Paper A Forecast of World Primary Energy Ichizo Aoki Greenwood Office E-mail:iaoki@gakushikai.jp Abstract Up to industrial revolution, we had used renewable energy such as wood for our daily use. Start of fossil fuel utilization bought us comfortable life style and rapid growth of our population, but with adverse effect of climate change. It seems that we have used almost half of recoverable oil reserves and a part of natural gas. Regardless of climate change, it is evident that we have to come back to renewable energy again in the next century. In making forecast author has investigated possible alternative energy such as nuclear and renewable energy including biological fuel, hydraulics, wind, solar cell and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). In utilizing fossil fuel, carbon capture and sequestration is considered as important option for avoiding climate change. 1

1. 2. 3. 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4. 4.1 4.2 4.3 2 5. 6. 2

1972 MIT [1] 1992 [2] GDP GDP 2040 100 2070 1% GDP 0.6% 2030 80 2070 2140 1992 1850 1980 fraction f (f/(1-f)) [3] 3

-1 2009 1980 2000 2,000 2150 4

1838 K 1956-2 -2 N K F = N/K S f = df/dt = rf(1-f) 5

f/(1-f) 2000 IEA; International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2,000 K H (R/P) BP (2005) IAEA 2007-1 -1 BP Zcal=zetta cal=1021cal 1998 6

H 1.8 2005 22.5-3 3 1 [4] 3-3 2020 340 1.7 15 4-3 1.8 3-2 2014 15.5 /kwh 15.3 25.4 /kwh 1.8 IEA 2000 f=0.35 2000 f=0.35 2007 346 181 2043 2000 2.3 m3/y 6.5 m3/y 7

2000 2.8 [5] IEA 2000 f 0.21 40 1.8 f 2000 2.8/1.8 = 1.5 f = 0.21 x 1.5 = 0.3 2040 2014 59% 1,500 o C LNG -2 9.3 /kwh 11.5 /kwh 2014-2 6.9 /kwh CCS; Carbon Capture and Sequestration -2 CCS 2014 14.9 /kwh DME CCS CCS -3-3 2.3 3.2 30% 23% 46% 38% fi=1 8

235 0.72% IAEA; International Atomic Energy Agency 85 270 675 235 239 60 235 239 [6] -2 2014 27.1 /kwh 15.3 25.4 /kwh 2014-2 11.5 /kwh 15.5 /kwh 1,2 2 300 IEA 2000 f 0.067 436 150 OECD 2050 1,500 3.4 9

50 2.4 f 2000 1.4 0.1 10 2040 CSP; Concentrated Solar Power ( ) 1.37kW/m 2 127,400,000km 2 1.740 10 17 W 1 10,362 kwh 6,685km 2 106 14% 38 km 2 1.8% 66% 100% 1% 25% 14% IEA 2000 f=0.1 1% 5-15% 10

IEA 2000 f=0.023 f 2014-2 80% 10.2 /kwh 2008 1.14% 0.44% 2014-2 9.6 /kwh LNG 9.3 /kwh 14% 1.8% -4-4 2005 2006 1/100 100 150 /W 7% 12% 2009 16% 1 /W - - -CIGS 2011 11

2014-2 15.3 25.4 /kwh 2013 40,000MW 412 kwh/y 0.067% 0.026% 2020 2,800 kwh 2.8% 1.1% 2030 5,300 kwh 5.2% 2% Concentrating Solar Thermal Power, CSP 2030 f=0.03 2000 f=0.007 CSP 40 1970 NEDO CSP 10 2008 CSP 16 20 CSP -2 24.3 /kwh 6 16 /kwh 3 13 12

2002 2014 2014 70$/bbl 50$/t LNG 9.9$/MMbtu 18$/lbU -2 80% -2 11.27 /kwh 23 /kwh 0.38 /kwh 11.4 /kwh 3.4 /kwh -2 13

11.3 /kwh CSP CCS -3 DME Market Price Heating value Fuel cost per heating value Power cycle Eff. Cost per power Gasoline hybrid 164,000yen/ton (120yen/l ) CNG hybrid - kcal/g yen/kwh % yen/kwh 40,000yen/ton CIF 10.6 9 34 26.5 13.3 2.59 34 7.6+7=14.6 LPG hybrid 100000yen/ton 12 7.16 34 21 DME diesel hybrid 240$/ton CIF 8.8 2.35 34 6.9+7=13.9 Methanol hybrid 200$/ton CIF 5.6 3.07 34 9+7=16 Ammonia hybrid 200$/ton CIF 5.37 3.2 34 9.4+7=16.4 Electric vehicle - - battery: 35 to 59 grid power 23-3 battery 85, motor 98 35 to 59+23/0.83=62 to 86 14

1970 f 1980 2000 2000 f =0.35 0.21 0.067 0.023 0.1 / 0.007 2,000 2150 2005 f=0.3 2040 f=0.3 2040 f=0.1 2000 0.07 2 CSP -5 2000 IEA 3 15

2-5 f -1.1 2000 2000 2040 2040 100 index -6 BP 1.5 3 1.8 1.7 BP 2.5 3 IAEA 2 BP CSS 16

2000 2.8 3.4 2030 2010-7 BP 1.5 BP 2, BP IAEA 1.5 3 1.8 1.7 3 2000 2.8 3.4 2,100-7 17

BP -8 2050 BP 2 BP 3 BP 1.5 IAEA 2 3 2000 2.8 3.4 2,100-8 2 4 18

(1) (2) (3) (4) -9-9 6. 19

IEA NEDO ECOH LNG ULVAC Seven Mile Beach File http://www.asahinet.or.jp/~pu4i-aok/ [1] Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadowa, Jorgen Randers, William W. Behrens. The Limits to Growth, A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, (1972) [2] 1992 5 [3] Nebojsa Nakicenovic "Energy Strategies for Mitigating Global Change IIASA Jan. (1992) [4] Colin Cambell, Jean Laherrère End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American March 1 st., (1998) [5]Mohr, SH and Evans, GM, Model Proposed for World Conventional, Unconventional Gas, Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 47, 17 December (2007), p. 46 [6] Klaus Traub, Atomenergie unverantwortliche Bedrohung, marginale Potenziale, 20