1 Masato Shimura

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1 Masato Shimura script J Reference 9 A 9 A A B E.Show 9. (

2 f (x = λe λx E(x = λ V(x = λ 2 plot hist_count r59* exponentialrand 3 stick plot hist_count exponentialrand lnn(µ, σ 2, N = xσ 2π exp 2 (x µ 2 σ 2 x (<x< N(µ, σ 2 s = σt + µ e s

3 plot hist_count 3 rand_normal_ln Script rand_normal_ln=: 4 : NB. y is lnn( NB. y is N (rno N MU VAR =: y NML=: rno ;, x xˆ MU + (%: VAR* NML NB. grouping for histgram hist_count=: 3 : NB. usage: plot ( hist_count rno NB. x is pitch(times// y is random number ; # L: ( : <. tmp<;. tmp=. /: y : ; # L: ( : <.&.(x &* tmp<;. tmp=. /: y NB. ===========Norman thomson======================== rnd=: (%?@(e9&(# NB. uniformed random number ( run=: + (*rnd/ rn=:-:-+/@run@:( &,NB. Normal distribution NB. Usage: rno a b c//a(mean b(standard deviation c(number NB. e.g. nro 2 5 is N(2 5 rno=: 3 : ({. y +({y *({: y (rn &>@#2.3 issue:

4 F(t + dt F(t = eλt e λ(t+dt F(t e λt = e λdt dt e λdt λ = 59.5 % λ =.68 Y = lnx µ σ 2 f (t = µ2 { (lnx e 2σ 2 } 2πσx e µ+σ2 2 (= e 2µ+σ e 2µ+2σ2 e 2µ+σ ( e µ+σ2 2 = e 2µ+2σ2 e 2µ+σ2 = µ + σ 2 = 2 ln97.78 a = 2 ln97.8 = 2µ + σ 2 e 2µ+2σ2 = e 2µ+σ2 2µ + 2σ 2 = ln( e a = ln( e 2 ln97.8 ( 2µ + σ 2 = µ + 2σ 2 = a = 2 ln97.78 = 2µ + σ 2 2* ˆ µ + 2σ 2 = ln( e 2 ln97.8

5 ˆ x ˆ +: ˆ dat=. 2 3 $ dat cr=: %.}:" cr dat _.22e_ e_ λ = = machi_ DATW _.22e_ e_ a= ;97.78;49.4; machi_ a _.22e_ e_ N.Thomson Script u : (, t = ln(u : λ N(m, σ 2 : ( s = σt + m e s : a= ;97.78;49.4; machi_sim a NB. unit is second arrive(exparrive cumurative service(ln,real

6 NB x number of customers y machi_sim DATW NB.this type is also available plot fulfill DATW machi_sim=:4 : if. 4=#y do. NB. 4 parameter MN_AR MN_SV VR_AR VR_SV =: y M M =:{:" machi_ y NB. parameter for ln normal random else. NB. native data

7 M M =:{: " machi_ y end. M=: x ˆS=: M + (%: M* rno,,x NB. ln normal random M2=: - MN_AR* ˆ. M=. rnd x NB. exponential random NB. -/lambda ln u M,.M2,.(; +/ L: <\ M2,.S,.M plot_machi DATW (or 2 plot_machi 5 machi_sim 59.54;97.78;49.4; x (ATM y 2 plot machi 5 machi sim a 35 3 DATW N arr wait NB ( (ATM 3. ( (FN

8 M M NR lastopen arrive service nextopen f st.nxt lastopen arrive service nextopen f st.nxt 65 F 232 N F N N (w F N (w F (w F (w N (w N (w F 2 machi_anal DATW nr. arv svce start end wait NB _ _ _ _ _ _ _78 NB. UNIT is sec. NB. number/arrive time /service time/start service/end_service/waiting NB. arrive start and end is cumurative(=real second NB. minus of wait is free time in operation 2 plot machi2 DATW 3 plot machi2 DATW.5 script NB main

9 arrive quere service ( 2 7 arrive quere service ( 3 machi_anal=: 4 : NB. 2 machi_anal DATW NB. 3 machi_anal 5 machi_sim m;m;v;v NB ;97.78;49.4; DAT=: 2 {" service y NB. del number index MACHINE=. +/" TMP=: x {. DAT NB. next free time ANS=. {(MACHINE,.(-{. " TMP,.TMP for_ctr. i. (# DAT - x do. COMBI=.({. MACHINE,(ctr + x {DAT WAIT NEXTOPEN RENEW =. calc_combi_sub COMBI ANS=. ANS,<NEXTOPEN,WAIT, RENEW MACHINE=. /: (}. MACHINE,NEXTOPEN end.

10 {" (i. # DAT,.DAT,.;(",. ANS calc_combi_sub=: 3 : LAST_STAY NW_ARR NW_SVC =. y NB. last-open new-arrive new-servicetime WAIT=. -/ LAST_STAY,NW_ARR NB. include minus NXT_OPEN=. >./(LAST_STAY,NW_ARR + NW_SVC NB. next open WAIT;NXT_OPEN;(>./(LAST_STAY,NW_ARR,NW_SVC.6 file machi new.ijs catalogue main sub explanation usage plot plot machi 2 plot machi y plot machi 2 plot machi y plot machi2, 2 plot machi2 y analysis machi anal calc combi sub x machi anal y x machi anal x2 machi sim y fulfill fulfill fulfill y fulfill service fulfill quere x fulfill service y fulfill quere fulfill quere x fulfill quere y machi sim machi sim x machi sim y machi simx machi simx another x machi simx y machi machi moment sub mach y machi machi moment sub mach y rud run rn rno N.Thomson sample file touhoku wait.csv ATM DATW (

11 OR 955 A probrem in the theory of Queres Rep.Stat.Appl.Res.JUSE,vol On the Server Quering Process withb a Particular Rep.Stat.Appl.Res.JUSE,vol OR (QR

12 2 J classes/packages/stats/ random.ijs,statdist.ijs Ver.6 New random number generators, including Mersenne Twister as the default RNG. 2 location parameter scale parameter 2. rand v rand generate y random numbers in interval (, generate y random numbers in interval (, binom binomialdist binomialprob binomialrand y has 2 elements p,n: normal normalprob normalrand y has 3 or 4 elements: = mean of distribution = standard deviation 2 = minimum result 3 = maximum result (rand with mean=, standard deviation=. Box Muller method Γ gammarand y has 2 elements p,n = power parameter = number of trials if p= this is the exponential distribution f (x = Γ(λ αλ x λ e αx

13 β betarand y has 3 elements p,q,n p is probability of success in one trial q is -p n is number of trials f (x = B(p, q xp ( x q E(x = p p + q pq V(x = (p + q 2 (p + q + Γ(pΓ(q B(p.q = Γ(p + q (p!(q! (p + q +! = poisson poissondist poissonprob poissonrand y has 2 elements: = mean of distribution = maximum value to show e.g. poissondist 2 = list of probabilities of values from to in poisson distribution of mean 2 exponential exponentialrand with mean=. F(x=-ˆ-x y = number of trials cauchy cauchyrand F(x =.5 + (arctan x%o. y is number of trials 2.2 binomial random numbers binomialrand.4 2 binomialrand=: 3 : p n =. y r= s=. <:p*r s>?n#<:r

14 normal random numbers Box Muller Method U, U 2 Z = 2logU cos(2πu 2 Z 2 = 2logU sin(2πu 2 stick plot hist count normalrand normalrand=: 3 : (2 o. +: o. rand y * %: - +: ˆ. rand y Z is cos without parameter normalrand poisson random numbers f (x = λx e λ x! bar plot hist count poissonrand 3 poissonrand=: 3 : m n =. y roll=. -@ˆ.@rand r=. b=. m >: t=. roll n i=. i.n while. #i=. b#i do. b=. m >: t=. (b#t + roll #i r=. (b + i{r i } r end. r poisson

15 exponential random numbers f (x = λe λx exponentialrand=: 3 : -ˆ.rand y f (x = e λx stick plot hist count exponentialrand e gammarand=: 3 : Γ random numbers f (x = β α Γ(α xα e( x p n =. y β r=. n# k=. p-i=. <.p gammarand(p,n if. k do. p is λ(= α, β r=. betarand k,(-.k,n p= is exponential rand / r=. r * -ˆ.rand n n α = β (λ = end. β if. i do. α a = m r-ˆ.*/rand i,n 2, β = 2 m χ2 end. stick plot hist count gammarand 2 4 stick plot hist count gammarand Γ(λ = 2 Γ(λ = 3

16 β randomnumbers f (x = B(a, b xa ( x b where, B(a, b = ta ( t b dt betarand(p,p2,n p is λ, p2 is λ 2 stick plot hist count betarand betarand=: 3 : p q n =. y if. (>p *. >q do. b=. n# r=. n# whilst. e. b do. m=. +/b x=. (rand mˆ%p y=. x+(rand mˆ%q t=. >:y z=. (t#x%t#y i=. t#b#i.#b b=. i } b r=. (z+i{r i } r end. else. s%(gammarand q,n+s=. gammarand p,n end. stick plot hist count betarand β(λ = 2, λ 2 = 3 3 β(λ = 4, λ 2 = 6

17 stick plot hist count cauchyrand cauchy random numbers.45.4 NB. random numbers in a cauchy distribution NB. with F(x=.5+(arctan x%o. NB. NB. y = number of trials cauchyrand=: 3 : 3 o. o. _.5+rand y cauchy discreterand ((i.4; ;

18 Erlang Anger Krarup Erlang( Denmark CTT(Copenhagen Telephone and Telegram Jensen 98 CTT 99 The theory o f probability and telephone conversation Erlang British Post Office issue :(

19 3 Reference 22 A A. Discrete Uniform DIstribution P(X = k =, (k =, 2,, n k n=6 A.2 2 B(n, p P(X = k = n k pk ( p n k, (k =, 2,, n B E.Show plot npdf steps plot ncdf steps normal pdf 6 normal cdf B.. Γ gamma ig

20 6 incgam B..2 Beta 4 beta beta ib e_ incbet B..3 others 5.2 bincdf i _. 5 chisqcdf fcdf poissoncdf i

ATM M.Shimura JCD02773@nifty.ne.jp 2003 12 13 JAPLA2003 1 queue ATM ATM queue 1.1 ATM No (Sec (Sec 1 13 37 60 26 28 99 1 25 40 39 143 202 14 88 190 27 1 184 2 170 37 40 130 317 15 121 72 28 48 115 3 101

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1 1.1 p(x n+1 x n, x n 1, x n 2, ) = p(x n+1 x n ) (x n ) (x n+1 ) * (I Q) 1 ( 1 Q 1 Q n 0(n ) I + Q + Q 2 + = (I Q) ] q q +/. * q

1 1.1 p(x n+1 x n, x n 1, x n 2, ) = p(x n+1 x n ) (x n ) (x n+1 ) * (I Q) 1 ( 1 Q 1 Q n 0(n ) I + Q + Q 2 + = (I Q) ] q q +/. * q Masato Shimura JCD02773@nifty.ne.jp 2008 7 23 1 2 1.1....................................... 2 1.2..................................... 2 2 3 2.1 Example...................................... 3 2.2 Script...........................................

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