4 25 25 1 OD ij 4.1.2 6OD OD 3.2.1 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer 35
1 2 1Pˆr k 3.2 2 3.2 1 k LCC k LCC 6 4.1.3 3.2 223OD3.1 47OD 1 47OD OD 27 25 27 47OD 3.2 47OD 47OD 3 3.2 223OD 25 47OD 4.1.4 6 4.1.14.1.3 3.3 3.24.1.2 k ab 62 5 4.1.5 4.1.14.1.3 3.3 3.24.1.2 k P a l Freq k x al 121 Freq k 9 No Freq k Freq k Yes P a l 3 No a max a Yes Yes a n a n 1 b n b n 1 P b l Freq k x bl 121 Freq k 9 No Freq k Freq k Yes P b l 3 No b max b 36 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer
Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer 37 LCC 2 19 LCC 5.7 / LCC 3 A B C 4.2 1 7 9 IIA 3.2.1 3.2.3 16 17 1 12 3, / A B A B A B C A A B C A B A B A B A B B 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. A B A B A B LCC A A B C A B A LCC A B A LCC B 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 5.5 11. 11. 11. 9. 11. 11. 11. 5.5 11. 11. 11. 5.5 11. 1 2 1 1 9 9 83 83 75 75 2 6 8 1 1 9 83 75 2 8 8 79 79 3 3 7 7 2 7 7 13 13 4 4 2 6 8 1 8 79 3 7 7 13 4 16 16 1 1 6 6 83 83 66 66 16 1 6 83 66 2 6 8 1
3, 4, / 2, 15, 1, 5, A B A B A B C A / 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, A B C A B A B / 2, 15, 1, 5, A B A B B 4.3 4.3.1 LCC 134 1 LCC LCC LCC Case18 C LCC 9.5.5 Case / 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 / 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, / 2, 15, 1, 5, A B A B A B LCC A A B A B A B LCC A 38 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer
Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer 39 LCC24, 14,43 LCC Case 1.41.2 5.94.9 LCC 4.3.2 14 4 B LCC4.113 44 A 1 A B A B A B C/LCC A A B C A B A B/LCC A B A B/LCC B / / / 213 162 3,589 3,91 764 638 211 153 56,611 4,684 4,431 1,829 524 214 9 113 1,691 496 714 22 38 64 7,73 212 161 3,581 3,92 762 637 293 152 56,549 4,57 4,357 1,744 511 211 87 444 1,651 472 734 192 521 65 7,52 1. 1. 12.7 11.6 4.4 4.4 2.7 2.1 19.5 16.3 9.1 5.2 2..7 1.5 3.6 4.8 1.6 3.4 1.4 1. 1. 12.7 11.5 4.4 4.4 3.7 2.1 19. 16. 8.7 5. 2..6 5.7 3.4 4.9 1.6 5.8 1.4 14,822 14,82 13,997 13,995 15,81 15,799 13,314 15,317 14,436 23,819 22,969 17,753 22,96 23,948 24,545 23,695 22,32 14,681 15,51 14,46 15,226 16,43 16,177 14,818 14,816 13,993 13,991 15,797 15,795 1,959 15,313 14,436 23,589 22,683 17,685 22,676 23,662 24,315 13,516 22,32 14,588 14,845 14,313 11,16 15,747 16,177 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, 4,5 5, A B C A B A LCC / 1, 2, / 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, A B C A B A LCC /
4.3.3 15 4 B LCC1.738 521 LCC 21 B LCC 4.3.4 LCCLCC 5 LCC 3 ALCC LCC A 12, / 2 2 6 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1, A B A LCC B / 5, 1, / 5, 1, 15, 2, A B A LCC B / A B A B A B C/LCC A A B C A B A B/LCC A B A B/LCC B i 2 2 ii k 1 11,17 1,998 1,192 1,173 11,996 11,977 9,713 11,512 18,12 17,36 13,425 17,189 18,285 18,828 18,32 1,817 11,52 1,542 11,227 12,44 11,7 1,988 1,182 1,163 11,986 11,967 7,366 11,52 17,845 17,64 13,372 16,932 18,43 18,571 9,96 1,633 1,838 1,358 7,523 11,74 AB 1 1 1 1 1 1 2,347 1 256 242 53 256 242 256 8,127 184 665 184 3,75 665 19,996 14,352 19,171 13,527 2,975 15,331 11,848 2,491 21,72 2,718 16,837 2,159 21,697 21,798 16,37 14,684 17,455 14,49 11,775 18,357 2,263 14,395 19,438 13,57 21,242 15,374 13,997 2,758 22,166 23,313 16,991 21,253 24,292 22,892 24,39 15,44 19,318 14,769 19,43 2,22 AB 268 43 268 43 268 43 2,148 268 1,95 2,595 154 1,95 2,595 1,95 7,669 361 1,863 361 7,268 1,863 A B C LCC 221,362,99 28,17,962 33,71,141 463,9,22 214,914,74 194,537,91 29,12,236 19,134,278 457,597,679 Difference 6,448,25 13,48,871 4,697,95 19,134,278 5,492,524
1 k k 1 2,6 7,3 121 U r k 1 k OD LCC OD OD 5 IIA LCC OD 6 1 LCC 5 1 Barrett, S. eds.29deregulation and the Airline Business in Europe - Selected Readings, Routledge. Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer 41
2 Hess, S. and Adler, T. 211An Analysis of Trends in Air Travel Behaviour Using Four Related SP Datasets Collected between 2 and 25Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 17, pp. 244-248. 327 II1 http://www.ysk.nilim.go.jp/kakubu/kukou/keikaku/juyou1.html 212/7/18 425 Vol. 22 pp. 69-616 5273 Vol. 2pp. 427-435 627 Vol. 2pp. 413-42 729 No. 38 8 Takebayashi, M. 211The Runway Capacity Constraint and Airline s Behavior: Choice of Aircraft Size and Network DesignTransportation Research Part E, Vol. 47, pp. 39-4. 9 Tuba, T. 21How Do Sustained Changes in Cost of Airlines Influence Air Traffic onlinehttp://www.eurocontrol.int/eec/gallery/content/public/ document/eec/report/21/account 2Paper-TT2991.pdf 128 19 11211LCC Vol. 43 CD-ROM Barbot, C. 28Can Low Cost Carriers Deter or Accommodate Entry? Transportation Research Part E, Vol. 44, pp. 883-893. 13 Fu, X. et al. 211Effects of Transport Service Differentiation in the US Domestic Airline MarketTransportation Research Part E, Vol. 47, pp. 297-35. 1Pels, E. 29Network Competition in the Open Aviation AreaJournal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 15, pp. 83-89. 15 Murakami, H. 211Time Effect of Low-Cost Carrier Entry and Social Welfare in US Large Air MarketsTransportation Research Part E, Vol. 47, pp. 36-314. 1621 No. 6 17211 Vol. 4CD-ROM 18 Brander, J. A. and Zhang, A. 1993Dynamic Oligopoly Behaviour in the Airline IndustryInternational Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol. 11, pp. 47-435. 19211 An Analysis on the Impact of LCC Entry into the Domestic Aviation Services in Japan By Gaku INOUE, Kiyoteru TANSEI, Motohiro KIDO and Takahiro IMAMURA This paper developed a method of simulating air transport demand changes when low cost carriers LCCs entry into the domestic aviation services based on Bertrand Nash Equilibrium. Consequently, we analyzed the changes in passenger demands, average flight fares and the number of flights on three major routes: capital region to Kansai area, capital region to North Kyushu area, and Kansai area to North Kyushu area. The changes are estimated to be significantly different among the routes. Key Words : low cost carriers(lcc), Bertrand-Nash Equilibrium, airport planning 42 Vol.16 No.2 213 Summer