地域貿易協定と多角的貿易自由化の補完可能性：経済学的考察と今後の課題
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1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-006
2 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-006 地域貿易協定と多角的貿易自由化の補完可能性 : 経済学的考察と今後の課題 椋寛 2006 年 2 月 要旨本稿では, 近年増加が著しい地域貿易協定 (RTA) による貿易自由化と多国間の無差別な貿易自由化 (= 多角的貿易自由化 ) の補完可能性について, 既存の研究を整理しつつ経済学的な視点から検証を行う. 次善の理論 が教えるように,RTA による貿易自由化は経済的な効率性を改善するための最適な手段でないばかりか, 世界経済の 意図せざる ブロック化を招き逆に効率性を著しく悪化させる可能性がある. しかし, 多国間交渉による自由化の機動性が失われがちな現状においては,RTA は各国の産業調整を推進したり, コミットメント効果により途上国の政策改革を促すことを通じて, 多角的貿易自由化の 需要 を事後的に高める役割がある. 特に, 重複 FTA による自由化の拡大は政治経済的な自由化反対圧力や多国間交渉との代替性の問題を解消するため, 大きな推進力となり得る.RTA の優位性を最大限活かすためには, 途上国との積極的な締結を重視するとともに, 原産地規則などの追加的費用をルールの整備等を通じて取り除いていく必要がある. 本稿の作成にあたっては, 小寺彰氏, 川瀬剛志氏をはじめとした 多角的貿易体制の現状と展望 プロジェクトのメンバー 及び吉冨勝所長, 浦田秀次郎氏 山下一仁氏をはじめとした RIETI におけるセミナー出席者から, 多数の有益なコメントをいただいた. 当然のことながら, 論文中の誤りは全て筆者の責任である. 学習院大学経済学部助教授. hiroshi.mukunoki@gakushuin.ac.jp.
3 1 (Free Trade Agreement, FTA) (Customs Union, CU) Regional Trade Agreement, RTA RTA RTA GATT/WTO ). RTA NAFTA (MERCOSUR), (EU), (EFTA), ASEAN ASEAN (AFTA) 2001 FTA JSEPA, EPA, 2005 ), 2005 FTA EPA, 2006 FTA RTA RTA 2 FTA EPA RTA WTO 3 4 RTA 1 FTA CU FTA (Economic Partnership Agreement, EPA) FTA CU (Preferential Trade Agreement, PTA) (Discriminatory Trade Agreement, DTA) WTO RTA RTA 2 Dynamic Time-Path Analysis of RTA) Bhagwati RTA Building Block Stumbling Block (Bhagwati, 1993) 3 FTA ( WTO FTA EPA/FTA 4 Frankel (1997) (2001) Schiff and Winters (2002) 2
4 RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA FTA RTA RTA 2 RTA RTA (second-best) RTA / RTA (The Theory of the Second- Best) RTA 3
5 RTA 5 RTA RTA RTA RTA (Piecemeal Policy Reform) 6 WTO RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA (i) (ii) RTA 3 RTA 3.1 RTA RTA RTA 5 Viner (1950) Meade (1955), Lipsey (1957) 6 Krishna and Panagariya (2000) 4
6 RTA RTA 7 RTA 8 RTA 9 RTA RTA RTA 10 RTA 11 RTA RTA (Krugman, 1991) GATT GATT/WTO RTA 7 RTA RTA 8 Mundell (1964) RTA 9 Winters and Chang (2000) EC, Chang and Winters (2002) MERCOSUR. 10 RTA 11 Kennan and Riezman (1990), Kose and Riezman (2000), Abrego et al. (2004) 5
7 RTA GATT24 RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA 12 RTA ` ` RTA RTA RTA RTA 12 Krugman (1993) Krugman (1991) 13 RTA Bond and Syropoulos (1996) Bagwell and Staiger (1999) 14 Ethier (2004) (Terms-of-Trade Puzzle) 6
8 3.2 RTA RTA 15 RTA RTA RTA RTA 1996 WTO (Limao, 2005) RTA 16 RTA Ethier (2004) (Terms-of-Trade Puzzle) 16 Grossman and Helpman (1995) Krishna (1998) 17 Kiyono (1993) Raff (2001) 7
9 3.3 RTA RTA 18 NAFTA EU RTA RTA (Freund and McLaren, 1999) (sunk cost) RTA RTA 19, RTA 20 McLaren (2002) RTA 18 EC 1986 Vineland Estate Wines 1989 FTA 1988 Freund and McLaren (1999) 19 Freund (2000a) 20 Freund (2000a) 8
10 (insidious regionalism) 3.4 FTA RTA FTA FTA FTA FTA Bhagwati FTA (spaghetti-bowl phenomenon) FTA 21 rules of origin FTA (i) (ii) (iii) FTA (hidden protection) Bhagwati and Panagariya (1996) 22 Krueger (1999) 9
11 JSEPA 1 ( 60%) EPA ( 50%) NAFTA 60 TV AFTA 40% * JSEPA 245 EPA 157 Herin (1986) EC EFTA FTA (Free on Board, FOB) FTA 23 FTA FTA NAFTA (compliance rate) 64% 23,,
12 24 FTA GATT RTA (substantially all trade) RTA RTA JSEPA EPA NAFTA 1 EU FTA 2 FTA 3 *1,, * *3 WTO 24 Anson et al. (2005) 84% 97% 20% 11
13 3.5 RTA RTA WTO RTA RTA WTO RTA 25 RTA RTA RTA WTO 26 RTA WTO 25 Freund (2000b) RTA RTA RTA 12
14 4 RTA 4.1 GATT/WTO 1999 WTO RTA (time-inconsistency) 27 RTA RTA, RTA WTO 27 Ethier (1998) Fernández and Portes (1998) 13
15 (i) (ii) (iii) RTA RTA RTA RTA WTO NAFTA NAFTA 1994 NAFTA 1982 EU 28 EU EU ( 2 ) EU 4.2 RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA (EEC) GATT FTA 14
16 FTA (EC) NAFTA (APEC) EC 29 EPA 30 RTA 3.1 RTA RTA RTA RTA CU FTA CU FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA NAFTA EU EFTA, (CACM) 43 FTA ( ) FTA EU MERCOSUR CU RTA EU FTA EU 29 WTO (1995) Bergsten (1997)
17 W H W I W F 1 FTA A,B A A,B,C W N A,B,C W S W O B,C C A-B FTA A-C FTA B-C FTA FTA FTA A A A A B C B C B C B C FTA 31 A,B,C FTA W N A B FTA W I C A,B W O A,B C CU C (W O W F ) A,B (W I W F ) 32 FTA A C FTA A (W I W H ) B,C 31 Mukunoki and Tachi (2005) 32 APEC 16
18 A C (W O W S ) A FTA B,C FTA FTA FTA 33 FTA RTA CU FTA prisoner s delight) (Garnaut, 1994) CU FTA FTA FTA FTA 3.5 FTA 3.4 FTA RTA 33 Mukunoki and Tachi (2005) 34 Mukunoki and Tachi (2005) FTA 17
19 35 RTA RTA RTA 36 JSEPA FTA EPA 37 EPA 38 RTA RTA Richardson (1993) Mukunoki (2005) Gawande et al. (2001) 18
20 4.4 RTA 150 WTO RTA CU EU (CACM) CARICOM RTA CU CU (free-rider problem) 39 RTA RTA JSEPA EPA WTO EU FTA RTA RTA RTA 39 CU Panagariya and Findlay (1996) 1998 EU (The Economist, ) 19
21 3.4 FTA FTA NAFTA FTA RTA RTA RTA RTA Limao (2005) Limao and Karacaovali (2005) Limao (2005) 1994 ( ) 2.75% 4% Limao and Karacaovali (2005) EU EU 40 EU WTO MERCOSUR GATT EU (2003) (2004) 41 20
22 RTA RTA Foroutan (1998) RTA RTA Bohara et al. (2004) MERCOSUR RTA 6 RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA FTA 21
23 FTA FTA FTA FTA 1997 EU (Pan-European Cumulation System, PESC) FTA 42 FTA RTA AFTA RTA GATT24 RTA RTA GATT RTA GATT 42 EPA 22
24 RTA RTA WTO RTA 43 RTA RTA RTA FTA FTA FTA RTA RTA RTA RTA RTA 43 23
25 RTA RTA Abrego, Lisandro, Raymond Riezman, and John Whalley (2004) How Often are Propositions on the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: Theoretical Curiosa and When Should They Guide Policy?. Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. Anson, Josè, Olivier Cadot, Antoni Estevadeordal, Jaime de Melo, Akiko Suwa- Eisenmann, and Bolorma Tumurchudur (2005) Rules of Origin in North-South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA, Review of International Economics, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp Bagwell, Kyle and Robert W. Staiger (1999) Regionalism and Multilateral Tariff Cooperation, in John Piggott and Alan Woodland eds. International Trade Policy and the Pacific Rim, New York: St. Martin s Press. Bergsten, Fred C. (1997) Open Regionalism, World Economy, Vol. 20, No. 5, pp Bhagwati, Jagdish N. (1993) Regionalism and Multilateralism: An Overview, in J. De Melo and A. Panagariya eds. New Dimensions in Regional Integration, New York: Cambridge University Press, Chap. 2, pp Bhagwati, Jagdish N. and Arvind Panagariya (1996) Preferential Trading Areas and Multilateralism: Strangers, Friends or Foes?, in Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya eds. The Economics of Preferential Trading, Washington, D.C.: AEI Press, pp Bohara, Alok K., Kishore Gawande, and Pablo Sanguinetti (2004) Trade Diversion and 24
26 Declining Tariffs: Evidence from Mercosur, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 64, No. 1, pp Bond, Eric W. and Constantinos Syropoulos (1996) Trading Blocs and the Sustainability of Inter-Regional Cooperation, in M. Canzoneri, W. Ethier, and V. Grilli eds. The New Transatlantic Economy, New York: Cambridge University Press. Chang, Won and Alan L. Winters (2002) How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR, American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 4, pp Ethier, Wilfred J. (1998) Regionalism in a Multilateral World, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 106, No. 6, pp (2004) Trade Policies Based on Political Externalities: An Exploration, February. PIER Working Paper , University of Pennsylvania. Fernández, Raquel and Jonathan Portes (1998) Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp Foroutan, Faezeh (1998) Does Membership in a Regional Preferential Trade Arrangement Make a Country More or Less Protectionist?. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No Frankel, Jeffrey A. (1997) Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System, Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics. Freund, Caroline L. (2000a) Different Paths To Free Trade: The Gains From Regionalism, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 115, No. 4, pp (2000b) Multilateralism and the Endogenous Formation of Preferential Trade Agreements, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp
27 Freund, Caroline L. and John McLaren (1999) On the Dynamics of Trade Diversion: Evidence from Four Trade Blocs, June. International Finance Discussion Paper No.637, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Garnaut, Ross (1994) Open Regionalism : Its Analitical Basis and Relevance to the International System, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp Gawande, Kishore, Pablo Sanguinetti, and Alok Bohara (2001) Exclusions for sale: Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman Model of Free Trade Agreements, July. Nafta- Mercosur Working Paper Series No 4, Latin American and Iberian Institute, University of New México. Grossman, Gene M. and Elhanan Helpman (1995) The Politics of Free-Trade Agreements, American Economic Review, Vol. 85, No. 4, pp Herin, Jan (1986) Rules of Origin and DIfferences between Tariff Levels in EFTA and in the EC. EFTA Occasional Paper No.13, Geneva. Kennan, John and Raymond Riezman (1990) Optimal Tariff Equilibria with Customs Unions, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 90, No. 1, pp Kiyono, Kazuharu (1993) Who Will Be Called Partner? : An Importing Country s incentive to Form a Free Trade Area, Economic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp Kose, M. Ayhan and Raymond Riezman (2000) Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements, Review of International Economics, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp Krishna, Pravin (1998) Regionalism and Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 113, No. 1, pp Krishna, Pravin and Arvind Panagariya (2000) A Unification of Second Best Results in International Trade, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp
28 Krueger, Anne O. (1999) Free Trade Agreements as Protectionist Devices: Rules of Origin, in James R. Melvin, James C. Moore, and Raymond Riezman eds. Trade, Theory and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of John Chipman, London and New York: Routledge. Krugman, Paul R. (1991) Is Bilateralism Bad?, in Elhanan Helpman and Assaf Razin eds. International Trade and Trade Policy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp (1993) Regionalism versus Multilateralism: Analytical Notes, in Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagariya eds. New dimensions in regional integration, New York: Cambridge University Press, pp Limao, Nuno (2005) Preferential Trade Agreements as Stumbling Blocks for Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence for the US. American Economic Review, forthcoming. Limao, Nuno and Baybars Karacaovali (2005) The Clash of Liberalizations : Preferential versus Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the European Union. Policy Research Working Paper Series No.3493, The World Bank. Lipsey, Richard G. (1957) The Theory of Customs Unions : Trade Diversion and Welfare, Economica, Vol. 24, pp , February. McLaren, John (2002) A Theory of Insidious Regionalism, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, No. 2, pp Meade, James E. (1955) The Theory of Customs Unions, Amsterdam: North-Holland. Mukunoki, Hiroshi (2005) Comparing Alternative Paths to Free Trade under Endogenous Political Pressures, March. GEM Discussion Paper Series No.04-3, Gakushuin University. Mukunoki, Hiroshi and Kentaro Tachi (2005) Multilateralism and Hub-and-Spoke Bilateralism. Review of International Economics, forthcoming. Mundell, Robert (1964) Tariff Preference and the Terms of Trade, Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp
29 Panagariya, Arvind and Ronald Findlay (1996) A Political Economy Analysis of Free Trade Areas and Customs Union, in R. Feenstra, D. Irwin, and G. Grossman eds. The Political Economy of Trade Reform: Essays in Honor of Jagdish Bhagwati, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Raff, Horst (2001) Preferential Trade Liberalization under Cournot Competition, Review of International Economics, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp Richardson, Martin (1993) Endogenous Protection and Trade Diversion, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 34, No. 3-4, pp Schiff, Maurice W. and Alan L. Winters (2002) Regional Integration and Development, Washington, D.C.: World Bank and Oxford University Press. Viner, Jacob (1950) The Customs Unions Issue, Washinton, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Winters, Alan L. and Won Chang (2000) Regional Integration and Import Prices: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp WTO (1995) Regionalism and the World Trading System, Geneve: WTO Secretariat. (2001) (2003) WTO RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-J-015, (2004) WTO
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はじめに 本報告は 自由貿易協定と関税同盟の経済学 : 既存研究の整理と展望 学習院大学経済学部椋寛 2007/01/23 CREP 月例セミナー Mukunoki, Hiroshi, Understanding the Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements: A Theoretical Overview 学習院大学経済経営研究所年報 ( 第 19 巻 ),pp.31-51,
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