Malthus 1798 * Allen Kelley Robert Schmidt

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1 Malthus1798 * Allen Kelley Robert Schmidt

2 Bloom and Williamson1998 Kelley and Schmidt2001, Kinugasa, Huang, and Yamaguchi Kelley and Schmidt1995 Kinugasa, Huang, and Yamaguchi2005Kelley and Scmidt

3 89 2 Solow Barro1997Barro and Sala-i-Martin Y/Lgr it = c[in(y / L it ) * - ln(y / L it )] (1) YLitgrc Y/Lgr itin(y / L it ) * 4 1ti (Y / L) * Z it ln(y / L it ) * =a+bz it (2) 2 Kelley and Schmidt2001 Y=f(L, K, H, )YLK H 3Kelley and Schmidt2001, itY it

4 Y/Lgr it =a'+b'z it - cln(y / L it ) (3) a'=acb'=bc Barro1997 Bloom and Williamson1998 Kelley and Schmidt2005 Y/L it (Y / N it )(N / L it ) (4) N4Y /NN /L 4 Y/Ngr it Y/Lgr it + Lgr it -Ngr it (5) 5Y/Lgr 3 35 Y/Ngr it =a'+b'z it - c''ln(y / N it ) + dln(l / N it )+ Lgr it -Ngr it (6) c''=d6

5 Bloom and Williamson1998d=0 Bloom, Canning, and Malaney2000 d=0ln(l/n it ) Z Kinugasa, Huang, and Yamaguchi2005 Barro1997Kelley and Schmidt2001, Kinugasa and Mason2005 Kelley and Schmidt , 1994, Kinugasa and Mason2005

6 92 53 Kelley and Schmidt2005 D D D1D2 515 Kelley and Schmidt2001,

7 Z Kelley and Schmidt

8 Ngr Lgr ln(l/n) ln(n) R P PNgr=-1 PLgr=1 P= -ln(l/n) *** (-5.413) * (1.662) *** (-2.905) ** (-2.236) ** (-2.130) ** (-2.286) (-0.986) *** (-4.992) ** (2.512) ** (-2.430) *** (3.724) *** (2.887) *** (2.984) (-0.431) (-0.140) (-0.618) (-0.918) *** (-2.823) *** (-5.560) (1.470) (-1.447) (0.049) *** (3.153) (-0.094) (0.312) (0.395) (0.253) ** (-2.162) *** (-5.053) ** (2.044) *** (-3.239) *** (3.969) *** (-2.665) (-0.111) *** (2.731) (-0.199) (-0.090) (-0.488) (-0.824) ** (-2.449) *** (-5.073) ** (2.384) *** (-2.609) *** (3.791) (1.520) (-0.745) (-0.614) ** (2.395) (-0.318) (0.135) (-0.241) (-0.511) ** (-2.654) ()1 P0FP PNgr(Lgr)-1(1)Ngr(Lgr)-1(1)F PP=-ln(L/N)ln(L/N)-1 FP***1**5 *

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14 Barro1997Kelley and Schmidt2001, Kinugasa and Mason pp pp http://

15 Barro, Robert J. (1997) Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study Development Discussion Paper No Harvard Institute for International Development. Bloom David E; Canning, David, and Malaney, Pia N. (2000) Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia in Chu, Cyrus and Lee, Ronald eds., Population and Economic Change in East Asia, Population and Development Review, (Supplement) Vol. 26, pp Bloom, David E., and Jeffery G. Williamson (1998) Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia, World Bank Economic Review, Vol.12, No.3, pp Kelley, Allen C., and Robert M. Schmidt (1995) Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change, Demography, Vol. 32, No.4, pp , (2001) Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings, and Perspectives, in Nancy Birdsall, Allen C. Kelley, and Steven Sinding, eds. Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, New York: Oxford University Press, pp , (2005) Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis, Journal of Population Economics, Vol.18, No.2, pp Kinugasa, Tomoko and Huang, Wei and Yamaguchi, Mitoshi (2005) Economic Growth of Regions and Demographic Characteristics: The Comparative Empirical Analysis of the Cases of Japan and China. Paper Presented at the Center of Excellence/ Japan Economic Policy Association Joint International Conference, Awaji, Japan. Kinugasa, Tomoko and Mason, Andrew (2005) Why Nations Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving, Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Hawaii. No Malthus, Thomas (1798) An Essay on the Principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement on Society, with Remarks on the Speculation of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers, London Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2004), World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, km 2 14 / / World Population Prospects The 2004 Revision High variant, Medium variant, Low variant 2004Medium variant 2010 Low variant

16 Y L N Y/N Y/ e 0 D1 D ( ) () 1000/km 2,,,,,, ln(l/n),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ln(l/n),,,, ()

17 103 Y/Ngr Ngr Lgr ln(l/n) Y/Ngr Ngr Lgr ln(l/n) Y/Ngr Ngr Lgr ln(l/n) Y/Ngr Ngr Lgr ln(l/n) Y/Ngr Ngr Lgr ln(l/n) (187) (28) (28) (16) (24) (46) (7) (7) (4) (6) (47) (7) (7) (4) (6) (47) (7) (7) (4) (6) (47) (7) (7) (4) (6)

18 Y/ ln(l/n) Y/ ln(l/n) Y/ ln(l/n) Y/ ln(l/n) (24) (20) (16) (31) (6) (5) (4) (7) (6) (5) (4) (8) (6) (5) (4) (8) (6) (5) (4) (8) ()

20 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JAPAN TOMOKO KINUGASA Japan is now facing an aging society with fewer children and the population began to decrease in The economic implication of demographic change in Japan has gained public attention. However, empirical research on demographic change and economic growth in Japan have not been done sufficiently, and there is plenty of scope for research on this topic. We analyze demographic effects on economic growth empirically using panel data of Japanese prefectures from Our empirical analysis is based on the conditional convergence hypothesis. As demographic variables, we include life expectancy at birth, the population growth rate, the growth rate of the labor force, the young dependency rate, the old dependency rate, population size, and population density. A large population size can accumulate knowledge, and facilitate division of labor and competition. Empirical analysis shows that population size has a large positive effect on economic growth. Therefore, a decreasing population may damage economic growth seriously in Japan. An increase in life expectancy promotes economic growth to a great extent. Life expectancy in Japan is quite high and is expected to increase slowly in the future, so we should take advantage of this favorable opportunity. We estimate demographic effects on economic growth during the sample period and in the future based on regression analysis. During the sample period ( ), Japan took an opportunity of demographic dividend ; slowing population growth and a decreasing young dependency burden benefited economic growth in Japan. However, in the near future, a decreasing labor force and a decreasing population will cause economic stagnation. Although increasing life expectancy and decreasing young dependency burden affect economic growth favorably, the total effect of demographic change on economic growth will be negative after 2020.

Kobe University Repository : Kernel タイトル Title 著者 Author(s) 掲載誌巻号ページ Citation 刊行日 Issue date 資源タイプ Resource Type 版区分 Resource Version 権利 Rights DOI

Kobe University Repository : Kernel タイトル Title 著者 Author(s) 掲載誌巻号ページ Citation 刊行日 Issue date 資源タイプ Resource Type 版区分 Resource Version 権利 Rights DOI 成人寿命の増加と国民貯蓄率に関する実証研究 (An Empirical Analysis on Increase