3 1 2 1 21 1 1941 11 15 1988 586 2 1984 127
1928 3 1931 1933 1936 4 1940 搪 3 1997 53-54 4 1994 249-251 128
5 (Cordell Hull) 1936 1937 6 1939 1940 5 1987 70-72 6 Stephen E. Pelz, Race to Pearl Harbor: The Failure of the London Naval Conference and the Onset of World War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1974), pp. 204-221. 1994 129
7 8 9 10 (Joachim von Ribbentrop) 11 12 (Franklin D. Roosevelt) Henry L. 7 2004 9 27 2 1999 9 96-98 8 1951 77 9 1987 69 10 1987 212 225-226 11 56 12 1991 174 130
Stimson 13 14 15 1 1930 1940 10 92 1000 1939 10 42 14 43 16 44 18 16 1939 7 13 Jonathan G. Utley, Going to War with Japan, 1937-1941 (Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press, 1985), pp. 107-108. 1989 166-167 14 1968 176 15 98 16 PHP 2005 393-402 131
1938 82 15 13 25 4 17 1940 6 9 1941 1 18 19 17 75 18 1979 32 19 Harold Ickes, The Secret Diary of Harold L. Ickes, Vol. 3, The Lowering Clouds, 1939-1941 (New York: Simon and Shuster, 1954), p. 330. 132
20 1941 1941 21 22 2 20 1986 143 21 214 22 Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing, Conflict among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977), pp. 124-127. 1351 1998 9 65-68 133
1941 4 23 1941 7 1 8 (Henry Morgenthau) (Stanley K. Hornbeck) 24 25 23 24 1979 1979 45 25 Utley, Going to War with Japan, p. 78. 124 134
26 27 (Summer Welles) 28 29 30 31 26 72 1997 53-63 27 2001 174 28 1987 406 29 1978 48-49 30 412-421 31 174 135
32 33 1940 7 34 35 1 32 412-421 Michael A. Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War: The Search for Economic Security, 1919-1941 (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987), p. 263. 33 1987 267-272 34 45-46 35 1981 132 1988 293 2004 122 271 136
36 37 38 1940 39 1943 36 120 37 1941 4 20 John Muller, Pearl Harbor: Military Inconvenience, Political Disaster, International Security, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Winter 1991/92), pp. 198. 38 38 39 120 125 137
40 3 1 2 3 2004 34 1941 7 5 6 7 40 2004 17-40 138
41 42 4 10 10 38 112 65 9 3 24 80 56 Stephen Pelz, Race to Pearl Harbor, p.221. 323 1941 5 7 35 20 88 378 180 6 43 1942 7 43 6 44 3 44 1941-17 41 1995 13 42 1985 191 4 Pelz, Race to Pearl Harbor, p. 221. 43 13 318 44 324 139
1942 10 45 46 1940 9 1941 4 47 48 49 45 408-410 429-431 46 191-194 47 79-80 48 78 49 Scott Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, in Robert I Rotberg and Theodore K Rabb, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 325. 140
50 5 1999 331 11 50 2004 235-236 141
51 52 12 53 54 1941 12 8 3 51 1999 189-193 52 (Sir Robert Craigie) 1984 351-381 53 596 54 450 456 142
(unique test) 55 56 55 Stephen Van Evera, Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997), pp. 30-32. 56 Jack S. Levy, Domestic Politics and War, in Rotberg and Rabb, The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, pp. 79-100 143
57 58 59 60 1941 1941 57 Stephen Van Evera, Hypotheses on Nationalism and War, International Security, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Spring 1994), pp. 5-39. 58 Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991). 1910 1994 44-48 59 1993 60 1964 11-28 144
61 62 61 89 62 Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), p. 8. 145
1941 7 2 63 64 1 65 66 63 2006 4 27 14 64 90-91 65 246 66 10 1931 1941 1971 137 146
67 7 2 7 2 67 1991 117 147
68 69 70 71 72 1941 8 73 68 118 69 269 70 70-72 71 118 72 73 263-264 148
4 74 (Scott Sagan) 75 (expected utility theory) (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) 74 Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981). 75 Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, p. 350. 149
76 1 2 77 76 De Mesquita, War Trap, pp. 19-92, esp., pp. 34-36, 46-49, 64-73. 88 1990 2 34-35 77 34-35 150
1 10 90 0.10.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 78 78 Robert Butow, Tojo and the Coming of War (Princeton: Princeton University 151
1 2 3 1 Press, 1961), p. 267. 152
1 2 (Glenn Snyder) (Paul Diesing)(deadlock) 1940 7 41 8 79 1 2 79 Snyder and Deising, Conflict among Nations, pp. 124-127. 153
6 6 : : : : Snyder and Deising, Conflict among Nations, p. 125. 154
0.8 155
80 80 1978 53 156
5 1 157
158