目次

Minimum required for a Superpower Capabilitiesbased force structure Minimum required to maintain organizational health Rep. Les Aspin, Chairman of House Armed Service Committee,National Security in the 990s: Defining a New Basis for U.S. Military Forces, before the Atlantic Council of the United States, News Release of House Armed Service Committee, January 6, 992. 2000 6 4

0 9909

990 2 995 25% 994-99 FY994-99 Defense Planning Guideline 92 The Regional Defense Strategy The Base Force 4 9 2 Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to the President and Congress Annual Report(Washington, DC: USGPO, January 99), Appendix E, pp.-4. Annual Report, January 99, p.. 4 992 Annual Report (The Regional Defense Strategy) 9 Defense Strategy for the 990s : The Regional Defense StrategyDefense Strategy for the 990s

strategic depth 5 6 the Rogue states doctrine rogue state nuclear outlaw 990 outlaw regime 7 8 5 Annual Report, February 992, pp.2-. 6 Ibid., p.5. 7 Michael Klare, Rogue States And Nuclear Outlaws: America s Search for a New Foreign Policy (New York: Hill and Wag, 995), pp.24-28. 998 40-42 8 Defense Strategy for the 990s, p.2.

9 0 2 9 Ibid., p.4. 0 Ibid., p.6. Annual Report, January 99, p.00. 2 Ibid., p.6.

990 206.90 2.80 75.06 8 0 58.29 546 5 2 9.67 995 65.0 90.60 5.60 2 8 2 5.00 40 2 2 5.90 5.9 24 2 Source: Annual Report, January 99,p.27. 4.70 5 9909525% 995 90 8 2 26

994-99 7+/454 6 482 4+2/54 5+/64 52 NATO 2 89 7 54 28 9 6 70 57 22 2 7 200 Source: Patrick E. Tyler,7 Hypothetical Conflicts Foreseen by the Pentagon,The New York Times, February 7,992.

9905 4 Patrick E. Tyler,7 Hypothetical Conflicts Foreseen by the Pentagon,The New York Times, February 7,992. Klare, Rogue States, pp.99-0, 25-0 William W. Kaufmann, Assessing the Base Force: How Much Is Too Much? (Washington, DC : The Brookings Institution, 992), pp.48-72 4 Eric Schmitt,Pentagon Plans Big Budget Cut, Saving Billions,The New York Times, August 0,992.

65.0 90.60 24.7 66.6.2 69. 40.9 90.4 57.5 9. DBP 20 65 F2 F 200 0 70 2 6 2 8 2 8 2 9 6 0 6 8 7 6 4+/ 6 9 4 2 2 2 40 89 5 220 20 6 50 290 40 8 50 40 40 2 50 40 50 5 82 27 40 0 47 260 84 7 85 42 7 6 00 9 5 6 4 8 6 0 8 9 7 7 2 4 2 0 0 Source: Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to the President and the Congress, February 992, p.25, and Annual Report to the President and the Congress, January 99,p.27, p.47. Les Aspin, An Approach to Sizing American Conventional Forces for the Post-Soviet Era; Four Illustrative Options (February 25,992), Briefing Chart,. Paul Taibland and Steven Kosaik, An Affordable Long-Term Defense (Defense Budget Project,99), p.6( DBP). William Kaufmann, Assessing the Base Force: How Much Is Too Much? (The Brookings Institution, 992), p.82, 89. Lawrence Korb,Real Defense Cuts and Real Defense Issues,Arms Control Today (May,992), P.7. 995 997 DBP 999 997 995 72 DBP

5 99 9-92 6 992 7 90 Iraq Equivalent 5 Klare, Rogue States, p.40, 55 6 Ibid., pp.97-98, 2-24 7 Rep. Les Aspin, Chairman of House Armed Service Committee,An Approach to Sizing American Conventional Forces For the Post-Soviet Era: Four Illustrative Options( News Release of House Armed Service Committee, February 25,992), pp.2-.

8 9 Basic Desert Storm Equivalent 20 2 989 2 22 DBP 8 Ibid., pp.9-. 9 Ibid., p.8. 20 24 70 Ibid., p.5. 2 Ibid., pp.20-22. 22 Ibid.,p.26.

2 force structuring approach DBP DBP 999 0 2,000,000 24 F2F F2F 25 55 2 Paul Taibland and Steven Kosaik, An Affordable Long-Term Defense (Washington, DC: Defense Budget Project, February 99), p.6, A-4, A-5, 24 Kaufmann, Assessing the Base Force, p.82-89. 25 Lawrence Korb,Real Defense Cuts and Real Defense Issues,Arms Control Today (May, 992), pp.5-9.

8% 0 % 0 28% 4% 40%0020% 2%46%9%50%46% 28% 59% 50% 67% 60% 29% 0 5,000 5,000 26 GDP% GDP5.5% C4.5% A.7% GDP%999 0 224 A 2,000 26 Dov S. Zakheim and Jeffrey M. Ranney, Matching Defense Strategies to Resources: Challenges for the Clinton Administration, International Security, Vol. 8, No.,(Summer 99), pp.5-78.

DBP DBP 27 CD DBP 27 Don M. Snider, Strategy, Forces And Budgets: Dominant Influences In Executive Decision Making, Post-Cold War, 989-9 (Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, February 99), pp.2-.

99 Bottom-Up Review of Defense Needs and Program 9 0 28 BUR BUR BUR 29 building blocks of forces BURBUR Major Regional Conflicts: MRC 28 Les Aspin, Secretary of Defense, Report On The Bottom-Up Review (Washington, DC: USGPO, October 99). BUR 29 BUR, p.4.

MRC 0 BUR BUR MRC MRC BUR / 0 0 00 20 2 BUR 999BUR999 BUR 0 Ibid., p.. 2000 9 rogue statesstates of concern http:secretary.state.gov/www/statesment/2000/ 00069.html 2 Ibid., p.9.

BUR 990 999 99 999 4075 00 4 08 2,0004,000 5,500 2,200,000,500 APC,0005,000 7,500 2,900 2,550 2,500 MRL 2,000,000,700 2,00 9,200 0,00 500,000 689 6 72 59 00200 8 8 82 2 50 0 0 26 26 00000 6 6 5 0 Source: Les Aspin, Secretary of Defense, Report on the Bottom-Up Review October99,p.. The Military Balance 990-99,pp.05-06. The Military Blance 992-99, pp.52-5. The Military Balance 999-2000, pp.-5, pp.9-94. MRC BUR nearly simultaneously MRC MRC MRC BURMRC 4 BUR 0 MRC Ibid., p.9. 4 Ibid., pp.22-25

MRC MRC MRC MRC 5 BUR 6 0 MRC5 0 BUR 7 BUR BUR MRC MRC MRC MRC MRCBUR MRC99 5 Remarks by Secretary of Defense Les Aspin to The U.S. Air Force Senior Statesman Symposium, Andrews Air Force Base, MD, June 24, 99, mimeograph. 6 BUR, p.5. 7 997 98 99

8 win-hold-winwinlose-losewin-hope-winwin-hold-oops 9 40 * MRC MRC MRC (win-hold-win) MRC (win-win) ** MRC Source: Report On The Bottom-Up ReviewWashington, DC: USGPO, October 99, p.0. PGM C74,000 8 Michael R. Gordon,U.S. Military May Take Wars One at a Time,The New York Times, May, 99. 9 Barton Gellman and John Lancaster, 2-War Strategy: General FearWin-Hold-WinIs Really Win-Lose-Lose, International Herald Tribune, June 8, 99, and Dov S. Zakheim,Win-Hold-Win Deserved To Be Buried Long Ago, International Herald Tribune, June 24, 99. 40 2

BUR MRC win-win BUR 995 99 90 0% BUR FY999 44.50 89.0 47.50 0 8* 7.40 FY995 FY999 FY2000 52. 96.50 5.00 2 8 7.40 9.04 87.70 48.00 0 8* 7.22 8.48 86.5 48.90 0 8* 7.40 9.40 0-46 45-55 0 7.50 7 4.92 7 85 0 40.0 8 7.2 5 66 0 6.59 8 7.8 4 56 0 6.09 2+ 7+ Source: Annual Report, February 995, p., C-., Annual Report, April 999, p.40, D-2 BUR BUR BUR99 4 4 Federal News Service, September, 99

99 MRC BUR 5 0 BUR BUR BUR BUR BUR

BUR BURMRC 0 994 MRC MRC BUR BUR MRC BUR 42 BUR 0 2 0 the mostfamiliarthreat the mostcomfortablesecurity challenges 4 2 BUR 42 David Callaban,Saving Defense Dollars, Foreign Policy, No.96, Fall 994, pp.94-2 4 Andrew F. Krepinevich, The Bottom-Up Review: An Assessment (Washington, DC: Defense Budget Project, February 994), p.22, 26.

Streetfighter Scenario BUR 44 BUR 45 BUR 0 2055 2 997 Report of Quadrennial Defense Review QDR 205 Major Theater War: MTW 46 BUR MRC 99 BUR MRC RMA 47 National Defense PanelMRC 44 Ibid., pp.4-44, 6. 45 Michael O Hanlon, Defense Planning For Late 990s: Beyond the Desert Storm Framework (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 995), pp.0-4, 50-54. 46 William S. Cohen, Secretary of Defense, Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review (Washington, DC: USGPO, May 997), p.2. QDRQDR BUR MRC Major Theater War MRC 47 Ibid., p..

9972 Transforming Defense: National Security in the 2st Century2020 asymmetric threats 48 2020 MRC 20020 49 QDR 5 20 BUR QDR BUR BUR BUR BUR MRC BUR 48 National Defense Panel, Transforming Defense: National Security in the 2 st Century, December 997, pp.-2.ndp Report QDR 49 NDP Report, pp.2-24.

BUR MRC win-win 50 MRC BURMRC45BUR MRC 45 MRC 999MRC 2000 MRC MRC MRC 99 5 MRC 52 BURwin-win 50 Colin Powell, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, 992 Joint Military Net Assessment (Washington, DC: USGPO, 992), pp.4-5. 5 Annual Report, February 2000, pp.8-9. 52 General Accounting Office, BOTTOM-UP REVIEW: Analysis of Key DOD Assumptions (Washington, DC: General Accounting Office, February 995), pp.5-6.

BUR BUR RMA 2 020 RMA MRC BUR 5 BUR MRC 5 998 0 45 89 0 89 98 2 99 5