2013 2012 1 2012 Changes in American Religious, Political, and Social Life: The Evidence of the Results of the 2012 Presidential Election Kazunobu Horiuchi Summary President Barak Obama was reelected in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election to serve a second four-year term. The major elements that allowed the incumbent to win reelection include the support he received from members of minority groups such as Hispanics and the so-called Millennial generation young adults aged between 18 and 29 that was especially important in such swing States as Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Having provided a systematic analysis of the voting behavior of religious and ethnic groups, age cohorts, and supporters of political parties, this paper will focus on the newly apparent trends revealed by the data examined, such as the decline in numbers of the majority group: the increasing size of ethnic minority groups including African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Asian Americans; the succession of the generations; and the increasing number of the so-called unchurched Americans. 2012 303 206 50 48 55 45 194 233 split government 1980
2 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 1 2012 4 65 50 64 X 30 49 18 29 1 2012 11 7 2 1 42 57 3 2012 30 69 44 54 95 5 2 3 1 6 50 48 40 59 1 Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web; Post-election Survey: Changing Religious Landscape Challenges Influence of White Christian Vote, Public Religion Research Institute, November 15, 2012. Web.; Latino Voters in the 2012 Election, Pew Hispanic Center, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 2 How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis, Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web.
2013 2012 1 3 2000 2004 2008 2012 08 12 48 48 48 51 53 46 50 48 3 42 56 40 59 45 54 42 57 3 35 63 32 67 34 65 30 69 4 n/a n/a 21 79 26 73 20 79 6 n/a n/a 44 55 44 55 44 54 92 7 86 13 94 4 95 5 1 50 47 47 52 54 45 50 48 4 45 52 43 56 47 52 40 59 7 65 33 65 33 72 26 75 21 3 79 19 74 25 78 21 69 30 9 62 28 74 23 73 22 74 23 1 61 30 67 31 75 23 70 26 5 n/a n/a 19 80 n/a n/a 21 78 n/a How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 75 21 3 3 69 30 9 3 3 74 23 70 26 5 2004 21 78 2 59 39 62 34 3 3 1 4 3 How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis, Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 4 Ibid.
4 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 2 2000 2004 2008 2012 08 12 48 48 48 51 53 46 50 48 3 39 59 39 61 43 55 39 59 4 36 63 35 64 43 55 36 63 7 40 57 41 58 43 55 41 58 2 / 53 43 53 47 57 42 55 43 2 51 46 49 50 53 46 55 44 2 54 42 54 45 59 39 56 42 3 61 32 62 36 67 30 62 34 5 How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 3 2000 2004 2008 2012 08 12 54 54 54 53 1 45 42 42 39 3 n/a 21 23 23 n/a 20 19 16 3 6 8 9 9 26 27 27 25 2 21 20 19 18 1 3 4 6 5 1 4 3 2 2 6 7 6 7 1 9 10 12 12 How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Researc Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 3 3 2 1 1
2013 2012 4 2008 2012 2008 2012 53 46 50 48 5 47 47 49 48 45 52 53 53 56 43 55 44 74 72 43 55 39 59 13 13 95 4 93 6 9 10 67 31 71 27 18 29 18 19 66 32 60 37 30 44 29 27 52 46 52 45 45 64 37 38 50 49 47 51 65 16 16 45 53 44 56 32 32 9 90 6 93 39 38 89 10 92 7 29 29 52 44 45 50 Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 5 48 49 38 G. W. 53 Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 2 4 2012 2008 5 5 Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web.
6 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 5 1 4 1 6 72 28 2008 74 2 2008 26 2 4 82 4 39 59 2008 4 4 15 4 17 3 7 4 18 29 6 6 4 8 6 60 36 9 6 6 4 6 66 61 3 3 7 6 10 6 Ibid. 7 Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web.; Latino Voters in the 2012 Election, Pew Hispanic Center, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 8 Young Voters Supported Obama Less, But May Have Mattered More, Pew Research Center for People & the Press, Pew Research Center, November 26, 2012. Web. 9 Ibid. 10 Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web.
2013 2012 6 2008 2012 53 45 50 47 18 29 66 32 60 36 30+ 50 49 48 50 7 51 47 50 49 18 29 61 37 66 32 30+ 50 49 47 52 52 46 50 48 18 29 61 36 62 35 30+ 50 48 48 50 55 44 52 47 18 29 65 35 62 35 30+ 53 46 49 50 52 47 51 48 18 29 60 39 61 36 30+ 50 49 49 50 Young Voters Supported Obama Less, But May Have Mattered More, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Pew Research Center, November 26, 2012. Web. 3 4 2012 7 1960 85 2011 63 2050 5 47 11 2008 11 Paul Taylor and D Vera Cohn, A Milestone En Route to a Majority Minority Nation, Pew Social & Demographic Trends, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web.
8 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 85 63 7 1960 2011 2050 47 3.5 17 29 11 12 13 0.6 Paul Taylor and D Vera Cohn, A Milestone En Route to a Majority Minority Nation, Pew Social & Demographic Trends, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 5 9 1960 2011 2050 81980 2012 80 70 60 50 56 61 69 61 72 62 58 67 71 40 30 20 10 35 37 30 25 21 40 35 31 27 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Latino Voters in the 2012 Election, Pew Hispanic Center, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 2007 2050 47 52 2004 1960
2013 2012 9 3.5 2011 17 2050 29 12 8 1980 2012 13 1980 5 2012 71 44 9 14 9 25 7 8 40 13 17 13 18 10 2 16 1 9 7 12 3 18 29 35 61 12 11 12 13 0.6 5 9 13 Latino Voters in the 2012 Election, Pew Hispanic Center, Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012. Web. 14 Robert P. Jones, Daniel Cox, and Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Looking back at the Election, Public Religion Research Institute, November 15, 2012. Web. 4 18 29 30 49 50 64 65 8
10 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 9 18 29 35 12 9 5 11 11 6 11 25 8 13 13 10 16 9 7 30 49 17 22 17 15 3 8 14 5 50 64 11 29 13 19 5 9 9 4 65 8 28 19 22 6 6 7 4 7 40 17 18 21 12 3 0 50 100 Robert P. Jones, Daniel Cox, and Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Looking back at the Election, Public religion Research Institute, November 15, 2012. Web. 39 11 11 6 11 65 8 28 19 22 77 23 6 6 7 4 65 1980 20
2013 2012 11 10 5 15 2007 15.3 2012 19.6 4.3 4,600 5 5 5 5 2 3 11 18 29 32 16 17 1960 18 19 20 21 15 Nones on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, October 9, 2012. Web. 16 Ibid. 17 68 18 37 0.8 1.2 2.3 18 Bryan Wilson, Religion in Secular Society, London: Penguin Books, 1966. 19 Thomas Luckmann, The Invisible Religion: The Problem of Religion in Modern Society, MacMillan Publishing Company, 1967; Peter L. Berger, The Sacred Canopy: Elements of a Sociological Theory of Religion, Garden City, New York: Doubleday & Co., 1969. 20 José Casanova, Public Religions in the Modern World, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1994. 21 S. Bruce, ed., Religion and Modernity, London: Oxford University Press, 1992.
12 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 10 2007 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 07 12 78 77 77 76 75 73 5 53 52 51 51 50 48 5 21 19 20 19 18 19 2 18 18 17 17 17 15 3 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 23 22 23 23 23 22 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 5 5 6 +2 15.3 16 16.8 17.4 18.6 19.6 +4.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 +0.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.6 3 3.3 +1.2 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 +2.3 2 2 2 2 1 2 100 100 100 100 100 100 Nones on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, October 9, 2012. Web. 11 32 67 1 18 30 21 77 2 50 65 15 84 1 9 90 1 0 50 100 Nones on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, October 9, 2012 Web. 2 22 22 Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart, Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004, p. 15, pp. 216 9.
2013 2012 13 1950 20 30 7 23 24 23 Robert Wuthnow, After the Baby Boomers: How Twenty and Thirty Somethings Are Shaping the Future of American Religion, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007: pp. 20 50, 69 70, 230 32. 24 Religion Among the Millennials, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, February 17, 2010. Web.
14 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 1980 H G W 20 G W 25 1991 7 2000 14 1990 3 4 26 67 27 2010 69 42 44 59 64 28 47 29 NBC 2011 7 2010 30 25 25 Michael Hout and Claude S. Fischer, Why More Americans Have No Religious Preference: Politics and Generations, American Sociological Review, 2002, Vol. 67, April, pp. 165 90. Web.; David E. Campbell and Robert D. Putnum, God and Caesar in America: Why Mixing Religion and Politics Is Bad for Both, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2012, pp. 34 43. Web.; Nones on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, October 9, 2012. Web. 26 Michael Hout and Claude S. Fischer, Why More Americans Have No Religious Preference: Politics and Generations, American Sociological Review, 2002, Vol. 67, April, p. 188. 27 Nones on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, October 9, 2012, p. 23. Web. 28 The Tea Party and Religion, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, February 23, 2011. Web. 29 Robert P. Jones, and Daniel Cox, Religion and the Tea Party in the 2010 Election: An Analysis of the Third Biennial American Values Survey, October, 2010. Web.
2013 2012 15 1991 22 2008 38 2011 80 18 29 40 3 32 30 3 2005 5 31 67 3 70 32 2012 30 David E. Campbell and Robert D. Putnum, American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us. New York: Simon and Shuster, 2010, p. 121.; David E. Campbell and Robert D. Putnum, God and Caesar in America: Why Mixing Religion and Politics Is Bad for Both, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2012, pp. 42. Web. 31 19 1 2011 75 90 32 Nones on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation, The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Pew Research Center, October 9, 2012, p. 23. Web.
16 RJIS Vol. 21, No. 1 4 4 2010 1980 49 43 5 ABC DC 9 70
2013 2012 17 1831 M.A. 2005 ; 2008 2010 Happiness and Virtue Beyond East and West toward a New Global Responsibility, Tokyo: Tuttle Publisher, 2011