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1 Vol Nishizawa Since 1997 Seminar
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7 N (937) (165) (131) N=1233 JEDS96 6
8 , 1992, p
9 2 Denis, 1989, p , p
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11 1996 JEDS
12 (N)(385) (84) (82) N=551 JEDS
13 (N) (304) (63) (67) N=434 JEDS 12
14 JEDS96 JEDS96 JEDS JEDS Q17. A. or O.M M.A DKNA 3 Q20SQ2 A 13
15 DKNA QMI DK NA DKNA 14
16 Denis, Michel, 1979,,,, 1989, p , p Feldman, Ofer,,, 1989, p Goble, Frank, 1970,,, 1972, p.59-84,, 1994, p ,,, 1992, p Norusis, Maria, SPSS,,
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26 (411) (252) (126) (55) (12) (13) 5 25
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50 Sociotropic Pocketbook Pocketbook Sociotropic Sociotropic 7 Sociotropic Sin-Sociotropic N=
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52 Sociotropic Pocketbook Pocketbook Sociotropic 5 6 7JEDS Q SQ SQ 10 11
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90 3 4 5 JEDS96NES , p , p NES96 Q. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? SQ1. Would you call yourself a strong (Republican/ Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican/Democrat)? SQ2. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party? JEDS96 Q. SQ1. SQ2. 89
91 2 RepublicanDemocrat 2.2 Republican Democrat ( 1998, p. 6) 1983 JES 3 JES ( 1986, p , 1998, p. 45) 1 90
92 JABISS JES JES ( 1989, p , 1995, p ) ( 1989, p. 124) 2 ( 1992) 3 ( 1989, p. 126) ( 1998, p. 12) 91
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95 2 1 closeness support ( 1998, p. 7) ( 1992, p. 69) 1 ( 1985, p. 111) JES ( 1997, 3 )
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97 (20.85,.00) -.04(-1.75,.08).34(15.06,.00) N= (22.23,.00).27(9.51,.00).09(3.82,.00).76 N= N=746 96
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115 ,. 1,.,,.,. Brecher and Wilkenfeld 1997.,.,. 1,.,.,.. 2,.. 3..,.. 114
116 1.,..,, Snyder(1977), Allison(1971), Bueno de Mesquita(1981), Hermann(1972), Holsti(1972)..,.,.., Morrow(1989), Powell(1990), Fearon(1995).,,.,.,.,,.., ,. ( ),.,,, 115
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119 3. ICB( International Crisis Behavior Project.ICB, Michael Brecher Jonathan Wilkenfeld ICB. 2. foreign policy crisis, international crisis.,..,. Brecher Wilkenfeld. Brecher and Wilkenfeld 1997, p.41., New York Times Keesing s Contemporary Archives, , 2, 3 (Brecher and Wilkenfeld 1997, p.3) Brecher Wilkenfeld, 118
120 ICB.,.,.,, ,,...,.,,.,,.,,. 9,.. ICB. 119
121 ICB system data variable47escalation or reduction of tension... 2,. 5, 5. 0, 1. ICB system data variable51issues., one issue other than military-security, two issues other than military-security, military-security issue alone, two issues, including military-security, three or more issues.,. three or more issues. ICB System-Level Dataset variable63 ethnic related crisis.. secessionist conflict, irredentist conflict, non-ethnic conflict. secessionist conflict irredentist conflict 1,, non-ethnic conflict 0, 1. ICB System-Level Dataset variable1 break point( trigger) to international crisis.,,,,. verbal act, political act, economic act, external change, other non-violent act, internal verbal or physical challenge to regime or elite, indirect violent act, violent act., 120
122 . violent act. verbal act,. ICB System-Level Dataset variable 6 gravity of value threat., economic threat, limited military damage, political threat, territorial threat, threat to influence, threat of grave damage, threat to existence, other.,. threat to existence other. ICB System-Level Dataset variable7 crisis management technique.. negotiation, adjudication, multiple not including violence, non-military pressure, multiple including violence, violence.,. violence. adjudication multiple including violence. ICB System-Level Dataset variable44 content of outcome..,.,. definitive outcome ambiguous outcome, definitive 0, ambiguous outcome 1. ICB System-Level Dataset variable45 form of outcome.. formal agreement, semi-formal agreement, tacit understanding, unilateral act, imposed agreement, other, crisis faded. 121
123 ,. imposed agreement other crisis faded. ICB System-Level Dataset variable46 extent of satisfaction about outcome.., all satisfied, mostly satisfied, equally mixed, mostly dissatisfied,all dissatisfied 0 5. single actor case no adversarialactor , 2.,.., 1., , ,, , 122
124 .,,., military-security issue alone, two issues including military-security, threat of gravedamage.,,
125 ,.., unilateral act..,., R
126 ,,,,.,, 2.,..,.,., 125
127 , ,.,.. 1,.,,.,. 2,.,..?.,.,.,.,.,.,,. 3 ICB. 4,. NATO OSCE,,. 5,. 6,. 7 Brecher Wilkenfeld 126
128 ,. 1, 2,,, 3. 8 Hermann Brecher and Wilkenfeld, 1997 p ,,. 10 ICB HP. 11,,,.. 12,. Brecher, Michael and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. A study of crisis. Ann Arbor, The university of Michigan press,
129 1 (social capital) 2 1 ( 2002) 2 ( 2002, p. 217) 2 6 (social power) 6 128
130 2 4 1 ( 2001, p. 216) Bonacich (Bonacich 1992, p. 227) Bonacich 129
131 B B A 4 A B 3 (social power) ( ) ( ) ( 1987, p. 164)
132 ( 1959)( 1996) ( 1959, p. 741) ( 1996, p ) ( 1996, p. 82) ( 1986, p. 37) ( 1959) 131
133 4 ( 2001, p. 217)
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136 ( 1994, p ) ( ) 7( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (024 ) ( 1994, p )
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138
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140 6 1 (social capital) (Coleman 1988)( 2001) 2 3 Kalman (Kalman 2002, p. 128) 4 (Kalman 2002)(Bonacich 1992) Kalman Bonacich 139
141 5 1 ( 1987, p. 164) , 1, , 26, , J.R.P. Jr.B. 1959, ( 1959, 32 ) () 1994, 2002, D () 2001, NTT James S. Coleman 1988, Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital American Journal of Sociology 94 Michael E. Kalman; Peter Monge; Janet Fulk; Rebecca Heino 2002, Motivations to Resolve Communication Dilemmas in Database-Mediated Collaboration Communication Research April 2002 Phillip Bonacich; Sherry Schneider 1992, Communication Networks and Collective Action (Wim B.G. Liebrand; David M. Messick; Henk A.M. Wilke (Ed) 1992, Social Dilemmas/Theoretical issues and research findings Pergamon Press, Chapter14) 140
142 141
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152 151
153 ( 1 ) Q12. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as Liberal, National or what? Q79. Did your father have any particular preference for one of the political parties when you we young, say about 16 years old? And how about your mother?(sic) ( 2 ) Q75. Where were you born? And where were your mother and father born?(sic)
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157 No pain, no gain.,.,.. 156
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159 Vol [ ] Tel ynishiza@mail.doshisha.ac.jp HPhppt://www1.doshisha.ac.jp/~ynishiza/index.html Copyright 2003 Nishizawa Seminar Printed in Japan
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