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1 2 book conference Repeated Cross-Section Data 1 M1,M2 M1 Sekine(1998) Repeated Cross-Section Data 1

2 1. (1989), Yoshida and Rasche(1990), Rasche(1990), , Fujiki and Mulligan(1996), 1996, Sekine(1998), (2001), Fujiki(2002), 2003, (2004) Bahmani-Oskooee and Shabsigh(1996), Amano and Wirjanto(2000), Bahmani-Oskooee (2001), 2001, Nagayasu(2003), Tang (2004) 1989 ECM VECM Fujiki and Mulligan(1996) M Fujiki(2002) 2004 M Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin(1992)Mankiw (1992) Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin(2000) Attanasio, Guiso and Jappelli(2002) ( ) Repeated Cross-Section Data 2

3 2 3 M1 Nakashima and Saito(2002)(2004)Miyao(2003) ) Repeated Cross-Section Data 1 + M1 M1 M CPI 1 M1M2 M1 3

4 Sample Selection Bias (2) 4

5 Inverse Mill s Ratio (1) Heckman Sample Selection ln( + M i, t Pt ) = β0 + β R ln( Rt ) + β I ln( Ii, t / Pt ) + β Xj X i, t, j ui, t j (1) α 0 + α R ln( R t ) + α I ln( Ii, t / Pt ) + α Xj X i, t, j + e i, t un(0,σ) en(0,1) corr(u,e)=ρ j 0 (2) 2 M Fujiki(2002) 2004 M1 Rasche(1990) M1() 1 5

6 3 M1() Rasche(1990) (2004) M2() 1 6

7 5 M2() 1 M Fujiki and Mulligan(1996) Yoshida and Rasche(1990) 1.2 Bahmani-Oskooee(2001) M ) (1)(2) 6 M M

8 6 1 2 M1() * 3 M2() 8

9 2M1 3M2 M M2 6 1 M Sekine(1998) Mankiw 1992 (1)(2) M M2 9 Sekine(1998) M2+CD 0.4 M1 0.41M Baumol =Tobin 9

10 7 M1() 2 8 M1() 2 10

11 9 M2() 2 10 M2() M1,M2 11

12 M M1 M2 6 7 M1 M M1() * 12

13 5 M2() 6 M1() 7 M2() 5. ( ) Fujiki and Mulligan(1996) Repeated Cross-Section Data 1 13

14 M1,M2 M1 Sekine(1998) M1 M2 1) ) (2001) 20 1 (2004)

15 Amano, R and T.S. Wirjanto(2000), On the Stability of Long-run M2 Demand in Japan, The Japanese Economic Review Vol.51 No.4, pp Attanasio,O.P., L.Guiso and T.Jappelli(2002), The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation and Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Aalysis with Household Data, Journal of Political Economy Vol.110 No.2, pp Bahmani-Oskooee,M(2001), How Stable is M2 money demand function in Japan?, Japan and the World Economy13, pp Bahmani-Oskooee,M and G. Shabsigh(1996), The Demand for Money in Japan: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis, Japan and the World Economy 8, pp.1-10 Fujiki, H., and C.B.Mulligan(1996), A Structural Analysis of Money Demand: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Japan, Monetary and Economic Studies Vol.14 No.2, pp Fujiki, H.(2002), Money Demand near Zero Interest Rate: Evidence from Regional Data, Monetary and Economic Studies 20(2), pp Lucas,R.E(2000), Inflation and Welfare, Econometrica, 68(2), pp Mankiw,N.G(1992), Comments, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, pp Mulligan,C.A and X. Sala-i-Martin(1992) "U.S. monetary demand: surprising cross-sectional estimate", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, pp Mulligan,C.A and X. Sala-i-Martin(2000) "Extensive Margins and the Demand for Money at Low Interest Rate ", Journal of Political Economy Vol.108 No.5, pp Miyao, R.(2003) Liquidity Traps and the Stability of Monetary Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound? mimeo Nagayasu, J(2003), A re-examination of the Japanese Money Demand Function and Structural Shift, Journal of Policy Modeling 25, pp Nakashima, K. and M. Saito(2002), Strong Money Demand and Nominal Rigidity: 15

16 Evidence from the Japanese Money Market under the Low Interest Rate Policy, Discussion Paper No , Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University Rasche,R.H(1990), Equilibrium Income and Interest Elasticities of the Demand for M1 in Japan Monetary and Economic Studies Vol.8 No.2, pp Sekine,T(1998), Financial Liberalization, the Wealth Effect, and the Demand for Broad Money in Japan, Monetary and Economic Studies Vol.16 No.1, pp Tang, T.C.(2004), Demand for Broad Money and Expenditure Components in Japan: An Empirical Study Japan and the World Economy, forthcoming Yoshida,T. and R.H.Rasche(1990), The M2 Demand in Japan: Shifted and Unstable? Monetary and Economic Studies Vol.8 No.2, pp Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin(2000)Attanasio, Guiso and Jappelli(2002) Lucas(2000) = r η W ( r) ( ) ( ) = r η m x dx rm r µ (3) 0 1 η m M % (2001) GDP

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46−ª3�=4�“ƒ‚S“·‚Ö‡¦ 463420101 1. 1989, Yoshida and Rasche1990, Rasche1990, 19921997, Fujiki and Mulligan1996, 1996, Sekine1998, 2001, Fujiki2002, 2003, 2004 Bahmani-Oskooee and Shabsigh1996, Amano and Wirjanto2000, Bahmani-Oskooee