東アジアにおける垂直的産業内貿易と直接投資
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1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-J-009
2 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-J NBER-CEPR-TCER-RIETI 5 TRIO James Harrigan
3 . Vertical Intra-industry Trade Falvey ( Greenaway, Hine and Milner (994, 995 Aturupane, Djankov and Hoekman (999 EU Fontagné, Freudenberg, and Péridy (997 EU 2 Feenstra and Hanson(200 Feenstra and Hanson 996 Slaughter 2000 Head and Ries 2002 Kimura and Fukasaku 2002 Kimura Abe (997Murshed ( HS9 (2003
4 EU HS9 2 EU GDP GDP ASEAN4 EU MERCOSUR leap-frogging 999 SITC-R3 # SITC-R3 # HS6 0 Hu and Ma (999 SITC3 2
5 999 SITC-R3 #764 2,724 2,28 SITC-R3 # EU IT EU EU 5 IT GDP EU GDP leap-frogging World Trade Analyzer Urata ( Markusen (995 Markusen, Venables, Konan, and Zhang (996 Carr, Markusen and Maskus (
6 Greenaway, Hine and Milner 995Fontagné, Freudenberg, and Péridy (997 Aturupane, Djankov and Hoekman ( ( OWT (2 HIIT (3 VIIT M kk j k k j M k kj : k k j UV kk j k k j UV k kj k k j 2-5 ( (2 (3 3 OWT HIIT VIIT Z j j ( M ( M Z kk ' j kk ' j + M + M Z k ' kj k ' kj HIIT /.25 (
7 Abd-el-Rahman (99 Greenaway, Hine, and Milner (994 Fontagné, Freudenberg, and Péridy (997 IIT IIT 5% 25% EU HS88 Harmonized commodity description and coding System revised in 988 Fontagné, Freudenberg, and Péridy (997 8 Combined Nomenclature, CN 5% 5% 2-5. Min( M kk ' j, M k ' kj (One-Way Trade OWT Max( M kk ' j, M k ' kj 0. Min( M, M (Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade HIIT Max( M kk ' j kk ' j, M Min( M, M (Vertical Trade, VIIT Intra-Industry Max( M kk ' j kk ' j, M k ' kj k ' kj k ' kj k ' kj > UV kk ' j UVk ' kj >0. <. 25 UV UV kk ' j k ' kj.25 UV UV or.25< kk ' j k ' kj EU UN Statistics Division PC-TAS (Personal Computer Trade Analysis System HS88 Harmonized commodity description and coding System revised in PC-TAS SITC-R3 SITC-R HS88 5
8 HS HS PC-TAS PC-TAS 5 2 OWT 2 PC-TAS 2 3 PC-TAS PC-TAS HS9 HS6 PC-TAS 4 f.o.b. c.i.f. PC-TAS HS c.i.f PC-TAS f.o.b HS HS HS % PC-TAS
9 5 f.o.b. c.i.f. B , OWT2 HIIT 6 VIIT EU PC-TAS EU ASEAN4 NIE3 EU EU Helpman and Krugman EU 3 OWT VIIT HIIT Grubel-Lloyd EU HIIT VIIT EU 5 c.i.f.f.o.b. c.i.f.f.o.b. 6 7
10 A HIIT-VIIT OWT OWT-VIIT OWT-HIIT HIIT VIIT EU OWT VIIT EU VIIT EU VIIT HIIT EU EU % EU EU EU EU VIIT HIIT VIIT EU
11 2.5. EU 996 3% % EU 52% 58% PC-TAS HS ASEAN VIIT VIIT % VIIT % ASEAN VIIT ( % % % % 8.5% 7.0% 4.6% ASEAN ASEAN 2-7 9
12 3. 4 Falvey ( h f2 L K [n, n+] [0, ] (n, q q n + kn, q y n q = min[ K n, q,( + kn, q Ln, k, q n, q ] (3. K n, q L n, q k n, q n q: k q n, = an + b( q 0.5 (3.2 a b n n+ q n
13 w < w < r < r f h h f (3.3 r i w i i i (n, q MC k i n, q n, q = wi + ( ri i + kn, q w ( n (n, q MC i n,0 n (q=0 i MC i n, n (q= i (q=0 n 2 2 q=0 b/a (3.4 k* w k* = r h f w r h f (3.5 k* (3.2 [(k*+0.5b/a, n+] h [0, ] f [n, (k*-0.5b/a] f [0, ] 7 [(k*-0.5b/a, (k*+0.5b/a] k* 7 n<(k*-0.5b/a (k*+0.5b/a<n+
14 k* 3- n (R n n n q (n, q n [0, j(n] /(-σ σ 0 j (n, q p P n, q, j n σ E P j( n n (3.6 E E n q n P n P n j( n = 0 j( n 0 p σ σ n, q, j djdq σ σ (3.7 n j(n 2 M FDI h f FDI M h FDI M f 2
15 FDI 2 3 FDI 2 FDI 3 FDI 3.2. FDI FDI M h n [0, ] 8 π h n σ E σ = ( σp n w σ Pn j( n 0 h kn, + + k q n, q ( r h w h σ σ dq R (3.8 π f n σ E σ = ( σp n w σ Pn j( n 0 f kn, + + k q n, q ( r f w f σ σ dq R (3.9 n* [n*, n+] [n, n*] n* 9 8 (3.6 /(-σ / σ- (n, q σ E σ h σ ( σpn ( MCn, q σ Pn j( n (3.8 9 n<n*<n+ n* 3
16 w 0 h kn*, + + k q n*, q ( r h w h σ σ dq = w 0 f kn*, + + k q n*, q ( r f w f σ σ dq (3.0 n j(n (3.7 (3.8 (3.9 E R = σ j( n ( FDI n (n, q FDI FDI FDI FDI M h (3.5 (vertical 4
17 + + + = b an k f f q n q n f n n M n dq w r k k w P n j P E * 0.5 0,, ( [ ( ( σ σ σ σ σ σ π R M dq w r k k w h b an k h h q n q n h ] ( * 0.5,, σ σ (3.2 (3.8 (3.8 (3.2 [(k*-0.5b/a, (k*+0.5b/a] 3- j(n = 0 M π n (3.7 (3.2 FDI (3. [(k*+0.5b/a, n+] ( FDI abdc h efgh abfe hgcd 5
18 FDI 3-2 h 3-3 FDI M h [(k*-0.5b/a, (k*+0.5b/a] (k*-0.5b/a (k*+0.5b/a FDI FDI 3.4. FDI h FDI M h T h, f T f, h f n E f f n P n, f (n, q 20 P n n 6
19 σ σ σ σ σ σ + +,, ( [ ( ( f f q n q n f n n w r k k w P n j P E ] (,,, σ σ σ σ + + h h q n q n h f h w r k k w T k n, q h f h f f h f h q n r T r w w T k,,, < ( k (3.3 k* k abcd aeb 2 2,22 abcd T f, h Falvey (
20 ( FDI FDI (2 FDI FDI 20 Balassa 986 Balassa and Bauwens 987 Bergstrand 990 Stone and Lee 995 Grubel-Lloyd Abd-el-Rahman (99 Greenaway, Hine and Milner ( Fontagné, Freudenberg and Péridy (997 Durkin and Krygier ( Greenaway, Hine and Milner ( Aturupane, Djankov and Hoekman (999 EU Hu and Ma (999 8
21 OECD 20 Durkin and Krygier (2000 GDP Greenaway, Hine and Milner (994 Durkin and Krygier (2000 GDP 24 Fontagné, Freudenberg and Péridy ( EC FDI FDI FDI FDI Hu and Ma ( Durkin and Krygier (2000 Greenaway, Hine and Milner (994 Greenaway 2 GDP 3 Greenaway 9
22 SITC SITC3 45 FDI FDI FDI FDI 25 FDI FDI PC-TAS 2 HS ASEAN FDI ASEAN FDI FDI Y kk t = α 0 + α FDI kk t + α 2 DGDPPC kk t + α 3 DIST kk + α 4 INDSIZE kk t + α 5 DREG k + α 6 D t + ε kk t (4. y kk t = SHVIIT, LTSHVIIT 25 FDI FDI FDI C HS9 PC-TAS PC-TAS f.o.b. c.i.f. f.o.b.c.i.f. 2 20
23 FDI kk t : FDI DGDPPC kk t : DIST kk : INDSIZE kk t: DREG k : D t : t t 4- C k k SHVIIT 2 SHVIIT LTSHVIIT SHVIIT 4 ( FDI kk t k 3 FDISALE kk t k FDI FDI FDISALE kk t TRFRC (2 GDP DGDPPC kk t k k GDP C2 2
24 GDP DGDPPC kk t k DEDUYR kk DEDUYR kk k (3 k DIST kk FDI FDI (4 k INDSIZE kk k FDI FDI OLS 22
25 4-2 FDISALE FDI TRFRC*FDISALE DIST INDSIZE GDP DGDPPC Greenaway, Hine and Milner (994 OECD Durkin and Krygier (2000 EC Fontagné, Freudenberg and Péridy ( DGDPPC 2 DGDPPC^2 GDP GDP FDI DEDUYR HS6 HS9 EU C2 C
26 FDI EU EU EU HS9 ASEAN FDI FDI FDI GDP FDI 24
27 FDI Head and Ries (2002 Tomiura (200 Kimura (200 Kimura and Fukasaku (2002 Kwan (
28 A. A. SITC-R3 2 HS , 07, 08, 22, 29, , 09,, , 28, , 5-59, , 6, 8-83, , 64-67, , 25, 63, , 65, , 87, 88 84, , 76, , , 96, 97 7, 93, B B 26
29 C. SHVIIT PC-TAS HS9 FDISALE (200 ( Elsevier Advanced Technology / Reed Electronics Research ( DGDPPC GDP GDP World Bank (2002b GDP World Bank (2002b IMF GDP GDP World Bank (2002b GDP World Bank (2002b GDP DEDUYR 990 World Bank (2002a GDP GDP 2 27
30 DIST,000km INDSIZE Elsevier Advanced Technology / Reed Electronics Research ( GDP GDP GDP World Bank (2002b GDP World Bank (2002b IMF GDP World Bank (2002b GDP RISK Institutional Investor Systems Institutional Investor COTAX OPERATE 996 OPERATE 28
31 OPERATE GDPPC GDP GDP EDUYR OPERATE OPERATE2 996 OPERATE2 OPERATE2 GDPPC GDPGDP EDUYR OPERATE TRFRC FDI 996 C C2 C3 29
32 pp pp.-3 ( pp pp Abe, Shigeyuki (997 Trade and Investment Relations of Japan and ASEAN in a Changing Global Economic Environment, Kobe Economic and Business Review, Vol. 42, pp Abd-el-Rahman, K. (99 Firms Competitive and National Comparative Advantages as Joint Determinants of Trade Composition, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 27, No., pp Aturupane, Chonira, Simeon Djankov and Bernard Hoekman (999 Horizontal and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade between Eastern Europe and the European Union, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol.35, No., pp Balassa, Bela (986 The Determinants of Intra-Industry Specialisation in US Trade, Oxford Economic Papers 38, pp Balassa, Bela and Luc Bauwens (987 Intra-Industry Specialization in a Multi-Country and Multi-Industry Framework, Economic Journal 97 (December, pp Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. (990 The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model, The Linder Hypothesis and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade, Economic Journal 00 (December, pp Carr, David L., James R. Markusen, and Keith E. Maskus, (200 Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise, American Economic Review, 30
33 Vol. 9, No. 3, pp Durkin, John T. and Markus Krygier (2000 Differences in GDP Per Capita and the Share of Intraindustry Trade: The Role of Vertically Differentiated Trade, Review of International Economics 8 (4, pp Elsevier Advanced Technology/Reed Electronics Research (, Yearbook of World Electronics Data. Falvey, Rodney E. (98 Commercial Policy and Intra-Industry Trade, Journal of International Economics, pp Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson (996 Foreign Investment, Outsourcing, and Relative Wages in Robert C. Feenstra, Gene M. Grossman and Douglas A. Irwin (eds., The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Papers in Honor of Jagdish Bhagwati, Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press. Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson (200 Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages, NBER Working Paper No. 8372, July, National Bureau of Economic Research. Fontagné, Lionel, Michael Freudenberg, and Nicholas Péridy (997 Trade Patterns Inside the Single Market, CEPII Working Paper No , April, Centre D Etudes Prospectives et D Informations Internationales. (Downloaded on June 7, 2002 from Greenaway, D., R.Hine, and C.Milner (994 Country-Specific Factors and the Pattern of Horizontal and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade in the UK, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol.30, No., pp Greenaway, D., R.Hine, and C.Milner (995 Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade: A Cross Industry Analysis for the United Kingdom, Economic Journal 05 (November, pp Head, Keith and John Ries (2002 Offshore Production and Skill Upgrading by Japanese Manufacturing Firms, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 58, Issue, pp Helpman, Elhanan and Paul R. Krugman (985 Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Hu, Xiaoling and Yue Ma (999 International Intra-Industry Trade of China, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 35, No., pp IMF (International Monetary Fund (2002 International Financial Statistics, June 2002, CD-ROM, Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund. IMF (, World Economic Outlook and the database underlying the September 2002 issue, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (downloaded on October 7, 2002 from 3
34 IMF web site, Kimura, Fukunari (200 Fragmentation, Internalization, and Inter-firm Linkages: Evidence from the Micro Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms, in Leonard K. Cheng and Henryk Kiezkowski, eds., Global Production and Trade in East Asia, Norwell: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Kimura, Fukunari and Kiichiro Fukasaku (2002 Globalization and Intra-firm Trade: Further Evidence, in Peter Lloyd and Hyun Hoon Lee, eds., Frontiers of Research in Intra-industry Trade, New York: Macmillan. Kwan, C. H. (2002 The Rise of China and Asia s Flying-Geese Pattern of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis Based on US Import Statistics, RIETI Discussion Paper Series, #02-E-009, July Markusen, James R. (995 The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade, Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(2, pp Markusen, James R., Anthony J. Venables, Denise Eby Konan, and Kevin H.Zhang (996 A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services, NBER Working Paper No. 5696, August, National Bureau of Economic Research. Murshed, S. Mansoob (200 Patterns of East Asian Trade and Intra-Industry Trade in Manufactures, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Vol. 6, No., pp Slaughter, Matthew J. (2000 Production Transfer within Multinational Enterprises and American Wages. Journal of International Economics, 50, pp Stone, Joe A. and Hyun-Hoon Lee (995 Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade: A Longitudinal, Cross-Country Analysis, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol. 3, No., pp Tomiura, Eiichi (200 Sensitivity of Domestic Production to Import Competition: Evaluation at Different Levels of Aggregation, Kobe Economic and Business Review, Vol. 46, pp UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (200 World Investment Report 200, New York and Geneva: United Nations. Urata, Shujiro (2002 A Shift from Market-Led to Institution-Led Regional Economic Integration in East Asia, paper presented at Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry International Conference Asian Economic Integration, April 2002, United Nations University, Tokyo. U.S. Department of Commerce (2002 U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: Operations of U.S. Parent Companies and Their Foreign Affiliates (downloaded from White, Halbert (980 A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct 32
35 Test for Heteroskedasticity, Econometrica 48, pp World Bank (2002a Barro-Lee Dataset: International Schooling Years and Schooling Quality, (downloaded from on 8 September, World Bank (2002b World Development Indicators 2002, CD-ROM. 33
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40
41 2-. EU OWT HIIT VIIT : PC-TAS 39
42 OWT HIIT VIIT : PC-TAS 40
43 2-3. EU OWT HIIT VIIT : PC-TAS 4
44 OWT HIIT VIIT : PC-TAS 42
45 OWT EU4 NIEs3 ASEAN5 NAFTA HIIT VIIT : ( ASEAN5 ( EU4 ( ( NAFTA ( NIE3 ( ( ( : 43
46 2-6. VIIT 988, 994, 2000 (SHVIIT25 (% (a NIEs (FDISALE (% VIIT (SHVIIT25 (% (b ASEAN GDP (FDISALE (% : VIIT ( FDISALE B 44
47
48 3-. 2 MCn, f b/a MCn,0 f MCn, h MCn,0 h n (k*-0.5b/a (k*+0.5b/a n+ n 46
49 3-2. kn, q h f n n* n+ n 47
50 3-3. kn, q f h 2 d h c h k* e g a f b (k*0.5b/a (k*+0.5b/a n n+ n 48
51 3-4. kn, q k k* d c a b e (k*0.5b/a (k*+0.5b/a n n+ n 49
52
53
54 B: HS for EX HS for IM EX+IM (,000 (,000 ( ,342,672 KG 4,846,555 65,79, KG 5,064,898 53,63, yes no VIIT ,829,97 KG,785,459 9,688, KG 24,70,383 67,4, yes no VIIT ,700,5 KG 2,40,327 40,333, KG,336,073 9,366, yes yes HIIT 4 ( ( ( ( ,083,094 KG 4,47,673 32,268, KG 4,76,498 26,84, yes yes HIIT 5 (,000V ( (,000V (,000V ( ( ,476,43 KG 4,675,039 28,89, KG 5,033,696 24,657, yes no VIIT ( ( ( ,983,835 NO 33,784 2,69, NO 2,453,767 46,364, no yes OWT ( ( (MPU,MCU,MPR ( ( ,429,77 NO 340,000,000 37,973, NO 34,900,000 0,455, yes no VIIT ( ( 37.5 ( 0W ,0,093 KG 57,696 4,907, KG 0,602,695 39,93, yes no VIIT ( ( ( ( ( ,755, ( ( NO 5,542 49, KG no error OWT ( ( ,859,800 KG 6,680,248 37,705, KG,65,926 4,54, yes no VIIT ( a 0 593,562, ,544, ,08,338 b ( 309,222,779, ,984, ,795,249 a+b,86,342,265 99,528, ,83,587 : fob cif : Zeirom 200 for Windows.
55 C. 43
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